The Latest from Iran (15 January): The Regime's Fizzling Displays

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mehdi Yarmohammadi, who worked for Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

1610 GMT: Energy Watch. Iranian officials said natural gas consumption had hit a record high due to cold weather, despite recent subsidy cuts.

Earlier this month, the officials had said consumption had dropped about 5% since the introduction of the cuts.

1545 GMT: Execution Watch. Kurdish detainee Hossein Khezri was executed in Oroumiyeh in northwestern Iran this morning.

Khezri was accused of being a member of the Kurdish insurgent group PJAK. He was arrested in July 2008 and sentenced to death in July 2009 for mohareb (”war against God”) and “endangering state security."

Click to read more ...

WikiLeaks and Iran: Tehran Politics Collapsed the 2009 Nuclear Talks

With another round of discussions on Iran's nuclear programme soon to take place in Turkey, this document from WikiLeaks is an important snapshot of why the last set of talks between Tehran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) failed to make progress in autumn 2009.

At the time and since, the Iranian Government and its defenders have blamed the "West" for duplicity that broke down the talks. EA's interpretation, based on sources, was very different: while there was still ground to cover before a resolution, the primary reason for the suspension of discussions was domestic opposition to President Ahmadinejad's quest for an agreement.

This WikiLeaks document supports our analysis....

Click to read more ...

Iran Text and Analysis: The Latest Report on Tehran's Nuclear Programme

These conclusions in the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme are far from dramatic. Much of the wording could have been taken from any IAEA finding of the last two years: there is no evidence that Tehran is shifting uranium to make a nuclear weapon, but the Agency cannot be sure because it has not gotten access to all areas of the programme. 

No, what is notable about the IAEA report is the "spin" being put on it by media, fed by unnamed officials. On almost every occasion in the last two to three years, reporters from leading US newspapers would have trumpeted that the IAEA had shown Iran was on the verge of material for at least one bomb in the next year and that Tehran was guilty of hiding this effort.

Yesterday, however, that guilty verdict was missing.

Click to read more ...

Iran Guidance: How Should the US Talk with Tehran?

An EA correspondent writes:

Marginalising Ahmadinejad and his stubbornly anti-Western thought is the only way forward for meaningful dialogue with people inside the regime, but even then at the cost of throwing the human rights issue under the train: no regime insider, not even more flexible ones such as Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, will come to terms on that front.

Click to read more ...

Iran Snapshot: The Nuke Talks Take Over

UPDATE 1420 GMT: In the middle of Agence France Presse's report on the speech of President Ahmadinejad, this curious reference: "On Tuesday, Iran informed the six powers that it was ready for talks with them on November 23 or December 5 in Istanbul, according to a European diplomat."

Up to now, indications were that the proposed date was 15 November.

UPDATE 0910 GMT: Mahmoud, Let's Cut to the Chase. A lot of posturing by President Ahmadinejad in a speech in Qazvin in central Iran today, after he opened, "Iran is ready to hold talks on equal conditions to help settle ongoing problems, ease international concerns and establish peace and security in the world."

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (17 October): How Much Can Regime PR Do?

2020 GMT: Subsidy Watch. Pro-Government MP Jafar Qaderi has said that in future support payments for subsidy cuts will be paid in goods.

1725 GMT: Rumour of Day. Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Ministry of Intelligence has detained a delegation sent by Hashemi Rafsanjani to Qom in advance of the Supreme Leader's visit.

1710 GMT: Currency Watch. Khabar Online reports that the value of the Iranian toman, after weeks of attempts to stabilise its value, has now dropped on the open market. While the "official" Central Bank rate is 1050 tomans to the US dollar, the market rate has now reached 1090 tomans to the dollar.

1555 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Islamic Iran Participation Front member Davoud Solaimani, who was released on bail on Thursday, returned to Rajai Shahr Prison today when a prosecutor refused to confirm his temporary leave.

Soleimani was detained soon after the June 2009 elections.

Click to read more ...

Iran Breaking: Nuke Talks to Resume?

This was the first clue we had that there might be a resumption of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, France, China, and Russia) on Tehran's uranium enrichment programme. From Press TV:

Iran's Foreign Minster Manouchehr Mottaki has flown to the Belgian capital, Brussels, to attend a key gathering of 26 countries meant to look at the impact of recent flooding on Pakistan.

Mottaki will join foreign ministers and dignitaries from the "Friends of Democratic Pakistan" on Friday to urge Pakistan to pledge far-reaching political reforms. 

Co-hosts EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi and US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, will also attend the gathering. 

While nothing there said "nukes", it was notable that Mottaki and Ashton, who has been making noises about a return to the negotiating table, are in the same place, as is Holbrooke, who has been a keen supporter of engagement with Iran on regional issues.

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: No Liberty --- The Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Diversion...Again

0645 GMT: Sigh....

Yesterday we began with a letter from detained activist Majid Tavakoli to Iranian students, a letter which I think articulately --- and poignantly --- set out the extent of the Government's repression but held out hope: "Despotism's palace is shaking on its foundations."

At no point did Tavakoli, sitting in Rajai Shahr Prison, expend his ink on Iran's nuclear programme or its relations with the West. The emergency and confrontation was much closer to home, and the aspiration had little to do with uranium: "I know that we will be together to joyfully celebrate liberty."

This morning opens far differently, thousands of miles away. Phillip Stephens of The Financial Times writes an account of discussions amongst the West's best and brightest at the Aspen European Strategy Forum, "Caught Between Bombing Iran and an Iranian Bomb".

"Iran" is not necessarily about a day-by-day fretting about the Bomb and Apocalypse. That scenario only feeds into the rhetoric of a regime all too ready to deal with more important matters --- for example, the suppression of dissident --- by holding up the US and its allies as menaces ready to strike Tehran.

No, rather than offer the easy answer or prescription, "It's all about nukes", a day-by-day assessment might begin with regard to the Iranian people and their political, economic, social, and religious situation. Far from Aspen's lavish banquets and its chit-chat, that might be the best way to approach Majid Tavakoli and hundreds --- thousands --- of others like him.

Click to read more ...

Iran Interview: The State Department's New Man for Tehran

UPDATE 1420 GMT: An EA correspondent adds: 

The resignation of John Limbert was almost entirely because he had only a one-year leave of absence from his faculty position with the US Naval Academy. If he was a bit frustrated, I think it would be more accurate to say that he was in a learning mode for the entire time. He has almost always served overseas and was not familiar with the Washington policy process. 

Limbert's expertise on Iran is without parallel, but I was always sceptical that he could translate that into policy actions while swimming with the likes of officials like Dennis Ross and other denizens of the policy deep. 

As head of the Northern Gulf desk in the State Department, a lot of Dibble's effort went into Iran. He is no match for Limbert in terms of Iran expertise, but neither is anyone else. Dibble is a bit more of an operator, so the State Department could be trading depth of expertise for policy acumen. There is a question of how long Dibble is slated to be in the post: it is not really clear that anyone can come in temporarily and have a major impact. He does have a really smart and experienced staff.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (25 September): A Squeeze, a Meeting, and a Nuclear Signal

1115 GMT: Human Rights Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports 1952 cases of rights violations in the last month, including firings, intimidation, and detentions.

1100 GMT: Economy Watch. The Iranian Labor News Agency offers the frank observation, "Some Iranian officials recently confirmed the existence of Mafia [organised crime] in the country’s import market. However the [extent of the] economic monopoly...still remains unknown."

Iranian officials have not announced the names of the "monopolists" but the report says "political activists" presume they are "connected with high powers". 

0650 GMT: And in Tehran. But will the Iranian political establishment back Ahmadinejad as he presses for the renewed talks on uranium enrichment?

Click to read more ...