Iran Analysis: Khamenei's Not-So-Big Push

No doubt this morning about the big news out of Iran. On Thursday, the Supreme Leader tried to lock down the security of his position once and for all, declaring that opposition leaders “have lost their credibility by denying the results of the elections. They did not surrender to the law and committed a great sin....[They] have stepped down from the rescue ship and have lost their credibility to remain within the framework of the Islamic establishment.”

Iran Follow-Up: Interpreting the Assembly of Experts “The Certainty of the Uncertain”
Iran Analysis: The Assembly of Experts Mystery

So that's an unambiguous warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to shut up, for example, giving up on Karroubi's latest call for a referendum on the Guardian Council and for the regime's permission for mass protest. But Khamenei has made such statements before: he did so just after the June election, before the Qods Day marches in September, and before the Ashura demonstrations in December.


What is distinctive this time is that the Supreme Leader issued his declaration in a meeting with the Assembly of Experts, which had just finished its two-day meeting. The regime blueprint was for the Assembly to add its 86-member weight to a resolution of the crisis; the problem is that, for reasons which will take some time to establish, it did not so. The "statement" published on Fars News condemning the "sedition" of the opposition (was it a draft? a "leak" from a few pro-Khamenei or pro-Ahmadinejad members of the Assembly?) was never officially confirmed.

So, in the absence of that resolution, here was the Supreme Leader's message. It was not the authorisation of the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi (although, if either make a high-profile declaration with further demands and the prospect of a rally, this may change). Despite the insistence that the June election was settled, it was not support of President Ahmadinejad.

It was, to use the language of American football, "Protect Your Quarterback". Me.

Personal security, for the moment, equates to the security of the system of velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy). And, for the moment, that is accepted by all high-profile political figures. For all his ambiguities, Rafsanjani has done somersaults to be unambiguous on this point. Mousavi has never made a direct attack on Khamenei's position. And Karroubi, despite his "Mr Khamenei" statement last month, has ensured that his demands are narrowly focused on certain institutions --- the Iranian judiciary, the Guardian Council, the Presidency --- and not on velayat-e-faqih.

So, Supreme Leader/Quarterback, you're OK. And that is about all that can be settled....for the moment.

The Latest from Iran (23 February): Videoing the Attacks

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Layla Tavasoli and Mohamad Naeimpour of the Freedom Movement of Iran have been released from Evin Prison.

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Another sign of the "conservative" push for changes within the system. The brother of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, has told Khabar Online that the Expediency Council will seek to remove "ambiguities" in Iran's election law. At the same time, Mohammad Rafsanjani denied that the Expediency Council will seek to remove the Guardian Council's monitoring of elections.

NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Videos of the Tehran Dorm Attacks
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Statement on 22 Bahman & The Way Forward (22 February)
UPDATED Iran 18-Minute Video: Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (14/15 June 2009)
New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz
The Latest from Iran (22 February): Karroubi’s Challenge

1840 GMT: WaPo'ed (definition: "declaring an opposition movement dead without evidence and with dubious motives). Just a quick note to folks at The Washington Post: in the past 72 hours, you have distorted a piece by your own Iran correspondent to portray the demise of the Green movement on 22 Bahman and you have run an Associated Press report which declares from thin air:


Opposition forces were left disillusioned Feb. 11 after police and hard-line militiamen snuffed out protest marches to coincide with the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's 1979 revolution. Many opposition blogs and Web sites are increasingly questioning whether Mousavi or other pro-reform leaders have run their course.

Today you run not one but two opinion pieces which call for a "war of necessity" with Iran: Anne Applebaum's "Prepare for war with Iran -- in case Israel strikes" and Richard Cohen's pronouncement, "It may be time for Barack Obama, ever the soul of moderation, to borrow a tactic from Richard Nixon and fight crazy with crazy."

I do hope the poor editing/reporting and war whoops are unconnected, because there's the uncomfortable impression that you're trying to shove the opposition into the corner so you can have a bomb-bomb-bomb showdown with Tehran.

1835 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has shown solidarity with a visit to Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali, who was taken away and beaten on 22 Bahman.

1830 GMT: The Tehran Dorm Attacks. We have a double special this evening with Mr Verde analysing the footage of the assault and with the full 18-minute video of the attack.

1750 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Fereshteh Ghazi offers a useful round-up of news on detainees, "Constant Intimidation; Repeated Charges".

