The Latest from Iran (14 February): Step by Step

2140 GMT: The Evin Protests. Once again, families of detainees have protested outside Evin Prison. The demonstrations have been occurring almost every evening in recent weeks.

2030 GMT: US To Israel "No Attack"? A bit of a tangled message from Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, during his visit to Tel Aviv today. On the one hand, Mullen declared, "The outbreak of a conflict will be a big, big, big problem for all of us, and I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike." On the other, he still put out the escape clause for military action, "We haven't taken off any option from the table."

1735 GMT: Blogger and rights activist Ali Kalayi has been released from detention after posting $50,000 bail. Kalayi was arrested last Sunday for publishing a statement alleged to be from the Army in support of the Iranian people.

1710 GMT: Pardon This Interruption. To Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives: you're a blowhard who should be remembered fo r what you did to your first wife rather than any "contribution" to US foreign policy. Especially when your approach to Iran is based on tired 1930s hyperbole rather than any approximation of knowledge.

NEW Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?
Iran: Reading Khabar’s “Conservative” Attack on Ahmadinejad
Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)
Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman
Iran: “Allahu Akhbar from the Rooftops” — The 2009 Photo of the Year
Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

1700 GMT: Today's US Posture. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talks tough as she visits Qatar before going to Saudi Arabia:

Iran leaves the international community little choice but to impose greater costs for its provocative steps. Together, we are encouraging Iran to reconsider its dangerous policy decisions. We are now working actively with our regional and international partners, in the context of our dual track approach, to prepare and implement new measures to convince Iran to change its course

Back in Washington, National Security Council James Jones took the rhetoric to the point of "spontaneous" toppling of the Iranian Government:

We're drawing our conclusions based on non-action on the Iranian part and now moving towards a clear set of sanctions. I think we will get tough as quickly as possible. But you know, whether it happens this week or next week is not the issue.

While the Administration was not advocating regime change, in the context of Iran's internal issues, "very tough sanctions ... could well trigger regime change".

1500 GMT: Presenting 22 Bahman. The "conservative"  Combatant Clergy Association has issued a statement declaring "victory" in Thursday's rallies with the "unity" of the Iranian nation made clear. It asks reformists, even though they have been insulted by their opponents, to join them while maintaining a call to prosecute those who act against the people.

1455 GMT: Big in the USA. President Ahmadinejad's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai may have his problems at home but he's consoling himself that he --- or at least his Government --- is wowing everyone abroad. He has declared that, with its successes in laser technology and stem-cell research, Iran's victory is being celebrated "even in the USA".

1445 GMT: On the International Front. Good to know that Iran and the US can still find common ground. Iranian state media has supportive words today for NATO's offensive against the Taliban in central Afghanistan, with the town of Marjah "a breeding ground for both insurgents and opium poppy cultivation for years".

1200 GMT: Reasons to Remember. Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim, writing for the Los Angeles Times, post an article based on the accounts of detainees at Iran's Kahrizak Prison:

They say the Kahrizak experience has only made them more determined. Few of the ex-inmates have given up their political activities. Hatef says he's trying to prepare for a long fight. When he sees the riot police approach at demonstrations, he draws comfort from a popular slogan that has become a signature of the protest movement.

"Don't be afraid, don't be afraid!" it goes. "We are all together."

1115 GMT: Reasons to Be Cheerful. Babak Dad posts that the Iranian opposition is "tired but praises hope".

And, at the Winter Olympics, Marjan Kalhor has become Iran's first female competitor. Kalhor, who will compete in the slalom and giant slalom, carries the flag for Iran's four-person team in the opening ceremony.

0920 GMT: News Accompanies Analysis. Mr Verde's evaluation of the next steps for the Green Movement is complemented this morning by the call by the Islamic Iran Participation Front to find ways out of the crisis based on the propositions of movement leaders.

0900 GMT: Follow-ups. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises the story of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali, while Jon Swain of the Sunday Times --- with a bit of input from EA --- considers the on-line battle between the regime and opposition.

0805 GMT: EA will be on limited service this morning to celebrate Valentine's Day (yes, we still hang on to a bit of romance here), but we have two analyses and an interview to get the day off to a flying start: Mehdi Karroubi offers his first thoughts after 22 Bahman, we take a look at the re-emerging challenge to the President from "conservatives", and Mr Verde has a searching, challenging consideration of "What Next for the Green Movement?"

