Iran: "Allahu Akbar from the Rooftops" --- The 2009 Photo of the Year

The jury of the 53rd annual World Press Photo Contest has selected this image by Pietro Masturzo as the World Press Photo of 2009:

The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

2150 GMT: A Quiet Night. For the first time in days, a noticeable drop in news and chatter. So we may close shop early and welcome you to a new day in several hours.

1910 GMT: We Take It All Back --- No Rest for Ahmadinejad. Remember how we said (1225 GMT) that Ali Larijani's statement on Iran's uranium programme yesterday --- which could have just as easily been given by the President --- indicated a possible easing of tensions between Ahmadinejad and his conservative/principlist opponents?

Well, forget that. Member of Parliament Ali Motahhari, who has taken the point in the challenge to the President, has resumed the attack, and he has done so in the Larijani-affiliated Khabar Online:

NEW Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
NEW Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
Iran: 22 Bahman's Reality "No Victory, No Defeat"
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz
Videos: The 22 Bahman Protests From Around the World
Iran Document: Interview with Hossein Karroubi (11 February)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 4)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 3)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 2)
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 22 Bahman (11 February — Set 1)
Latest Iran Video: 22 Bahman – TV Coverage
Latest Iran Video: President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 February): Today is 22 Bahman

We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes. The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people's massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance.... The presence of political elite in the rally does not mean there is no longer any criticism or objection towards the regime.

Motahhari declared that the Government must stop banning the press and should release all political prisoners. And he made clear that Larijani's apparent conciliation on the nuclear issue was more of a demand that Ahmadinejad stick to a hard line against the United States:

People expect their governments not to seek compromise with big powers. The government should be honest with people and tell people if it is engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations with big powers. Nor should the government tie Iran's nuclear issue to normalization of ties with the United States.

(English-language summary in Los Angeles Times)


1730 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Update. Hojjatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi takes the podium to sweep up after 22 Bahman. Very much a junior member of the Tehran FP group, he keeps it simple, "The epic [turnout] of the highly dignified Iranian nation was a manifestation of power, solidarity and national unity." And Western powers were disappointed, etc.

1605 GMT: More on Mousavi's Alleged Flight. A relative of Mir Hossein Mousavi has denied the Fars report that he was unable to fly from Tehran to Tabriz, because of crowds protesting at Tabriz's airport (see 1235 GMT).

An EA correspondent adds this twist: the crowds who arrived in Tabriz were not demonstrating against Mousavi but for him. Letting this story out, however, would have undermined the regime's projection of unity and support on 22 Bahman, thus Fars' re-telling of the tale.

1600 GMT: The sites of Tahavol-e-Sabz, Rah-e-Sabz and Kalemeh have been attacked by the Iranian Cyber Army. Rah-e-Sabz is now operating from an alternative site.

1550 GMT: Back With Not One But Two Video Specials. We've got claimed footage of the 22 Bahman attack on Mehdi Karroubi, and Mr Verde offers a detailed reading of an 8+ minute clip filmed in Azadi Square during President Ahmadinejad's speech.

Mr Verde's analysis should also be set alongside a viewing of this footage of Government supporters lining up to get free food and "Sandis" soft drinks, indifferent to the slogans being shouted over the loudspeakers.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0zAutN4MKQ[/youtube]

1255 GMT: In Case You Missed It. On Wednesday, the European Parliament adopted a sweeping resolution on human rights and nuclear issues in Iran. The headline paragraph:

[The Parliament] reminds the Iranian authorities that, in order to develop fruitful relations with the EU (European Union), Iran must guarantee fundamental human rights and respect for the principles of democracy, freedom of expression, and the rule of law, as this is a prerequisite for all countries which maintain political and economic relations with the EU; emphasises that the possible conclusion of a cooperation and trade agreement between Iran and the EU is contingent on respect for these values, Iran's full compliance with UNSC (United Nations Security Council and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) resolutions and the provision of objective guarantees regarding the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme and the cessation of Iran's support for terrorist activities.

1235 GMT: Totally Must-Be-True Story of the Day. Fars News is alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi had to cancel a flight from Tehran to Tabriz last night:

Mousavi, who wanted to fly to Tabriz at 9.30 pm..., was forced to cancel (the flight), because the people of Tabriz, who heard of it in the afternoon, started to pour to the airport and block its doors and access routes. When Mousavi heard of the protesters and their blockade, he decided to withdraw, and authorities asked the people to go. Nevertheless some of them stayed there for hours.... {This is like what] we have seen in Tehran on 22 Bahman, where he met with the people's protests and had to flee.

1225 GMT: Larijani Takes Ahmadi's Hand? Looks like one advantage of the President's shift to his "We Will Enrich Uranium" line is that it puts him in step with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. He declared yesterday:

Even if US President Barack Obama dares to repeat threats of tougher sanction against us as much as ten times, we will still be determined to pursue our enrichment program, but with a much faster pace.