1745 GMT: A Clerical Voice Is Heard Once More. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has spoken up again about the abuses of the Government: “Power is a tool to defend people’s rights and, if rights cannot be defended based on that power, then that power will lose its legitimacy even if some would try to make up legitimacy for it.”

1740 GMT: Full-Court Press. As we predicted this morning, a big day for the regime's propagandists on the "foreign enemies" front: Press TV has another article on the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, this time highlighting his "US-issued passport".

1735 GMT: Yah, Yah, Whatever. More spinning of rhetorical wheels in the uranium enrichment discussions. Iran’s Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, has submitted a letter that Iran is “still ready to purchase the fuel it needs for Tehran’s research reactor”. However, if buying is not an option, “Iran is ready to simultaneously exchange the fuel required for the Tehran research reactor with its low-enriched uranium within Iranian territory if the I.A.E.A. lacks the ability to fulfill its duties.”

In other words, Tehran has re-stated the position held since November, so no apparent breakthrough from the recent Turkish mission to Iran.

The Guardian of London has posted a copy of the letter.

1730 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Thanks to Khordaad 88, we've finally posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's Monday statement on 22 Bahman and the way forward for the opposition.

1640 GMT: Going Off-Script (Economy Watch). But, in a break from regularly scheduled progaganda, Press TV has this surprise:

Iran needs to invest $24bn to $30bn per year in its oil industry to reach the 20-year goals of the country the Head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) says....

[Seifollah] Jashnsaz stressed that Iran needs to attract more foreign investment to keep the oil industry alive. "If we do not make the necessary investment, the harm of the lack of timely investment in the oil industry will be irreversible to the country," he pointed out.

Iran faces an uphill effort to develop its oil and gas reserves because of credit concerns and issues stemming from sanctions backed by Western nations over its peaceful nuclear program.

1630 GMT: No Complications Here. Of course, for Press TV, there are no nuances in today's Rafsanjani statement (see 1335 GMT):

Head of Iran's Assembly of Experts Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has criticized the head of the UN nuclear watchdog over his recent report on Iran's nuclear energy program.

Speaking at the opening of an Assembly of Experts meeting, Ayatollah Rafsanjani said the recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) repeated the previous US accusations against Iran....Ayatollah Rafsanjani said, “It seems all the Western countries were prepared for and informed about such a report, which they welcomed after its release.”

He further criticized the 'failed' US policies in the Middle East, including Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine.

1345 GMT: Before going on academic break, two important points from an EA source:

1. The BBC Persian video of the attacks on Tehran University's dormitories on 15 June is being seen inside Iran, and it is causing much comment and anger.

2. Jundullah Abdolmalek Rigi was captured last week by Iranian forces. Some believe that this morning's regime announcement of Rigi's detention is a reaction to divert attention from the BBC Persian video.

1335 GMT: Non-Surprise of the Day. So Hashemi Rafsanjani launches the two-day Assembly of Experts meeting with this not-very-provocative statement:

Our focal point is clear and that is the constitution, Islam, the principle of the office of the jurisprudent and supreme leadership. There are those who do not recognise these, but that is not the case with the majority of people in our society. It is very important for us to try to safeguard these.

OK, so that Rafsanjani's now-obligatory alignment with the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader. What will be significant is how he uses that to press for changes in the system. Here was a clue: acceptance of
responsibility by those who permitted or carried out post-election abuses:

The events that took place at Kahrizak [with the Supreme Leader's order to close the prison] and the consoling of those who were hurt in these events, or the release of those who were arrested, have been along this axis [of responsibility]. [The Leader] is vigilant that there should be no turmoil.

1330 GMT: Citizen Journalism Alert. It's a convenient coincidence, as we post our special feature on Iran and citizen journalists, that one of the most prominent activists on Twitter has used his/her 50,000th tweet to announce the launch of a new initiative, the Global Freedom Movement.

1200 GMT: Prediction Fulfilled (0645 GMT). Press TV plays out the propaganda line over the arrest of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi:

Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najar told reporters on Tuesday that Rigi was arrested outside the country as he was preparing for a new act of sabotage. He was consequently transferred to Iran.

In a news conference following Rigi's capture Tuesday, Iran's Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi shed light on certain details regarding Rigi's arrest as well as his links with foreign elements.

Moslehi said that Americans utilized an Afghan passport for Rigi, a declaration which adds to already existing evidence on Rigi's links with the US.