The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

2125 GMT: Reports have emerged that two more journalists, Mohammad Ghaznavian and Hamid Mafi, have been detained. They join more than 60 others in Iran's prisons.

2120 GMT: We have posted a snap analysis of what appears to be a serious challenge by Khabar Online, the website linked to Ali Larijani, to President Ahmadinejad. If we are on the mark, then in light of this week's suppression of Ayande News, it will be intriguing to see the Government's response to another location of "conservative" criticism.

2025 GMT: We have posted the text of Mehdi Karroubi's first interview after 22 Bahman.

1955 GMT: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has written the academic colleagues of imprisoned Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, "The espionage charges leveled against Dr. Tajbakhsh are groundless. The State Department is using every available diplomatic tool to achieve Dr. Tajbakhsh's release."

Tajbakhsh was jailed for 15 years in October on charges of espionage. Clinton said in her letter that Kian Tajbakhsh has not been allowed to meet with Swiss diplomats, who serve as the United States' diplomatic representatives in Iran, because Iran considers Tajbakhsh an Iranian citizen.

NEW Iran: Reading Khabar’s “Conservative” Attack on Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)
NEW Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman
NEW Iran: “Allahu Akhbar from the Rooftops” — The 2009 Photo of the Year
Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
Iran: 22 Bahman’s Reality “No Victory, No Defeat”
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz
The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

1940 GMT: A Friday Prayer for All. Neday-e Sabz Azadi reports, via Radio Zamaneh, that the Friday Prayers leader of Zahedan, Molavi Abdolhamid, described the Islamic Republic as a system that gives equal freedom to both pro- and anti-Government groups and allows voices of opposition to be heard: “The people of Iran brought the Revolution to victory to achieve its goals and now they demand the reviewing and realization of those goals.”


1817 GMT: Re-Assessment (cont.). The Los Angeles Times has a wide-ranging, sometimes sprawling review of 22 Bahman. At its heart, however, is an interview with a female journalist in Tehran pondering the next steps for the Green Movement:

Our response was better than getting angry and violent and paying a lot of costs and not gaining anything. I think it was a wise choice to just show the government that we disagree, and not to pay too much of a cost, and not hurry to overthrow the system, and to just consider [the day] as a step in the path that we are on and will continue.

If the government believes that the green movement is finished, they are mistaken. Actually, I don't think that they are that stupid.

1810 GMT: Student activist Vahid Abedini has been released from detention.

1615 GMT: Re-assessing. Setareh Sabety's assessment of the way forward after 22 Bahman, which we featured on Thursday, has now been extended for The Huffington Post.

1610 GMT: More on the Karroubi Attack (see 1452 GMT). The account in Saham News claims that Ali Karroubi, son of Mehdi Karroubi, was taken to Amirolmomenin mosque after his arrest, beaten severely, and threatened with rape.

1600 GMT: Like Rah-e-Sabz, the Green website Tahavol-e-Sabz is on-line on a different address after it was taken down by a cyber-attack on Friday. And Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh is also now back in operation.

1452 GMT: The 22 Bahman Attack. Fatemeh Karroubi, the wife of Mehdi Karroubi, has written to the Supreme Leader to complain about the physical abuse of her son Ali when he was arrested on 22 Bahman  during an assault on the Karroubi entourage. A picture in Karroubi's Saham News shows a bruised Ali Karroubi.

1432 GMT: On the Labour Front. The Flying Carpet Institute passes on an English translation of a Radio Farda interview with the leader of a recently-formed labor organisation at the Isfahan Steel Factory.

1430 GMT: We've posted a separate entry considering US "expert" reaction to the events of 22 Bahman.

1300 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a statement about the events of 22 Bahman.

1145 GMT: And More Clarification. An EA correspondent checks in:

Rah-e-Sabz reports that, contrary to popular perception, Ayande News is run by an ally of Mohsen Rezaei (Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate) and not of Hashemi Rafsanjani. The entire editorial team was indeed arrested on 11 February, and the current notice regarding the arrest of the editor-in-chief, Fouad Sadeghi, was placed there because of pressure by the intelligence forces. Rah-e-Sabz speculates that Sadeghi is resolutely opposed to the transfer of Iranian uranium abroad, which is why the Government might have arrested him.

