The Turkey-Israel Relationship: Reports of its Death are Premature

Ali Yenidunya, who started as a blogger on Enduring America this week, has written an extensive analysis for our partner site Libertas considering the relationship between Turkey and Israel in light of the Gaza conflict. Even though Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly criticised Israeli actions, Yenidunya argues that there are strategic reasons why the Ankara-Tel Aviv alliance will remain firm.

Read the full analysis....

Enduring America on the Road Today

I'll be in Dublin today for a one-day conference, held by our partners at the Clinton Institute, on the US and the World after Bush. It should be an eye-opener on how diplomats in Europe, as well as top US academics, are perceiving the new Obama approach, US-European relations, and the global American position.

Updates today and early tomorrow on Obama foreign policy and on the Middle East will be limited, but Canuckistan is keeping an eye out for any major news and you can help us out with tips in the Comment section. Meanwhile, we've got some great analysis coming out today on Iraq, Turkish-Israeli relations, and Life Beyond Mars in South Miami Beach.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (27 January)

Earlier Updates: The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 January)
Latest Post: Obama’s First “Reach-Out” to the Muslim World - The Interview with Al-Arabiya
Latest Post: Transcript of Obama Interview with Al-Arabiya
Latest Post: The Linking of Clenched Fists - Israel, Gaza, and Iran

11:50 p.m. When Hamas Isn't Extreme Enough....Make of this what you will. The Israeli Defense Forces say today's bombing that killed an Israeli soldier was carried out by "an extremist pro-Iranian group, which espouses a militant ideology that surpasses even Hamas' positions in its opposition to Israel. The group receives direct support from Tehran, but is connected in various ways to Hamas as well."

The same article states that a group called the "Jihad and Tawhid Brigades" --- "an Islamist group affiliated by Al Qa'eda" --- called Ramattan TV to claim responsibility for the attack.

So we have an attack supposedly carried out on Israel by "extreme Islamsts"-Al Qa'eda-Hamas-Tehran. The perfect terrorist storm or the perfect information campaign?

A quick search turns up reports that "Jiwad and Tawhid Brigades" were formerly led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a leader of the Iraq insurgency who was killed by US forces in June 2006.

11:40 p.m. Turkey continues to manoeuvre for a Middle Eastern re-alignment in which Hamas is a recognised political party. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan urged the Gazan leadership through Turkish newspapers, ""Hamas should make a decision. Do they want to be an armed organisation or a political movement?" At the same time, Babacan pointed noted Hamas' support, "The party supported by Hamas got 44 per cent of the votes in the last elections. It is impossible to ignore this base."

11:35 p.m. Alive in Gaza has the latest audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, discussing the latest situation, humanitarian relief, and Hamas' alleged control of funds.

11:20 p.m. US envoy George Mitchell, who is in Cairo for the first leg of his Middle East tour, may want to turn around and go home. Really.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton thumbed her nose at Hamas and, indeed, verged on green-lighting another Israeli attack on Gaza. In her first news conference as Secretary, Clinton said:

We support Israel's right to self-defense. The (Palestinian) rocket barrages which are getting closer and closer to populated areas (in Israel) cannot go unanswered....It is regrettable that the Hamas leadership apparently believes that it is in their interest to provoke the right of self-defense instead of building a better future for the people of Gaza.

I cannot find an explanation for this that fits any sensible strategy of diplomacy, apart from the possibility that Clinton is clinging to the idea of working with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, isolating and undermining Hamas. If that is the case, it's a strategy whose time passed three weeks ago amidst the dead in Gaza.

11 p.m. In his first news conference since the Israel attack on Gaza on 27 December, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has pledged to tell US envoy George Mitchell:

Israel does not want peace, otherwise it would not have done this. We need to understand this and tell it to those coming from Europe and America. Israel wants to waste time to strengthen facts on the ground with settlements and the wall.

Abbas set out "red line" demands that would have to be met in any talks, ""We want a state in the 1967 borders, a fair solution to the refugee issue, removal of settlements. There will be no going beyond these points or bargaining." And, for good measure, he tried to put Israel on the moral defensive: "We will do all we can to prove Israel committed crimes that would make your skin crawl. We want the world to give us justice for once."

No doubt Abbas, who is in a good deal of political trouble even amongst his West Bank base, is playing to the Palestinian galleries. To what extent, however, is he serious about taking this position into talks with Mitchell? The answer to that will reveal if Israel's operations in Gaza have effectively ruled out any meaningful negotiations, at least in the near-future.

