Latest Post: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 200812:30 a.m. We predicted last night that it would be a momentous 24 hours. It was, but not on the diplomatic front, where Israel --- confident that the Arab world was dithering, that Egypt would not go too far in conceding to Hamas, and that the US is still writing a blank cheque --- stalled. Instead, the deadly action was military, as the world woke up to Israel's gradual achievement of "Phase 3".
The Israeli invasion of Gaza City started badly on the public-relations front, as they shelled hospitals, high-rises (including one housing media organisations), and the UN compound and set thousands of residents to flight. The advance faced limited resistance from Hamas fighters, however, and Tel Aviv got a major coup --- at home and we'll see how much abroad --- when its target assassination strategy finally worked with the slaying of Hamas officials, including former Minister of the Interior Saed Siam.
Yet all this merely brings round our question from last night: is tomorrow the day when the Israeli Government finally decides that it will moves toward a cease-fire or will it press for even better terms by squeezing the population of Gaza City, Rafah, etc. further?
Good night and peace to all.
11:45 p.m.
Hamas has confirmed the death of former Interior Minister Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike with five others.The report of the death of Hamas military leader Mahmud al-Zahar was in error, confusing two incidents. He was not at Siam's house; instead, Israeli forces surround al-Zahar's home, killing five bodyguards but failing to locate him.
10:00 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon, capping off a fantastic day for United Nations diplomacy, says that it may take a 'few more days' to work out the technical details of a Gaza ceasefire. Translation: the issue of who monitors the borders, and thus when they open, is a major sticking point.
9:05 p.m. Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad has returned from Cairo and talking to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. I suspect that means no significant announcement until the Gilad discussions are presented to Israeli Security Cabinet on Friday.
8:45 p.m. Hamas tried to re-seize the diplomatic initiative. Its officials have told Egypt that it will agree to a year-long ceasefire if Israel opens the borders immediately and withdraws its forces in seven days.
It's a clever move, if it commands attention. There is no way that Israel will agree to opened borders without an arrangement that it likes on monitoring (which probably means some involvement/oversight by Israeli forces). It is likely to respond, with the killings of Hamas officials this evening, that the Gazan organisation is only reacting from weakness, and there is a good chance that Israeli officials would like to press their military advantage for a few more days.
So Hamas may be able to portray themselves as the party seeking peace, especially if outrage over Israeli hitting of civilian targets, such as hospitals and the UN compounds, overrides the focus on the military "success" of the targeted assassinations. For that to happen, however, it needs support from somewhere --- Arab states, the United Nations, maybe a European leader. That, however, is unlikely in the next few days unless there is a general demand, in the media and in public opinion, for a cessation of the violence.
8:05 p.m. Al Jazeera says former (not present) Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, his brother, and son killed with three others in Israeli airstrike. It does not mention the death of Mahmoud Watfah.
7:45 p.m. Ha'aretz: Hamas military leader Mahmoud Watfah also killed in airstrike on Interior Minister's house.
7:25 p.m Well, this buys Israel some time, deflecting from the row over the shelling of the UN compound, the injuring of journalists in the attack on the Sharooq Tower, the rising civilian death toll, the tangled diplomatic talks....
Al Aqsa TV confirms the death of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in an Israeli airstrike.
7:05 p.m.
Israel claims to have killed Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam and his brother in an attack on his house.6:15 p.m. The report of Israeli response has come from Egyptian television and now from a senior Egyptian diplomat to Agence France Presse. Still no coverage in US or British media.
5:55 p.m. News Alert: It is being reported that Israel has given a "totally favourable response" to the Egyptian proposals for a cease-fire. This follows news that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told Israeli Prime Minister that the US will sign an agreement to measures to prevent the rearming of Hamas.
CNN International and Al Jazeera English, which is carrying the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, have yet to mention the supposed breakthrough.
5:40 p.m. Question of the Day comes from UN official Chris Gunness: ""If there were militants in our compound, why weren't we told?"
5:20 p.m. CNN's website has
a summary of the near-farcical diplomatic fiddling, while Gaza burns, by Arab nations. Anas Qtiesh's commentary,
"Arab Leaders Can't Come Together, Not Even into a Room", is well worth a read.
4:20 p.m. Forgive me, but here we go again: a senior Israeli officers say
the UN compound was shelled, with artillery and white phosphorous, fter Israeli forces came under fire from militants.
UN official John Ging has denied there was any shooting from the compound.
3:30 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, breaking from the US, has condemned Israel attack on UN facilities "unacceptable" and called for immediate cease-fire.
3 p.m. Interesting journalistic approach from Al Jazeera: It has put a "victim's wall" listing the names and ages of the 210 children killed in the Gaza conflict that it has identified so far.
Meanwhile, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev announces that 20 journalists will be allowed into Gaza, but they must be embedded with Israeli Army "for their security". Credit to the CNN correspondent who just scoffed at this, since journalists would have to submit all their reports to the Army for approval.
2:50 p.m. Oops, here is why that "Fatah In, Hamas Out" strategy might not work.
Isabel Kerchner in The New York Times:
Israel hoped that the war in Gaza would not only cripple Hamas, but eventually strengthen its secular rival, the Palestinian Authority, and even allow it to claw its way back into Gaza.
But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control. Protesters accuse Mr. Abbas of not doing enough to stop the carnage in Gaza — indeed, his own police officers have used clubs and tear gas against those same protesters.
2:35 p.m. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is holding a press conference, lambasting Israel and the United Nations.
2:05 p.m. We've put up
a separate post on the significance of the press conference: "Fatah In, Hamas Out", but on a personal note:
In my opinion, "I've just witnessed a disgrace." If there was any hope in the diplomatic process after the Egypt-Hamas talks, it has been sabotaged by Livni's declaration of a "regime change" strategy in Gaza. And I cannot believe that a UN Secretary-General, only hours after his own people and operations were damaged --- perhaps irrevocably --- in Gaza would not only sit there and take the blows but endorse Tel Aviv's approach.
1:45 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, following Ban Ki-Moon's statement, laid the strategy on the line for Hamas out, Fatah in:
""Gaza has been controlled by terrorist organization that doesn't fight for the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is not part of the peace process....We need to achieve a peace process with the pragmatic leadership,
the legitimate Palestinian Government (her emphasis) and simultaneously to address terror, to fight terrorism, to continue the de-legitimisation of Hamas."
1:43 p.m. About those Israeli attacks on UN facilities and personnel this morning; Ban Ki-Moon says he "expressed strong protest and outrage" and demanded full explanation. He then had telephone talk with Israeli Defense Ehud Barak, who said attacks were "grave mistake" and assured "that extra attention would be paid to UN facilities and staff" in future.
Well, that's all right,then.
1:40 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon says he discussed humanitarian situation with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He says UN working with Israel "to alleviate the crisis as much as possible": "I appreciate the Israeli Government's measures to establish a Humanitarian Operations Center and to provide the necessary humanitarian assistance."
1:30 p.m. Important development: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has just issued his press statement after meeting with Israeli leaders. He calls for immediate cease-fire with reopening of borders, halt to rockets and resupply to Hamas, and release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And...
"Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority".
Which means the political strategy of bringing Fatah back to Gaza --- and not recognising Hamas --- continues.
1:16 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the home of Hamas co-founder Mahmud az-Zahar.
1:15 p.m. Nice symbolic touch: someone has placed two Israeli flags in front of the media reporting from the Israel-Gaza border.
1:05 p.m. Resident of Gaza City high-rise occupied by Israeli soldiers (speaking to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin): women and children fled, Israeli troops have detained the men in lower floors of the building.
12:25 p.m. UN official John Ging: UN has not suspended operations but Gaza City headquarters is now cut off: "This is a test of our humanity. It's also a test of our ability to enforce legality and just be by-standers."
Ging says Red Cross building in Gaza City has been hit by Israeli fire. (Latest info: apparently it is Red Crescent hospital building which has been struck.)
12:20 p.m. UN official Chris Gunness: Because the fire in the UN compound is from three white phosphorous shells, it cannot be "put out by conventional means."
12:15 p.m. Israel radio with doctor in Tal al-Hawa hospital: Building hit by Israeli tank shell (not bomb). Fuel tank outside hospital struck, causing large fire.
12:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: Tal al-Hawa hospital in Gaza City hit by Israel bomb with 500 people inside.
12 noon: Smoke billowing from UN aid warehouse, which is on fire after a direct hit from at least three Israeli shells.
11:37 a.m. Shourooq Tower, which house many media organisations in #Gaza, hit by Israeli shelling.
11:35 a.m. Fantastic line from Al Jazeera analyst Mouin Rabbani: "There's a growing feeling in the region that, while Muslims pray towards Mecca, some of their leaders are in fact praying in the direction of the White House."
11:20 a.m. Orwell strikes: As it shells Gaza City and Rafah and escalates ground operations, Israel announces a four-hour "humanitarian" respite for today, even though UN says any aid delivery is impossible.
11:15 a.m. Putting reports together on fighting in Tal al-Hawa: Israeli tanks shelled three high-rise buildings before Israeli soldiers occupied them. Unclear whether residents of buildings fled before or after the tank fire.
11:01 a.m. CNN follows Al Jazeera reports of "main UN aid compound" in Gaza hit by Israeli fire. UN official John Ging says compound hit by artillery and white phosphorous, injuring three UN workers.
11:00 a.m. Thirteen rockets fired this morning into southern Israel.
10:55 a.m. Projection: Israeli forces are making current advance into parts of Gaza City to pursue diplomatic negotiations from a "position of strength".
10:50 a.m. Live on Al Jazeera: Intensive Israeli attack in Tal al-Hawa, in the southern part of Gaza City, with Israeli soldiers taking up positions in high-rise buildings. Reports of similar operations in eastern Gaza City. Thousands of resident fleeing.
This is a significant escalation in operations: in recent days, Israeli forces have moved forward at night, not during the day.
10:45 a.m. Juan Cole, excellent as always, offers
an incisive examination of the humanitarian situation to consider whether Israel is a "rogue state".
10:30 a.m. In case you missed it: Israel turned back an aid boat carrying doctors, medical supplies, and journalists. The Israeli naval force surrounded the boat and threatened to fire unless it returned to Cyprus.
9:45 a.m. Further to our 9 a.m. update "Decision Day?": The Israeli shift in position, sending officials to Cairo and Washington for talks, follows
a mini-climbdown by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who ended his boycott of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and met them yesterday.
9:30 a.m. Split amongst Arab States: Following our update yesterday on Saudi Arabia proposing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council as an alternative to an Arab League emergency meeting,
Egypt is suggesting a meeting on Sunday just before an Arab economic summit in Kuwait.
At least in the short term, two Arab coalitions have emerged: one led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are playing for time because of their dislike of Hamas, and one led by Syria (supported by non-Arab countries such as Iran and Turkey), who want a more assertive political intervention. Whether this has long-term significance will be an important issue, even after the supposed end of hostilities in Gaza.
9:15 a.m. Crushing Hamas? A revealing story, if you can get under the surface,
on BBC radio's Today programme (at 0715). An Israeli military spokesman says that about 300 Hamas fighters have died since the Israeli ground invasion, in addition to a "few hundred" killed in the first week of the aerial assault.
The Israeli figure, however, includes Gazan policemen, an estimated 170 of whom have died. Removing that number, the outcome is that Israel after three weeks has killed at most 430 Hamas fighters. That is out of a (conservatively) estimated Hamas force of 15,000.
9:01 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says that UN personnel cannot get to warehouses to distribute aid because of "red-hot shrapnel" lying around the sites.
9 a.m. Despite the diplomatic moves,
Israel not only continued its bombardment overnight but also "moved into crowded parts" of Gaza City. A mosque was amongst the targets hit, while a targeted assassination attempt hit the home of a Hamas official, missing him but killing three others.
The Gazan death toll is now 1033 --- more than a third are children. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that more than 80,000 Gazans have been displaced.
Morning Update (9 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Decision Day? Three days late, Israel is sending Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad to Cairo. The BBC is reporting that Tel Aviv is also sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the US. Both developments indicate that the Israeli Government is ready to enter negotiations on the terms of a possible cease-fire.
This follows the news on Wednesday that Hamas has put forward its response to Egyptian proposals in an attempt to find a settlement. That said, there are still huge sticking points. Hamas is demanding both that Israel end the blockade and that it have no personnel in the force monitoring the borders. Israel will insist not only on an end to rocket fire but will try and retain the right to strike Gaza if even one launch is made.
And this is only in the short-term, of course. The wider issue is a two-fold question of recognition: does Hamas recognise Israel as a state? And does Israel recognise Hamas as the legitimate political leadership of Gaza?
Friday, January 16, 2009 at 14:53