1125 GMT: Important Correction. Ayande News is not operating "as normal" after the reported detention of all of its staff, including editor-in-chief Fouad Sadeghi, just before 22 Bahman (see 0920 GMT). The site has not been updated since Wednesday, when it noted the detentions and suspension of operations.

1025 GMT: Sure, Sure, Whatever. Political posturing all around this morning. Iranian state media bangs out the "self-sufficient" beat: "Iran's nuclear point man Ali Akhbar Salehi says that much to the West's surprise, Tehran will produce nuclear fuel plates within the next few months."

And American not-really-state-media (The New York Times) serves as Obama Administration "get tough" spokesperson:

With tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions hitting new levels, the United States is mounting a diplomatic full-court press in the Middle East, sending four top diplomats, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, to confer with Arab and Israeli leaders.

The envoys’ visits to Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were planned separately in recent weeks, but they now have a common purpose, administration officials said: to reassure Iran’s neighbors that the United States will stand firm against Tehran, and to enlist other countries in a global effort to put pressure on the Iranian authorities.

0925 GMT: Toeing the Line. Former Presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri has declared, "Even one foe in the Government is too much."

0920 GMT: Claim of Day. If this is true, it is a huge story. Iran Green Voice is asserting, from sources, that all staff of Ayande News were detained on the night of 22 Bahman. Ayande is not "reformist" but affiliated with Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Ayande is on-line as normal this morning. (see 1125 GMT)

0915 GMT: Free Them. A group of international organizations, journalists, writers, and publishers have written an open letter to the Supreme Leader demanding freedom for at least 60 imprisoned journalists and writers in Iran.

0910 GMT: More Numbers. Ebrahim Nabavi writes, "According to eye-witnesses, the government insists on the fact that four million loudspeakers participated in 22 Bahman."

0845 GMT: The Numbers on 22 Bahman. The Newest Deal, using Google's eye-in-the-sky imagery of Azadi Square on Thursday, offers a concise, effective repudiation to the official claims of "millions" supporting the regime on the day.

0755 GMT: On the International Front. Arms for Iran, sent by a Russian export company,have reportedly been confiscated at Frankfurt Airport in Germany.

Following the European Parliament resolution challenging Iran over internal abuses and its nuclear programme, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has sharply condemned human rights violations in Iran and demanded harsher sanctions.

And speculation continues as to why Saeed Jalili, Iran's Secretary of the National Security Council and key figure in nuclear talks, had trip to Moscow cancelled last week.

0740 GMT: We began yesterday by looking for reactions to Thursday's demonstrations, especially political re-alignments within the Iranian regime and political re-assessments within the opposition and Green movements.

We got both.

On the "conservative" side, the fightback against President Ahmadinejad's declared victory came late, but it was clear and strong in the statement of the member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ali Motahhari. His interview, published in the Larijani-allied Khabar Online, was a forthright challenge for "both sides" to acknowledge mistakes. That has been standard rhetoric for Motahhari for weeks; what was distinctive was his specific challenge to the Government to stop banning the press and to release all political prisoners.

Yet it was the re-assessment on the opposition side that was most striking on Friday. The let-down of Thursday slowly gave way to a more balanced reaction. That was supported in part by the emerging evidence --- which we had projected in our analyses late on Thursday and early on Friday --- that the support for the regime on 22 Bahman was not as large as first believed and certainly was not as enthusiastic.

Beyond that, however, was an even more important conclusion: hopes for 22 Bahman had been inflated and the opposition approach to the day had been very, very wrong, but this was a tactical failure, not the demise of the Green movement. Tehran Bureau, which had been striking in its pessimism late Thursday, now features an analysis by Muhammad Sahimi which swings back to long-term determination: "There is a new dawn in the struggle of the Iranian people for democracy and the rule of law. The Green Movement must develop the necessary organization and adjust its tactics dynamically in order to make further progress during this turbulent era."

More importantly than any statement from an organisation on "the outside", activists inside Iran have made that assessment. So to the next phase of this crisis.

Iran: Reading Khabar's "Conservative" Attack on Ahmadinejad

EA readers will know the attention we have given to Khabar Online, the website affiliated with Ali Larijani, as a possible outlet for a challenge to the Government. However, tonight --- less than 48 hours after the supposed victory for the President in the 22 Bahman rally --- the poking at Ahmadinjead seems more than blatant.

