The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front

The Latest from Iran (24 July): Waiting for the Next Move

Iran: Ahmadinejad v. The Conservatives?
Iran Video: The Protests Continue (21-22 July)
The Latest from Iran (22 July): “The Pendulum Swings” Towards Opposition

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2200 GMT: Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, who earlier in the day denounced the appointment of First Vice President Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai, has criticised the "aggressive language" of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "We should urge everyone to use the language of friendship and compassion because the aggressive language used by IRIB will not help resolve any of the problems."

2105 GMT: Stupidity and Sense. In the Christian Science Monitor, an opinion piece by a Joshua Gleis decides to forego any consideration of events in favour of making stuff up: "When Middle Eastern powers feel trapped, they tend to swing blindly at outside states.". Therefore Iran has "the power to make things turn ugly fast". It could "might decide to ratchet up the tension with Britain", on the basis that it detained 15 Britain soldiers in March 2007 for crossing into Iranian waters. It "may decide to use its proxy force Hezbollah to carry out a deadly terrorist attack". It could launch "a major terrorist attack, like the one it carried out in 1994 at the Buenos Aires Jewish community center". It might kidnap the Statue of Liberty, holding it to ransom for the missing components for its Nuclear Bomb. (OK, the last one was mine, based on just as much evidence as Mr Gleis has for his "maybes".)

A bit of a relief, therefore, to hear this from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which substitutes a cold appreciation of the current situation for wild fantasies: ""The internal debates going on inside Iran have made it difficult, if not impossible, for them to pursue any diplomatic engagement, not just with us but anyone, like the P5+1 [permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany]. There is so much that is on hold."

2005 GMT: Son Killed, Mourning Dad Detained. A Los Angeles Times blog summarises a story, from Norooz Online, which has been racing around the Internet. On 20 June, Massoud Hashemzadeh was killed by a gunshot to the heart during demonstrations in Tehran. Hashemzadeh was buried in his native village in northern Iran, but the family was barred from holding any commemorative ceremonies.

On Thursday afternoon, security forces and Basiji militia, accompanied by uniformed security forces, went to Hashemzadeh's home. Maybe they showed up because well-wishers insisted on going to the home to offer their condolences. Maybe they arrived because on Tuesday, Hashemzadeh's brother and father told BBC Persian of the authorities' refusal to allow a mourning service.

In any case, after ripping down photographs of Hashemzadeh and messages of condolences, his father was detained. His two brothers, unwilling to let their father be taken away on his own, were detained as well.

2000 GMT: Hours after Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi signed a letter claiming the Assembly of Experts was seeking the removal of Hashemi Rafsanjani as its head (see 1400 GMT), a group of Qom clerics have issued a statement distancing themselves from the Ayatollah.

1700 GMT: Ahmadinejad Stands Tough. The Islamic Republic News Agency has published the President's official letter of appointment of his Vice Presidents, and Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, despite the opposition of the Supreme Leader and many "conservatives", is First amongst them. The list:

1) Mehrdad Bazrpash (head of the national youth office)
2) Parviz Davoodi (highest ranking adviser to the president)
3) Seyed Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi (highest ranking assistant to the president)
4) Ali Akbar Salehi (head of the atomic energy agency)
5) Mohammad Javad Hajaliakbari (presidential adviser in youth affairs)
6) Massoud Zaribafan (head of the martyr's foundation and veteran affairs)
7) Hamid Baghai (head of office of cultural heritage, tourism and handicrafts)
8) Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (highest ranking vice president).

1400 GMT: Curiouser and Curiouser. The ripples from the Rahim-Mashai appointment as First Vice President spread wider and in unexpected directions. The newspaper Parto Sokhan, is headed by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who is considered as the spiritual guide of  President Ahmadinejad. Despite this, the editor of the paper, Qasem Ravanbakhsh, has written an editorial spelling out the reasons for the disapproval of Esfandiar Rahim-Moshai. He cites the famous statement by the Vice President that Iranians are friends of the Israeli people but is more upset about Rahim-Mashai's interventions into theological argument.

