Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square

EA correspondent Mr Verde offers an in-depth reading of this extended clip, filmed during President Ahmadinejad's speech in Azadi Square on Thursday:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxHwpESlpqA[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

The beginning of the footage, which looks like it is taken from the southeast corner of Azadi Square:


The crowd are quiet and relaxed and it looks as if it is footage from any grassy patch where people would sit and “picnic”. As you can see, it shows people getting comfortable for a long wait. This trying to get comfortable is to the point that a someone (around the 00:38 mark) has used a poster of Khamenei and Khomeini to sit on in order not to get dirt on their trousers. (Remember the "disrespecting of Khomeini's photo" allegation over the demonstrations on 7 December?). This is not a political rally to “gouge out the eye of sedition”, as the regime wants to demonstration. It is a (possibly forced) day out for people and their families. And people are doing their best to cope with it, such as the guy who is fast asleep (around the 1:18 mark) or the kids who are playing football (at the 1:29 mark).

There is very little sign of support for the Government or indeed the regime. For example take note of the lady in chador carrying a photo of Khomeini and Khamenei and looking very serious about it (2:19 mark). She has one person accompanying her. No one else seems to be the least bit interested in making any political or ideological point. The same goes for the van with the sound system on the back (2:38 mark). It is being ignored by almost everyone whom it passes. The only people who are taking serious note of it are two kids who are trying to climb the back of it as a prank. (Also note that the van has red Government plates; Government vehicles are supposed to be used for specific purposes for which they are bought, not carrying sound systems in a rally.)

At the 3:14 mark, a man is selling CDs titled “Green Sedition” for 500 toman (just over $0.50). Presumably its contents try to prove that Mousavi, Karroubi, etc. are enemy agents.

From the 3:27 mark, the footage is from the center of Azadi Square. (The podium is always erected on the north side of Azadi Square, so that the photos and videos of the speeches and military parades have the Alborz mountain arrange in the background. At least this was the original idea, but these days all you see in the background is pollution). Again people are not paying any attention to what is being said. They are just trying to pass the time. As the camera moves from underneath the Azadi monument, you could see a few police officers who are holding private conversations and three Red Crescent first-aid personnel who are standing around idly. You will also see a lot of rubbish on the ground which looks like posters that have been discarded. Again not a sign of support. You will also notice that the general flow of the people is away from the podium and towards Azadi Avenue to the east (later footage will show why this is so).

Notice the Red Crescent first-aid assistant holding a poster of Khamenei (4:24 mark). This is an employee who is told to hold the poster, and this sign of “regime” is ignored by everyone around him. It is in fact being ignored by the sign bearer himself (look how he’s just letting it fall over his shoulder while he holds a conversation at 4:31 mark). Even on the north side and so close to the podium you’ll notice people laying down and taking a nap (5:40 mark).

Take note of the place in his speech where Ahmadinejad is saying that, within the next 5 to 10 years, Iran will become the world’s preeminent power (6:08 mark). This is where people would usually say allah-o-akhbar to support this grand statement (allah-o-akhbar in this case is like a standing ovation is the West). But in this case the crowd around the cameraman is completely silent. It looks like no one was listening to what he was saying, but even when the crowd in the distance (those in front of the podium) breaks out into chants of allah-o-akhbar, the people around the cameraman are completely indifferent. It looks like they just don’t care. The sound of the allah-o-akhbar sounds as if it is coming from several thousand people at best.

From the 6:35 mark the footage is of Azadi Avenue. Again people are just milling around, oblivious to the speech and the task of fighting the sedition. At the 6:40 mark, there seems to be an official (I cannot identify him) surrounded by a handful of people. If the support for the government was high, you’d expect people to gather around him in the thousands and to follow him purposefully, not to rush forward to just take a photo (mind you, if I was there, I too would take a photo to take home and ask friends and family, who is this guy?). Compare this to the way Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami, etc. are treated by their supporters.

There is a larger crown milling around in between the stalls (7:16 mark onwards), but again the two men with the posters (7:19-7:25 mark) are completely ignored.

The flag at the 7:27 mark is interesting. Even inside the lion’s den, someone has had the courage to cut out the Islamic Republic emblem from the flag, and someone else has had the opportunity to film it on the ground. No one seems to care that an Iranian flag is just thrown onto the ground, and worse still it is missing the Islamic Republic's emblem. There is no sign of zeal or indeed any belief here.

The only sign of interest of the crowd or any energetic activity is close to the buses(7:47), where either street sellers are offering something or something is being given out for free.

I would take this footage seriously. It goes to show the extent to which “supporters” care about the Government and the regime.

Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?

