EA Video Analysis: Iran --- 7-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks

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With Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia) meeting next Tuesday in Kazakhstan --- the first high-level discussion of Tehran's nuclear programme since last June --- a 7-Point Beginner's Guide to what is involved and what is likely to happen.

1. THE ISSUES
2. WHERE ARE WE RIGHT NOW?
3. SO WHAT ARE NEXT WEEK'S TALKS? AND WHAT WILL THEY BRING?
4. WILL THEY SUCCEED? (OF COURSE NOT.)
5. SO WHY ARE THEY BEING HELD?
6. WHAT'S NEXT?

7. SO EVERYTHING WILL BE SOLVED IN SEPTEMBER?

And be sure to stick around for the closing line....

Iran Live Coverage: A New --- and Genuine --- Offer in the Nuclear Talks?

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2055 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Amid the inevitable political spin around the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme, Al Monitor hands over its summary to David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security.

Unsurprisingly, Albright, with a long-time pattern of hostility towards Tehran, is selective in trying to present an IAEA condemnation of the Islamic Republic. He introduces the new charge that the Tehran Research Reactor, known for its production of medical isotopes, is testing fuel for a heavy water reactor at Arak. Then he puts out the line that new centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant --- even though Tehran says they are for 5% uranium only --- are an ominous power play by Iran: “The depressing news is they think they’re strengthening their position by racing ahead with the installation of all these machines."

Al Monitor helps out Albright with the unsupported assessment, "Another possibility is that Iran — despite its frequent protestations to the contrary — is seeking to make nuclear weapons or at least become a “virtual” nuclear weapons state with the capacity to build bombs quickly." Somewhat confusingly, it has the later contradiction --- which is based on information from the IAEA report:

The good news in the report is that Iran in December resumed sending some of its 20%-enriched uranium for conversion into fuel for the TRR. While Iran has added to its stockpile of 20% uranium since the IAEA's last report in November, it is still below what is believed to be an Israeli red line for possible military action.

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Iran Analysis: US-Europe Strategy --- Break Tehran's Economy for "Real" Nuclear Talks in Autumn

The US-European strategy is to continue with aggressive sanctions to force Iranian concessions --- the "stop, shut, and ship" of suspended 20% enrichment, transfer of 20% stock out of Iran, and closure of the Fordoo enrichment plant --- at the outset of any negotiations.

But when will that occur? Certainly not at the forthcoming talks on 26 February in Kazakhstan between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia)?

Western officials give the answer....

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Iran Analysis: The US Makes a Non-Offer on the Nuclear Talks

Appearing alongside the European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers in the nuclear talks with Iran, new US Secretary of State John Kerry met in Washington said he looked forward to Ashton's "critical effort" in high-level discussions with the Iranians on 26 February in Kazakhstan.

"We hope that the talks in Almaty in a few days can show some further progress, perhaps open some additional opportunities," Kerry said.

However, the Secretary of State's rhetoric was put in context by the revelation from "Western officials" of the offer to be made to Iran. In exchange for Tehran's steps to close its enrichment plant at Fordoo, which produces 20% uranium, the US and its allies will lift sanctions.

Well, not all sanctions. Not the sanctions levied in 2010, following the American rejection of the Iran-Brazil-Turkey offer in the Tehran Declaration. Not the sanctions levied in 2011 or 2012, including last July's European cut-off of oil imports from Iran and insurance for Iranian oil tankers anywhere in the world. Not the restrictions on Iran's financial and banking sectors, including international transactions via the SWIFT system and payments in Euros or dollars.

No, the only sanctions that may be removed --- in exchange for the "stop, ship, and shut" demand of the US and Europe over 20% uranium, --- are those imposed by Washington ten days ago.

Specifically, the US will lift the ban on transfer of gold and precious metals to Iran. The significance of that measure is that it chokes off alternative forms of payment for Iran's oil and gas, such as Turkey's transfer of gold to Tehran --- which increased 11,000% in 2012 --- for natural gas.

This is only a modified version of Washington's position since last June's stalemate in Moscow at the last high-level talks. First, Iran makes the major concessions on its nuclear programme, giving up 20% uranium enrichment, then there will be negotiations.

This is not the "reciprocity" proclaimed by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last autumn. It certainly is not the reciprocity that will be demanded by the Iran.

At best, then, the talks in Kazahstan in ten days are "holding" discussions to stave off military action while Iran endures another six months of economic pressure.