Whenever we make a significant breakthrough, whether it is launching a satellite into space or any other technological or scientific achievement, they quickly demonize it and claim that it is aimed at military or spying purposes. But their problem really lies with the fact that our status in the international scene is changing for the better. They can not bear to see our progress, which is why they want to keep us as an underdeveloped country.

(There are indications that the pro-Larijani Khabar Online, which had been hostile to Ahmadinejad in recent weeks, may have changed its political line. We are monitoring.)

1140 GMT: We've posted another analysis of yesterday's events, Pedestrian's "No Victory, No Defeat".

0955 GMT: Regime Beat Goes On. Uranium enrichment, rockets, satellites. Repeat as necessary.

Press TV has two more pieces this morning. Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi told a rally, ""Today Iran has emerged as one of the top ten forerunners in the field of space research and technology. Our stellar progress in space science is only one of the many benefits derived from the victory of the Islamic Revolution more than thirty years ago." And former UN arms inspector Scott Ritter said on a Press TV broadcast, "I see the truth about Iran's nuclear program prevailing over the fictions" put out by analysts on "Western" media.

0950 GMT: The Green Re-Assessment. One of the key developments of 22 Bahman, beyond superficial judgements (see 0845 GMT), is the re-evaluation amongst the opposition of its political strategy and tactics for protest. Rah-e-Sabz already features an article on the subject.

0910 GMT: Peyke Iran is claiming that more than 1000 people were detained in Tehran yesterday.

0845 GMT: How the Foreign Media Was Blinded (Almost). One of the most striking reports on 22 Bahman by a "foreign" correspondent appears in Slate, written by Jason Rezaian. It's not the headline, "On the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution, the regime drowns out opposition protests", or the reports of the Azadi Square rally that are significant but Rezaian's (sometimes inadvertent) glimpses into the regime's control of the story:

For the first time in months, several members of the foreign press were allowed to cover a public event in Tehran. We all gathered at the foreign-media office of the Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance early this morning to receive credentials for the day, neon-colored vests marking us as press, and chocolate milk. We then boarded three buses and made our way to Freedom Square. I kept my eyes glued to the window waiting to catch signs of protests, but there was nothing....

We were led to a raised platform less than 100 feet from where President Ahmadinejad would deliver his speech. Unfortunately, we weren't allowed to mingle with the crowds, and those near us, mostly teenage girls, were told not to speak with us, but instead to show off their propaganda signs proclaiming "Death to America," "Death to Israel," and "Death to the U.K." Several minutes before the president began his speech, text-messaging service was cut.....

Despite the restrictions, some telling counter-points sneak out. Rezaian estimated "tens of thousands", not million, coming into Azadi. He notes, "Before the president had finished his speech—but after he had made his main points—the crowds began to disperse," as he concludes, "These events...are intended more for foreign-media consumption than for the crowds that are present. Any support won or reinforced among the locals is just a bonus."

Yet, in the end, Rezaian too falls victim to the regime's manipulations. For based solely on his glimpse out his bus window into and out of Azadi, he declares, "Today it seems clear that the street phase is over. The protests have been pushed underground, which means that the green revolution everyone has been waiting for will not be televised."

0830 GMT: The Nukes! Look at the Nukes! And here is one of those signals we mentioned below: the Ahmadinejad Government is putting its foot to the floor to ensure the nuclear issue takes precedence over any internal quibbles. Press TV declares:

"Iran's nuclear chief [Ali Akhbar Salehi] confirms that the country has produced its first batch of higher-enriched uranium for use in a medical-research reactor in Tehran. This comes after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had announced on Thursday that the country has successfully managed to complete production of its first stock of uranium enriched to 20 percent."

0820 GMT: A bit of a late start for us this morning, as we try to assess and move beyond the events of 22 Bahman. We have an insider's view of the day, provided by Mr Azadi from eyewitnesses in Tehran, and two analyses: Mr Verde writes a guest piece for EA on the regime's "Pyrrhic victory", and Scott Lucas considers the political significance for the Islamic Republic, the opposition movement, and especially President Ahmadinejad with his "ugly win".

We have also posted an interview of one of the most prominent post-election activists, Mehdi Saharkhiz, with America's ABC News on social media and the Green Movement.

Now, however, we're moving to the day after 22 Bahman. We're going to be watching for the reactions and manoeuvres of those involved with the political developments. While Iran is now in the midst of a four-day holiday, there may be some signals, not only with the setpiece of Friday prayers but with individuals and groups trying to re-align their positions.

So, not quite back to normal following yesterday's tensions, dramas, and letdowns. But then again, when has the day ever been "normal" since 12 June?

Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square

EA correspondent Mr Verde offers an in-depth reading of this extended clip, filmed during President Ahmadinejad's speech in Azadi Square on Thursday:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxHwpESlpqA[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

The beginning of the footage, which looks like it is taken from the southeast corner of Azadi Square:


The crowd are quiet and relaxed and it looks as if it is footage from any grassy patch where people would sit and “picnic”. As you can see, it shows people getting comfortable for a long wait. This trying to get comfortable is to the point that a someone (around the 00:38 mark) has used a poster of Khamenei and Khomeini to sit on in order not to get dirt on their trousers. (Remember the "disrespecting of Khomeini's photo" allegation over the demonstrations on 7 December?). This is not a political rally to “gouge out the eye of sedition”, as the regime wants to demonstration. It is a (possibly forced) day out for people and their families. And people are doing their best to cope with it, such as the guy who is fast asleep (around the 1:18 mark) or the kids who are playing football (at the 1:29 mark).

There is very little sign of support for the Government or indeed the regime. For example take note of the lady in chador carrying a photo of Khomeini and Khamenei and looking very serious about it (2:19 mark). She has one person accompanying her. No one else seems to be the least bit interested in making any political or ideological point. The same goes for the van with the sound system on the back (2:38 mark). It is being ignored by almost everyone whom it passes. The only people who are taking serious note of it are two kids who are trying to climb the back of it as a prank. (Also note that the van has red Government plates; Government vehicles are supposed to be used for specific purposes for which they are bought, not carrying sound systems in a rally.)

At the 3:14 mark, a man is selling CDs titled “Green Sedition” for 500 toman (just over $0.50). Presumably its contents try to prove that Mousavi, Karroubi, etc. are enemy agents.

From the 3:27 mark, the footage is from the center of Azadi Square. (The podium is always erected on the north side of Azadi Square, so that the photos and videos of the speeches and military parades have the Alborz mountain arrange in the background. At least this was the original idea, but these days all you see in the background is pollution). Again people are not paying any attention to what is being said. They are just trying to pass the time. As the camera moves from underneath the Azadi monument, you could see a few police officers who are holding private conversations and three Red Crescent first-aid personnel who are standing around idly. You will also see a lot of rubbish on the ground which looks like posters that have been discarded. Again not a sign of support. You will also notice that the general flow of the people is away from the podium and towards Azadi Avenue to the east (later footage will show why this is so).

Notice the Red Crescent first-aid assistant holding a poster of Khamenei (4:24 mark). This is an employee who is told to hold the poster, and this sign of “regime” is ignored by everyone around him. It is in fact being ignored by the sign bearer himself (look how he’s just letting it fall over his shoulder while he holds a conversation at 4:31 mark). Even on the north side and so close to the podium you’ll notice people laying down and taking a nap (5:40 mark).

Take note of the place in his speech where Ahmadinejad is saying that, within the next 5 to 10 years, Iran will become the world’s preeminent power (6:08 mark). This is where people would usually say allah-o-akhbar to support this grand statement (allah-o-akhbar in this case is like a standing ovation is the West). But in this case the crowd around the cameraman is completely silent. It looks like no one was listening to what he was saying, but even when the crowd in the distance (those in front of the podium) breaks out into chants of allah-o-akhbar, the people around the cameraman are completely indifferent. It looks like they just don’t care. The sound of the allah-o-akhbar sounds as if it is coming from several thousand people at best.

From the 6:35 mark the footage is of Azadi Avenue. Again people are just milling around, oblivious to the speech and the task of fighting the sedition. At the 6:40 mark, there seems to be an official (I cannot identify him) surrounded by a handful of people. If the support for the government was high, you’d expect people to gather around him in the thousands and to follow him purposefully, not to rush forward to just take a photo (mind you, if I was there, I too would take a photo to take home and ask friends and family, who is this guy?). Compare this to the way Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami, etc. are treated by their supporters.

There is a larger crown milling around in between the stalls (7:16 mark onwards), but again the two men with the posters (7:19-7:25 mark) are completely ignored.

The flag at the 7:27 mark is interesting. Even inside the lion’s den, someone has had the courage to cut out the Islamic Republic emblem from the flag, and someone else has had the opportunity to film it on the ground. No one seems to care that an Iranian flag is just thrown onto the ground, and worse still it is missing the Islamic Republic's emblem. There is no sign of zeal or indeed any belief here.

The only sign of interest of the crowd or any energetic activity is close to the buses(7:47), where either street sellers are offering something or something is being given out for free.

I would take this footage seriously. It goes to show the extent to which “supporters” care about the Government and the regime.

Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?

