The Latest from Iran (12 December): Paranoia --- It'll Destroy Ya

See also Iran Interview Special: What Has Happened to the 1000s Wounded After the Election?
The Latest from Iran (11 December): Being Tough...To a Point

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Mohammad Javad Larijani1925 GMT: Ahmadinejad Shoe-Throwing Watch. Ghased News offers more on today's hurling of shoes, by a 45-year-old unemployed textile worker, at the President during his visit to Sari in northern Iran.

The website claimed the shoe-thrower is a recidivist, having tossed a tomato at Mohammad Khatami when he was President. After his effort today, spectators beat him up --- “If the police was not present, nobody knows what would have happened to him,” Ghased pondered.

There is no mention of the President's tour, let alone the incident, on the homepage of State news agency IRNA. Fars News mentions the visit, but not the shoe-throwing, on its English-language site; however, its Persian-language homepage is silent --- earlier today, the website deleted an article which mentioned the shoe-thrower's motive as 17 months of unemployment.

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Iran Analysis: The Drone Appears --- Now for the Politics....

Only hours before the Tehran display, the Administration had tried to recover with a tough-guy defiance: "yeah, we sent the drone over Iran; we've been doing it for years; it's all part of our successful progamme to disrupt Iran's nuclear efforts; a drone crashed; so what?" That pose was soon overtaken, even if President Obama issued a holding statement about "the toughest sanctions that Iran has ever experienced", while refraining from even a word about the drone.

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US Politics Analysis: Obama Invokes the Spirit of Teddy Roosevelt --- But How Far Will He Go?

Theodore Roosevelt, 1910Obama may not go as far as Theodore Roosevelt did in his Confession of Faith when he stated, “We wish to control big business so as to secure among other things good wages for the wage-workers and reasonable prices for the consumers.” But, if he does continue with this Rooseveltian-like journey to the Left through 2012, this populist turn may be of significance not November.

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US Politics Opinion: A Look at Overrated Kennedy, Clinton the Master, and Obama Missing His Big Opportunity

Last month, on the anniversary of the assassination of John F. Kennedy, I had a heretical thought: on 22 November 1963,  one of the country’s most ineffective Presidents was murdered. Accepting that he was in the job for less than three years, he still achieved little in terms of legislation. Kennedy was a smoke-and-mirrors man. It was Lyndon Johnson who got the job done.

Almost 50 years later, I am wondering if history is repeating itself. Oh, President Obama, what did you do yesterday? To use a soccer/football expression, you missed an open goal. You had your opponents at your mercy and let them off the hook.

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US Politics Opinion: Whose Gaffe is It Anyway?

Amidst all of these pitfalls and pratfalls, President Obama, who has been languishing in the polls, has caught up and moved ahead of possible contenders. Maybe the voters are starting to see that their President is trying to come to grips with the worst economic times since the Great Depression and that the bromides offered by his opponents won’t work. Possibly, the same voters are realising that the Republican nominees are both limited and woeful.

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US Politics Opinion: Republican Candidate Muddle Their Way Through Foreign Policy

Let's be blunt: if you are inclined to look for disappointments in your life, Saturday night’s Republican debate, held in Spartanburg, South Carolina, met expectations.

The problem was not preparation --- unlike previous encounters, no candidate had failed to set up their position. Each held/his ground vigorously. The problem was that those territories were indistinguishable from one another.  In a debate that was a showcase to make a move on front-runner Mitt Romney, that was good news for the former Governor of Massachusetts, but it did not do much for anyone else.

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Iran Analysis: The Pattern of Confrontation --- Obama Wins, Regime Wins, Iranian People Lose (Siavashi)

Nice politics. Shame about the reality --- beyond the immediate calculations, the US arms sales will only provoke Iran's hardliners and give ammunition to those within the system who want confrontation and animosity with the West. The regime will play the national security trump card again: "Look what the Americans and the Israelis are doing against us!" This will translate nont into a confrontation with Washington and West Jerusalem. The blows will come instead through more human rights abuses within Iran.

So if Obama wins and Tehran's regime wins, who loses in this pattern?

Easy call. As has been the case whenever Iran is treated with any kind of external threat, it's the Iranian people.

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US Politics Feature: Those Wacky Presidential Challengers --- From 2012 Back to 1936

It occurs to me that history is repeating itself. Once there was an election where a popular incumbent faced odd-ball challengers as the American economy was suffering, when unemployment was rife and when those who did have jobs could hardly afford to keep themselves and their families.

From 2012 back to the 1936 Presidential campaign. By the end of 1935, Franklin D. Roosevelt had turned away from big business with the declaration, "They hate me and I welcome their hatred.” It was the politic thing to do, a vote winner. 

As for the alternatives, voters were given choices such as “The Radio Priest".

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US Politics Feature: Is It President Obama by Default in 2012?

If I was a betting man, which I’m not, I would be inclined to put a substantial wager on Barack Obama being re-elected as President next year.

Not that I’m endorsing a memorable presidency. Not hardly. My view is based mostly on the likely opposition.

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Iraq Video: Obama Announces Withdrawal of US Troops

See also Iraq Feature: Why the US Troops Are Finally Leaving (Hint: It's Not Obama)

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