The Latest from Iran (14 February): Step by Step

2140 GMT: The Evin Protests. Once again, families of detainees have protested outside Evin Prison. The demonstrations have been occurring almost every evening in recent weeks.

2030 GMT: US To Israel "No Attack"? A bit of a tangled message from Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, during his visit to Tel Aviv today. On the one hand, Mullen declared, "The outbreak of a conflict will be a big, big, big problem for all of us, and I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike." On the other, he still put out the escape clause for military action, "We haven't taken off any option from the table."

1735 GMT: Blogger and rights activist Ali Kalayi has been released from detention after posting $50,000 bail. Kalayi was arrested last Sunday for publishing a statement alleged to be from the Army in support of the Iranian people.

1710 GMT: Pardon This Interruption. To Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives: you're a blowhard who should be remembered fo r what you did to your first wife rather than any "contribution" to US foreign policy. Especially when your approach to Iran is based on tired 1930s hyperbole rather than any approximation of knowledge.

NEW Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?
Iran: Reading Khabar’s “Conservative” Attack on Ahmadinejad
Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)
Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman
Iran: “Allahu Akhbar from the Rooftops” — The 2009 Photo of the Year
Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

1700 GMT: Today's US Posture. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talks tough as she visits Qatar before going to Saudi Arabia:

Iran leaves the international community little choice but to impose greater costs for its provocative steps. Together, we are encouraging Iran to reconsider its dangerous policy decisions. We are now working actively with our regional and international partners, in the context of our dual track approach, to prepare and implement new measures to convince Iran to change its course

Back in Washington, National Security Council James Jones took the rhetoric to the point of "spontaneous" toppling of the Iranian Government:

We're drawing our conclusions based on non-action on the Iranian part and now moving towards a clear set of sanctions. I think we will get tough as quickly as possible. But you know, whether it happens this week or next week is not the issue.

While the Administration was not advocating regime change, in the context of Iran's internal issues, "very tough sanctions ... could well trigger regime change".

1500 GMT: Presenting 22 Bahman. The "conservative"  Combatant Clergy Association has issued a statement declaring "victory" in Thursday's rallies with the "unity" of the Iranian nation made clear. It asks reformists, even though they have been insulted by their opponents, to join them while maintaining a call to prosecute those who act against the people.

1455 GMT: Big in the USA. President Ahmadinejad's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai may have his problems at home but he's consoling himself that he --- or at least his Government --- is wowing everyone abroad. He has declared that, with its successes in laser technology and stem-cell research, Iran's victory is being celebrated "even in the USA".

1445 GMT: On the International Front. Good to know that Iran and the US can still find common ground. Iranian state media has supportive words today for NATO's offensive against the Taliban in central Afghanistan, with the town of Marjah "a breeding ground for both insurgents and opium poppy cultivation for years".

1200 GMT: Reasons to Remember. Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim, writing for the Los Angeles Times, post an article based on the accounts of detainees at Iran's Kahrizak Prison:

They say the Kahrizak experience has only made them more determined. Few of the ex-inmates have given up their political activities. Hatef says he's trying to prepare for a long fight. When he sees the riot police approach at demonstrations, he draws comfort from a popular slogan that has become a signature of the protest movement.

"Don't be afraid, don't be afraid!" it goes. "We are all together."

1115 GMT: Reasons to Be Cheerful. Babak Dad posts that the Iranian opposition is "tired but praises hope".

And, at the Winter Olympics, Marjan Kalhor has become Iran's first female competitor. Kalhor, who will compete in the slalom and giant slalom, carries the flag for Iran's four-person team in the opening ceremony.

0920 GMT: News Accompanies Analysis. Mr Verde's evaluation of the next steps for the Green Movement is complemented this morning by the call by the Islamic Iran Participation Front to find ways out of the crisis based on the propositions of movement leaders.

0900 GMT: Follow-ups. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises the story of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali, while Jon Swain of the Sunday Times --- with a bit of input from EA --- considers the on-line battle between the regime and opposition.

0805 GMT: EA will be on limited service this morning to celebrate Valentine's Day (yes, we still hang on to a bit of romance here), but we have two analyses and an interview to get the day off to a flying start: Mehdi Karroubi offers his first thoughts after 22 Bahman, we take a look at the re-emerging challenge to the President from "conservatives", and Mr Verde has a searching, challenging consideration of "What Next for the Green Movement?"

Comments

[Catherine]

Thanks for that beautiful article, 'Imprisoned Iranian protesters share a bond forged in hell'.

