Middle East Inside Line: Lieberman's "Ambiguity" on Dubai Assassination, Netanyahu Denies Iran War Plans, and More

Israel FM Lieberman "Ambiguity" on Dubai Assassination: Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman did not deny Israeli involvement in the killing of Hamas's Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel but said that Israel has a "policy of ambiguity" on intelligence matters and there was no proof Mossad was behind the assassination. Lieberman said, "The Mossad was not behind the assassination of Mahmoud el- Mabhouh, but rather [it is] a foreign organization that is trying to frame Israel."

Middle East Special: “Why Chuckles Greeted Hillary Clinton’s Gulf Tour”
Israel-Russia: Situation Now A-OK on Iran?

Netanyahu "No Iran War": Following a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu --- in response to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's accusation that Israel was "planning a spring or summer war" --- said, "Israel is not planning any sort of war."



Hamas' Tunnel: Haaretz says that Hamas has recently set up 'legal' tunnels, which they use to smuggle merchandise and resources, especially cement and gasoline which have led to an awakening of Gazan factories. The newspaper says Hamas's new policy has hit many "illegal" tunnel owners, with the increase in merchandise leading to sharply decreasing prices and reduced earnings for the "illegal" smuggling industry.

Hezbollah Defiance: Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassen Nasrallah threatened that "if Israel attacks Beirut in the future, Hezbollah will attack Tel Aviv". He said:

If you hit our ports, we will bomb your ports, and if you hit our oil refineries, we will bomb your oil refineries.

It is untrue that we are giving Israel an excuse to launch an aggression on Lebanon. Israel does not need an excuse, and if it needs an excuse it creates one.

Israel has been living in a state of crisis on the strategic level since the July 2006 and Gaza wars. It can neither impose peace based on its conditions nor wage war.

Israel-Russia: Situation Now A-OK on Iran?

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to discuss Hamas, the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, sanctions on Iran, and Russian's pending delivery of  S-300 missiles to Tehran.

At the end of the day, both leaders got what they sought. Medvedev did not put himself under any commitment to punish Iran severely but maintained a "threatening" position vis-a-vis Tehran. He  told Netanyahu that Russia will hold off on  delivering the S-300s to Iran. A spokewoman added: "The position of Russia regarding sanctions remains unchanged. [But] if Iran remains uncooperative, no one can exclude the use of sanctions."

Netanyahu was satisfied to return home with the "success" of the deferred delivery of the S-300s, and he ticked another  box in his "efforts to exhaust every possible chance to achieve peace" before "the necessity of applying a pre-emptive strike" against Iran in the future.



Netanyahu also sent another message in Moscow at a dinner meeting with Greek counterpart George Papandreo : "Turkey will go nuclear if Iran becomes so". Netanyahu added he was concerned Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia would soon begin their own attempts to develop a nuclear weapon.

On Hamas-Russia relations, Netanyahu implicitly asked Moscow to limit its relations with the Gazan organisation. A senior source in Netanyahu's entourage said the Israeli leader told  Medvedev, "We are not pleased with your relations with Hamas. But since they exist, we can relay messages on humanitarian issues. Tell Hamas they won't get a better offer from us on the deal [for Shalit, the Israeli soldier held by Hamas]."

So, after some fuss, nothing changed in the position vis-a-vis Tehran. Moscow might use the deferment of the sale of S-300 missiles to urge Netanyahu to stop plans by an Israeli firm to close a major arms deal with Georgia, a proposal leaked by Russian intelligence on Friday. In the long run, if not in the medium-term, Moscow can use its third party role, both with Hamas and with Tehran, to increase its credibility and bargaining power in the region. However, the question is how long can tension between the West and Tehran continue without a breaking point for Russia's search for a more cooperative Tehran?

Middle East Inside Line: US, Russia, & Israel on Iran; Lieberman v. Palestinian Authority; US Congressman "Break Gaza Blockade"

US-Israel Defense Meeting on Iran: The US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, said in Israel on Sunday, "Iran must not acquire nuclear capability". He added: "It [a regional confrontation following a strike on Iran] will be a big, big, big problem for all of us, and I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike... We haven't taken off any option from the table."

Meanwhile, Haaretz says that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will be arriving in Israel within weeks on an official visit.

