Wikileaks Special: The Consequences for Turkey and the US

I have written often of Ankara's pro-Western tendencies, underlining that Erdogan's government is nothing short of a liberal and pragmatic organisation, seeking relative autonomy in the region without raising an eyebrow in the Oval Office. So have a look at this ridiculous quotation, taken from an adviser to the ruling AKP party and added into a US report: "Turkey wants to take back Andalusia and avenge the defeat at the siege of Vienna in 1683."

There are only two options for an analyst: either some of the American diplomats are seriously ignorant about the politics and strategies pursued in the country where they are authorized to work or they are being asked to report any shred of "information" without filtering it.

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Israel Analysis: Netanyahu in New Orleans on Iran, De-Legitimisation, and a "Secure Peace"

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the General Assembly of the Jewish Federations of North America in New Orleans. His issues were simple: the greatest threat of Iran and the attempt to "de-legitimise" Israel.

Netanyahu first set out the menace of Tehran:

The greatest danger facing Israel and the world is the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. Iran threatens to annihilate Israel. It denies the Holocaust. It sponsors terror.  It confronts America in Afghanistan and Iraq.  It dominates Lebanon and Gaza. It establishes beachheads in Arabia and in Africa. It even spreads its influence into this hemisphere, into South America.  

Now, this is what Iran is doing without nuclear weapons. Imagine what it would do with them. Imagine the devastation that its terror proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas and others, would wreak under an Iranian nuclear umbrella.

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Lebanon Interview: State Department's Feltman Plays with Beirut as a Pawn

A depressing interview in The Washington Post with the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey D. Feltman.

It's depressing because almost none of Feltman's words --- and thus, I presume, the State Department's attention --- are about Lebanon. There's no recognition here of the concerns of the Lebanese people, of the relationship amongst Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze communities, of the economic, social, and religious issues in the country, of the initiatives to bring some agreement amongst factions and thus some progress. Indeed, the only Lebanese whom Feltman specifically notes --- apart from a fleeting reference to President Michel Suleiman (not even a mention for Prime Minister Saad Hariri) --- are "Hezbollah".

That is because Feltman's concern is not about Lebanon but about Syria and Iran, to the point where he drops all pretence of "Lebanon" at one point and talks about the situation in Iraq. The interviewer is no better: note the concluding question, "So you don't think Lebanon is about to fall into Iran's hands?":

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Turkey Analysis: What Does Ankara's New "Red Book" of Threats Mean?

On Wednesday, Turkey's National Security Council (MGK) agreed to make radical changes to a document. referred to as the “Red Book” or the "Secret Constitution", in which the main threats over the next five years to Turkey's security are outlined.  

Is the Erdogan government a new "De Gaulle" which is just pursuing its political calculations or is it the Trojan Horse aligning with "radicals" such as Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah?

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Israel: Settlements Flat Out, Netanyahu's Jewish State, and the "Partnership to Peace"

The building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank in the last three weeks, since the 10-month moratorium on construction ended, has been more than four times faster than in the last two years. Still, the building of 544 homes "has [had] no real effect on the map of a possible (peace) agreement", according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He said on the 15th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin:

You were skeptical and careful, respectful and thoughtful, and you were determined to continue down a road leading to peace. I am a partner to your approach that we must always continue pushing for peace.

In the 15 years that passed, fundamental Islam has strengthened. It won the elections in Gaza, took over southern Lebanon, and has threatened the United States.

So, while persisting for peace, one has to recognise who is behind the threat of this "fundamental Islam". Netanyahu continued:

We do not want to take away from the Palestinian the right to self definition. We want the Jewish state to be recognized and protected. Our insistence on security is not an excuse.

We left Lebanon and now Iran is touching the fence. We left Gaza and now Iran is touching that fence. We cannot let this happen a third time… There is no doubt that Rabin, as a man of security, would have agreed to this insistence. 

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A New Advertising Partner: Tavaana

EA WorldView is pleased to announce a new advertiser. Tavaana offers Persian and English e-learning resources for Iranian civil society. From their About page:

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For further information, visit the Persian or English versions of their site.

Iran Feature: Top Tehran Analyst Zibakalam "Sanctions Have Worked"

These remarks from Professor Sadegh Zibakalam, one of Iran's top analysts of international affairs are striking, especially when set against President Ahmadinejad's all-is-well assurances. They were featured in Aftab News last week:

We should not wonder why the Koreans have joined the group of countries sanctioning us....South Korea exports $40 billion worth of car parts to the United States. Should Korea not give into American pressure, it could lose the American market....

I believe the next countries to sanction Iran will be China and Turkey....Turkey exports $15 billion to the 25 countries of the European Union each year. Should the EU give Turkey trouble and should Turkey be forced to choose between Iran and the EU, it is only natural that the Turks will choose them, just like...when Japan and South Korea chose to do so.

It would be most unpleasant if the Americans make trouble for the Chinese....China has for some time decreased its investments in and oil purchases from Iran. There was a time when we were the second-largest oil exporter to China in the Persian Gulf region, but today we come in eighth. Our oil exports to China have decreased to 200,000 barrels per day from 800,000 barrels per day.

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Video & Transcript: Clinton on Israel-Palestine and Iran (19 September)

US Secretary Hillary Clinton in an interview with Christiane Amanpour earlier this week and shown today on ABC News's This Week:

Watch the video....

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China This Week: Sino-US Talks; No More Iran Sanctions; Sea Tension with Japan; Ties with Myanmar

High-level talks strengthen Sino-US ties: Lawrence Summers, the head of President Barack Obama's National Economic Council, and Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon visited China from 5 to 8 September, seeking to iron out touchy issues in bilateral relations.

President Hu Jintao called said during a meeting on Wednesday, "Further comprehensive development of Sino-US relations is more important than ever before, as the global economic recovery is facing a variety of unstable and uncertain factors. China and the US should view the bilateral relationship from a global and strategic perspective."

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Israel-Palestine: Time to Move Beyond a US-Centred Approach (Freeman)

On 1 September, Charles Freeman --- former State Department and Defense Department official, US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and nominee in 2009 to head the National Intelligence Council --- delivered this speech to the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs....

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