Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?

After twenty rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israel from Gaza in the past week, three Palestinian militants were killed in an Israel Air Force strike in Gaza. "The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will not allow any attempts to attack Israel and will continue to forcefully foil any such attacks," a military spokesman said following the strike.

The IDF operation came hours after an Israeli cabinet meeting and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration, "I view this very seriously. The government's policy is clear, any shooting at our territory will receive an immediate and powerful response." Former Israeli commander Major-General Yom Tov Samia went farther, asserting another war against Hamas is needed and on the way:

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We are before another round in Gaza. I am very skeptical about the possibility that Hamas will suddenly surrender or change its ways without being hit much more seriously than it was during Cast Lead.

We must create a situation in which Hamas runs out of oxygen...[including] a more focused strike with long-lasting results...taking control of certain areas in Gaza.

Samia's words followed those of the current head of Israel's Southern Command, Major-General Yoav Galant. Galant said, "It's true that we are after the first rains and the sun is shining --- but one can see dark clouds in the distance."

Israel: Netanyahu's Post-Cabinet Declarations on Gaza, Settlements, Egypt Fence

On Saturday night, a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declared: "It is the Palestinian Authority that needs to change its ways --- certainly not the Israeli government." On the following day, Netanyahu made his mark at the Cabinet meeting.

Concerning the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu asserted, "I view this very seriously. The government's policy is clear, any shooting at our territory will receive an immediate and powerful response." His tone did not change in discussion on settlements. While claiming that the 10-month moratorium on construction has been implemented, he said the freeze on West Bank settlements is only temporary: "In another eight months, we'll start building again."

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?
Israel: The Reaction to A “More Committed” Washington

Lastly, Netanyahu ordered construction of a fence, at a cost of $1.5 billion, along two segments of Israel's border with Egypt, in an attempt to stem the infiltration of migrant workers as well as terrorist elements into Israel. The Prime Minister said, "I took the decision to close Israel's southern border to infiltrators and terrorists. This is a strategic decision to secure Israel's Jewish and democratic character."

Israel: The Reaction to A "More Committed" Washington

Last Wednesday, its ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren, rebuffed Washington's "two-year time frame": "In the past, attempts to impose time frameworks have not proved either realizable or helpful."

For Oren, the framework of talks should include security for Israel, recognition of the nation as a Jewish state, and an end-of-claims conclusion to the talks. Oren said this would be "a statement of what Israel's goals are and what the Palestinians' goals are, even if the assumption is that they wouldn't be immediately confluent". Referring to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement following PM Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement of a 10-month construction freeze , Oren stated that "these goals can be reconciled through good-faith negotiations."

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Clinton had said: "We believe that through good-faith negotiations the parties can mutually agree on an outcome which ends the conflict and reconciles the Palestinian goal of an independent and viable state based on the 1967 lines, with agreed swaps, and the Israeli goal of a Jewish state with secure and recognized borders that reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli security requirements."

Palestine: The Reaction to A "More Committed" Washington

In an interview on Friday, Fatah Central Committee member and former security commander Muhammad Dahlan said that peace negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel will resume in the coming week.

Dahlan added that, following intense contacts among Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and the Quartet (United Nations, Russia, European Union, and United States), Israel will accept the new proposal. He continued, "We hope the struggle of chairman Abu Mazen (Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas) against the previous negotiating mechanism will bear fruit already in the coming weeks."

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When asked about demands before renewal of negotiations, Dahlan underlined the significance of a settlement freeze and the acceptance of pre-1967 borders. Dahlan said:

All we seek is a year or 10-month building freeze, during which a permanent agreement will be achieved. Palestinians will not accept any manipulation on this issue [final borders].

At the end of this "optimism", there was also a warning. Dahlan said, "The Palestinian people prefer to be cautious when it comes to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," and he declared, "The current settlement [activity] in Jerusalem is aimed at taking it [the city's status] off the negotiating table".

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Change" in the Air Over Peace Talks?

Following claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is close to finalizing an agreement with the Obama Administration for peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, the PA gave its approval for such talks this weekend.