Moslehi said that Rigi had contacts with CIA and Mossad and had even met the NATO military chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Afghanistan in April 2008.

According to the minister, Rigi had also contacts with certain EU countries and traveled to them.

1055 GMT: Just before going on an academic break, we have posted a special feature, "In Praise of Citizen Journalists".

1050 GMT: No Comment Necessary. From Reuters:

"No power can harm Iran ... The Iranian nation will chop off the hands from the arm of any attacker from any part of the world," [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech in eastern Khorasan-e Jonubi province.

0935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Moussavi supporter Mohammad Estaki has been arrested in Isfahan. Journalist Kayvan Samimi has been moved back to solitary confinement in Evin Prison. Mohammadreza Razaghi of the Mousavi campaign and Asghar Khandan have been freed. Sara Tavassoli, daughter of the director of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been released.

0933 GMT: "An Assembly with Eyes Wide Shut". Anticipating the start of the two-day meeting of the Assembly of Experts, Rah-e-Sabz has a lengthy analysis of the divisions between hardliners and moderates in the body.

0900 GMT: Karroubi v. Larijani Watch. Now to the serious news. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online takes Mehdi Karroubi's seriously enough to launch a full attack on it as "destroying the structures" (sakhtar-shekanane) of the Islamic Republic. Khabar then pretends that there's nothing significant at all, as Karroubi's declaration comes 11 days after the downfall of the Greens on 22 Bahman.

0855 GMT: Mars Attacks? It really is a banner day for headlines. The English service of Fars News contributes with "Sunni Scholars: Aliens Seeking to Sow Discord among Muslims".

0735 GMT: Later this morning, we're hoping to get out an analysis of the significance of social media and "citizen journalism" in this conflict. For now, just note (somewhat ironically, since the film was initially shot by the attackers) the impact of BBC Persian and YouTube footage --- shown in a separate EA entry --- of the assault on the Tehran University dormitories on 15 June. As with previous YouTube video, publicised by Twitter and Facebook, the anger over the video is likely to support the resurgence of opposition.

0730 GMT: Over-the-Top Headline of the Day (2). In The Huffington Post, "Iran Invites Israeli Bombers to Visit Its Nuclear Facilities".

0720 GMT: Full marks to Nazila Fathi of The New York Times (and to The Los Angeles Times yesterday) for valuable coverage of the Karroubi statement: "It was clear from Mr. Karroubi’s call for a referendum that he did not expect the government to take it seriously. But his ability even to make such a demand and spread the message over the Internet seemed calculated to frustrate the Iranian authorities."

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has published a letter that it claims is from imprisoned student Seyed Zia Nabavi to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. Nabavi, jailed for 15 years, declares, "I have yet to see a document authorizing my arrest and stating the reason.”

The student was detained on 15 June, during the first mass marches after the election. His sentence claims he was conspiring against national security and associating with opposition group Mujahedin-e-Khalq.

0710 GMT: Over-the-Top Headline of the Day? The New Republic, featuring Abbas Milani's profile of Mir Hossein Mousavi: "Iran Finds Its Nelson Mandela".

0645 GMT: An interesting comparison emerges this morning in news from Iran. On the regime side, the headline is the announcement by the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence that the leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, Abdolmalek Rigi, has been captured in eastern Iran.

I suspect the news will be trumpeted loudly today. Jundullah's suicide bombing last October killed 42 people, including six Revolutionary Guard commanders, and shook up and distracted Iranian security forces. This turns around the political situation: Rigi's detention and the blow to Jundullah will be held up as a symbol of the regime's triumph over foreign-supported threats to the Islamic Republic.

On the opposition side, however, the news about Rigi will be irrelevant. Instead, Mehdi Karroubi's declaration yesterday turns another page in the post-22 Bahman rebuilding of the challenge to the Ahmadinejad Government. Following the two meetings between Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, which have promised significant news, i.e., a plan of action, for the Iranian people, Karroubi's call is doubly significant. It is immediately important because it offers a specific political focus in the demand for a referendum on the Guardian Council. Its wider importance, however, is that it indicates --- despite all the repressive measures and propaganda of the Government --- that the resistance is far from over.

The key here is that the two events don't match up. So while the Government puts out its victory message today, listen but also watch for any Green steps. There are dramatic and significanct sideshows, and then there are main events.

