EA Video Analysis: Why The Presidential Election Is Now Down to "Ohio+4"...and How It Could Be a Tie

See also US Elections Analysis: Obama Wins, But Romney Stakes Claim to Be Commander-in-Chief

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In our latest 6-minute guide on How to Become an Expert on the US Presidential Election, we explain why the race is now down to "Ohio+4".

If Mitt Romney takes Ohio, then he needs to win at least two of these four states --- Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada --- to move into the White House.

But if Romney loses Ohio, then he has to win all four of those states for a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, taking the decision to the House of Representatives.

US Elections Analysis: Obama Wins, But Romney Stakes Claim to Be Commander-in-Chief

See also US Elections Video: The 3rd Obama-Romney Debate

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resident Obama won the third debate, but did Mitt Romney win the White House on Monday night?

At times, as the debate progressed, Romney looked like a bystander, stage-struck to be so close to the actual president of the United States. Towards the end, before he recovered with a strong finish, Romney even began to babble, not quite sure what defence to mount against Obama's continual attacks on his flip-flopping in foreign policy statements. But, for all this...

Mitt Romney truly believes he can become commander in chief, convinced that the tide that turned in his favour after the first debate will continue through November 6.

Click to read more ...

US Elections Video: The 3rd Obama-Romney Debate

US Elections Analysis: Obama Wins, But Romney Stakes Claim to Be Commander-in-Chief

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Later today, Lee Haddigan and I will post our analysis of last night's third and final Presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. In the meantime, here's the full video of the encounter:

US Politics Opinion: A Few Things the Foreign Policy Debate Will Get Wrong

Many things will likely be talked about at today's debate. While there will be plenty of fact-checking and analysis in the coming days, there will be a few misconceptions spread, awkward truths ignored, and key concepts that one or both candidates are going to get wrong tonight.

Below is a real brief list:

Click to read more ...

US Elections Analysis: A Foreign Policy Debate Which Will Not Mean That Much

See also EA Video Special: How to Win Presidential Debate Buzzword Bingo....
US Elections Analysis: The "Fiscal Cliff" and the Races for the New Congress

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There is little that either candidate can say tonight which will sway the opinion of the wavering voters who will decide this election. Neither Obama or Romney has a foreign policy of details and concrete proposals that is distinctive. If there is the perception that each would act differently in the event of a major crisis, but that impression is already factored into the calculations of the "undecided".

The debate is not irrelevant, especially if Romney loses some of the “Presidential” aura he won in Denver. But the reality is that, if the Republican simply gives the appearance of a resolute leader, this election returns on Tuesday morning to a two-week battle to persuade the cluster of undecided voters, in a few key states, to make up their minds based on the economic and social agenda of the "better" candidate.

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EA Video Special: How to Win Presidential Debate Buzzword Bingo....

See also US Elections Analysis: A Foreign Policy Debate Which Will Not Mean That Much
US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

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As Barack Obama and Mitt Romney square off in the third and final Presidential debate tonight, devoted to questions on foreign policy, EA gives you the words that will ensure you're a winner in Buzzword Bingo.

God, leadership, terrorism, Libya, and Al Qa'eda --- they're all here in six minutes and your cut-out and keep playing card:

Click to read more ...

US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

On Wednesday, I joined Dr Adam Quinn and Ph.D. candidate Jonna Nyman to discuss the state of the US Presidential election and what lay ahead for domestic and foreign policy over the next four years.

While all of us agreed that an Obama victory was likely, the discussion of the issues at home and abroad led to some notable expressions of concern, from the threat to health care in the US to conflicts over social issues to a possible war with Iran:

EA Video Analysis: How to Become an Expert on US Presidential Election --- It's Down to 6 States

Obama? Romney? A Tie?

In Part 3 of How to Become an Expert, we explain how the US Presidential election is now down to six states --- Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada --- and how Barack Obama, despite his stumble after the 1st Presidential Debate, still holds the advantage.

[Since we filmed this on Tuesday, Obama has bounced back with a strong performance in the 2nd Debate, while Mitt Romney faltered. Fortunately for us, the President's recovery in the polls since then --- he is now a 70% favourite to hold the White House, according to FiveThirtyEight --- bolsters our analysis.]

Catching up? Watch Parts 1 and 2 of How to Become an Expert on EA's Video Channel.

US Politics Analysis: Obama Rebounds, Romney Stumbles

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate
EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election

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EA's Scott Lucas and Lee Haddigan write for The Hill

Forget policy and details. Last night's presidential town hall debate at Hofstra University in New York was about each candidate's acting in the political theatre. Could President Obama atone for his lackluster display in the first debate without appearing too aggressive? Could Mitt Romney maintain the aura from the first debate in Denver of an authentic presidential alternative?

We had answers within the 90 minutes.“Can Obama Rebound?” is now the question of the past. “Can Romney Re-surge?” takes over.

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EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate

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As details emerge of the death of four Americans, including US Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens, in an attack on 11 September on the American Consulate in Benghazi, six minutes on why Mitt Romney's focus on the issue is political manipulation rather than a contribution to "security" and US foreign policy....