One PA official stated that Netanyahu was now apparently ready to recognize the pre-1967 borders as the basis for future talks and was ready to swap territory between the two countries. He added, "We're beginning to hear new things from Israel. For the first time an Israeli government is willing to negotiate with us on the basis of the 1967 borders, and this is an encouraging move."

"Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians could be relaunched as early as February," added another PA official in Ramallah.

Meanwhile, Egyptian sources told the Cairo-based daily Al-Ahram on Monday that Barack Obama's administration will put forward a plan whereby Israel would commit itself to the establishment of a Palestinian state within two years of the launch of peace talks with the Palestinian Authority.

On Monday, at the press conference following her meeting with Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised greater commitment to achieving a settlement between the PA and Israel:

We know that the Palestinians deserve a state to fulfill their aspirations. The Israelis deserve security to live peacefully side by side with their Palestinian neighbors. The Arab nations have made a very positive contribution in the peace initiative of the Arab League and others. So we’re going to be even more committed this year, and we’re starting this new year with that level of commitment and we’re going to follow through and hopefully we can see this as a positive year in this long process.

On the same day, while addressing lawmakers from his Likud party, Netanyahu said that he sensed "a change in the air":

In recent weeks I have felt that there is a certain change in the air, and I hope that this will mature, allowing the start of the diplomatic process.

We are serious in our intentions to reach a peace agreement.

Israel is ready for a peace process with the Palestinian Authority, without preconditions.

Netanyahu, however, added the caution, "Diplomatic plans said to be in my name that have appeared in the media have no truth."

There is also the standing obstacle of the declaration by PA leader Mahmoud Abbas that there will be no peace talks unless there is a complete freeze on Israeli settlements, both in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Following his meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Abbas repeated,

We have said and are still saying that at the time when settlement construction is stopped and the international legitimacy is recognized, we will be ready to resume the negotiations."

Our stance is known from the past and our stance remains the same - and in agreement with our brothers in Egypt - which is that we have no objections to negotiations or meetings in principle and we do not set conditions.

And then there was the complication of Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman hosted Quartet peace envoy Tony Blair and stated that reaching a final-status agreement within two years were unrealistic:

It is important to hold an honest, open dialogue with the Palestinians without sowing delusions that are disconnected with reality and that will only lead to violence and frustration. It is not possible to reach a full agreement within two years.

This is not a realistic goal. We need to begin direct talks without committing to any timeframe.

On Monday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly was on the 'silent side' but, at least, was "hopeful":

QUESTION: There’s an unsourced report in the Israeli Hebrew language daily Ma’ariv, and there are a bunch of other reports out there elsewhere, talking about the possibility of an imminent resumption of peace talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas under an American plan.

MR. KELLY: I certainly hope so. I hope it’s before that. But whether it’s realistic or not, I can’t say.

MR. KELLY: Mm-hmm.

QUESTION: True?

MR. KELLY: Well, first of all, we’re not going to discuss any of the private correspondence or private discussions we have had with either side, including with the Israelis. I mean, you know what our goal is. Our goal is to get the two sides to agree to sit down and resume the talks, and so all of our efforts really are really directed toward that. And it wouldn't – I mean, it’s not appropriate for me to talk about what may or may not have been in any kind of private correspondence.

QUESTION: But are you on the verge of re-launching the resumption of talks?

MR. KELLY: I hope so. But I don’t have any information to announce on that.

QUESTION: I think we’re talking about the same report here, which says that the U.S.’s latest proposal envisions a Palestinian state within two years. The Israelis say that’s unrealistic. Is this a real report? I mean, is it coming from you guys?

MR. KELLY: I don’t really have any information about the specifics of that particular report.

QUESTION: Is it realistic, though, to think that the Palestinians could have a state within a couple of years?

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit was also still "hopeful" about the future. He told reporter following the meeting between Mubarak and Abbas:

Our position is that the [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] ideas are taking the Israeli position forward.

This is a protracted process and needs patience, clarity and prudence so that the Palestinians do not find themselves in a difficult position.

Gheit and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman are going to be in Washington and the U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell is going to be in the Middle East next week. Abbas' last words were that he would postpone any decision on whether or not to restart the talks until he sees what happens during Friday's visit to Washington by the two senior Egyptian officials.

The story continues without a conclusion: is there any "change" except in rhetoric?