Given that the editorial would probably not have appeared without Mesbah Yazdi's acceptance, it appears that the President may now be defying even his spiritual mentor.

1315 GMT: Nuclear Update. While the resignation of Gholam Reza Aghazadeh as the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation received a good deal of attention, with speculation as to why he was leaving, the naming of Ali Akbar Salehi to the post has gone unnoticed.

Salehi's appointment is a sign the Iranian leadership has not closed the door to talks over the nuclear programme. Salehi was Iran’s representative at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) between 1999 and 2004. It was a sensitive time when the UN watchdog began investigating Iran’s programme: Iran's nuclear plant at Natanz was revealed, but Salehi, on Iran’s behalf, signed the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, allowing the IAEA snap inspections. He also handled Iran’s 2003-2005 talks with the European Union, which led to Tehran's suspension of uranium enrichment as a “goodwill gesture”. Salehi holds a doctorate in nuclear physics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and is fluent in English.

1215 GMT: Social Media Success! Less than three hours after we were notified that publication had been blocked on the Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard (0750 GMT), the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the restriction was lifted. She is now posting regularly.

1025 GMT: And Furthermore. Press TV is also being much nicer to Mir Hossein Mousavi at the moment. It covers his meeting with journalists under the headline, "Mousavi shows no sign of white flag", and the opening paragraph, "Without any indication of relenting, defeated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi says he will not drop his challenge to the June 12 election results."

1020 GMT: Uh Oh, Mahmoud. The President may want to watch his back or to consider a climbdown from his current position. In another sign of pressure on Ahmadinejad from both the Supreme Leader and from other conservative leaders, Press TV's website decided within the last hour to run the story of Cabinet division, highlighted in our first update (0545 GMT): "Amid a continued political controversy in Iran over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first vice presidential pick, cabinet members engage in a verbal quarrel with the president over his insistence on the choice. The quarrel broke out at Wednesday's cabinet meeting between President Ahmadinejad and the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi."

0845 GMT: Meanwhile, Another Fight in the Assembly of Experts. Conservative members such as Ayatollahs Mohammad Yazdi, Jannati, and Mesbah Yazdi have released a statement reminding the public of their obligation to the Supreme Leader. More importantly, at least for the short-term political struggle, they restate that members are trying to replace Rafsanjani from his position as head of the Assembly.

The statement, aired by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, has been issued in the name of all 86 members of the Assembly, even though it has only been signed by only 16.

0835 GMT: A bit of mischief from Javan, the newspaper linked to the Revolutionary Guard, which claims (without sources) "that an effort is being made to confront Ahmadinejad's inauguration with an alternative Parliament...coordinated between radical reformists and anti-Rahim-Mashai [the First Vice President] conservatives"

0815  GMT: We have just posted an analysis, by the Iranian columnist Mohammad Abtahi, of the developing battle between President Ahmadinejad and "conservatives" over his choice of the First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

As we were editing this, news came in that Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami (who delivered a "hard-line" warning to the protest movement when he led Tehran prayers on 26 June) has declared the President's removal of Rahim-Mashai would show his loyalty to the Supreme Leader.

0750 GMT: Not-So-Social Media. A reader points us to the Facebook page of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard. She has written, "URGENT: (July 22) THE PUBLICATION RIGHTS FOR THIS PAGE ARE BLOCKED! FACEBOOK !! WHAT ARE YOU DOING?"

0745 GMT: A Correction. The fatwa of Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi (0615 GMT) criticised the selection of the First Vice President rather than the inauguration of President Ahmadinejad.

0720 GMT: Regime Concession? A report this morning that Ayatollah Khameini has decided to pardon or reduce the sentences of some individuals that have been recently arrested.

0655 GMT: Perhaps the "power overload" protests against the regime are having an effect. Or perhaps the Iranian infrastructure is just buckling under economic and political tensions. There is a report that utility services in Tehran are unstable, with some facing blackouts of more than six hours.

0645 GMT: Video has been posted of the hunger strike in front of the United Nations, including prominent Iranian activists, expatriates and supporters, which began yesterday. The action will culminate on Saturday as part of a global "United for Iran Day".