Iran Document: Karroubi Statement on 22 Bahman & The Way Forward (22 February)

From Khordaad 88:

I deeply appreciate the huge turnout on the rally for the 22nd of Bahman [11 February, the 1979 anniversary of the Islamic Revolution] despite all the security pressure and the restrained political atmosphere. The ceremonies this year were held at a time when all political factions, prominent figures, and Grand Ayatollahs had invited people to participate in the hopes of moving toward a resolution to the current crisis. Nevertheless, the brutal totalitarian forces are using state-run television, as well as official and unofficial media outlets to hijack the rallies, to present them as a show of their own supporters while unethically ignoring the brutalities and violence that occurred on the sidelines as well as the extreme security measures that were in place that day, thus offering an impression completely opposite to what had actually happened.


Those responsible for these brutalities want to use the rallies that would not have been possible without the widespread presence of the supporters of reformists and conservatives alike, to clear their record of [illegal] arrests, tortures, street killings and other crimes. They want to conceal their crimes, violence and cruelty with fallacies and misrepresentations.

This year, the police and armed forces had turned the streets of Tehran into a military base during the 22 Bahman rally. They severely attacked and silenced anyone who showed the slightest sign of nonconformity. Interestingly enough, not a single scene showing the presence of all those forces, their assaults with teargas, or their beatings was reflected in the domestic media! It seems as if their eyes were covered with a veil of [their] wrongdoings. How else could they think that they have succeeded in erasing the people’s collective memory and totally appropriating this national and religious ceremony for their own benefit, so they can continue “depriving people of their most essential rights”? This is notwithstanding the fact that were it not for the invitations of various political groups as well as the people’s [active] participation, 22 Bahman would have turned out to be an unenthusiastic rally of armed and paramilitary forces. Moreover, they would have had no opportunity for this political exploitation.

We all know that your participation in the 22 Bahman rally was not in support of the repressive policies that have taken so many political prisoners but a demonstration of your love of Iran, the Islamic Revolution, and Imam Khomeini. You good people of Iran did not attend the rally celebrating the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution to swear allegiance to those who beat people. My pious countrymen --- you know better than anyone that spilling the blood of the innocent is against your religion and your morals. Did [Imam] Ali (may peace be upon him) fill his prisons to strengthen his government? You, who have created martyrs, [cannot be] satisfied with the secrecy surrounding the crimes committed in Kahrizak, Sobhan Complex, and university dormitories, nor with the disrespect shown to senior religious figures. Your attendance on 22 Bahman is not [proof] of support for such villainy.

Regardless, those who have done their utmost to engineer the rally by utilizing hundreds of trains and buses to bring in supporters must explain why Azadi Square was so empty during the speech despite the use of so many resources and the engagement of police and armed forces. Is it possible to believe that intelligent people of Iran would not know the reason behind the presence of tens of thousands of police and armed forces? Do they think that people have been blind to the pressure being exerted by the police and plain-clothes officers who have used daggers, clubs, and pepper spray on the servants of Iran and the Islamic Republic to stop them from joining the crowd? Do they think that people have not noticed their fear and weakness?

Dear nation, your presence in the rallies of February 11 is beyond analysis unless it is looked at from the perspective of the dichotomy of the two currents organizing against one another. We have two political inclinations in our society. One is an inclination that is afraid of rights to gather in peaceful demonstrations, and rallies according to the Article 27 of the Constitution. It is this fear that motivates them to turn Tehran into a military base on the day of national rallies. This stream is the one that only tolerates its own supporters in rallies, and understands the nation as a set of groups who are advocates and supporters of its commands. It sees the rest of the people, even if the rest of the people constitute a majority, as "dirt and dust".

On the other side there is the other inclination which recognizes you regardless of your variety, colorful range of beliefs, and without favoring one gender, class, culture, or race. This is an inclination that calls people not only to attend the rallies in Azadi Square but also to sit together around the same table and share their freedom.

As such, based on the teachings of Imam Khomeini, I have two suggestions to take away the veil of ignorance that has blinded the sights of totalitarian currents. My first suggestion is that just like Imam Khomeini had asked: “The government should organize a meeting in Tehran in one of the big squares, and allow us to organize a meeting in the deserts close to Qom.” I want to ask for a permit to organize a rally based on the article 27 of the Constitution in one of the squares of Tehran so that we can see the minority and the majority.

We will provide security for the rally ourselves and guarantee that it will be conducted without any slogans directed at the regime. Once and for all, a demonstration free of threats and suppression to show the weight of each group in the society.