Middle East Analysis: The Iran-Russia-Israel Triangle

Moscow's Snub to Israel on Iran Missiles: An hour before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plane took off on Sunday, Russian officials said that Moscow sees no reason to delay the sale of the S-300, a powerful air-defense system, to Iran. Vladimir Nazarov, deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council secretary, told Interfax news agency in an interview:

There is a signed contract [for the S-300 missiles] which we must follow through on, but deliveries have not started yet. This deal is not restricted by any international sanctions, because we are talking about deliveries of an exclusively defensive weapon.

On the other hand, according to Haaretz, Russian intelligence officials leaked comments expressing their displeasure with plans by an Israeli firm to close a major arms deal with Georgia.

Lieberman Accuses Palestinian Authority: Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday that "much of the global effort to de-legitimize Israel is supported and sponsored by the Palestinian Authority". He added that the bid to smear Israel in the international community was "partially sponsored by funds Israel is transferring to the Palestinians".

US Congressman "Break Gaza Blockade"US: On Sunday, Rep. Brian Baird, a Democrat from Washington state, spoke to a group of Gaza students regarding the situation in Gaza and said that the United States should break Israel's blockade of Gaza and deliver badly needed supplies by sea. He resembled such an operation to the situation in the post-Second World War and said: "We ought to bring roll-on, roll-off ships and roll them right to the beach and bring the relief supplies in, in our version of the Berlin airlift."

Middle East Analysis: The Iran-Russia-Israel Triangle

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leaving for Russia on Sunday. At his weekly cabinet meeting, he said that he will push Moscow, "an important power and ally", for crippling sanctions on Iran during his meetings with  President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. "If Russia agrees to sanctions, China will find itself alone and may be forced to line up with the Western powers," an Israeli official said.

Middle East Inside Line: “Organ Harvesting” Furour, Clinton in Gulf, Hariri's Death, and More
Israel, Hamas, and Russia: Who is in Bed with the Bear?

Undoubtedly Netanyahu will ask Moscow to freeze its supply of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran and to give full support at the UN Security Council to sanctions. Yet that raises a question from the other side. Given that Russia is involved not only in Israel's Palestinian question but also in Israel's "Hamas problem", on which case is Tel Aviv ready to give concessions?

Then add Iran to the triangle. What might Moscow seek to gain in Middle East at the expense of loosening its relationship with Iran, a relationship which once could have been its spearhead in the region? Will Moscow run the risk of losing a "nuclear-going" Iran or limit its response by not accepting Netanyahu's demands?

Ahh, the risk of going bed with the bear....

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Clashes, Israel to Be "Delegitimized"?; Ceasefire in Yemen

Gaza Clashes: Israel Defense Forces soldiers on Friday opened artillery and gun fire on a group of four Palestinians rigging explosives near the Gaza border. Two of Palestinians were killed. Following the incident Hamas's Khaled Meshal, in an interview with London-based Al Hayat newspaper, threatened that a new conflict would not be limited to Gaza.

Israel Tries to Cut Off Gaza Enquiry: The Jerusalem Post has learned that the response Israel gave to United Nations on the investigations it is conducting into Operation Cast Lead seeks to deter UN action.

"Israel feels the report it gave was a serious, comprehensive, credible and complete answer to the UN secretary-general,” one senior official in the Prime Minister’s Office said.


Meanwhile, according to a report by the Reut Institute, a Tel-Aviv-based think tank, Israel is facing a global campaign of delegitimization from demonstrations on campuses, protests when Israeli athletes compete abroad, moves in Europe to boycott Israeli products, and threats of arrest warrants for Israeli leaders visiting London. The think tank called on ministers to treat the matter as a strategic threat.

Blair as Player in Israel-Palestine Talks?: On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the envoy of the Quartet (the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia), Tony Blair, will "intensify" his work with U.S. negotiator George Mitchell to broker peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.

Yemen Cease-fire: A new ceasefire between the Yemeni government and northern Shia rebels came into forcetoday.

"We have decided to halt military operations in the north-western region … to stop bloodshed, bring peace to the region, the return of displaced people to their villages, reconstruction and achieve national reconciliation," Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh's office said in a statement.