0615 GMT: Make that 3 ayatollahs (see 0545 GMT) who have come out against the Government in the last 24 hours. Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, who is considered "conservative" in religious approach and had been labelled "neutral" in his post-election position, has denounced the choice of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President: "Installing such an individual is not legal and should he be installed by mistake the mistake should be remedied."

0545 GMT: A quieter but still significant start to the day, as the opposition began to lay foundations for a broader-based political challenge. As Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times summarises, "Increasingly, disparate reformists appear to be acting in concert, coordinating announcements and strategy." A lot of the attention is on Mir Hossein Mousavi's declaration that a new political front would be launched by the end of the week and his comments to journalists: "Power is always inclined to become absolute, and only people's movements can put a hold on this inclination."

Still, details are sketchy on how the political front would be organised and how it would pursue its objectives. (Indeed, the Los Angeles Times headline is misleading, missing the political dimension: "Iran opposition leader plans large-scale social movement.") This is also an issue that goes beyond "disparate reformists": the relationship of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and other "non-reformist" political and clerical leaders to the front is still to be seen.

So, the tangible story this morning is of more problems for the Government. Two more Ayatollahs took public stands against President Ahmadinejad (see yesterday's updates). Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani issued a fatwa denouncing the President's inauguaration while Ayatollah Dastgheib urged fellow clerics to support protestors, ""Using firearms and crude weapons against people and incarceration of the revolutionaries will never help safeguard Islam and the establishment."

Just as serious are the divisions within conservative ranks, furthered by Ahmadinejad's defiance of the Supreme Leader over the appointment of his First Vice President. Tabnak reports that a Cabinet meeting ended in a heated argument and profanity, as a debate between the President and Minister of Culture Hossein Safar-Harandi ended with the latter leaving the room.

Undeterred, Ahmadinejad criticized the interference of prominent individuals in the process of selecting Government officials. This indirect challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei prompted Minister of Inteligence Ejeie and the Minster of Labor to leave the meeting in protest.

And, although it may be tangential to the developments over the political front and within the Government, a sign also appeared that even the Supreme Leader could be challenged if the conflict escalates. Former Interior Minister Abdullah Nouri, compared Khamenei to the late Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi: "In the 1970s, nobody imagined that limited struggles would drive the shah out of the country."

The Latest from Iran (22 July): "The Pendulum Swings" Towards Opposition

The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front

NEW Iran: Your Easy-to-Use Ayatollah Scorecard
NEW Iran: Playing the "National Security" Card
The Latest from Iran (21 July): The Lull in the Cycle of Protest
NEW Iran Video: The Protests Continue (21 July)

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1945 GMT: During a relatively slow period in Iran news, have been following an interesting discussion at Anonymous Iran, sparked by Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief": "they are well written and structured, and even better, they report from a "grass-root" level so that I'm able to get a better "feel" and emotional picture of what really is happening. However, does the method used in gathering this information hold up to established journalistic standards?"

1900 GMT: The Significance of the Event, not the Message. Mir-Hossein Moussavi said Wednesday that protests would continue until all demonstrators are released.

That is distinctive not because of the statement, which is merely a reiteration of what Mousavi said to families of detainees on Monday, but because of the audience. Mousavi was speaking to journalists, a significant relaxation of the restrictions put on his movements and access to media by the Iranian Government in recent weeks.

1525 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, responding to questions from a "concerned person", has issued a fatwa regarding the inauguration of President Ahmadinejad

If the individual [claiming to be president] has attained his position  illegitimately and fraudulently, the inauguration ceremonies and investment of power done by the supreme leader will  are not sufficient to confer legitimacy [upon the aforementioned president] because [the act of] performing these ceremonies is not the main foundation upon which [presidential legitimacy is built upon] . These ceremonies can only invest power if the president has reached his position through an honest election process.

1245 GMT: More arrests...and more evidence that lawyers are being targeted, possibly to deter them from taking up the cases of detainees (see 1030 GMT). Lawyers Mohammad Reza Azimi and Mostafa Sha'bani have been detained.