This is claimed footage of an attack by security forces on an avenue en route to Sadeghieh Square, where Mehdi Karroubi was to join Thursday's rallies:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMx6cEv1aeo[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

Iran Analysis: The Regime's Pyrrhic Victory

Pyrrhic Victory (noun): A victory won at too great a cost (after Pyrrhus, king of Epirus, who suffered staggering losses in defeating the Romans)



Mr Verde writes a guest analysis for EA:

This year’s 22 Bahman anniversary must have been the most widely discussed since the 1979 Revolution, but with disruption of communications in Iran, the flow of information about the events was always going to be slow. So, reserving comment about the actual events for a later date when more information is available, here's a look at the “big picture” for the Islamic Republic.

The regime has demonstrated that, as with other occasions, it can bus in people, or entice them with free food or fear of their government jobs, for the setpiece event. It has also demonstrated that, again as with previous occasions, its security forces are very capable of beating peaceful protestors and dispersing them.

And here comes the problem: this year’s events were less like celebrating a Revolution that freed the country from tyranny and dictatorship and more like a tyrannical dictatorship celebrating its continued survival.



The more one pays attention to the words and actions of the officials of the Islamic Republic, the more it becomes apparent that there is something wrong. From the start of the post-election protests, the regime has been adamant that the protestors are few in number and do not have a real agenda except causing chaos and mayhem. (There were exception when officials, desperate to explain specific situations, talked about millions being on the streets in June, but these were single officials trying to explain away a difficult fact.) If the protestors are so few in number and so insignificant, there is no reason for such heavy security presence. How to resolve this contradiction? Either the regime knows that opposition is widespread or we are witnessing a totalitarian regime in action.

The protests have been ongoing for eight months. This period from June to February has covered almost all of the Islamic Republic’s official occasions where it has traditionally encouraged the population to take part in public events and used them as proof of its popularity and stability. But since 12 June, during each one of these events the regime has had to resort to naked violence to keep people off the streets. There are only two such days left in this year's Islamic Republic calendar that have not been tarnished yet by clashes on the streets: the anniversaries of Khomeini’s death (4 June) and the 15 Khordaad uprising (5 June).

The Islamic Republic is a regime that is built upon ideological symbols and heavily depends on them. Friday prayers are supposed to be weekly affirmation of the public’s support for the regime (both in a religious and a political context). Qods Day in September is to celebrate Islamic Republic’s support for oppressed Palestinians. 13 Aban (4 November this year) was meant to commemorate the killing of schoolchildren by the Shah’s security forces and, perhaps more importantly, the start of the US Embassy hostage crisis (referred to by Khomeini as the second revolution and the Islamic Republic’s proof that it stood up to superpowers). 16 Azar (7 December) is supposed to be the commemoration of student movements that stood up to the Shah’s regime. Ashura (27 December) is to commemorate the uprising by Imam Hossein (the third Shi'a Imam) against tyranny and his martyrdom. 22 Bahman is to mark the victory of the Revolution that brought about the Islamic Republic.

All of these events are now remembered not for their original symbolic importance, but for the fact that the security forces of the Islamic Republic have on every occasion beaten and at times killed peaceful Iranian demonstrators.

Beyond this public demonstration, the regime has managed to discredit many of its notable officials and personalities. Many of the Islamic Republic’s former leading figures are in prison on charges of sedition or acting against national security. Some very senior politicians and activists are treated as the enemy these days. On the eve of Ashura, government thugs disrupted a speech by former President Mohammad Khatami, in in no less a place than the home of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Khomeini. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Prime Minister during most of the eight-year war with Iraq, and Mehdi Karoubi --- revolutionary cleric during the Shah’s regime, former head of the Martyrs’ Foundation, former Speaker of Parliament --- are insulted by regime officials on a daily basis, prevented from taking part in official commemorations and at times shot at with tear gas and beaten.

The problem is not just that the current leadership of Islamic Republic owes all it has to such people. The real problem is that, only eight months ago, two of them (Mousavi and Karoubi) were both passed through the formidable filter of the Council of Guardians as Presidential candidates. The regime is now calling them leaders of sedition.

The question for the regime is: have these people, who have impeccable revolutionary credentials, always been leading an insurrection? If so, how is it that for 30 years the Islamic Republic’s many intelligence organizations and intelligence officials missed this? Or could it be that the state of affairs of the Islamic Republic is such that even loyal servants are forced to protest? No enemy would have been able to undermine the ideological symbols and tarnish the reputation of the Islamic Republic with such efficiency.

The regime is fast losing any claim of being Islamic, popular, just, or merciful. And its showpiece events have become occasions on which its forces are mobilized to attack its own citizens, even as it pours resources into a show for TV cameras so that it --- and some foreign media with superficial view of the events --- can call it a “victory”.

So a Pyrrhic hypothesis: For any regime, especially one that claims to be a popular republic based on Islam, pointing TV cameras at the right-looking crowd while beating the “wrong crowd” with all its might, especially on the anniversary of its formation, is not a victory.

Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran

EA correspondent Mr Azadi, who was in close contact with sources in Tehran throughout Thursday, writes this summary:

At 10 p.m., Iranian television began its news with part of the Supreme Leader's declaration, "Iran will be safe to the day that we follow Velayat-e-Faqih (ultimate clerical authority)."

