The Latest from Iran (4 January): Watching and Debating
Monday, January 4, 2010 at 22:45 
2330 GMT: Mahmoud Down. Signing off tonight with this news --- looks like the latest victim in the cyber-war is President Ahmadinejad's blog.2320 GMT: Another Rights-First Shot from the Obama Administration. Despite (possibly because of) the recent sanctions-related rush of spin in US newspapers, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took a moment to focus on Iran's political conflict today, criticising the regime's “ruthless repression” of protesters: “We have deep concerns about their behavior, we have concerns about their intentions and we are deeply disturbed by the mounting signs of ruthless repression that they are exercising against those who assemble and express viewpoints that are at variance with what the leadership of Iran wants to hear.”
2220 GMT: Have You Made "The List"? Fars News has published the names of the 60 organisations and media outlets "outed" by Iran's Ministry of Intelligence as unacceptable for contact by Iranians.
There are a lot of familiar faces, given that many of these dangerous groups were listed in indictments in the Tehran trials in August: Georges Soros' Open Society Institute is here, as is the Carnegie Foundation, Ford Foundation and the Woodrow Wilson Center, whose scholar Haleh Esfandiari was detained by the Iranians in 2007. Both the National Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute get a mention. So doe the Council on Foreign Relations, the Hoover Institute in California, Freedom House, and of course the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The National Endowment for Democracy, funded but not run by the US Government, also gets a citation, and Human Rights Watch is a definite no-go area.
Looks like we've missed out --- in the United Kingdom, the conference centre at Wilton Park, where foreign agents must gather to plan regime change, is mentioned as is the "Centre for Democracy Studies".
Just one question, if anyone at the Ministry of Intelligence is on Overnight Foreigner Watch: why does Yale get to be the one university to receive the Great Satan's Helper prize? (And, yes, we're already getting furious e-mails from our Harvard friends.)
2200 GMT: Have just arrived in Beirut, where I will be learning from the best specialists on the Middle East and Iran this week. Thanks to EA staff for finding journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with Britain's Channel 4. We've now posted the video of Bahari, who was detained for four months after the Presidential election.
2000 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 News has just broadcast a moving interview with journalist Maziar Bahari who was held in Evin prison for 119 days. We'll post a link when it becomes available. Chief political correspondent Jon Snow also referred back to his exclusive interview with President Ahmadinejad which took place in Shiraz just before Christmas. Ahmadinejad denied troops were intimidating opponents and warned the West not to assume his country was weak.
NEW Latest Iran Video: Maziar Bahari on Britain’s Channel 4
NEW Iran: Five Expatriate Intellectuals Issue “The Demands of the Green Movement”
NEW Latest Iran Video: Interview with Committee of Human Rights Reporters (3 January)
NEW Iran: In Defence of Mousavi’s “5 Proposals”
NEW Iran: The Genius of Washington’s “Strategic Leaking” on Nukes & Sanctions
Iran: Authority and Challenge — Bring Out the (Multi-Sided) Chessboard
The Latest from Iran (3 January): Re-positioning
1540 GMT: I'm en route to a conference in the Middle East (more news tomorrow) so updates may be limited today. The EA team is minding the shop so keep sending in information and analysis.
1500 GMT: The Foreign Menace (see if you are on the list). The Islamic Republic News Agency has just published a long interview with the Deputy Minister for International Affairs in the Ministry of Intelligence ministry. He lists 62 foreign research centres and media outlets, with which all contact by Iranians is considered forbidden. The list includes Yale University, Brookings Institute, Saban Centre, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, New American Foundation, various Iran human rights groups, BBC, Voice of America, and RaheSabz.net.
1415 GMT: Regime Spokesman of Day. Hats off to Kaveh Afrasiabi, who at no point lets analysis get in the way of his re-presentation of the Mousavi statement, "Iran: From Confrontation to Reconciliation" in Asia Times.
Afrasiabi, who has been a loud proclaimer of President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy since 12 June, wears the shoes of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei in announcing a Mousavi "retreat" (perhaps needless to say, he does not consider the actual statement). He is pleased to report that many figures, including former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, are now behind "unity" So expect "a qualitative turn-around from the tumult of the past seven months".
And those who haven't read Afrasiabi's script? No worries, for the Green movement, given "an opportunity to drum up its democratization demands" with the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri", has been stopped by "a serious miscalculation" with its resort to violence on Ashura
1340 GMT: Engagement Revised. A delegation from the European Parliament has postponed its trip to Iran.
1330 GMT: Reuters is reporting from Iran state television the assertion of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi: "Several foreigners are among those who were arrested on the day of Ashura....They were leading a psychological war against the system....They entered Iran two days before Ashura."
1020 GMT: Irony Defined. Press TV's website features this headline, "Iran deplores French crackdown on protesters".
Still not convinced of our definition? Here is the opening sentence: "Iran's Foreign Ministry has lashed out at France over resorting to violence in dealing with protesters in the country, describing it as violation of human rights."
0930 GMT: A Platform for the Green Movement? Five Iranian intellectuals abroad --- Abdolkarim Soroush, Akbar Ganji, Mohsen Kadivar, Abdolali Bazargan, Ataollah Mohajerani --- have put out a statement of objectives. We are summarising in a separate entry.
0920 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is focusing on Iran's regional ties, especially in areas like energy and transportation. He is in Tajikistan before moving to Turkmenistan.
0910 GMT: We've posted the video of an interview with Saeed Habibi, a senior member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters who is in hiding in Iran.
0720 GMT: The Clerical Opposition? We are looking for further information on the tantalising report, offered late Sunday, that Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has met separately with Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili and with Ayatollah Sanei in Qom.
0710 GMT: Another low-key start to the political day in Iran, as it appears that the regime ponders --- amidst its threats --- how to deal with the persistence of protests, the Green opposition gathers itself --- amidst arrests --- for the next big show of resistance, Mir Hossein Mousavi watches the response to his 5-proposal statement, and conservative/principlist politicians and clerics look for support for their alternative approach.
We have two guest analyses. Babak Siavoshy puts forth a defence of Mousavi's statement, while Gary Sick praises the "strategic leaking" of Barack Obama amidst domestic pressure for US sanctions against Iran and its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, a Sunday testimony both to Iran's ascent up the US news agenda and the problems, as well as the possibilities, that this brings. One of the showpiece Sunday talk shows, ABC's This Week, turned over part of its Roundtable to a discussion of recent protests in Iran.
Unfortunately, after paying token attention to the internal developments --- "Every time this cycle happens, the Iranian opposition seems to come back stronger and stronger" --- David Sanger of The New York Times promoted his Sunday article (see yesterday's updates) and declared, "The first priority is the nuclear programme." Cue another round of chit-chat among the talking heads on sanctions and the reduction of Iran's political battle to "Is it more or less likely for the Iranian regime to want a deal with the West?"
ABC News, Abdolali Bazargan, Abdolkarim Soroush, Akbar Ganji, Ashura, Asia Times, Association of Combatant Clergy, Ataollah Mohajerani, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, BBC, C4 News, Carnegie Foundation, Channel 4 (Britain), Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Council on Foreign Relations, David Sanger, Fars News, Ford Foundation, Freedom House, Haleh Esfandiari, Harvard University, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Hillary Clinton, Human Rights Watch, Iran, Iran Elections, Jon Snow, Kaveh Afrasiabi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Maziar Bahari, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohsen Kadivar, National Democratic Institute, National Endowment for Democracy, National Republican Institute, New America Foundation, New York Times, Open Society Institute, Press TV, Saban Centre, Saeed Habibi, Tajikistan, This Week, Turkmenistan, Voice of America, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Wilton Park, Woodrow Wilson Center, Yale University, the Hoover Institute in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (23)
"Iranian insider predicts regime change" :
A leading figure in Iran's opposition movement,Mohammad Reza Madhi, 46, a former high-ranking officer in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards' intelligence service and once the right-hand man of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has decided it is time to go public. He says it is time to separate religion and politics :
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/investigation/30425/iranian-insider-predicts-regime-change?awesm=fbshare.me_VLaK
Ange, any idea who this guy is? He proclaims much self importance but I've never heard of him. Is he a patriot or just an opportunist?
ASHURA 88 - Highlights of IRAN 27 December 09 - آنچه گذشت در عاشورا ۸۸
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ6g9MeKKhU
Pic
Seemingly he was very close to Khamnei and escaped from Iran in February 2008 after being sentenced to 73 years in jail ; What he says it's what we have been saying everyday here on this forum and what's more, if he has any supports and influences inside the country to help iranian opposition, it's even better.
Ange/Pic,
Re "Mohammad Reza Madhi", this may be of interest: http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0110/Beware_propaganda.html --- Rozen is very well-connected in Washington, so she may also be channelling some official US reaction to the story.
S.
Ange, Pic,
Mohammad Reza Madhi used to be one of Khamenei’s goons. Arshama posted a link to this website http://www.goftaniha.org/2009/11/blog-post_09.html on January 2 on Madhi topic.
If information about Mohammad Reza Madhi provided by goftaniha.org is correct and accurate, Madhi is not clean. Like the rest of IR goons his rap sheet stretches from Atlantic to Pacific Ocean and then back. Madhi claims he is in contact with opposition camp and that is not good. Furthermore, in his interview with Bangkok Post he is not saying anything about Ahmadinejad mental health or inevitable implosion of IR regime that we already did not know. I think he is trying to raise his profile to save his own neck.
To me the situation feels like millions and millions of people are standing, calm and still, and taking a breath together to think over what just happened. Perhaps it was not wise for the Regime to point out last Wednesday that it can only muster at most a few hundred thousand people in Tehran, and that's including those bussed in from villages. I think even many Greens were surprised by the poor turnout at the government demonstrations, a clear sign that the vast majority of the population is on the side of those who were beaten on Ashura, not those holding the batons. Together, the Iranian people will decide what to do next, and I'm confident it will awe the world once again!
Remember this video clip http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAaPnAQDHhU&skipcontrinter=1
that shows two police vehicles hitting and running over a protester? According to Peyke Iran the victim was this young man: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11662
His name is Amir Arshad Taajmir. He was 25 years old and worked as Sound-man in radio. His mother, Shhein Mihan Far is an employee of Seda v Sima, the government owned broadcasting station.
Megan
In your link posted by Ashama, there is a picture showing him with a nightstick running after the people during the late unrests ! is he still working for the iranian regime ?? and if he asks USA for not to impose any sanctions,( speaking in fact for the sake of the regime ) , so the western countries have to do exactly the opposite of what he says !!
Politic is very hard to understand !!
Scott,
Afrasiabi is a quite questionable character. I encourage you to do a little back ground check on this guy. You will find all sort of interesting things. It does not take much intelligence to deduct the regime is in much worst shape than it was before Ashura. Intelligence Mr. Afrasiabi lacks.
Scott
One point missing is that Mr Adrasiabi, has been an adamant supporter of Mr. AN from the very beginning. In fact he has also been from day one supporter of the AN government and an opponent of the protesters. He has ridiculed all claims of election fraud. Now he is arguing that the green movement crossed the line, and weakened itself by responding with violent action against the violence of the regime. I guess someone should ask him, by the same token, is the AN administration weaker since it started to violently crush protestors, is it weaker cause it resorted to rape and torture in prisons, is it weaker since it killed indiscriminately?
Well I will answer for him. To hide the deep cracks and discord amongst the regimes rank and file and its fractions, Mr. Adrasiabi is trying to show the cracks and weakness of the green movement. This he hopes will strengthen his side. However please note that there is a fundamental difference between self defense and exploit of violence. No green leader (Mousavi / Karoubi and all) will tell people under fire to not protect themselves. It is our duty as Muslims and humans to protect life of ourselves and others. So when a barbaric ruler sends the paramilitary tugs to kill people, it is not considered violence to protect yourself against them, with throwing stones and rocks at them and with surrounding them, disarming them and forcing them to run away.
There are unconfirmed claims that Mohammad ReyShahri the head of the Haj organization has resigned. He was if you remember in a constant battle with AN, over the Haj organization being merged with the Tourism ministry, and only in May received support from the SL to stay in his position. In a public slamming of the AN government the SL reversed AN decision. He also married to the 9 year old daughter of Meshkini.
If you have sources to confirm please let everyone know.
This fellow Afrasiyabi, regime spokesman as you correctly point out, has no credibility. I wonder if anyone in the IRI even believes his rants. I doubt it. But, there are some "pundits" in the West who even quote his nonsense to suite their own agendas. Washington Times (?) I believe it was where a recent article by Slavin was published. Full of half truths and aimed at appeasement. No one believes this any more. Iranians don't anyhow.
that list of 62 is interesting. Last week it was 80 foreign organizations. I wonder which ones didn't make the final cut and why/how it was reduced by 18
All,
Apparently a comment on Mohammad Reza Madhi, the former Iran intelligence officer whose interview was published in the Bangkok Post, was caught in our spam filter, and we did not notice. I have apologised to the reader who sent in the comment.
If you have a comment which does not show up in a couple of hours after you send it, please feel free to e-mail us or put up a follow-up comment flagging up the problem.
S.
A.N. site has been hacked
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=30471195&id=1508993550
Scott,
There were two additional exchanges between reader John and I after 12:12 January 4 at thread "Five Expatriate Intellectuals Issue,The Demands of the Green Movement” . Neither John question to me nor my reply to him are currently shown in the comment section even though they appeared in the comment section after being submitted. Neither John nor I had provided any link in that exchange. I just thought I report this.
Ange and Megan,
(second try)
I am no expert on Goftaniha, but many of Ebrahimi's remarks appear plausible. Nevertheless linking Madhi to the attack on Tehran university in June or July on behalf of a vague photo seems rather dubious. In his interview Madhi says he was in a German hospital at that time, which could easily be verified by investigative journalism. As to Laura Rozen, insinuating Madhi's relationship to Reza Pahlavi and monarchists in general appears dubious as well. Her article reminds me much of typical IRI conspiracy accusations, trying to breed discord between different oppositional groups. Either Madhi is trying to save his own neck, or it is a regime's mise-en-scène.
In its list of conspirators how did the IRGC miss Green Peace?
Everyone knows that "Save the Whales!" is REALLY just code for "Marg Bar Dictator!".
These recent events of Ashura have convinced me more than anything that the Greens either have, or will eventually have, enough support around the country to take down the government- if the Revolutionary Guards are not brought in. Ahmadi is losing support from traditional conservatives and the pious because of his heavy-handed tactics, his willingness to use violence during Ashura, and most of all because of his continued mishandling of the economy. However, the biggest question is whether a desperate regime will bring in the Guards eventually to crush the Greens. If that happens, then one of two things will happen: either a Tiananmen-style destruction of the opposition, or enough regular army and police units will stand with the Greens to inflict a crushing blow on the regime. Either way, things will be coming to a head very quickly.
The coup gov has showed a considerable degree of rational caluclation by not arresting Mousavi and/or Karroubi. Are they concerned about ltra-radical crazies harming them, and thereby triggering a mass revolt? Amanpour's source says security around Mousavi has been tightening - by the Guards! http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/04/moussavis-security/
Bozorg,
This matches the stories from last week --- before the IRNA false story on Mousavi/Karroubi "fleeing Tehran" --- from Karroubi's camp that security had been tightened but that they would not protect him if he left the house. Effectively a "semi-house arrest".
S.
Mr. Marandi was on CNN and questioned by Amanpour his answers are simply ridiculous, false, not to the point and one thing especially caught my attention when he said that the pro IRI staged and bused in demonstrations on Wednesday were the largest ever seen in Tehran. What is this. I mean the level of blatant lies are incredible. He,however, did show signs of being shaken and scared. He was not coherent. Is this what the IRI has to offer the world? Shame on them.