The second suggestion: while the authoritarian factions have turned the 22nd Bahman rally into a referendum to endorse their violent and anti-public policies , I propose a referendum based on the article 59 of the Constitution to solve this crisis and end the reign of the Guardian Council.

[The Council's] interfering with the rule of people in the name of supervision has even surpassed [their own definition]. It is these interventions that inhibit holding a free presidential election and forming an independent Guardian Council and parliament. In what sort of independent Parliament are members forced –--out of the fear of guardian council –-- to sign every statement against people who care for this country?

The record of the 10th Presidential election [of 2009] shows that only a referendum can free us from these difficulties. [Only] in presence of an independent Parliament will the principles related to interests of people and their fundamental rights such as freedom of press, fair trial and so on be observed. It is such a parliament, free from the rule of Guardian Council, that will clarify the weight of various political forces in the society not spending millions of dollars in government preparations and forcing a [pro-government ] atmosphere as we saw on 22 Bahman.

The Latest from Iran (22 February): Karroubi's Challenge

2115 GMT: We've posted video, originally shown on BBC Persian, of the attack on Tehran University halls of resident on 15 June, three days after the Presidential election.

2100 GMT: Sanctions Follow-up. Earlier today (1555 GMT) I got a bit wound up about an editorial in The Wall Street Journal pushing --- I thought dishonestly --- for sanctions. Matt Duss follows up by taking apart the editorial's claim "prominent Iranian dissidents [have] moved from adamant opposition to severe sanctions to hesitant acceptance of the idea".

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (15 June 2009)
NEW New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz
Iran Analysis: Re-alignment v. Crackdown — Which “Wins”?
Iran: A Tale of Cricket, Andre the Giant, and Protests
The Latest from Iran (21 February): Catching Up

2050 GMT: Back to "Dirt and Dust". Ruhollah Hosseinian, the head of Islamic Revolution party in the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) and a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, has choice words for the opposition in an interview with Khabar Online: "The opponents received a firm response from the people....Before February 11, I have said that on its way, the raging flood of people on the anniversary of Islamic revolution victory will remove any dirt and dust."

""Dirt and dust" was Ahmadinejad's infamous description of his opponents in his "victory" speech the day after the 12 June Presidential election.


Hosseinian's claim of mass support for the regime? "When Karroubi wanted to join people, they began hitting him. When Mr. Khatami appeared, people followed his car and didn't let him to attend the demonstration. Mousavi was also forced to put something like a scarf on the head and go back to his home. So it's better for them not to taint their reputation anymore."

1940 GMT: And Khatami Chips In. Former President Mohammad Khatami has made his first statement after 22 Bahman, in comments to families of political prisoners:

Our Constitution stipulates that nobody is allowed to restrict political and social freedoms under pretext of establishing security. A major challenge is that one newspaper is muzzled overnight and many journalists lose their jobs. But worse is the existence of 'pseudo-press' enjoying full immunity to lie.

It is no honor for the government to imprison so many journalists. I warn that the regime will be on the receiving end of these painful behaviours

1930 GMT: A Special Karroubi Watch. Back from an academic break to find that the Los Angeles Times has posted a valuable summary of Mehdi Karroubi's statement (see 1450 GMT).

Karroubi's first challenge is a general one. Let the Iranian people assemble to see what they really think of the political situation, he proposes: "Authorize us to rally to show them the difference between majority and minority. We assure the authorities that no unconventional slogans will be chanted." That's a pointed response to the regime: if you really think you have a mandate on the basis of your 30 December and 11 February rallies, then you should have no fear of an opposition gathering. He declared:

Through state television and their state-run mouthpieces, hard-liners and violence-seekers are covering up their savagery during the 22 Bahman rally in order to exploit the massive turnout of people for their political ends. Military and security forces had transformed Tehran into a military barrack. State media did not carry even a single image of their military campaign, firing teargas and beating people. They wrongly imagine they can push ahead with their project of denying people their sovereign rights.

One tendency is to be afraid of people's right to hold gatherings and rallies. This tendency only tolerates the presence of its own supporters in official rallies and considers other people, even though a majority, as dust and dirt. The other tendency recognizes everyone as part of the Iranian nation, regardless of gender and religious, tribal or cultural affiliations.

Then the cleric focused on a specific test and demand, calling for a referendum on the powers of the Guardian Council.

The ruling establishment intends to describe the Feb 11 as a referendum for endorsement of its violent and anti-human policies. I propose a referendum to be held to lead the country out of crisis and spell an end to the sovereignty of the Guardian Council....