This was followed by the images from the Azadi Square rally, as the narrator said that the day was mainly to show "our" support for the Supreme Leader and the defeat of foreign enemies and those who would deceive "us".

It was a symbolic end to 22 Bahman, with all the noise coming from the regime: many Green Movement supporters believed that, even though they were "countless", they still were not able to show their presence.

What Happened:



From the early hours, plainclothes security forces and the Basij militia were stationed around various streets, putting them . under the control and surveillance of undercover and uniformed security forces. All entry and exit routes around Tehran, as well as bus terminals, were controlled as well. Government buses had transferred Basij forces and plainclothes officers from different parts of town to the demonstration routes.

From Imam Hussain Square to Ferdowsi Square, there were fewer forces. But from Ferdowsi Square onwards, anti-riot force bikes and trucks loaded with batons and tear gas were on standby: on Keshavarz Blvd, from Aria Hospital to Palestine Avenue, and especially around Tehran University.

The security forces were preventing the people from reaching Enghelab and 7 Tir Squares, as a large group moved along the streets leading to Enghelab Square. From Enghelab to Azadi Square the number of anti-riot police forces was low; instead, there was an increase in the plainclothes forces, who could be identified easily from their walky-talkies.

As there was high probability for students protesting at (state broadcasting) IRIB, a large number of military and Basij surrounded the broadcasting complex, on Jam-e-Jam Street, around Karegar and North Amirabad streets.

Tehran’s Sadeghieh Square was one of the focal points of protesters. Mehdi Karoubi had announced the place as the starting point of the demonstration, and  thousands of supporters of green movement had gathered here. Large crowds of green-clad protesters moved from Apadana, the home of Sohrab Arabi (a martyred protester) towards Azadi sq. and Mohammad Ali Jenah Street. A large crowd of people were moving from Sadeghieh Sq. towards Azadi Square; even under tight security in the area, the slogans of “Down with the Dictator" could be heard.

In Asharafi Esfehani Street, people were shouting slogans such as "Death to Dictator and were tearing photographs of Khameini. The sound of car could be heard, which led to severe clashes between people and government forces. Tear gas was thrown and gunshots were heard. The first cases of arrest were reported from Azadi and Sadeghieh Squares.

Around 10:30 a.m. Mehdi Karroubi was attacked in Asharafi Esfehani Stree by plain-clothes officers. His bodyguards and others around him were beaten by batons and hit by "paint" bullets, while his car windows were broken. Karroubi left in another person’s car but the windows of this car were shattered as well. Two of Karroubi’s close friends, who also act as his bodyguards, were arrested by intelligence services and were sent to Evin Prison. (The two, Askarian and Anbar Nejad, each lost a limb defending their country during the Iran-Iraq War.)

Around 11 a.m. Mohammad Khatami joined the protesting crowds at the intersection of Zanjan St. and Azadi St., but was immediately forced to leave as a result of an attack on his car by plain-clothes officers. About 12 o’clock Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard joined the rally but again they were harshly attacked by plainclothes forces, and they were forced to leave the rally immediately.


In Azadi Square, the people on the East side were shouting “Death to Dictator!” and chanting: “Courageous Iranians: Support! Support!”; however, loudspeakers in the area were extremely loud and appear to have been arranged to overpower anti-government slogans. Government helicopters were spotted in the sky, flying just above the crowd of people. Rumours went around that the helicopters were taking videos of the crowd.

During Ahmadinejad’s speech, at some points, people could be heard shouting, "Liar, liar’, possibly causing him to lose his concentration on a couple of occasions. After the speech, because of security concerns, he left by helicopter.

The official pro-government march of 22 Bahman was finished, yet sporadic clashes continued in different areas of the city. More anti-riot police forces were called in to suppress the protesters, and eyewitnesses reported armed anti-riot police on motorcycles heading toward central Tehran. A large number of military forces were reported to be stationed around the Supreme Leader’s residence, the IRIB building, and North Amirabad Street. Until 11:30 p.m. local time, the sounds of siren and slogans could be heard in Shahrak Gharb and Vanak Square near Tehran University.

Those involved in the day assess that Green Movement was not able to show itself as well as it wished, even though there were many people on the streets:

1. The city was like a military base, and the control of the police was extensive.

2. Opposition leaders were stopped m participating in the rally, to prevent the formation of a Green Wave

3. People carrying Green symbols were arrested quickly.

4. The Green Movement made a mistake with the instruction to hide Green symbols until Azadi Square. This caused confusion amongst Green protesters, as it was hard to identify who was with and against them.

5. It seemed that people were waiting for others to make the first move and then follow them.

In conclusion, all involved declared that, while the Government used the day for their propaganda, 22 Bahman was still an important experience for the Green Movement to continue on its path.

Iran: Greening YouTube --- An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz

Mehdi Saharkhiz ("onlymehdi") talks with Diane Sawyer of ABC News about his use of YouTube to circulate information and images of post-election events in Iran:

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman