The Latest from Iran (27 January): Pilgrims and Soldiers

A photo of five abducted Iranian "engineers", with their Syrian cook --- are they the five captured "Iranian soldiers" shown in a video from Syria?

See also Syria Video Special: Free Syrian Army Captures "Iranian Soldiers"

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2119 GMT: Warning the Supreme Leader. Earlier this month Hossein Alaei, the former Revolutionary Guards commander, caused a stir with an article implicitly warning the Supreme Leader against the consequences of repression. Twelve Guards commanders called Alaei an agent of the enemy and an angry crowd gathered outside his house and defaced it, while other former commanders and some conservative politicians defended him.

Now Alaei has put out another statement, in Jomhouri Eslami, about dictatorships. This one, however, is carefully worded to avoid accusations that the former commander is challenging Ayatollah Khamenei. He states that dictatorships have come to an end, referring to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and continues that "dictators cannot rule with tyranny".

2059 GMT: The "Iranian Soldiers" in Syria. The Iranian Embassy in Syria's Press attaché, Leva'a Roudbari, has declared that none of the seven Iranians held by the Free Syrian Army are in the military, “The kidnappers’ claims is baseless."

Roudbari, in an interview with Syrian State TV, also appeared to say that two of the seven men would be released, "Iran welcomes the kidnappers’ decision to free two of the kidnapped engineers.”

In statements to Reuters (see 1932 GMT), members of the Free Syrian Army said that, while the first five Iranians seized were not engineers but were snipers assisting the Assad regime's military, the two men who came to Syria to enquire about them were civilians.

There is a curiosity in the article with Roudbari's statement, however. The six men in the accompanying photograph, shown in a power plant, do not appear to be match up to the "engineers" seized in Syria.

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The Latest from Iran (17 January): Questioning the Supreme Leader

Former MP Emad Afrough, on State TV, says the people should be able to question and dismiss the Supreme Leader

See also Iran Opinion: Manipulating a Murder in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (16 January): Economic Jitters

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2049 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Marzieh Rasouli has been arrested tonight at her home in Tehran.

Rasouli, who has written for Shargh, writes mainly about books and music.

2034 GMT: Justice Watch. Mohammad Seifzadeh, prominent lawyer and one of the founding members of the Center for Defenders of Human Rights, refused to participate in his trial on 11 January 2012, according to his wife and lawyer, Fatemeh Golzar.

Golzar said, “Mr. Seifzadeh believes the Revolutionary Court is unqualified to handle his case. He forwent participation in the trial because of the court’s lack of competence and lack of a jury at his trial -- - which is one of the deficiencies that make this not a fair trial --- and for other, similar reasons."

In November 2010, Seifzadeh was sentenced to nine years in prison --- later reduced to two on appeal --- and a 10-year ban on practicing law, following charges of acting against national security by participating in the establishment of the CDHR.

In spring 2011, the lawyer was detained, charged with “illegal exit” out of the country, and sent to Evin Prison, where he was charged with “collusion and acting against national security” for his writings. These include a letter to former President Mohammad Khatami, former President of Iran; two articles critical of the way amnesty is applied in the law and of the definition of political crimes; and collective statements in prison.

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The Latest from Iran (28 December): Look! State-of-the-Art Torpedoes!

See also Iran Feature: Former Detainee Sarah Shourd "The Plight of Iranians and 3 Decades of US Foreign Policy"
The Latest from Iran (27 December): Election Watch

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2110 GMT: The Battle Within (Literally). More on Tuesday's fight on the floor of Parliament, with the manager of President Ahmadinejad's subsidy cuts, Behrouz Moradi, swinging at an MP....

Moradi, who was expelled by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani after the fight, reportedly called Parliament a "stable". Larijani has called for the prosecution of the official over the incident.

BBC Persian has video.

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Iran Snap Analysis: How Many Reformists Will Participate in the Elections?

Mostafa KavakebianHow many reformists will carry through on the threat to stay away from Parliamentary elections? Former President Mohammad Khatami has walked a careful line, calling for no fielding of candidates but also holding back from telling people not to vote. It is clear, however, that almost all reformist factions are holding that line during this week's registration of candidates. Groups such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, as well as Ayatollah Mousavi Khoeiniha, leading reformist political prisoners, and the detained 2009 Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, have all made clear their opposition to reformists seeking Parliamentary seats.

That is bad news for elements in the regime, including the Supreme Leader's office, the Revolutionary Guards, and conservative/principlist rivals of the President, who are worried that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's camp will use organisation and money to bring out their support and win a majority in the Majlis.

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The Latest from Iran (22 December): Tangoing Towards the Elections

Nikahang Kowsar on Ahmadinejad and the "dollar snake" of the currency crisis

See also Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader is Looking for A Few Good Reformists
Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?
The Latest from Iran (21 December): It's The Economy, Mahmoud

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1831 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. The President might have declared this week that the Iranian economy is one of prosperity and growth, which all countries wish to emulate, but that does not mean that he is not on the lookout for some sacrifices. In a speech in east Tehran, he asked wealthy citizens to renounce their support payments for subsidy cuts. Meanwhile, he promised that the Government would ensure each family had a car.

Ahmadinejad did not say whether his request for deferred support payments is connected to reports that the Government is running a large deficit in the subsidy cuts programme.