Then the discussions will resume in September, after Iran's Presidential elections. And Washington can then say it is making a genuine offer of "reciprocity": if Tehran will shut the Fordoo plant, the US will lift the sanctions imposed on 6 February 2013.

Iran Special: What the Supreme Leader's "No Direct Talks with US" Really Means

The Supreme Leader did not kill off negotiations yesterday. Even as he laid down some tough lines --- to his officials as well as the US --- he signalled that they are alive, if only to hold far more dangerous alternatives.

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Iran Analysis: The Real Explanation for the Delay in New Nuclear Talks

Last week, a couple of curious stories emerged about the proposed resumption of nuclear talks, suspended since a high-level meeting in June in Moscow, between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, Russia, France, and China). 

Julian Borger of The Guardian declared, "Nuclear Talks with Iran Delayed" because of "internal wrangling" in Tehran. Laura Rozen echoed, "Iran Seen Stalling on Date for Nuclear Talks".

There had to be an explanation --- beyond the blame of Tehran for "internal wrangling" and the declarations of Western officials --- for the clash between Iran's public position welcoming new discussions and the line fed to Borger and Rozen.

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Iran Special: 5 Steps for a Breakthrough in the Nuclear Talks

1. THE US AND EUROPE WITHDRAW THE "SHUT" FROM "STOP, SHUT, AND SHIP"

Some key Iranian officials have not been that far removed from the "Stop" and "Ship" demands of Washington. President Ahmadinejad, for example, has repeatedly suggested that Iran suspend its enrichment of 20% uranium in exchange for a guaranteed supply from outside powers.

The US and the European 3, however, have maintained the insistence on the closure of the recently-opened Fordoo enrichment plant, located in a mountainside in central Iran. Their argument appears to be that Iran could accept a deal now but, at any point, could re-start 20% enrichment with the installed centrifuges at Fordoo.

That argument has always seemed curious to me. Resuming the enrichment process is not a simple process like turning on a tap. More importantly, an agreement can include provisions for inspection and oversight of Fordoo's development. So why not let the plant operate for enrichment of up to 5%?

If the resumption of talks is announced, watch for any indication from Washington, London, Paris, or Berlin --- possibly done discreetly --- that "Shut" is no longer a requirement.

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Iran Special: New York Times Notices Important Nuclear Story...Four Months Later

Because Washington still envisages that it can get Tehran to agree to its conditions --- a suspension of all 20% uranium enrichment, a shipping of the existing stock outside the country, and a halt to operations at Fordoo --- it gave the lead to David Sanger and James Risen for their article today.

Those clues to the politics and propaganda of the Obama Administration, rather than journalism on Iran's nuclear programme, is the real value of The New York Times coverage.

Even it is sometimes months late.

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The Latest from Iran (16 December): Is Tehran Ready for Concessions on Nuclear Programme?

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The Latest from Iran (15 December): Ahmadinejad Jabs at the Revolutionary Guards

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2050 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Here is one way to make the regime mad --- give a prize for freedom of thought and human rights to political prisoners....

Foreign Minister Ramin Mehmanparast lashed out today at the European Parliament's award of the Sakharov Prize to imprisoned lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh and filmmaker Jafar Panahi, under threat of a six-year sentence: "Unfortunately, the European Union and its affiliated bodies have a selective approach to and objectify human rights matters, and pursue their political objectives by raising such issues."

Appearing to miss the point about the recognition of Sotoudeh, a prominent defender of accused activists, and Panahi, Mehmanparast continued, "Instead of offering awards on the basis of political goals, the European Parliament should deal with countless instances of rights violations in European countries such as the miserable conditions of asylum seekers and immigrants, discrimination against Muslims and the suppression of legitimate socio-economic demands of Europeans."

Press TV adds to the wayward criticism by failing to mention in its article that Sotoudeh is behind bars and Panahi is under effective house arrest.

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Iran Analysis: Why There is Much Posing --- But No Progress --- On Nuclear Talks

Nuclear negotiators Catherine Ashton & Saeed JaliliWhat is not being made explicit is that the US does not expect reciprocity from Iran. It expects those unilateral concessions.

That offers a stark prospect for Tehran. The Islamic Republic has proclaimed loudly that it wants the renewed talks with the 5+1, accepts the January date, then it does so with the signal that it is willing to make those concessions.

Which is why I'm betting that next week, next month, and beyond January, we will be in a Groundhog's Day of this chatter --- and then the declared March "window" will close for the Iranian Presidential elections.

And then?

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