6 p.m. Gazan photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, speaking to Alive in Gaza, reports "limited [Israeli] ground troop presence" moving into Gaza.

4:15 p.m. Hamas claims two people have been wounded by an Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza. Reports indicate all border crossings have been closed following the killing of an Israeli soldier and a Palestinian farmer this morning.

3 p.m. It appears the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority has tried to get political breathing space by delaying Presidential elections until 2010. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas had said that elections would take place in April, but that intention has been undermined by the effect of the Gaza conflict on Fatah's support.

Hamas claims that Abbas' term of office ended on 9 January but Abbas maintains that it runs until the expiry of the Parliamentary term next year.

1:55 p.m. Aid workers are protesting Israel's continued restrictions on their access to Gaza. Charles Clayton, chair of the Association of International Development Agencies (AIDA), which represents 75 agencies, says, "It is unacceptable that staff of international aid agencies with expertise in emergency response are still not given full access into Gaza, and that the crossings are not fully operational for humanitarian and commercial goods."

According to CARE, 89 percent of Gazans have not received humanitarian assistance since the first Israeli attacks on 27 December. About 120 trucks of aid are entering Gaza daily but this is far below the level of 600-800 trucks during last year's cease-fire period.

1:45 p.m. Egypt has proposed 22 February for the start of a dialogue between Palestinian groups, according to several of the factions. Hamas is more cautious, saying "This is among the ideas under discussions and to which we will give some responses in due course."

12:50 p.m. Sporting Reference of the Day. At the press conference announcing envoy George Mitchell's departure for the Middle East, President Obama gave this optimistic assessment, "Compared to steroids, this is going to be a breeze."

Explanation? In 2006 and 2007, Mitchell investigated drug-taking scandals in US professional baseball in 2006/7.

11:35 a.m. The Independent of London reports that the appeal by the Disasters Emergency Committee for aid to Gaza, which the BBC refused to air but which was screened by Britain's ITV and Channel 4 last night, raised £600,000 even before the first broadcasts.

11:30 a.m. An Israeli soldier has been killed on the Gaza border by a bomb near the Kissifum crossing. Local medics say a Palestinian farmer was later shot dead by Israeli forces.

Overnight developments (8:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The major symbolic development is President Obama's interview with Al-Arabiya, his first with any television channel, covering the Middle East and Iran. We've posted the transcript and an analysis. On Israel-Palestine, it offers little of substance, but it's a great statement in tone --- "what I told [envoy George Mitchell] is start by listening, because all too often the United States starts by dictating".

Meanwhile, Israel's own diplomatic move has been to block a French effort to lift the diplomatic and economic blockade of Hamas and Gaza. At the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, France had sought a closing statement that "the European Union would be prepared to hold talks with a future Palestinian unity government that agreed to honor the principles of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process".  Paris also wanted to open up a broad approach to the issue of Israel-Gaza crossings, striking the reference "in accordance with the 2005 agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority".

According to Ha'aretz, " Israeli officials conducted a frenetic diplomatic battle to torpedo the unwanted changes" over two days, persuading the Czech Republic (which currently holds the EU Presidency), the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy to sideline the French initiative.

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 January)

Earlier Updates and Links to Posts: The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (25 January)

10:10 p.m. So We're Hopeless at Diplomacy but....The European Union on Monday put itself firmly behind the US- and Israeli-led plan to block arms shipments to Gaza: ""The EU welcomes the commitment of the United States to contribute to stopping arms smuggling into Gaza and is prepared to identify ways to cooperate in such efforts."

An internal EU paper proposed that European help could include training of security forces, provision of necessary specialised equipment and, a curious and unclear provision, "the creation of alternative incomes".

10 p.m. President Bashir al-Assad, pressing his advantage from Syria's position in the Gaza conflict, has said that there can be talks with Israel but only on Damascus' terms, "If whoever is elected in Israel won't be willing to pull out of the Golan Heights, there will be no negotiations." He added:

We held talks with Israel over recent weeks, but Israel did not convey its commitment to peace talks, and it became clear that they only understand the language of force.

Assad took a no-cost shot at outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, "If Olmert were to come to me today and say that he was ready for peace, what could we tell him? We would tell him that he is a criminal and that we don't talk to criminals."

And the sharp-eyed might care to notice Assad's choice of outlet for his statement: Hezbollah's Al-Manar Television.




6:30 p.m. Reuters, summarising what we've been saying since the start of the Gaza conflict, observes, "Syria eyes strategic gains after Gaza war." A Damascus official lays out the new order: "The stiff resistance in Gaza has proved that Hamas is a political force to be reckoned with. There is a new regional reality and more countries are supporting this view. Turkey is one important player."

5 p.m. Extending the European Union's record of clumsy diplomacy in the Gaza conflict, the EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, said today, "I intentionally say this here - Hamas is a terrorist movement and it has to be denounced as such." Michel made the statement as he toured the town of Jabaliya, which suffered extensive casualties and damage during the Israeli bombardment.

Michel's statement is particularly inopportune, amidst the talks in Cairo seeking cease-fire proposal, as the EU's Javier Solana travels to the Middle East to meet President Obama's envoy George Mitchell and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

4:45 p.m. Turkish Manoeuvres. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, having distanced Turkey from Israel at the start of the Gaza conflict and thus moving closer to Syria and Iran, has taken another public step today. Speaking to the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat, Erdogan said, "Hamas, without a doubt, erred by firing rockets at Israel, but immediately added:

We must consider that Hamas fully abided by the truce agreement with Israel for six months, even though Israel did not. Israel didn't do anything to lift the blockade and open the crossings despite the agreement, and provoked Hamas and Gazans.

Erdogan offered Turkish forces to monitor borders "if they are required to stabilize the truce between Hamas and Israel". He made clear, however, that Hamas had to be recognised openly and, possibly with an eye to the movement's strengthening political position, that "everyone must honor the [forthcoming] Palestinian Authority elections."

In a parting shot at Tel Aviv, Erdogan said, "I am not against the Israeli people, but I am against its political leadership and those who back barbaric killing."

3:30 p.m. Reconciliation? Amidst a relatively quiet day, a possible breakthrough: Hamas and Fatah officials have met for the first time in 10 months. Jamal Abu Hashem of Hamas and Azzam al-Ahmed of Fatah held the discussions as part of the talks in Cairo seeking proposals on a cease-fire and opening of border crossings.

Of course, this is only a small step forward: al-Ahmed told a press conference, "I agreed with [Abu Hashem] in a clear way to have another meeting."

9:30 a.m. A reader, noting yesterday's story that the Israeli Government has authorised a legal defence team for any military officers accused of war crimes, has asked us about the background to the story.

A search on Enduring America for "white phosphorous", "dense inert metal explosives", or "Spike missile" and glance at the stories will give you some idea of the scale of the allegations against Israel. For example, this was our first reference to Israel's apparent use of white phosphorous against civilians, posted on 5 January, two days after the Israeli ground invasion:

6:30 p.m. Following story in The Times of London that Israel used white phosphorous bombs to cover its ground invasion, Moussa el-Haddad, Gaza resident and father of blogger Laila el-Haddad (”Gazamom”), reports “series of bombs in a row, followed by a large white halo, white smoke; people in vicinity cannot breathe…irritation, and exposed areas [of body] become red, blistered, and itchy".

8 a.m. Israel/Gaza/Palestine time: No Israeli reaction yet to yesterday's news of a Hamas offer of a 12-month cease-fire, including an opening of border crossings and European Union and Turkish monitors.

Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted an audio update and photographs from photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, "Empty Tunnels and Terrorist Chickens".

The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (25 January)

Later Updates: The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (26 January)
Earlier Updates: The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (24 January)
Latest Post: How Israel Helped Spawn Hamas

11:15 p.m. Finally, Some White Smoke. After talks in Cairo today, Hamas official Ayman Taha said his organisation is offering a one-year cease-fire to Israel.

This is just an opening move, however. The Hamas delegation has to confirm the 12-month offer with the organisation's leadership in Damascus, and it is linked to a full opening of Gazan borders. Israel's offer of an 18-month cease-fire, presented by the Egyptians to Hamas, held out only a partial opening of crossings.

10:45 p.m. Soft Power, Tehran Style. While aid to Gaza is held up by Israeli restrictions, Iran continues to further its political objectives with assistance. Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani said today that Iran will rebuild the Gazan Parliament destroyed by Israeli air raids.