I've finally got around to thoroughly reading the Human Rights Watch report on the human rights crisis in Iran I linked to earlier. "The Islamic Republic at 31: Post-Election Abuses Show Serious Human Rights Crisis," documents widespread human rights abuses, including extra-judicial killings; rapes and torture; violations of the rights to freedom of assembly and expression; and thousands of arbitrary arrests and detentions during the nine months since the election on June 12, 2009.
It's a chilling but compelling read - not at all legalistic - and intersperses much eyewitness testimony and victim's accounts throughout. I strongly recommend it.
http://www.hrw.org/node/88464

[pessimist]

This must be the worst nation for 2009, does Khabars or any other IR media mention it ?

[Catherine]

Heads up for tomorrow when we'll see the UN Human Rights Council start its evaluation of Iran's human rights record (15-17 February).

During the review, UN member states have the opportunity to raise questions about Iran's human rights record and make recommendations to the Iranian government, which may then say which, if any, it will accept.

Amnesty International's preliminary analysis for this review is critical indeed:
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/13/1143

[danial]

Wow this government loves bail doesnt it.

heh, maybe thats why they keep arresting people.

[AJ]

http://theiranfist.tumblr.com/post/389314539/you-win-now-let-us-mourn-our-loss

Asking the government of Iran to grant permission to mourn the loss! That should be the Green Movement's next move!

[Samuel]

IRI/VENEZUELA IN PRISONER EXCHANGE DEAL

In what is surely the worst violation of Human Rights taking place today the Fascist/Nazi/totalitarian governments of Iran and Venezuela have agreed to transport their respective anti-govt. prisorners to each other's prison systems. The enemies of Dictator Hugo Chavez will be transferred shortly to Evin prison while the innocent Green detainees in Iran will find their new home in the notorious La Planta facility just outside Caracas, Venezuela.

The strategy seems to be to isolate the political opponents of each regime in a distant, culturally distinct society far away from any support system. Dissidents will now be tortured with little to no oversight by the press or a local alien population. This is much, much worse than sending someone to Siberia as happened in Czarist Russia. Please get the word out so that an international campaign can be started immediately.

http://www.prensaislamica.com/nota2878.htm

[Barry]

Samuel

I can't believe that such a thing would happen. It is obviously a silly idea and anyway, there is no need for it

"Dissidents will now be tortured with little to no oversight by the press or a local alien population. " This is already being done in Iran - so why bother with the expense of transporting them to Venezuela. It would be a waste of government money - that should be kept for the purchase of additional instruments of repression. Those Chinese vehicles are not cheap.

Barry

[Megan]

AJ,

Link does not work.

[Arshama]

@ 2140 GMT: The Evin Protests

Good news at last: Due to the perseverance of families and relatives, who gathered before Evin 16 inmates were released tonight: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13526

Writer and worker's activist Alireza Saghafi was unconditionally released last night after 12 days in solitary confinement in Evin dept. 204: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13520

Author and journalist Na'imeh Doostdar was arrested on 6 February by intel agents. Ms Doostdar worked for the social affairs section of Jaam-Jam daily as well as Radio Farhang and Hamshahri magazine. http://www.rhairan.net/en/?p=645

[Catherine]

Barry,
Samuel's post was a satire. with a heavy dose of black humour. The link he provides goes to a completely unrelated article, and if you search the prensaisamica site for "political prisoners" (presos políticos), all you get is a piece about the Bakhtiar era and the release of political prisoners back then: "Bajtiar, considerado un estadista moderado, disolvió SAVAK, los servicios secretos del sha, liberó a los presos políticos y prometió elecciones libres...".

[Barry]

Hi Catherine

yes - I know Samuel. I thought I would play along with his/her satire. :)

He/she is a very intelligent and knowledgeable person - it is just a shame that he/she is deluded. I think that he/she does really believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran will truly rule the world one day - and that his/her Shiite theology will be the final arbiter of Islam.

Barry

[Catherine]

Hi Barry,
Even though your post was so short, I didn't thoroughly digest the end "that should be kept for the purchase of additional instruments of repression. Those Chinese vehicles are not cheap." So I guess I jumped the gun :-)

Actually, I thought Samuel's piece was quite a laugh - until the last bit, which as you point out in your reply, is already occurring, and that kind of put a damper on the rest ....

[Catherine]

Barry,
Before you disappear for the day, here's another important area of cooperation between Venezuela and Iran: Chavez wants to censor Twitter
:-)
But actually - he's serious!!
http://current.com/items/92121790_chavez-wants-to-censor-twitter.htm

[Barry]

@Catherine

Well, actually we don't know who/what he is - he could be Venezuelan for all that.

In fact, I don't even know who I am sometimes - I have led him to believe that I am Australian, but actually I am Innuit. http://www.crystalinks.com/inuit.html I am the good looking one in the center.

Barry

[Catherine]

How did the Innuits make it all the way to Australia!?!
(Sorry to other readers for the preivate banter)