US Elections Audio: Scott Lucas with BBC "Interpreting Gingrich's Win in South Carolina"

See also US Elections Analysis: A 4-Point Guide to Gingrich's South Carolina Victory
US Elections Opinion: Loving the Razzle-Dazzle, Hating the Soft-Money Campaign
US Elections Analysis: How Protests Over Campaign Finance and Ron Paul Could Change The Race

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I spoke with BBC Radio 5 Live this morning about Newt Gingrich's victory in the Republican primary in South Carolina, raising some of the points that I made in an analysis for EA. 

How did Newt triumph in South Carolina, despite the revelations about his three marriages? Can he build on this win and overtake front-runner Mitt Romney? And what does this mean for the Republican challenge to President Obama in November?

The item starts at the 2:06.28 mark, with my comments beginning at 2:07.58.

Iran Snap Analysis: Car Bomb's Victim Was Not A "Nuclear Scientist", But Can This Still Mean "War?

The Body of Mostafa Ahmadi Rostan After the BombUPDATE 1210 GMT: An EA correspondent offers a vital addition to the analysis:

I think that caution should be applied on the theme of whether Ahmadi Rostan was a nuclear scientist or not. His links with the technical aspects of the nuclear programme are much clearer than, for example, those of Masoud Ali-Mohammadi [the scientist killed in January 2010 in a similar manner to yesterday's bombing]. His scientific curriculum fully fits the crucial gas stage of the uranium conversion and, according to Mehr, he was questioned recently by IAEA inspectors, who in turn are accused of making him known to the US and Israeli intelligence communities.

Unless the IAEA just questioned him to understand his procurement activities, there must have been valid technical reasons for them doing so, hence the label "nuclear scientist", which after all is a rather generic one. What Ahmadi was not was professor or even lecturer of any substantial level --- he wouldn't have been able to hold such a position with only a bachelor's degree.<

EA reader "M. Zand" (see Comments) points us in a similar direction, noting an article by Somayeh Soltani at Tehran Emrooz, "What was Engineer Ahmadi’s project?":

It is said that Martyr Ahmadi Roshan through a joint project was in particular working with polymer membranes to separate gases. To enrich Uranium, one uses polymer membranes such that Uranium is turned into Uranium hexafluoride gas, and then this gas is filtered through polymer membrane. With this Uranium 235 is filtered through polymer membrane and therefore enriched to Uranium 238.

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Expect a lot more media sound and some fury today over Wednesday's car bomb in Tehran, in which a motorcyclist killed Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan and his driver by attaching an explosive to their automobile.

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: A Message to President Obama

2054 GMT: This video was reportedly taken in Musayfira, Daraa today, where the people chanted, "Your silence is killing us, we have no one but God," and "The people want the execution of the President."

We don't know if Arab League observers saw this specific rally, but a video posted by a prominent blogger shows an old woman speaking to one of the observers, reportedly in Musayfira.

2040 GMT: Where is the teargas in Bahrain? Initial reports were that it was on the Country Mall roundabout, on Budaya Highway. However, a contact in Sanad village says that he can smell the gas, and that roundabout is very far away (general map of area). Teargas is also reported at the Buri Roundabout in Hamad Town, across the island.

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US Politics Feature: The Election Road Starts in Iowa

The first primary in the 2012 Presidential campaign will be held next Tuesday in New Hampshire. Before that, however, we get today's caucuses --- effectively, town meetings --- in Iowa for activists, primarily on the Republican side, to state their preference for the nominee for November's election.  Republican presidential hopefuls have criss-crossed the state for months, spending millions of dollars and time on states only have 11 of the 538 electoral votes that will determine who is the next President.

So why should we care beyond the razzmatazz of an opening contest?

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Iran Feature: Stumbling and Stalemate over Sanctions (Mills)b

Nikahang Kowsar on the Supreme Leader, President Obama, and US-led Sanctions

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As the country that gave the world chess, it is only appropriate that Iran's current sanctions standoff with the United States resembles a game between two inept players. Tehran repeatedly makes bad moves; Washington plays better but has no path to checkmate.

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Happy New Year: 10 Predictions for 2012 --- From US Election to Syria to No War With Iran to EA WorldView

A Reliable Prediction? Right to Left: Tunisia's Ben Ali, Egypt's Mubarak, Libya's Qaddafi, Yemen's Saleh, Syria's Assad, Iran's Khamenei

See also A Resolution for a 2012 WorldView: A Global Community Built On Communication, Not Conflict
Happy New Year: Rap News Presents #Occupy2012

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President Obama will call on the international community to intervene in Syria. He may not be the loudest public voice, but he and his team will be working the diplomatic backchannels in Europe and the Middle East hard. He wants to avoid war in Iran, but not so secretly, he is rooting for the domino theory to hold with the fall of the regime in Tehran. He will sell more arms to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to pacify their unease with his policies, while preparing a backup plan if there is no movement in the Islamic Republic.

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Bahrain (and Beyond) Opinion: Does Sayed Hashim's Death Matter?

Ali Shaikh and Sayed HashimIf these circumstances of Sayed Hashim's death are tragic, they are easy to explain. He is just another case of a person being in the wrong place at the wrong time. What he and his friends seek --- justice, democracy, equal rights - could disrupt the oil supply from Bahrain and create disturbances throughout the Persian Gulf. The implications of what a 16-year-old wanted could have been significant for cities from New York to London to Beijing to Tokyo.

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US Presidential Campaign 2012: 'Tis the Season for Silly Names

To begin with, the country voted for solid names like George, John, Thomas, and the like, but the 7th President was named Quincy. After him the USA has had a Van (as in Van Buren), Zachary, Millard, Abraham, Ulysses, Rutherford, Chester, Grover, Theodore, Woodrow, Warren, Calvin, S (as in Harry S Truman --- yes, the S stood for nothing but S), and Dwight.

Don’t tell me Americans are not attracted to the quirky in their politics.

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Iraq Feature: The Costs of a War (Duss/Juul)

The ceremony in Iraq marking the end of the US intervention

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Total Costs

Total deaths: Between 110,663 and 119,380

Coalition deaths: 4,803
U.S. deaths: 4,484
U.S. wounded: 32,200
U.S. deaths as a percentage of coalition deaths: 93.37 percent
Iraqi Security Force, or ISF, deaths: At least 10,125
Total coalition and ISF deaths: At least 14,926
Iraqi civilian deaths: Between 103,674 and 113,265
Non-Iraqi contractor deaths: At least 463
Internally displaced persons: 1.24 million
Refugees: More than 1.6 million

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US Opinion: So American Citizens Can Be Detained Indefinitely at Home....

I could invoke Benjamin Franklin, who once said, "People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both."

But Benjamin Franklin does not live in America any more. And those of us who are not willing to trade our freedom may now lose it at any time.

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