The Guardian Council has meddled with people's sovereignty under cover of arbitrary vetting process. The Council's interferences do not allow free and fair elections for people to choose an independent President, Assembly of Experts [the body that chooses the Supreme Leader], and Parliament."

1555 GMT: Regime Change Sleight-of-Hand. Normally there is no significance in publishing the US-based opinion pieces, calling for the toppling of the Iranian system while claiming to uphold the good of the Iranian people, but the artifice is so blatant in this Wall Street Journal offering from Reuel Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz, both of the euphemistically named Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, that it deserves reward. In the space of one paragraph from Green friend to the real agenda:

Now is the time for Mr. Obama to rally Americans and Europeans to the cause of Iranian democracy. If Mr. Khamenei can manage to crush the opposition, we will have lost an enormous opportunity to bring some normality and hope to the Middle East. Gasoline sanctions may well be too little too late to throttle the regime's nuclear aspirations. But we are fooling ourselves if we believe that what we've done so far will stop the Islamic Republic's quest for the bomb.

1450 GMT: Karroubi's Strategy? According to Gooya, Mehdi Karroubi has issued a statement to the Iranian people with two core demands: freedom of assembly and a referendum on the legitimacy of the Guardian Council.

1345 GMT: Why Are All the Security Heads Changing? Hmm....

Commander Ali Fazli, head of Seyed-ol-Shoahda Revolutionary Guards in Tehran, is stepping down. The announcement comes a week, Tehran's police chief, Azizollah Rajabzadeh, "retired" after six months at his post.

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, praised Commander Fazli’s actions in the post-election events against “the seditious movement and the riots”. Which only raises the question....

So why is he departing now?

1210 GMT: Iran to IAEA Head "You Suck". Missed this when I noted Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman lashing the International Atomic Energy Agency (see 0910 GMT). Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had set the tone on Sunday: “[New IAEA head Yukio] Amano is new to the job and clearly has a long way to go before he can reach the experience held by [former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency] Mohammad El Baradei. The report was Amano's first and, like many other first reports, it was seriously flawed."

1205 GMT: On the Pose Goes. Looks like Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's nuclear authority, has gotten his media moment today. Press TV is featuring not only his declaration that construction of two more uranium enrichment plants will begin in March (see 0910 GMT) but also that up to 20 sites for 10 more plants have been located.

The New York Times, for one, spreads Salehi's fame farther, devoting a lengthy summary to the announcement.
1140 GMT: A Lack of Insurance. The Financial Times updates on a significant development in the Iranian economy: leading insurance firm Lloyds has said it will not insure refined oil shipments to Iran if the US Congress passes sanctions legislation. This follows the decision of two prominent German insurers/re-insurers to cease all business in Iran.

As non-Iranian firms will not take on the risk of business in Iran without appropriate cover, the recent moves are likely to constrict investment. Specially, Lloyds' decision may disrupt the flow of oil inside Iran, raising gasoline prices in Iran.

1045 GMT: Pose of the Day. From the BBC:

The Iranian transport minister [Hamid Behbahani] has given foreign airlines 15 days to change the name to Persian Gulf on their in flight monitors.

If they failed, they would be prevented from entering Iranian airspace, he warned. And if the offence was repeated, foreign airliners would be grounded and refused permission to leave Iran.

0910 GMT: Morning Poses. The head of Iran's nuclear authority, Ali Akbar Salehi, declares, "Inshallah (God willing), in the next Iranian year (starting in March) as ordered by the president (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad), we may start the construction of two new enrichment sites." And the Foreign Ministry's spokesman wags a finger at the "West", "To maintain its prestige, we expect the [International Atomic Energy] Agency to not allow certain countries to impose their will on the international community through political approaches."

"The IAEA should adopt a legal approach to the issue of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities," he added.

0720 GMT: Our German Bureau sends us a photo from the Berlin International Film Festival, the Berlinale:



0712 GMT: Economy Watch. A shot at the President over health care, with the deputy chairman of Iran’s Association of General Practitioners, Masoud Moslemi-Fard, criticising the lack of funds in the budget and declaring, “At least two million Iranians will be under the poverty line with the current health expenses.”

0710 GMT: We start today with a feature all the way from the eastern United States: "New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz".

0700 GMT: With no big set-piece occasion and the opposition re-assessing its tactics, we're settling in for a long stretch of steady, if largely undramatic, pressure on the Government and regime.