1120 GMT: Another Ayatollah for Rafsanjani. Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib has written an open letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. Calling the former President "the old and loyal friend of the Departed Imam", Ayatollah Khomeini, Dastghaib says, "Your speech expressed all anxieties of many people of this land. all of them who are devout Shi'a muslims, and you pointed out their grievances. We saw violence acted on defenceless people, especially upon unversity students and faculty. [Everyone also saw] the filling up of prisons and brutal interogations."

Praising Rafsanjani's "reasonable suggestions to alleviate" the crisis, Dastghaid also declared, "I proclaim...using any kind of weapon ("warm" or "cold") or imposing confinement on the followers of these gentlemen [Mousavi, Karroubi and Rezaei] is equivalent to heresy....[Applying these methods] will not protect the establishment, and [these methods] are unacceptable for protecting Islam and the revolution. this behavior alienates people from Islam and the establishment."

Dastgheib concluded, "It is imperative for us [the Marjaa, upper-ranking clergy] to listen to the reasonable demands of the friends of the Imam [Khomeini] and the revolution such as Mssrs. Mousavi, Karroubi, and Rezaei, whom a very large number of people have voted for..... [This] will prevent any separation coming between us and the people."

1110 GMT: More on the battle between the Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad camps over "corruption" (0600 GMT). The Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, claimed that Rafsanjani's brother donated approximately $5 million dollars (in Iranian currency) to the Presidential campaign of Mohsen Rezaei campaign. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani categorically stated, "We have not paid a penny to any campaign" and challenged the accusor to bring the allegations to court. The Rezaei camp, represented by Ali Ahmadi,  responded by  calling the charges "pure fabrication "and said, "Our budget is a thousand times smaller than Zolnour's favorite [Ahmadinejad]....If Zolnour can not either prove or withdraw his allegations we will take this case to court".

1045 GMT: Reports now emerging of plans for a rally by Mousavi and Karroubi supporters in Baharestan Square in front of the Iranian Parliament, on the day of President Ahmadinejad's inauguration (sometime between 2 and 6 August).

1030 GMT: Lots of Internet chatter about the fate of Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a human rights lawyer and founder of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi’s human rights group, who was arrested on 9 July. Dadkhah has now been charged with possession of two pistols and opium; his defenders believed he is being singled out to intimidate lawyers from representing detainees.

Dadkhah is the lawyer for Abdolfatah Soltani, another human rights lawyer, who was arrested on 16 June.

0730 GMT: Cracks in the Security Wall? As we reported yesterday, Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, is talking tough:

The security forces will stand in front of any individual of whatever rank that tries to disregard law....[These] individuals create crisis in order to grab power and are the same individuals that claim that they follow the ways of the revolution and Imam [Khomeini] but in fact disregard the principles of supreme leadership....If someone loses an election and then tries to nullify the results, he makes the whole election process useless.

Ahmadi-Moghaddam's deputy added, "The police will punish any illegal gathering."

In contrast the new head of the political-religious office of the Iranian Armed Forces, seems to have distanced the military from the conflict: "Today one of the reasons why the Iranian Armed forces are so popular is that it has refrained from entering the political fray.....Members of the armed forces should be the most well versed in political issues while they remain above the fray."

0715 GMT: Favourite entry from the "Green Brief" by Josh Shahryar on yesterday's demonstrations:

Many eyewitness accounts reported that some security forces would stop running after protesters and start cursing their superiors. Many complained of fatigue and were seen panting and telling protesters, “To just go and leave us alone.”

0620 GMT: So, Did the "Power Overload" Protest Work? After Tuesday night's attempt to black out the Iranian electrical grid by turning on appliances, an interesting announcement from the Tehran electricity authority: "Observe the correct pattern of electricity consumption especially in peak electricity consumption hours."

0615 GMT: Picking up on a story from Monday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, said that her brother has been detained for more than a month. It was widely known, soon after the elections, that members of Mousavi's family had been arrested, but Rahnavard's statement is the first direct confirmation of continued detention.

0600 GMT: More on growing Rafsanjani confidence and Ahmadinejad weakness. Rafsanjani's brother Mohammad Hashemi has said he will take court action over allegations of corruption against Rafsanjani made by the Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guard.

Meanwhile a Presidential representative has complained that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is not giving "fair" coverage to Ahmadinejad: "[IRIB was] not willing to communicate the heartfelt and emotional scenes" of the President's Thursday appearance in Mashaad.


0545 GMT: Our correspondent Mani posts on an another sign of shifting opinion:

It is interesting that the conservative-leaning Khabar Online is becoming more and more favourable to Mousavi, as it gives space and attention to his proposal for a political front, which "will be formed within a week". The news site states that "[all] reformist parties and groups and some conservative ones have shown interest in joining Mousavi's political front", although Mousavi "seems to be selective with regards to which groups he would like to include in this front".

Khabar Online received this news directly from Alireza Beheshti, one of Mousavi's chief advisors, who said, "By Thursday Mousavi will acknowledge the individuals advising him in forming this political front and will also [provide definitions] making this political front unique". The story reports that Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of the Majlis (Parliament), has said, "In our meeting with Mousavi we told him that if he works the framework of law, we will support him....We are not joining his party but we will support his political activity that is within the framework of law." The "we" in this statement refers to Bahonar, Habibollah Asgharoladi and Yahya Ale-es-hagh, members of a conservative fraction of parliament who met with Mousavi a few weeks before.

(It should be added that Bahonar's manoeuvre is not an open challenge to the election but support of what he sees as a positive compromise. In another newspaper interview, he criticised Ahmadinejad: "He should not equate criticism with sabotage....No one has given his performance an A+." However, he also said, "Mousavi has a huge misconception that he has won....Mousavi asked us to nullify the elections and we refused.")

Khabaronline then reports on, and criticises the response of state-run media: "[In addition to their denuciations of Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi] government supporters are clamouring that the legal formation of a political front also requires official permission from the interior ministry....This clamor is just a red herring that diverts attention from the main issue: the fact that during the election the contemptuous treatment of the law led to a great unease and anxiety and that the people converging on Mousavi are the same ones that warned society of the dangers of this contempt."

0515 GMT: Tuesday was an unusual day. My morning update mentioned the possibility of an afternoon protest, coming one month after the big demonstrations of 20 June and the death of Neda Agha Soltan and 57 years after a protest for the nationalist Government of Mohammad Mossadegh, but did not make much of it. Almost every day brings chatter about a march, and there was no sign of endorsement for the gathering from any of the opposition leaders.

By late afternoon, however, it was clear that there had been far-from-unimportant marches. The numbers are uncertain, though even cautious news agencies were ready to say "thousands" rather than "hundreds". The security forces again prevented a single mass gathering, notably in 7 Tir Square.

However, the persistence and size of the demonstrations was significant enough to pick up widespread attention. CNN ran a dramatic report linking protests and alleged footage of Basiji firing at the crowd. For the first time in many days, BBC English took notice; indeed, their correspondent Jon Leyne, almost silent after his expulsion from Iran weeks ago, was declaring that "the pendulum had swung" again and that there must be major change in the Iranian system.

The BBC report is over-dramatic, at least at this point, but Tuesday was more than a sign that the story continues, especially with confirmation that sizable demonstrations have taken place outside Tehran. The public demonstrations needs to be set alongside, and indeed intertwined with the pressure within the system against not only President Ahmadinejad but also the Supreme Leader. The short but sharp response of Hashemi Rafsanjani,indirectly but clearly addressing Ayatollah Khomeini's attempt on Monday to intimidate the opposition leaders, should not be underestimated. The former President was not only endorsing protest but encouraging it.