9:30 p.m. While there were no concrete results from the Cairo talks, Egypt is publicly rushing away from Israel and towards "the Palestinians". In Brussels, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit appealed to Europeans to press Tel Aviv to ease the economic blockade, "I ask the European Union to do (things) very, very quickly to rebuild to help the Palestinians to get out of this crisis. We need to force the Israelis to negotiate and also tell them to open crossings and to give Palestinians a chance to live in a normal way."

Gheit's statement is more rhetoric than substance, however. Egypt is refusing to have foreign monitors on its side of the border, so it is effectively passing the buck to Israel, which is balking at an arrangement on the Gazan side.

Meanwhile, some Europeans are still stuck on the old script of the Palestinian Authority's triumphant re-entry into Gaza. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband proclaimed, ""The reunification of the Palestinians under the recognised and cherished voice of President Abbas is so important."



6:35 p.m. No significant news from the talks in Cairo with Hamas and Fatah delegations. Egyptian officials have issued a holding statement that  "Egyptian efforts to consolidate the ceasefire, reach a [permanent] truce, reopen Gaza crossings and resume Palestinian national dialogue" were discussed.

6:10 p.m. As expected, Israel's Cabinet has approved a measure providing legal protection to its military officers if they are accused of war crimes over the Gaza conflict.

5:15 p.m. Propaganda of the Day. Uzi Mahnaimi, who writes from Tel Aviv for the Times, trumpets, "An American naval taskforce in the Gulf of Aden has been ordered to hunt for suspicious Iranian arms ships heading for the Red Sea as Tehran seeks to re-equip Hamas."

That's not news --- we posted this days ago --- but then Mahnaimi is not a reporter in any meaningful sense of the day. Instead, he's a channel for Tel Aviv's "information" line, which in this case is ramping up the campaign against Iran.

Thus Mahnaimi states that a US ship intercepted a "former Russian vessel" and held it for two days --- again, not news, as we noted the incident when it occurred earlier this week --- and adds, "According to unconfirmed reports, weapons were found." Very unconfirmed: the former Russian vessel had artillery, which Hamas does not use, and no further arms were found when it was searched in report.

Of course, this doesn't stop Mahnaimi, who tosses in the Israeli suspicion that two Iranian destroyers, sent to help fight piracy off the Somalian coast, are part of a scheme to run weapons to Gaza. And he has more:

Iran plans to ship Fajr rockets with a 50-mile range to Gaza. This would bring Tel Aviv, its international airport and the Dimona nuclear reactor within reach for the first time.

Of course, Iran may be supplying weapons to Hamas but this story is Israeli-inspired misinformation, of value to Tel Aviv's political schemes but worthless for any analysis of the aftermath of the Gaza conflict.

3:30 p.m. Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Beirut, has issued a defiant statement about the attempt to block arms shipments to Gaza: "We will continue to get weapons into Gaza and the (West) Bank. Let nobody think we will surrender to measures. Perhaps matters will get more difficult, but we are ready to ride out any difficulty ... so that the resistance continues."

Hamdan added that those who think monitoring can detect the movement of weapons through tunnels "are deluded".

11:15 a.m. Rafah Kid has posted a series of new photos from Jabaliya with the note, "It's a mess here."

11 a.m. From the diary of Mohammad Dawwas, reprinted in The Independent of London:

22 January: I went to the burns department in Shifa hospital. I've never seen anything like this in my life. These phosphorus burns. Their bodies were black. One person has stitches everywhere. It's worse than killing people. They look like the living dead. I also went to the north, to Beit Lahiya. This was one of the most beautiful areas of farmland. Now it's gone, you can't recognise the place. I wanted to cry.

10:05 a.m. More on the aid front: Iran has established a Gaza Reconstruction Headquarters to "build 1,000 houses, 10 schools and five mosques, and reconstruct 500 shops, a hospital and a university".

10 a.m. Hamas has begun distribution of $52 million of aid in Gaza, with families receiving $1300 for each member killed and $650 for each wounded. The Observer of London has a lengthy background article.

Morning update (9:20 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Important talks in Cairo today with Hamas and Fatah delegations on issues such as the manning of the border crossings. Hamas representatives will meet the head of Egyptian intelligence, Omar Suleiman, who met with an Israeli envoy on Thursday.

As we noted yesterday, if Hamas and Fatah agree on an arrangement in which some Gazan-based members of the Palestinian Authority join the border force, along with guards from European Union countries and Turkey, it will throw a difficult choice back at Israel. Tel Aviv will either to hold out, maintaining its stranglehold on aid and the Gazan economy, or ease its policy on the crossings.