The Latest from Iran (23 September): Sending Out the Message, Cutting Off the Message

1559 GMT: Propaganda of Day. So I'm watching Press TV for a hint of when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will take the podium at the UN and these glorious shots of high-technology plants and hard-working engineers appears....

"The proud Iranian nation has accomplished another ground-breaking feat: the beginning of gasoline production in six petrochemical plants....Self-sufficiency in gasoline production is now within reach. The National Iranian Petrochemical Company. 'Yes, We Can'."

1555 GMT: Another Russia Snub? Novosti, via Peyke Iran, reports that President Medvedev has banned Basij commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi and Iranian nuclear officials from entering Russia.

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The Latest from Iran (19 September): While the President's Away....

1920 GMT: Striking Back. Mehr News posts responses from eight members of Parliament, ranging from conservative to reformist, on the President's recent remarks about his office and the Majlis. The summary --- "A number of lawmakers have criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent claim that the executive branch of government is more important than the legislature" --- is far milder than the comments summarised. 

An example? Key MP Ali Motahari's statement, "Among the three branches of government, the parliament is still on top of affairs and has the authority to impeach the president and remove him from office."

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since December, has reportedly met his family for the first time in two months.

Tavakoli's sentence of 8 1/2 years in prison was confirmed last week by an appeals court. Last month, he and 16 other political prisoners went on hunger strike; one of their demands was the restoration of visits with relatives.

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Iran Analysis: Karroubi's Challenge --- Who Acts and What Happens Next?

The President, as he presses on with his appointments, his rhetoric, and his journeys --- "Look at Cyrus the Great." "Now Look at Me." --- has thrown the Supreme Leader's intervention for unity back at his feet. 

So after Rafsanjani put out his coded jab at Ahmadinejad at the Assembly of Experts this week, after Karroubi tossed in his brick of a letter, and after the President persists in his grandstanding, does the Supreme Leader finally set aside a "unity" which is not happening? Does he point the finger at the Larijanis --- or others in the establishment --- and say....

"Will not someone rid me of this troublesome....?"

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Iran Breaking: Karroubi Intervenes with Letter to Rafsanjani "Take Charge"

UPDATE 1910 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has published the full text of the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani.

BBC Persian is reporting that opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi has made a pointed intervention with a letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in Rafsanjani's capacity as the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Karroubi's letter, sent to Rafsanjani just before this week's bi-annual Assembly meeting, called on the Assembly to exercise its powers to "monitor the functions and institutions under the auspices of Iran's Supreme Leader". Karroubi cited problems such as "a lack of independence of the judiciary and courts", the interference of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and Basij militia in political issues, and the IRGC's expanded involvement in Iran's economy.

And, in an even more provocative challenge, Karroubi pointed to the Assembly's powers, under the Iranian Constitution, to remove the Supreme Leader if he becomes incapable of carrying out his supervisory role.

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Iran Analysis: Is There A Rift Between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad? (Mahdi)

Dr Ali Akbar Mahdi writes a guest post for EA WorldView to answer the question of a leading Washington journalist, "Is there a rift between the Supreme Leader and the President?":

All along, Ayatollah Khamenei's support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been tactical and not based on what the clerics often refer to as "aqd-e okhovvat" (a tradition of  "brotherhood contract", established by Prophet Mohammad in Medina).  

Khamenei will support Ahmadinejad as long as the advantages of such support outweigh its disadvantages.  However, Khamenei is starting to see how the obedient president is enjoying power and is slowly outgrowing his own skin. That is why different signals are sent out from Khamenei's lower associates to the President, such as letters from the Supreme Leader's offices and critical editorials in newspapers like Kayhan and Jomhouri Islami.

Yet, assured of a ride to the end of presidency, Ahmadinejad has begun acting more unpredictably and controversially than expected. Khamenei knows that he invested too much in him in the last presidential election –-- an investment which much of it has turned to be a loss. For his own sake as the leader above the political fray --- a priority which former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and other clerics have been highlighting to him --- Khamenei needs to distance himself from Ahmadinejad.

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The Latest from Iran (17 September): The President's Political Baggage

2035 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Power Play (cont.). So the Iranian President has given his nationally-televised speech in advance of his trip to the United Nations.

Nothing unexpected, as Ahmadinejad gave the ritual thrashing of US foreign policy --- misguided towards Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and Afghanistan --- and declared that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is "under Western pressure" as it reports on Iran's nuclear programme. His symbolic play was to associate himself with Persia's great rulers by referring to how he brought back the Cyrus Cylinder to Iran from the British Museum (albeit only on loan for four months).

An Iranian activist has the best blow-by-blow summary.

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Didi Remez, writing for Israel's Yediot Ahronoth, reports on Italy's growing trade with Iran:

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Iran Analysis: Is Rafsanjani Ready for a Fight?

UPDATE 1725 GMT: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says "the file remains open" in the case of Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son. Iranian authorities have threatened to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who currently lives in London, if he returns to Iran.

Raffers is back. Possibly.

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani used the bi-annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts, which he heads, to put out a rather pointed challenge to the Government yesterday.

So President Ahmadinejad thinks he can wave away sanctions as a "used hanky"? Not so fast, said Rafsanjani: "Throughout the revolution, we never had so many sanctions (imposed on Iran) and I am calling on you and all officials to take the sanctions seriously and not as jokes....Over the past 30 years we had a war and military threats, but never have we seen such arrogance to plan a calculated assault against us."

Sure, that's a headline slap at "the West", but it's also the signal of a lack of confidence in both the President's politics and his skills at managing the economy.

So, is Rafsanjani ready to rumble?

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Iran Special: Sarah Shourd and Ahmadinejad's Gamble for Power (Gary Sick)

Iran has had bitter internal disputes ever since the revolution. What is different this time is that it has gone public. The release of Sarah Shourd, as welcome as it is, is only a symptom of a much larger process: the attempt by Ahmadinejad to make the presidency into an indispensable and ultimately independent policy-making center. In that contest, he has allied himself with the Revolutionary Guards, arguably the real power behind the sanctified throne in Iran, rather than the Supreme Leader.

This is not good news for the United States in its on-again off-again efforts to engage with Iran. Ahmadinejad has given some evidence of wanting to forge an opening to the United States, as have presidents before him. But Ahmadinejad, like his predecessors, is hostage to a hostile internal environment that fears a deal with America could interfere with the cozy military-industrial-political consortium involving not only the Supreme Leader but also his protectors and economic beneficiaries in the Revolutionary Guards.

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The Latest from Iran (12 September): Activist Nazar Ahari Freed

2240 GMT: Picture of the Day. Activist Shiva Nazar Ahari leaving Evin Prison tonight after she was freed on $500,000 bail. Nazar Ahari had been in detention since July 2009.

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Iran Analysis: Khamenei v. Ahmadinejad? (Sahimi)

In a lengthy article in Tehran Bureau covering events from summer 2009 to the present, Muhammad Sahimi puts forward a picture of a developing contest between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad and concludes, The struggle and the gaping fissures that have emerged among the conservatives led by Khamenei, on the one hand, and Ahmadinejad and (presumably) the Guard hardliners, on the other, will bring their eventual downfall. This prospect is magnified by the administration's utter incompetence and corruption." I differ from the analysis on the key point of the Supreme Leader leading a conservative blog against the President and the Revolutionary Guard --- my assessment is more that Khamenei is manoeuvring between contending factions, trying to hold them together --- and I think the portrayal of the politics, especially the nuclear talks with the "West", is incomplete. However, this is a wide-ranging review of the tensions EA has been noting for more than a year....

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