Follow this: yesterday Khabar featured an interview in which Larijani ally and high-profile member of Parliament Ali Motahhari (pictured) called on the Government, as well as the opposition, to admit mistakes and demanded freedom for all political prisoners and a cessation to bans on the press. Later on Saturday, the Los Angeles Times featured the interview.

The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

So did Khabar recoil in horror that one of the leading newspapers in the US --- you know, where the press is supposedly responsibility for the "foreign intervention" which the Government claims is threatening Iran --- had lifted its pieces to illustrate internal tensions? No, not at all. Instead, Khabar proudly features the LA Times piece.

And here's more. Khabar also highlights, without criticism, the statement of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front claimed that the large numbers at 22 Bahman rallies were due to the Green presence. It has a special feature noting that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is visiting Qatar only a few days after Qatari officials invited Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai to the country. The website surmises that Rahim-Mashai is in secret talks with the US --- despite Ahmadinejad's Friday posture that Iran would enrich its uranium without foreign help --- for a nuclear deal; it backs up that assertion with Motahhari's criticism that the President could be selling out Iranian interests to Washington.

Iran: Mehdi Karroubi's 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)

Mehdi Karroubi answered a series of questions put to him by the Sunday Telegraph of London. Many of his points are familiar; however, this indication of opposition strategy may be significant: "We will ask, in accordance with article 27 of constitution, to have a peaceful demonstration, in order to show the people's support for our movement."

The Sunday Telegraph: Last month somebody fired a gun at you and last week you were assaulted. Are you still in danger?

Mehdi Karroubi: Yes. I'm 73 years old. As a cleric and a close friend of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, I have a legal, national and religious duty to do something for our people.

When I was 25 years old I participated in the revolution alongside Ayatollah Khomeini. Since that time until now I have done what was needed no matter the danger or the price I had to pay.

The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

ST: After the security forces stifled your protests last week, what will be the opposition's new strategy?


MK: At the moment there is no official rally we are asking the people to attend. We will ask, in accordance with article 27 of constitution, to have a peaceful demonstration, in order to show the people's support for our movement.

If they don't let us have that, we will have to try different methods to talk and educate the people about the peace movement and extend it to the whole country.

We want to maintain our peaceful demands in accordance with the constitution. But we don't want the people to pay the high price.

Presently the state shows less tolerance and tries to use violence against the people. Many young people are in prison and have received unacceptable sentences. There is no way to back away from the people's rights. But we have to find a proper way to ask the people's rights and put the revolution back on track, without letting them divert the Islamic republic from its main goals with great cost to the people.

And we will talk to the people about our programme in the near future. Mr Mousavi and I will have a meeting in the near future and will let the people know about our strategy and work. The meeting might be sometime this week.

Our priorities are the release of the many prisoners without any condition and free elections without monitoring by the Guardian Council. The last thing is the creation of a good atmosphere for a free press recognition of the right to criticise. The current atmosphere, dominated by fear and police control must be removed and we must create a situation where all the people come together and present their ideas about the future of the state. It is the people's right to choose. In the view of Khomeini, the most important thing was the vote of the people.

ST: When did you last meet the supreme leader and what did you discuss with him?

MK: The last meeting with the leader was before the June election. We discussed the government's internal problems and foreign policy. Also I criticised president Ahmadinejad's foreign policy and its effect on our national security and our national interests. I also asked about his ideas about the elections and he said: "there is no difference for me between the candidates."

ST: Do you believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the legitimate president of Iran?

MK: There's a difference between legitimacy and reality. In reality he's head of executive power. But in my opinion, legitimate governments must be appointed by the people in fair and widely supported elections. Our constitution also emphasises this point. We recognise him as the head of the government, which controls everything from the budget to municipal and foreign policy. He must provide the proper response in regard to duty.

But our problem with his legitimacy remains. If we want to have a peaceful demonstration, we have to ask permission of the government. We recognise them only as the dominant power, not as the legitimate government.

ST: Have you and the other opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, discussed the possibility of a negotiated settlement with Mr Ahmadinejad?

MK: At the moment we are working on the issue. But the lack of respect and recognition of the people's rights has created many problems inside Iran. We haven't appointed anybody for negotiation with Mr Ahmadinejad, but the most important thing is respect and understanding of the people's needs and rights.

ST: Why have elements of the security forces attacked peaceful protesters?

MK: The political life of some people, including some military men, depends on crisis. They deny the people's rights and try to dominate all Iranian spheres - economic as well as political. They even try to deny our rights under our constitution. In this situation, they try to create crisis and leave the country in crisis. For this reason they don't want the people to follow their rights in a peaceful manner and a peaceful atmosphere.

ST: Do you have any news of the senior reformist politicians who are still in prison?

MK: Many reformist politicians and former members of parliament are still in prison. We hope they will soon be free. Many reformist politicians prefer to be silent because if they're talking they have to go to jail.

ST: You have said that senior clerics are worried about the situation. What will they do about it?

MK: It's true the senior clergy worry about the situation. They worry about the state and future of the Islamic republic of Iran. Iran is now an Islamic state, based on both republican and Islamic ideals. They don't want any damage to the people's belief in Islam. For us, and the senior clergy in Qom, if there is damage to the Islamic state, it is direct damage to Islam. The late Ayatollah Khomeini said that if we receive damage to the state, it's a direct damage to people's view of Islam.

The people in Qom are worried about the future of the state, its stability and also about the spiritual health of Islam among the young generation. There is no contradiction between Islam and human rights in view of many scholars. But in view of the state's behaviour, many people have now started to think there is, and that it is not possible to have both under Islamic laws.

Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman

Of course, snap reaction from the US of this week's events in Iran was unlikely to catch the depth of the developments and the prospects for the future. The disturbing while gleeful response of Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett was to be expected. (And, yes, I use "disturbing" without reservation: have a look at their "analysis" to see how they try to wipe away the post-election detentions, trials, and abuses.) Unsurprisingly, some Bush-era advocates of US power, having embraced the Green movement for "regime change", backtracked when the Government did not fall on Thursday --- Charles Krauthammer pronounced, "The regime has succeeded today, and unless there is some later demonstration of the power of the opposition, it could be a turning point in this process and the one that the regime will celebrate."

However, what is most disturbing is how an analyst like Marc Lynch, normally quite good about Middle Eastern affairs, could issue this declaration after a superficial review of 22 Bahman and the Green movement, "I fully believe that the Iranian regime is more unpopular and less legitimate than ever before -- but just don't see it as especially vulnerable at the moment." It is disturbing not because Lynch is duplicitous; to the contrary, he carries enough weight of expertise and of honesty in his approach for his analysis to race around the Washington network of political columnists as the final wisdom on the subject.


(A similar point could be made about Juan Cole, another influential interpreter of the Middle East and Iran, with his reductionist conclusion: "Ahmadinejad has his Alliance of Builders in Tehran, and is backed by the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij paramilitary, and other security forces. Musavi has the little flashmobs who couldn't, at least on Thursday.")

I understand and sympathise with Lynch's motives --- "We'd all do better if we could focus public discourse less on hopes for regime change and war, and more on the less sexy but more helpful question of how to make a negotiations strategy work" --- but he has fallen prey to the trap of "raised expectations", even as he identifies it in his article. To declare the regime and Government secure, when those who have been watching the situation for months have held to "marathon, not a sprint", is a short-cut based more on analytic expediency than on careful study.

And Lynch's portrayal of the choices is a straw-man to match his reading of events. Pronouncing "regime change" (which is more an option created by those outside Iran, rather than those protesting inside the country) and "war" (which is a remote possibility in the near-future) as the only alternatives to sitting down with the Ahmadinejad Government is just as much a deception as the manoeuvres of the Leveretts or the Bush-era advocates of "down with the mullahs".

(Indeed, Lynch's conclusion puts him alongside the Leveretts, even if his analysis is put much more honestly and thoughtfully than their bang-the-drum advocacy.)

Instead of declaring the opposition dead or peripheral, perhaps one should do it the justice of considering that the best alternative to negotiations with Tehran is simply no grand declarations and "no negotiations". The battle over political authority is one which should be left to Iranians. Conferring legitimacy on a Government that many of them see as illegitimate is an unnecessary intervention; it is adding insult to injury to distort and minimise the "Green movement" in support of that strategy.