Turkey, Israel, and the Crash in Davos

Update: The Latest on Turkey, Israel, and the Crash in Davos (Video and Analysis)
Related Post: The Turkey-Israel Relationship - Reports of Its Death Are Premature

It was an extraordinary scene yesterday at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, where hundreds of participants and millions in front of their televisions witnessed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s denunciation and his departure before the session was closed.

Erdogan targeted Israeli President Shimon Peres, claiming his "high-toned statements" were made to "hide his guilt". Both Israeli actions in Gaza and the applause after President Peres’s speech were "crimes against humanity".



Asking for an extra minute from the moderator, Erdogan accused Israelis of “being good in killing” before quoting the 6th commandment of the Torah: “Thou should not kill.” When the moderator tied to interject, Erdogan warned him not to interrupt and said, “Davos is over for me.”
In Turkey, hundreds of party members and citizens, Turkish flags in their hands, have been waiting outside the airport to welcome Erdogan, after his ‘heroic attitude’ in Davos. On the other hand, there is a shock in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to diplomatic sources. Senior officials are afraid that this strained relationship with Tel Aviv may diminish the Jewish lobby’s support in the US for Turkey's position on Armenia.

For Israeli diplomatic sources, Erdogan’s speech was just another part of his "attack against Israel”. They labelled his behavior on the Davos stage an incoherent step in Turkey’s efforts to become a rational and constructive part of European Union.

A reaction from the Israeli side is expected tomorrow.

Palinwatch: Dinner With Obama

CNN reports that 2012 Republican Presidential nominee* Sarah Palin will attend the same dinner as President Obama this weekend as part of her visit to Washington:

Guess who's attending the same dinner this weekend?

President Barack Obama and Sarah Palin.

Both will be at the annual Alfalfa Club Dinner Saturday night here in the nation's capital. The club has a small exclusive membership, and a raucous annual black-tie dinner that’s technically off the record.

The Huffington Post has more on why Palin set up that PAC and what she's doing in DC.

*Possibly.

See also:

• Sarah Palin in 2012... maybe?


• The Sarah Palin in 2012 Dream/Nightmare

Obama on Top of the World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (29 January)

16:35 President Obama's envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, will travel to Munich next Tuesday en route to the region.

16:25 The German Foreign Ministry has stated that "senior officials from major powers (United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany and China) will meet in Germany next week to discuss the conflict with Iran over Tehran's nuclear program", the first such meeting since Barack Obama came into office.



15:30 Further evidence of the complications involved in shutting down Guantanamo has emerged. The EU anti-terrorism czar said that the EU will need to time to decide whether it can help the Obama Administration in its goal of shutting down the prison.

14:45 In Davos, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchechr Mottaki responded this way to news of the Obama administration's approach to his government: "We do believe that if the new administration of the United States, as Mr. Obama said, is going to change its policies, not in saying but in practice, definitely they will find the region in a cooperative approach and reaction. And Iran is not excluded from this general understanding in our region."

12:30 Ford has announced a massive loss in its fourth quarter, further evidence of the economic calamity underway and more pressure on the Obama administration to act.

11:30 a.m. The January/February issue of the The Atlantic has an exploration of the greater meaning of Obama's election under the provocative title "The End of White America?"

11:15 a.m. George Mitchell is about to meet Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.

11:00 a.m. Jimmy Carter has said that Hamas must be included in any future Israeli-Palestinian agreement.

10:20 a.m. (London time) This morning's Guardian has more about the Obama administration's letter to the Iranian government.

President Obama Goes to Ottawa

As Enduring America reported yesterday, Pres. Obama will be visiting Ottawa on 19 February. The visit is significant for several reasons beyond that it will be Obama’s first foreign trip since taking office. In making this journey, Obama restores a tradition going back to at least Ronald Reagan whereby the new American president makes his first foreign visit to his northern neighbour (Here’s a Canadian news story about Reagan’s visit, which occurred less than a month before he was shot). Pres. Bush ended this pattern when, to the chagrin of Ottawa, he went to Mexico shortly after taking power.

Typically, when it comes to Canadian-American relations, the significance is mainly for Obama’s Canadian hosts. There is some importance for the new administration, however. Early in his term, Obama will want to look presidential on his first foreign visit through media coverage back home and around the world. The President will have to do this without the trappings of an official state visit since his sojourn will be for private meetings with Canadian officials. He will also be seeking Canadian support for Washington’s strategy in Afghanistan, a potentially tough sell since Canadian participation is widely unpopular among the general public and several of the opposition parties. Over one hundred Canadian soldiers have been killed in action, a higher proportion in relation to national population than that of the United States. The government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has already committed itself to withdrawing Canadian troops from Afghanistan in 2011.