Even as other media, noticing Iran on showpiece occasions but then walking away if there is no quick resolution, declare an end to the post-election conflict, the signals of the medium-term challenge are there to be heard. This weekend, it was the meeting of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and the manoeuvres of Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies. Rafsanjani played a political card with his speech, backed up by Mohsen Rezaei, at the Expediency Council declaring loyalty to the Supreme Leader but calling for changes in the Iranian system, and then he made a symbolic declaration with his visit to Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali.

And there was the steady thump-thump-thump of the beat against the Government over the Iranian economy, complemented by the political challenge to President Ahmadinejad from "conservative" opposition.

So we're grabbing a cup of tea and taking up a position on the sofa. Nothing dramatic here; just the day-to-day, gradual shifting of Iran's political landscape.

Iran Analysis: Re-alignment v. Crackdown --- Which "Wins"?

Forget all the talk and newspaper articles, which EA correspondents like Josh Shahryar took apart on Saturday, about this conflict being settled in favour of a heavy-fisted Government. While the opposition is still considering its next moves, there was more than enough to show that 1) this is far more than a simple narrative of Government putting down the Green Movement and 2) that Government is far from secure in its supposed victory.

NEW Iran: A Tale of Cricket, Andre the Giant, and Protests
Iran: “It’s All Over” for the Green Movement?

First, the less dramatic --- frankly, quite mundane --- but significant political move. The "ambiguous" Hashemi Rafsanjani is no longer ambiguous. His statement at the Council reaffirmed his basic position of siding with the Supreme Leader, but equally important were his call for unity and the need to make changes to ensure the security of the Iranian system.



Still a bit vague? Well, you have to join the statement to that of Mohsen Rezaei: Secretary of the Council, Presidential candidate, and Rafsanjani ally. Yep, ally. Rezaei's own declaration to the Council was for alterations to the electoral law that governed last year's unresolved campaign.

That might seems a bit too bureaucratic for much attention, but the significance of "alterations" is that they would take away power from bodies such as the Guardian Council, the group that tightly oversees and restricts Iran's political process. And that in turn means an opening up of space in the system for factions, parties, and individuals --- even critical parties and individuals if they stay within the legal framework of the system.

A Rafsanjani-Rezaei alignment is not new --- think "National Unity Plan" and the possible January initiative to clip the authority of President Ahmadinejad. In this case, however, it is narrower but more focused. Take away some of the political  power wielded by the executive and hand it to an ostensibly "neutral" body.

So how will the Government respond? Well, not directly. Saturday was another day where it was defending against attacks on the economy and trying to show its authority with more threats against the supposedly vanquished opposition and, perhaps, even "conservative" elements who are not on-board.

Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam declared that media are the collaborators of intelligence services, assuring anyone listening that Iran's security services will take care of the foreign media in time to prevent any regime change.

Justice Minister Morteza Bakhtiari pronounced that you can forget the "official" figure of 300 detained on Ashura (27 December); it was actually 700. So let there be no doubt that the regime would also "get" Karroubi and Mousavi to prevent any significant challenge.

Ahmadinejad's media advisor Mehdi Kalhor chipped in with the news that the first "velvet revolution" in Iran was on 2 Khordaad 1376 (23 May 1997), the day that Mohammad Khatami was elected President. Neat twist, this. It is not the Ahmadinejad 2009 victory that is fraudulent but that of Khatami, who just happens to be one of the leading opposition figures, and the "reformists".

In Qom, Ahmadinejad's clerical backer, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, analysed that "the devil" played a role in the recent "riots" in Iran. Satan's companions includes "jinnis" and devious people, and democracy is another example of his ferocity and tyranny.

Not exactly the statements of a regime secure in its skin. Hmm....

Well, one easy read is that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi haven't exactly gone away. They met for the second time this week on Saturday, this in Karroubi's home. No details given by Karroubi's website Saham News, but the point is that they met. The Government watches and frets that 22 Bahman did not settle matters.

But it should not only be watch the devil's foreign and domestic minions. The situation is such that any shift, even with "the system", of power and oversight is a slap-down to a President and his advisors who have escalated this crisis to the point of no compromise.

So expect more threats against Hashemi Rafsanjani in the near-future. Look for more counter-attacks from members of Parliament who no longer have any respect for Ahmadinejad. And bring back the recurrent question.

What say you now, Supreme Leader?