Turkey Analysis: Ankara Seizes Political Leadership over Lebanon

Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" policy continues as Hezbollah and its politcal allies walked away from the Lebanese government last week. On Friday, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was in Ankara, and the visit was followed by a call by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer cooperation. Erdogan said, "There is a need for the parties to act with full responsibility and an understanding that keeps Lebanon’s common interests above any sort of [political] consideration."

Ankara, in the role of "firefighter" on the Lebanese crisis, is pursuing its grand strategy of centring itself in regional discussions not only as a "city planner" but as a global architect.

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Tunisia and the Real Net Effect: Getting It Right on Protest and Social Media

As with the uprising in Iran in 2009, this month's protests in Tunisia, culminating in the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Bin Ali, have sparked a debate about the role of social media in public resistance. While many seem to have been inspired and given hope by the roles of social media in helping to mobilise action or to spread news of developments, eternal net skeptic Evgeny Morozov continue to dissent.

But he and his allies aren’t just dissenting.

Morozov, in his "First Thoughts on Tunisia and the Role of the Internet", re-invents the course of  events to fit his pre-set narrative minimising the place of social media in activism. While I may not be a net-positive, I’m not as net-negative as Morozov and Co.

To be up-front and accurate, I’m replying to Morozov's entire article, paragraph by paragraph.

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Israel-Iran Analysis: Assessing Israeli Government's Latest Moves Towards Tehran

There are "moderates" who are against a military strike on Iran and "aggressors" who, at least, want the option on the table. Despite President Shimon Peres's efforts, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, whom the premier wants to keep as close as possible, insist Iran should be presented as an "existential threat". However, Mossad, including its new head Tamir Pardo), Shin Bet, and military intelligence are maintaining distance from a war scenario, since it will be their heads off first if objectives cannot be achieved quickly. The Obama Administration is also on the side of the moderates.

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Israel Snapshot: Foreign Minister Lieberman "Turkey Will Be the Second Iran"

Unfortunately,recent events in Turkey are reminiscent of Iran before the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei. Like Turkey, Iran was among Israel’s closest allies and the two nations held good relations between both governments and people....

During the last couple of months, the incitement against Israel has reached new heights. During Erdogan’s visit to Lebanon in late November, he said that Turkey will not “remain silent” while Israel will “kill women and children using modern aircraft, tanks... phosphorus munitions and cluster bombs.”

It is important to note that Erdogan’s visit followed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Lebanon a month prior. It was difficult for us to perceive any differences in the vitriol of the two. We had to make difficult decisions concerning how to react to this dangerous rhetoric, and it ultimately was decided the best course of action was to exercise restraint and refrain from a response.

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Israel Snapshot: A Happy (Secure) New Year?

The Israeli international security sevice Shin Bet, in its annual report , says 2010 witnessed the lowest number of terror attacks and victims in Israel in a decade.

In 2010, nine civilians and soldiers were killed in 798 terror-related incidents in Israel and the territories, compared with 15 deaths in 1,354 incidents in 2009. The height of violence came in 2002, when 452 Israelis were killed..

Only 150 rockets were fired from the Hamas-ruled Gaza territory, versus 569 in 2009. The oft-made assertion by the Israeli Government is that this indicates "success" in the 2008/2009 war in Gaza.

Yet, amidst these markers of reduced violence, the political discourse from Israeli is still one of insecurity. There is the continuing clash with Hamas and the deadlocked peace process with the Palestinian Authority. There are repeated declarations that Hamas is stockpiling arms, including "quality" weapons smuggled into Gaza from Egypt.

And there is always the omnipotent, "existential threat" of Iran, with its ever-imminent Bomb and its label of primary sponsor of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Happy New Year?

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Washington Blocks the UN and the Palestinians

On Friday, the UN General Assembly voted to hold a summit for the 10th anniversary of the World Conference Against Racism, also known as the Durban Conference.

In 2001, the declaration from Durban singled out Israel for criticism, likening Zionism to racism and referring to "the plight of the Palestinians." In April 2009, there was a follow-up conference, but the US, Canada, Israel, New Zealand, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, and Australia did not participate. The conference report had no language accusing Israel of racism and no reference to the recent Gaza War. 

Washington continues its opposition to any gathering. US Ambassador Susan Rice said Washington voted against Friday's resolution "because the Durban declaration process has included ugly displays of intolerance and anti-Semitism, and we do not want to see that commemorated".

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WikiLeaks and Iran: Is Tehran Establishing Bases in Latin America? (Sick)

Gary Sick, an official in the Carter and Reagan Administrations, covers a little-known story in the WikiLeaks documents, considering the possibility of an Iranian power play in Latin America to challenge the US.

However, he --- and the American diplomats handling the cases --- avoid the sensational conclusion of Washington v. Tehran in the region.

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WikiLeaks: A Guide to EA's Coverage This Week

Analyses

1. An EA exclusive on Afghanistan: "US Embassy Protects Contractor Over Hiring of Child Prostitutes"

2. We take apart dramatic headlines to evaluate, "Does Shell Really Have a Grip on Nigeria's Government?"

2. Josh Mull carries out a reality check: "Journalism is Not an Attack, WikiLeaks is Not Warfare"

Features and Documents

1. How the release of the documents turned into a CyberWar: "Now MasterCard's A Casualty" and "Visa, MasterCard Sites Still Offline"

3. One of our favourite strange-but-true moments: "Iran: The Regime's Ninja Assassins?"

4. A look at one of the more unusual diplomatic incidents in the cables: "Europe, Ahmadinejad, and the Worst Inauguration Protest Ever"

Audio

Scott Lucas offers an introduction to WikiLeaks and the issues over the documents in an interview with BBC West Midlands.

WikiLeaks: A Guide to EA's Saturday-Monday Coverage

ANALYSES

1. A two-part special evaluating the January 2010 assessment of the Green Movement and Iranian politics by the US Consulate in Dubai:

Part 1: "US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation"

Part 2: "US Diplomats Assess Green Movement and Politics 'From Crisis to Stalemate'"

2. Getting behind misleading headlines to assess the claim "Saudi Arabia: A Cash Machine for Terrorists"

3. Getting to the real significance on an American assessment of the situation in Iraq: "Comparing the Threats from Saudi Arabia and Iran"

FEATURES AND DOCUMENTS

1. A November 2009 diplomatic episode involving the US and Libya: "When the Nuclear Deal Almost Unraveled...Because Qadhafi Couldn't Camp in New York"

2. The State Department warns students, "Link to Documents and You'll Never Work for Us"

New WikiLeaks On Turkey: Snubbing the Opposition, Suspecting the Military, Warning about Iran

The Main Opposition: "No More than a Bunch of Elitist Ankle-Biters"

The cable, sent 30 December 2004 and titled “Erdoğan and the AK Party after Two Years in Power: Trying to Get a Grip on Themselves, on Turkey, on Europe,” reports not only about the Justice and Development Party (AKP) but also about the main opposition party (CHP). The CHP is called “no more than a bunch of elitist ankle-biters” and claimed as one of the reasons why there is no serious alternative to Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

Eric Edelman, then the US ambassador to Turkey, adds: “The AKP’s lack of cohesion as a party and lack of openness as a government is reflected in the range of murky, muddled motives for wanting to join the EU we have encountered among those AKPers who say they favor pursuing membership...or at least the process.”

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