For Canada, the only foreign relationship that really matters is with Washington. Roughly 90% of Canadian trade goes to its southern neighbour and, until very recently, Canada was the United States’ largest trading partner (it’s now second after China). The concern in Ottawa is with talk of greater American protectionism, traditionally associated with the Democrats.

Here’s where it gets complicated. For the first time since possibly the 1930s, a U.S. president is in power who is arguably to the left of the Canadian prime minister. Stephen Harper is not a traditional Canadian Conservative. He is an ideologue who emerged out of a breakaway right-wing party that eventually seized control of Canada’s long-running Tory party.  Philosophically, Harper was much more at home with Pres. Bush than the new president, mimicking the foreign policy of his fellow traveller.

Complicating the picture even more is that a Harper official caused consternation and damage to Obama’s chances for the Democratic nomination back in February 2008. Ian Brodie, Harper’s chief of staff, leaked to the Canadian media  that Austan Goolsbee, an Obama economic advisor, had privately assured a Canadian diplomat that Ottawa had nothing to worry about when it came to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) despite Obama’s public pronouncements in rust-belt states that he would seek to change the treaty. Harper was forced to apologize for the embarrassing leak and Canadian officials scrambled to patch things up with the Obama campaign. Whether enmity still exists may emerge on 19 February.

Then there’s the Igantieff factor but that will be the subject of a future post …

Battles within Obama-land: The Foreign Policy Disputes on Iraq and Iran

Two major stories on US foreign policy, highlighting two critical policy choices on Iraq and Iran:

The New York Times features "On Iraq, Obama Faces Hard Choices".  (Since I wrote that, the Times has gotten to the point: "Obama Seeks Accord With Military on Iraq.) That rather obvious headline is followed by a detailed description of the tension within the White House, a tension we have been highlighting for a week.



Obama's campaign promise for a 16-month withdrawal of all combat troops from Iraq is now being confronted --- publicly and blatantly --- by military commanders. General Raymond Odierno, the US commander in Iraq, indicated yesterday that "it may take a year to determine exactly" when US forces can be withdrawn. Although he said there would be a reduction this year, he pointedly used the word "slowly" when describing the transition from counter-insurgency to stability operations.

Describing last week's National Security Council-military meeting as "a very elevated conversation" does nothing to reduce the suspicion of a battle between the President and the military. Nor does sniping from the sidelines by former Dubya advisors like J.D. Crouch III, who was instrumental in pushing General David Petraeus and Odierno to their current command positions.

Meanwhile The Guardian splashes a Page 1 exclusive on a draft Obama letter to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, replying to Ahmadinejad's congratulations to Obama in November on his election. The letter could signal the opening of US engagement with Iran, but if you read further, it seems that this too may be the start of a battle within the Administration:

The letter is being considered by the new secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, as part of a sweeping review of US policy on Iran. A decision on sending it is not expected until the review is complete.

Obama may be saved in this case, however, from an immediate conflict because of timing. Ahmadinejad faces re-election this spring, and the US decision may be to hold off on an approach until then. Then again (and this has not been noted by the media), if the US is planning to "surge" in Afghanistan, it would seem prudent to open some discussion with Tehran, which has significant influence in the west of the country.

Morning update ( 12:05 a.m. Washington): The significant overnight news is what was not said by President Obama.

A week after his National Security Council first sat down with military commanders, Obama had a two-hour meeting with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and the generals yesterday. His statement afterwards was leading but vague, ""We are going to have some difficult decisions that we are going to have to make, surrounding Iraq and Afghanistan most immediately."

As far as that can be read, it's an indication that there will be troop increases in Afghanistan in the next few months and there will be some decrease in Iraq. The numbers in each case, however, are still up for grabs, as is the strategic approach --- military-first? with or without Afghan President Hamid Karzai? with or without US efforts at nation-building? --- in Afghanistan. Put bluntly, the battles at the moment are not overseas, but within the Administration.

For a clue as to the next development, look for "spin" in The New York Times and The Washington Post in forthcoming days.

Meanwhile, Obama envoy George Mitchell moves to the West Bank today to talk with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas.