Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (30 January)

Current Obamameter Reading: Neutral

5:15 p.m. So you want to know the direction of US strategy in Afghanistan? Here's a big clue: the next American Ambassador to Afghanistan is not a diplomat. It's Lieutenant General Karl Eisenberry, who has done two tours of duty in the country, including a 18-month stint that ended in 2007.

This is the first time in my memory that a serving military officer has been appointed as an ambassador, and it effectively means that the military has locked down the key posts in the Afghan theater. Eikenberry will be working with the head of the Central Command, General David Petraeus, the US commander in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, supported in Washington by General James Jones, the National Security Advisor.

5 p.m. The Pentagon is beginning to define the escalation of US troops in Afghanistan. A combat brigade of 3700 troops deployed east of Kabul this week. Five more brigades, including one for training of Afghan forces, could eventually be sent out this year, and the orders for three of those brigades, including a Marine task force, may be issued next week.

With the already-deployed brigade, the three to be deployed, and 5000 support forces, the US will be adding 25,000 troops to the Afghan theatre by mid-summer. That is an increase of about 60 percent in the American troop level: currently there are 19,000 soldiers under American command and 17,000 in NATO's International Security Assistance Force.



1:30 p.m. The US has called North Korea's rhetoric towards South Korea (see 7 a.m.) "distinctly not helpful".

1 p.m. The US Government has expressed scepticism over a deal for power-sharing in Zimbabwe between current President Robert Mugabe and the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai: ""What is important here is actions and not words. We want to see real, serious power-sharing by the Mugabe regime."

7 a.m. (Washington time): North Korea is not exactly in line with President Obama's "reach-out" strategy, scrapping all accords with South Korea. "There is neither a way to improve (relations) nor hope to bring them on track," stated the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, "Inter-Korean relations have reached the brink of a war."

CNN, meanwhile, is paying close attention to the row between Turkey and Israel at the Davos Economic Forum. Ali Yenidunya has posted an analysis for Enduring America.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said at Davos that Tehran is ready to work with President Obama. We're keeping a close eye on this, as there is talk of a secret US-Iran meeting next week --- we'll be posting on that later.

Trying to close one of the notorious chapters in the Iraq War story, Baghdad has refused to renew the license of the US security company Blackwater.

The Latest on Turkey, Israel, and the Crash in Davos (Video and Analysis)

Latest Post:The Turkey-Israel Clash on Gaza -The American Jewish Committee Joins In

Israeli President Shimon Peres says he has had an "amicable" telephone conversation with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan: "I called him up and said, yes, it's nothing against you, nothing against Turkey. We consider you as a friend." Peres added that he had answered "unfounded accusations".

Erdogan, meanwhile, told a conference Friday afternoon: "Nobody has the right to wish that an incident in which 1,300 people died and 5,000 people were injured be ignored.” Even more significant was his linkage of Turkey's emerging role in the Middle East with his domestic political position. Citing the "fundamental slogan" of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish state, “Peace at home, Peace in the world”, he continued, "This is why we mediated between Israel-Syria and Israel-Palestine; we played an active role in the solution of Lebanon conflict.”



Erdogan was careful to express his position as one of opposition to violence and killing, rather than an opposition to Tel Aviv: "We do not blame Israel, the Israeli people and Jews.…We are against anti-Semitism…” He may, however, be facing a challenge from the Turkish military. Brigadier Metin Gurak, the Chief of the Communication Department of the General Staff declared that it was essential to act "in accordance with the national interests" in terms of Turkey’s bilateral military relations with others.

Scenes of thousands of Gazans gathering on streets to show support for Erdogan divided media and the public in Turkey. While some accused the Prime Minister of not putting sufficient emphasis on the "terrorist" identity of Hamas, others appreciated his "determined" and "idealist" posture on the stage in Davos.

Enduring America Exclusive: Secret US-Iran Talks in Near-Future?

"Engagement" may be more than rhetoric: it appears that US and Iranian representatives may be meeting --- very, very quietly --- as early as next week.



Last Monday, an Iranian newspaper closely linked with former President Khatami, Yari News, reported, "Secret talks between Tehran and Washington are about to be ‎held at a European capital." ‎Specifically, "discussions are to be held between Mojtaba ‎Samareh Hashemi, representing Ahmadinejad, and William Perry, representing Obama." ‎Samareh Hashemi is a former Foreign Ministry official who is now a senior advisor to Iranian President Ahmadinejad; Perry is a former US Secretary of Defense and an advisor to the Obama 2008 campaign.