This is claimed footage of an attack by security forces on an avenue en route to Sadeghieh Square, where Mehdi Karroubi was to join Thursday's rallies:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMx6cEv1aeo[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

Iran Analysis: The Regime's Pyrrhic Victory

Pyrrhic Victory (noun): A victory won at too great a cost (after Pyrrhus, king of Epirus, who suffered staggering losses in defeating the Romans)



Mr Verde writes a guest analysis for EA:

This year’s 22 Bahman anniversary must have been the most widely discussed since the 1979 Revolution, but with disruption of communications in Iran, the flow of information about the events was always going to be slow. So, reserving comment about the actual events for a later date when more information is available, here's a look at the “big picture” for the Islamic Republic.

The regime has demonstrated that, as with other occasions, it can bus in people, or entice them with free food or fear of their government jobs, for the setpiece event. It has also demonstrated that, again as with previous occasions, its security forces are very capable of beating peaceful protestors and dispersing them.

And here comes the problem: this year’s events were less like celebrating a Revolution that freed the country from tyranny and dictatorship and more like a tyrannical dictatorship celebrating its continued survival.



The more one pays attention to the words and actions of the officials of the Islamic Republic, the more it becomes apparent that there is something wrong. From the start of the post-election protests, the regime has been adamant that the protestors are few in number and do not have a real agenda except causing chaos and mayhem. (There were exception when officials, desperate to explain specific situations, talked about millions being on the streets in June, but these were single officials trying to explain away a difficult fact.) If the protestors are so few in number and so insignificant, there is no reason for such heavy security presence. How to resolve this contradiction? Either the regime knows that opposition is widespread or we are witnessing a totalitarian regime in action.

The protests have been ongoing for eight months. This period from June to February has covered almost all of the Islamic Republic’s official occasions where it has traditionally encouraged the population to take part in public events and used them as proof of its popularity and stability. But since 12 June, during each one of these events the regime has had to resort to naked violence to keep people off the streets. There are only two such days left in this year's Islamic Republic calendar that have not been tarnished yet by clashes on the streets: the anniversaries of Khomeini’s death (4 June) and the 15 Khordaad uprising (5 June).

The Islamic Republic is a regime that is built upon ideological symbols and heavily depends on them. Friday prayers are supposed to be weekly affirmation of the public’s support for the regime (both in a religious and a political context). Qods Day in September is to celebrate Islamic Republic’s support for oppressed Palestinians. 13 Aban (4 November this year) was meant to commemorate the killing of schoolchildren by the Shah’s security forces and, perhaps more importantly, the start of the US Embassy hostage crisis (referred to by Khomeini as the second revolution and the Islamic Republic’s proof that it stood up to superpowers). 16 Azar (7 December) is supposed to be the commemoration of student movements that stood up to the Shah’s regime. Ashura (27 December) is to commemorate the uprising by Imam Hossein (the third Shi'a Imam) against tyranny and his martyrdom. 22 Bahman is to mark the victory of the Revolution that brought about the Islamic Republic.

All of these events are now remembered not for their original symbolic importance, but for the fact that the security forces of the Islamic Republic have on every occasion beaten and at times killed peaceful Iranian demonstrators.

Beyond this public demonstration, the regime has managed to discredit many of its notable officials and personalities. Many of the Islamic Republic’s former leading figures are in prison on charges of sedition or acting against national security. Some very senior politicians and activists are treated as the enemy these days. On the eve of Ashura, government thugs disrupted a speech by former President Mohammad Khatami, in in no less a place than the home of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Khomeini. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Prime Minister during most of the eight-year war with Iraq, and Mehdi Karoubi --- revolutionary cleric during the Shah’s regime, former head of the Martyrs’ Foundation, former Speaker of Parliament --- are insulted by regime officials on a daily basis, prevented from taking part in official commemorations and at times shot at with tear gas and beaten.

The problem is not just that the current leadership of Islamic Republic owes all it has to such people. The real problem is that, only eight months ago, two of them (Mousavi and Karoubi) were both passed through the formidable filter of the Council of Guardians as Presidential candidates. The regime is now calling them leaders of sedition.

The question for the regime is: have these people, who have impeccable revolutionary credentials, always been leading an insurrection? If so, how is it that for 30 years the Islamic Republic’s many intelligence organizations and intelligence officials missed this? Or could it be that the state of affairs of the Islamic Republic is such that even loyal servants are forced to protest? No enemy would have been able to undermine the ideological symbols and tarnish the reputation of the Islamic Republic with such efficiency.

The regime is fast losing any claim of being Islamic, popular, just, or merciful. And its showpiece events have become occasions on which its forces are mobilized to attack its own citizens, even as it pours resources into a show for TV cameras so that it --- and some foreign media with superficial view of the events --- can call it a “victory”.

So a Pyrrhic hypothesis: For any regime, especially one that claims to be a popular republic based on Islam, pointing TV cameras at the right-looking crowd while beating the “wrong crowd” with all its might, especially on the anniversary of its formation, is not a victory.