1822 GMT: CyberWatch. IUS News, a website of hard-line Iranian students, reportedly knocked off-line earlier today, is unavailable.

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Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader is Looking for A Few Good Reformists

"Politics make for strange bedfellows", I believe they say, and --- if only until President Ahmadinejad's entourage is evicted --- it appears the Supreme Leader is looking for a sleep-over with the reformists, even those who used to be part of the "sedition current".

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The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within

See also Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes
The Latest from Iran (19 December): And Now A Spy Story....

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2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post summarises the dramatic developments over Iran's currency and Tehran's trade with the United Arab Emirates, and links the two events:

Iranian officials including the ambassador to the [UAE], Mohammad Reza Fayyaz, initially confirmed Tuesday that Iran had cut trade ties with its third-largest trading partner, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Iranian Econews agency also quoted Mehdi Ghazanfari, the minister of industries and business, as saying that trade with the United Arab Emirates was halted because of its “anti-Iranian positions".

Following the statements, the rial fell to unprecedented lows against the dollar Tuesday, amounting to a 15 percent loss in value over the past three days, the Fars News Agency reported.

“There is sheer panic in the market,” one steel trader said. “The price of the dollar is increasing by the hour.”

Iran’s currency also dropped sharply in October 2010 after the United Arab Emirates implemented sanctions against Iran.

After Tuesday’s plunge, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi denied that Iranian-U.A.E. trade relations were cut. He said the emirates had simply been “warned” not to go along with sanctions proposed by the United States, Fars News Agency reported.

While the linkage is a bit too simple --- the Iranian currency has been falling for weeks, with an accelerated decline in the last few days before the trade announcement --- Erdbrink usefully describes the confusion and even chaos within Iran's establishment:

Adding to the confusion, the Iran-U.A.E. Chamber of Commerce said it had received a letter from the Central Bank of Iran banning all trade in dirhams, the U.A.E. currency, starting Tuesday.

Massoud Daneshmand, chairman of the joint chamber, pleaded for calm, Mehr reported. “The U.A.E. trades with Iran for at least $25 billion,” the agency quoted him as saying. “Any decision about this country should be thoroughly thought through.”

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The Latest from Iran (4 December): When Your Dad is a Political Prisoner

See also Iran Embassy Video Special: Umbrella 1, Iranian Diplomat 0
The Latest from Iran (3 December): A Regime Feeling Remorse?

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2145 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the President. Looks like I was too eager to find meaning (see 0820 GMT) in President Ahmadinejad's absence from Saturday's ceremony, led by the Supreme Leader, for Imam Hussein. Ahmadinejad was present tonight, as were a number of his inner circle and Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the Revolutionary Guards.

2140 GMT: Reformist Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Khoeini, a senior reformist figure, has declared that the regime has missed the opportunity to ensure reformist participation in March's Parliamentary vote.

Mousavi Khoeini, the Secretary-General of the Association of Combatant Clerics, said on the Ahang-e Rah website, “It is clear that the reformists will not take part in the elections....The people have shown that they are more alert and aware than us and they know full well how to deal with such an election.”

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The Latest from Iran (14 November): Playing the Foreign Card

See also Iran Propaganda 101: Nanodiamonds, Nukes, "Western Officials", and The Washington Post
Iran Feature: Did Someone Murder the Son of 2009 Presidential Candidate Rezaei?
The Latest from Iran (13 November): An Explosion at a Military Base

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1645 GMT: The Bahrain Plot. Tehran has denied any link to an alleged plot to stage attacks in Bahrain, as a lawyer for two of the five suspects said reports of their confessions were not true.

Bahraini authorities said this weekend that Qatar had handed over four men who planning to attack the Interior Ministry, the Saudi Embassy, and a causeway linking Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. A fifth man was arrested in Bahrain.

On Sunday, the public prosecution's spokesman said the plot was coordinated with the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia as well as two Bahraini opposition figures in London.

1630 GMT: The Explosion. The reaction of Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to the news of Saturday's blast at a Revolutionary Guards base, reportedly killing 17 people?

"May there be more like it."

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The Latest from Iran (28 October): "Our Prisons Are Full"

1854 GMT: James Miller takes the liveblog.

Reuters is reporting that three separate explosions have rocked Iran's oil and gas industry, though the government is stating that they are unrelated:

The fatal incident at the oil field at Bibi Hakimeh near the Gulf occurred during drilling, when workers unexpectedly encountered an "enormous volume of unknown accumulated gas" in the layers of a reservoir, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. Three people were injured.

Mehr also reported a separate blast at the Shazand oil refinery in central Iran, but the plant's managing director later told state radio the incident had been exaggerated.

"Nothing special has happened there. There was no fire at all," Majid Rajabi said. "The refinery is functioning normally."

The third blast happened on a 26-inch pipeline carrying gas to an oilfield in Gachsaran in south-western Iran later on Friday, according to the official IRNA news agency.

Even if the blasts turn out to be unrelated, in the direct sense, this will raise serious concerns about the safety of Iran's infrastructure, especially in light of the explosion at the Abadan refinery in May while Ahmadinejad was at the plant.

1810 GMT: Deviant Current Watch. Ali Rezaei, Friday Prayer leader in Birjand and a representative of the Supreme Leader, has said he did not participate in a provincial government meeting because members of the "deviant current" were present.

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