Initially, after a reader pointed us to the story, we treated it as just one of many rumours flying about in the first days of the Obama Administration. But then we put this together with the news, announced yesterday, that US representatives were travelling to Berlin next week for meetings on Iran with China, Russia, Britain, Germany, and France.

And then just now, we found this on "The Cable", a blog associated with the journal Foreign Policy:

Several sources told The Cable that the informal dialogue between senior Americans and the Iranians was much more robust in recent months than has been previously reported. Over the past year, our sources confirmed, former Defense Secretary William Perry and a group of high-level U.S. nuclear nonproliferation specialists and U.S. experts on Iran held a series of meetings in European cities with Iranian officials under the auspices of the Pugwash group.

Pugwash, an activist group committed to nuclear disarmament, convened four meetings, one of which was in the Hague in August and another in Vienna in December. The Iranian delegation included Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's permanent representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The American side included Perry as well as Robert Einhorn, a former Assistant Secretary of State and advisor on non-proliferation to the Hillary Clinton and then Obama campaigns. Einhorn, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is expected to be named Undersecretary of State for Arms Control.

There are a number of cautions around both the Pugwash report and Yari News's claim of a government-to-government meeting. Einhorn has denied his involvement in any talks with Iran, and Samareh Hashemi has denied any participation in forthcoming discussions. A US Government official damped down any expectations based on past contacts:

[The Pugwash process] is just more of the same "Track II" activities that so many of the participants love to think of as secret talks. There are a number of these things going on and it's hard to keep them straight....Absolutely nothing to do with government to government.

Muntazar al-Zaidi Update: Shoe-Throwing Monument Unveiled (And Removed) in Iraq

Latest (Friday evening in Iraq): The sculpture has been removed after a request from the central government in Baghdad. Police visited the site to ensure the request was carried out. The provincial deputy governor said, "We will not allow anyone to use the government facilities and buildings for political motives."

Muntazar al-Zaidi, the journalist who threw his shoes at former President George W. Bush in December, is still languishing in an Iraqi jail, but his act hasn't been forgotten.

An 11-foot-high sculpture of one of the shoes has been erected at the Tikrit Orphanage. It was made by a local artist, assisted by the orphans. The orphanage director said:

Those orphans who helped the sculptor in building this monument were the victims of Bush's war....When the next generation sees the shoe monument, they will ask their parents about it. Then their parents will start talking about the hero Muntadhir al-Zaidi, who threw his shoe at George W. Bush during his unannounced farewell visit.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (30 January)

10 p.m. Hamas has started paying out compensation in cheques, rather than cash, to families whose houses were destroyed in Israeli attacks. About 2700 families have received 4000 euros ($5000).

Because of the shortage of banknotes in the area, it is unclear if the cheques can be cased.



5:05 p.m. Hamas Makes Its Move. The game for the moment is not "reconcilation", at least not with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. Several thousand Gazans turned out Friday in support of Hamas' call for the abolition of the Palestinian Liberation Organization and its replacement by a new umbrella group.

5 p.m. The French Foreign Ministry says that Israel has blocked its attempt to get a water purification station into Gaza. The equipment is being brought back to France.

3:45 p.m. A senior Hamas leader, Khalil Al-Hayya, has appeared for the first time in public since the Israeli attacks on 27 December. He told a rally, "We promised to come out to you either as martyrs or as victors," Hayya told supporters. "Today I come out to you and you are victors."

Al-Hayya urged Hamas fighters to maintain their resistance and promised that the organisation would lead the reconstruction of Gaza.

2:20 p.m. A Gaza Twist from the Past. A Spanish court has named seven Israelis, including Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, in a war crimes lawsuit brought by relatives of 15 Gazans killed in a 2002 bombing.

2:15 p.m. I don't think there is a very good sign. George Mitchell has said, after talks in Jerusalem, ""The tragic violence in Gaza and in southern Israel offers a sobering reminder of the very serious and difficlt challenges and unfortunately the setbacks that will come."

Mitchell could be just damping down expectations, but it may be that talks with Israelis and the Palestinian Authority have confirmed the gaps between the positions of those two actors, let alone the position of Hamas. At the very least, Mitchell's statement indicates Washington will not be putting forth any dramatic proposals during and immediately after his trip.

1:45 p.m. (Israel/Gaza time): US envoy George Mitchell's tour continues today with meetings with Israeli Housing Minister Isaac Herzog and the leader of the opposition Likud party and Prime Ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu. Mitchell then goes to Jordan.

There is no shift in Mitchell's general line, which we have noted in the last 48 hours, of an end to arms shipments to Gaza and a re-opening of border crossings in line with a 2005 agreement brokered by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.