The Latest from Iran (4 November): A False "Breakthrough" on the Nuclear Issue

The Latest from Iran (3 November): Will the Political Fighting Stop? (Probably Not.)

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1740 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. The head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, has said Iran will increase its naval presence in the Persian Gulf, near three islands claimed by the United Arab Emirates.

"The security of the Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf is part of the various strategies of the naval force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," Jafari said at a ceremony inaugurating a fifth "naval defense zone" at the port of Bandar Lengeh.

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EA Video Analysis: The New York Times Muddled the Story of "Secret US-Iran Nuclear Talks" --- But Why?

See also EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the Iranian Nuclear Programme

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In our latest Experts' Guide to Iran, we explain how a dramatic New York Times story of "secret US-Iran nuclear talks" missed the essential context --- namely, that Tehran has not stopped pushing for renewed high-level negotiations, trading a suspension of 20% enriched uranium for an easing of Western sanctions, since the stalemate of the last formal encounter in Moscow in June.

Then we get to a bigger muddle, stirred by the Times' vague references to its sources --- who revealed the US-Iran contacts, with supposed hopes for public negotiations after an Obama re-election in November, and why?

Iran Audio Feature: The Real Story about the "US-Iran Nuclear Talks" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about The New York Times' dramatic but misleading story on Sunday about possible US-Iran "back-channel" discussions leading to high-level talks on Tehran's nuclear programme after the re-election of President Obama.

Offering the "real" details, such as the Iranian quest to get renewed negotiations on its proposal to swap enrichment of 20% uranium for sanctions, I came back to the starting point --- until the US and Europe withdraw their demand for unilateral concessions by Tehran ahead of talks, there is no prospect for an agreement in November or in any other month.

To listen to the discussion, open The Daily's homepage, click on the programme on 22/10, and go to the (1):01.52 mark.

Iran Analysis: A Diplomatic Dance Towards Renewed Nuclear Talks?

The Supreme Leader reviews military forces on Friday in North Khorasan Province

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An interesting juxtaposition of regime messages on Friday....

The Supreme Leader, on the third day of his trip to northeastern Iran, told a military audience that the Islamic Republic was the only force checking the "war-waging impulse of power-seekers". His Foreign Ministry, however, had a far more conciliatory message via State news agency IRNA:

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Iran is ready to show flexibility to remove the West's concerns, but this move should have reciprocal measure, too....Iran can move toward eliminating concerns of the West, but the other side should guarantee Iran’s nuclear and enrichment rights for peaceful goals....In talks with Group 5+1, Iran was ready to solve all stated concerns step by step and in a mutually agreed framework.

Mehmanparast's statement is the Iranian response to a diplomatic development in the "West".

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Iran Special: The US Nuclear "Experts" at ISIS --- When Propaganda Replaces Analysis

EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the Iranian Nuclear Programme

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ISIS Founder David AlbrightIf the ISIS was to admit any evidence that Iran is not on the verge of weapons-grade uranium --- indeed that Iran has been converting a good part of its uranium to non-military uses --- then it would undermine the demand of the US and European powers that Tehran has to shut down its enrichment, close down its plant, and ship out the 20% stock.

That cannot be entertained, because ISIS's analysts are committed to "Stop, Shut, and Ship". Thus the report is not just an error in analysis. With its assumptions, its speculations, and its ignorance of vital evidence, it is propaganda in support of a political quest.

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Iran Interview and Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Show Begins with Washington Post --- An Easy Ride on Nukes, And Nothing on Human Rights

An extract from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's interview with Piers Morgan of CNN

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Perhaps most striking is the Washington Post interview is the lack of concern with any developments inside Iran, and thus any consideration that these may be linked to the Islamic Republic's foreign policy. There is nothing here on the economic situation, nothing on the political manoeuvring within the system, nothing about the 2013 Presidential election, and --- perhaps inevitably --- nothing about the post-2009 repression and human rights.

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Iran Interview: Middle Class Suffers, But Regime Will Take "Fair Package Deal" on Nuclear Program --- Iranian Analyst

The middle class feels it more than other sectors. The poor remain poor, and as always, rich people are less affected. It is the middle class --- the sector which protested the most for change in Iran following the 2009 elections, and the people who have the potential to change --- who have been hit the hardest, because they are becoming poor, and their influence diminishes. It follows that the sanctions decrease the likelihood of political change in Iran. People are increasingly dependent on the government, and the likelihood of an uprising while risking their source of income, will be lower.

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Iran Document: Tehran's Official Proposals in the Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Moscow Nuclear Talks, 18-19 JuneThe file consists of three major sections:

1. Iran's Package of Proposals to the world Powers
2. Evidence and documents proving that uranium enrichment is Iran's inalienable right despite the western allegations
3. And Iran's response to the proposals offered by the world powers

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The Latest from Iran (21 June): A Silence in Tehran

1355 GMT: Justice Watch. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi, speaking to the “Human Rights and National Security” summit, has claimed that the "architect" of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists has been identified and arrested.

Moslehi said earlier this week that 20 people were arrested in connection with the cases, and the Ministry had claimed that “the key perpetrators" of the assassinations of Majid Shahriari and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan had been detained.

Moslehi also claimed that Iran had blocked the US, Israel, and the British intelligence service MI6 from carrying out a "massive cyber attack against Iran's facilities" after the Moscow nuclear talks. He added, "They still seek to carry out the plan, but we have taken necessary measures."

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Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The West Looks for an Iranian Crash

Throughout this spring's nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, France, Russia, China), I have used the metaphor of the game of "chicken", in which two drivers aim their cars at each other and accelerate. The question, from Istanbul in April to Baghdad in May to Moscow this week, has been whether one or both sides would swerve to get an agreement on Tehran's uranium enrichment or whether both were preparing for impact.

The past 48 hours, for all the muddle during the third round of negotiations, gave us an answer.

The Iranians, after taking an unsuccesfully vague line in Baghdad, were ready to hit the brakes. The US and Europe are not --- if Iran will not give way, it should brace itself for the crash.

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