Iran Snap Analysis: Walking Back from War?

A Bush-Era Cartoon on Drumbeats of WarA week ago, the media was dominated by the prospect of an Israeli strike and Tehran's reaction. But then President Obama, publicly and privately, let visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu know of Washington's line against this. The Supreme Leader, within his rhetoric of defiance, welcomed Obama's position with Israel, and the European Union accepted Tehran's offer for a resumption of talks about the Iranian nuclear programme.

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US Politics Analysis: How Rick Santorum Can Defeat Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum's campaign ad attacking Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for supporting "Obamacare"

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Rick Santorum's biggest advantage over Mitt Romney in these next months will be his concentrated attack on the "Big Government" philosophy behind President Obama's economic policies, exemplified in the health care proposals. Santorum can rally Republicans behind the banner of individual freedom in a way that Romney cannot. If this election year is all about the economy, Santorum is beginning to articulate a positive vision of personal economic liberty that transcends the numbers of high unemployment and low growth.

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Iran Special: Explaining The Supreme Leader's Nuclear Politics

It has never been the case that the Supreme Leader's approach to nuclear politics has been separate from his politics at home. And, with that recognition, it is only one step to the conclusion that his position on talks with the US and its allies is linked to "legitimacy", not in those foreign powers but in the eyes of his people.

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Israel Analysis: Benjamin Netanyahu's Best Political Friend --- Iran

What is distinctive about Netanyahu's invocation of the “Iranian threat” now?

This is not just a tactical manoeuvre against Kadima, the rival to Netayahu's party Likud, ahead of elections. It is also the device to bypass serious and difficult negotiations, especially on the "peace process" with the Palestinians.

And with recent developments, Benjamin Netanyahu might need "strength" and Iran more than ever.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Hundreds Dead in Homs as Regime Strikes

Sounds of the overnight assault on Homs

See also Syria Snap Analysis: What the Massacre in Homs Means
Syria 1st-Hand Video: Inside Homs Before the Massacre
Syria Video Special: The Dead, Dying, and Injured in Homs
Friday's Egypt, Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Triple Feature of Protest

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2140 GMT: Bahrainis have met in the forum of the "Bahrain Debate" to try and find a political accommodation.

Eyad Ebrahim, one of the organiser, said, Everybody is worried. We don't want to see violence on the streets, from police or civilians. We want people to be able to talk freely and express their opinions. We need to move beyond this social tension because even if we have a political problem, there is no need for the community to disintegrate."

"A fundamental solution to the political problem is needed to end the vicious circle," said Omar Al Shehabi, who heads the Gulf Centre for Policy Studies, citing unrest going back decades. "I don't know any home or family that has not been affected or had someone imprisoned. All parts of the population need to have a role in writing the constitution. The constitution of 2002 was written behind closed doors."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/04/us-bahrain-dialogue-idUSTRE8130OM20120204

2116 GMT: Claimed footage of the regime troops captured by the Free Syrian Army in the Khalidiya and Bayada sections of Homs:

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Bahrain Feature: Obama Administration "Quietly Sells Arms to Regime"

Bahrain's Crown Prince & US Secretary of State ClintonPresident Barack Obama's administration has been delaying its planned $53 million arms sale to Bahrain due to human rights concerns and congressional opposition, but this week administration officials told several congressional offices that they will move forward with a new and different package of arms sales -- without any formal notification to the public.

The congressional offices that led the charge to oppose the original Bahrain arms sales package are upset that the State Department has decided to move forward with the new package....The State Department has not released details of the new sale, and Congress has not been notified through the regular process, which requires posting the information on the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) website. The State Department simply briefed a few congressional offices and is going ahead with the new sale, arguing it didn't meet the threshold that would require more formal notifications and a public explanation.

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US Opinion: Do Drones Undermine Democracy? (Singer)

In democracies like ours, there have always been deep bonds between the public and its wars. Citizens have historically participated in decisions to take military action, through their elected representatives, helping to ensure broad support for wars and a willingness to share the costs, both human and economic, of enduring them.

In America, our Constitution explicitly divided the president’s role as commander in chief in war from Congress’s role in declaring war. Yet these links and this division of labor are now under siege as a result of a technology that our founding fathers never could have imagined.

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US Audio: Scott Lucas with BBC "Obama's State of the Union: Competence, Command, Control"

I spoke to BBC West Midlands this afternoon about President Obama's State of the Union speech. The BBC focused on Obama's calculations in presenting tax rises on the wealthy; I wanted to get further with the politics. The take-away line? Obama, in a "safe" speech, put out message, "I killed Osama. I saved the economy. I am Competence, Control, and Command."

The discussion starts just after the 1:26.00 mark.

US Video and Transcript: President Obama's 2012 State of the Union Address

THE PRESIDENT:  Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans:

Last month, I went to Andrews Air Force Base and welcomed home some of our last troops to serve in Iraq.  Together, we offered a final, proud salute to the colors under which more than a million of our fellow citizens fought — and several thousand gave their lives.

We gather tonight knowing that this generation of heroes has made the United States safer and more respected around the world.  (Applause.)  For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq.  (Applause.)  For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country.  (Applause.)  Most of al Qaeda’s top lieutenants have been defeated.  The Taliban’s momentum has been broken, and some troops in Afghanistan have begun to come home.

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US Elections Analysis: Assessing Gingrich and Romney in the Florida Primary

Only 120 miles of interstate highway I-95, cutting through Newt Gingrich's home state of Georgia, separate South Carolina and Florida, but those 120 miles could be vital in the ex-Speaker's crusade to be the next President of the United States.

The emphasis is on "could".  After Gingrich's stunning victory in Saturday's vote in South Carolina, and with eight days before the primary in Florida, no one can claim with any authority to know what is going to take place in the Sunshine State --- or the consequences of the outcome. 

Consider one piece of political wisdom widely cited after Gingrich's weekend triumph. Florida has an electoral system that allows easy access to early voting, and even before the South Carolina contest was resolved, around 30% of Floridians are estimated to have cast an absentee ballot. That would seem to favour Mitt Romney, as he held a healthy lead in Florida polls for some time, and his campaign machine has been encouraging his supporters to use the early voting option.

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