Palestine Special: Fatah & Hamas Make a Deal --- What Will Israel Do?

With smaller Palestinian factions’ signatures, Fatah and Hamas formally ended a four-year conflict on Wednesday. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas’s Syria-based leader Khaled Mashaal were present in Cairo, and Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank celebrated by raising Palestinian, Hamas, Fatah and Egyptian flags.

The Ramallah-based website, Palestine Monitor, claimed to have the text of the reconciliation deal....

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US-Israel Feature: A Response to Ambassador Michael Oren on "Shared Values"

On Tuesday, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren put forth an article, “The Ultimate Ally”, in Foreign Policy.

Oren starts with the premise of a a strong ally that not only “shares America’s values, reflects its founding spirit, and resonates with its people’s beliefs”, but also politically, militarily and economically enhances Washington’s position in the Middle East. According to Oren, in this “dynamic” relationship, far from one-dimensional, “America needs Israel now more than ever”.

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Turkey Special: A Hard Look at Ankara's Policy of "Romantic Realism"

Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu wrote for The Guardian of London about his approach to foreign policy.

The context, Davutoglu explained, was a “natural” history, “flowing” from “abnormalities”  --- such as the division of peoples of the region by colonialism and Cold War --- to democracies spreading in the Middle East. In the course of time, he says, an ordinary Turk or Arab can change the history but you are bound to lose if you resist the “momentum of the history” which is giving the “dignity” of this region back.

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Latest from Turkey: The Insurgent PKK, Relations with Russia, the New Middle East, and Israel

Latest developments in Turkey....

What Next with the PKK?

The Kurdish separatist group, PKK, ended its unilateral truce on 28 February. Last week, its life-long-imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan said: “I will make the evaluation in the coming days in March. If something positive happens, the current state of inaction will continue until elections. If not, I am out, I will fade from the scene. My health situation is already not good enough to carry on this work.”

On the following day, three PKK guerillas/terrorists were killed by Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) in Sirnak. On Friday, TSK clashed with PKK members in Bingol --- four PKK members and two village guards were killed. Was this a reaction to Ocalan by PKK ’s senior officials or an organized response by PKK with Ocalan’s permission before the Turkish New Year (Newroz)?

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Turkey Special: Erdogan Government Reaches Out Abroad, Talks Tough at Home

Prime Minister Erdogan is striking a conservative posture at home, even as it holds out the unclenched first abroad. This does not mean he is seeking confrontation as an election strategy: there is no desire for a military clash with PKK, any more than there is a wish to use Iran and Syria against the US, but he is going to the leave no doubts. He is the man in charge.

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From Tunisia/Egypt to Libya/Iran: Notes of Caution on Sudden Change

Events will move to the breaking point, when someone holds a gun to someone else's head, and everyone is forced to react. With Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest, Mehdi Karroubi under the constant guard of security forces in his own home, Hashemi Rafsanjani's power being challenged on the Assembly of Experts, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's term expiring, and the 2009 spirit of dissent reviving, the question is when that point is reached.

The earthquakes of Egypt and Tunisia built up for a long time on softer ground. It has taken, and will take, much longer for the fault lines to break the foundations of Iran's government. When it happens, the regime is likely to go quickly, and like a high-magnitude earthquake, the results will be felt far and wide.

We're already feeling the foreshocks, but the whole world is waiting for the big one.

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Turkey Analysis: Ankara Expands Ties with Syria and Iran

Turkey's relations with its Eastern neighbours are continuing to develop. On Sunday, at the groundbreaking ceremony of Asi Friendship Dam in Hatay, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Erdogan said:

Asi river is not a river separating us, drawing borders between us anymore; it is turning into a river bringing us together.

Eight years ago, when we formed the government, we said this: 'Turkey wants peace, Turkey wants calm in the region. Turkey wants stability in this geography, wants wealth all together.' We said 'zero problem with neighbours' eight years ago. Because we believe this with our hearts that the more Syria is in peace the more Turkey is in peace. The more Turkey is in wealth the more the more Syria is in wealth. Because we are nations that are rendered as brothers by history. Throughout the history, our fate has been the same, our hearts have beat together. 

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Egypt Special: A Lesson Learned About Twitter From Al Jazeera

Twitter is just another communication tool, there to be leveraged by anyone with the will and the ambition. Yet just as Al Jazeera’s coverage of Egypt would sound ridiculous if described as "Television Revolution", so do straw=man notions of a "Twitter Revolution" in Iran, or indeed anywhere else. The Twitter of 2011 looks like it will become a mature, integrated part of the media landscape: if protesters in Tahrir Square did not have access, it still had a role to play in bringing the story to the outside world.

The jury’s still out on what Al Jazeera’s rise in prominence meant for the people of Egypt. As with Iran in 2009, we may never know just how many people inside the country were getting their information from these sources. But the jury is definitely in on how the channel has benefited greatly from positioning itself as the source of information from Egypt among mainstream news outlets, and it can thank social media for a pivotal influence in this rise.

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Turkey Analysis: The "Extraordinary" Davutoglu and Ankara's New Rules For Foreign Affairs (Traub)

In a world that the U.S. no longer dominates as it once did, President Barack Obama has sought to forge strong relations with rising powers like India and Brazil. Turkey, however, is the one rising power that is located in the danger zone of the Middle East; it’s no coincidence that Obama chose to include Turkey in his first overseas trip and spoke glowingly of the “model partnership” between the two countries. This fits perfectly with Turkey’s ambition to be a global as well as a regional player.

And yet, despite all the mutual interests, and all of Davutoglu’s energy and innovation, something has gone very wrong over the last year. The Turks, led by Davutoglu, have embarked on diplomatic ventures with Israel and Iran, America’s foremost ally and its greatest adversary in the region, that have left officials and political leaders in Washington fuming. Obama administration officials are no longer sure whose side Turkey is on.

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Afghanistan Snapshot: The Acid Attack on My Colleague Razaq Mamoon

The malicious attack on my colleague Razaq Mamoon in Afghanistan came as a shock to me yesterday. I learned that a lone assailant had sprayed acid on Mamoon's face, scarring it badly and injuring his arms and chest.

I heard the news as I was going to court in the US, applying for asylum because of fear of similar attacks. Here I am, trying to prove a journalist’s life isn’t easy in Afghanistan, and I am confronted by unwanted proof. 

During my court hearing, I kept thinking about the attack. Mammon is perhaps one of the best journalists Afghanistan has had in decades. He has been a thorn in the side of corrupt politicians, meddling embassies, and blood-thirsty warlords. And he lives in a country where journalists are about as safe as bait-worms in a pond full of bass.

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