In that context, it remains to be seen whether the Supreme Leader's continuing strategy to confront rather than compromise --- his Monday address should be set alongside his 19 June prayer speech, which will eventually either be seen as a defiant assertion of his power or one of the greatest blunders he has ever made --- will work. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is looking not only foolish but foolhardy. He seems to have received no boost from his Thursday speech in Mashaad (see separate entry on the video dispute), which was overtaken by Rafsanjani's weekend trip to the city, and his manoeuvres in the choice and defence of his first Vice President have been clumsy. Perhaps more than clumsy --- having unsettled many of his own supporters, Ahmadinejad looks foolhardy in his resistance to Khamenei's call to let Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai go.

Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds

Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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A reader gives us an invaluable update, via Parleman News, on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's address, commemorating the festival of Aid-e-Mabaas and the divine revelation to the Prophet Mohammad. The summary prompts two questions, in light of Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday address, the persistent Green Movement, and the latest challenges to the Supreme Leader outlined in our post this morning: 1) can Khamenei really rely on the "foreign menace" to maintain the support of most of the Iranian population, especially if that means a political showdown with a Rafsanjani or a Mousavi?; 2) how far can the call to "morality" take precedence over the specific concerns over the Iranian system during and after the system?

My sense (as an outsider) is that the first ploy is more and more ineffective with many Iranians. The second is more important, asking Iran's population to make a commitment to religious observation over their views on the country's political system.

Ayatollah Khamenei, stating that "rationality was the first issue that the prophet implemented in society", invoked morality to support the legitimacy of the Iranian system: "The propagation of moral values in society is like a clear breeze that .....prevents people from being covetousness, ignorant, personally vindictive, suspicious towards one another."

As has been the case since his prayer address on 19 June, the initial target for the Supreme Leader was foreign influences and his main assurance was that Iranians would reject these influences to support their clerical and political leadership:

Arrogant powers consider the Islamic republic of Iran to be an impediment to their global ill-omened plans especially in the Middle East....The people of Iran have demonstrated that in the last 30 years it is a loyal and self sacrificing populace and these characteristics did manifest themselves in the post election events....Amongst Iranians different groups have different viewpoints regarding social issues and all express their opinions, however ....Whenever the people feel that a element is organizing an attack to the establishment, they will distance themselves [from that element] even if that element is chanting popular slogans....Even during a great calm and stable movement one should not ignore the possibility of intrigues of enemies...although it is obvious that all these events have been orchestrated by the enemies and their media, they still have the gall to claim that they are not interfering [in Iranian internal politics]....Foreign media want to support these rioting anarchists by portraying them as 'the people', but the [Iranian] people will ostracize these rioters.

Then, however, Khamenei went beyond the foreign menace to square up to the challenge of internal opposition:

Anyone with any position and credentials that they have, if they intend to direct society to insecurity is a hated individual....The elite must recognize that if any of their words, interpretations or actions compromise the security of society, they will be stepping against the pathway of the Iranian people...They must be careful of what they say...and they must know that they are facing a great test, failing this test is not merely a failing grade it will cause their fall.

Khamenei turn returned to his opening call to rationality as morality and adherence to religion: "People should not delude themselves into thinking that playing politics is rationality. Rationality is not playing politics but worshiping God."

Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?

Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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As regular readers of EA know, we're keeping a watch out for signs that would take protest beyond demonstrations beyond the handling of the results to a challenge of the Supreme Leader.

More food for thought on Sunday. The website Mowjcamp, associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, has claimed that "a few high-ranking prominent clergymen of Qom are applying pressure upon Khamenei in order to induce him to accept the protests of the public and clergy and abandon his support of Ahmadinejad". This site also claims that Ayatollah Javadi Amoli and Ayatollah Amini intend to have a meeting with Khamenei in the near future.

The Ayatollahs, members of a council of clergy convened by Hashemi Rafsanjani to solve the election crisis, will be acting officially to convey the opinions of the council to Khamenei. Mowjcamp also asserts, that other high-ranking clergymen have met with the Supreme Leader and have criticized him severely. For example  Ayatollah Kharazi has proclaimed, "The Supreme Leader must pay the blood price of the dead."

Citing an "authentic source", the website also refers to the story, which we noted yesterday, of an acrimonious debate between Rafsanjani and Khamenei in which Rafsanjani refused the Supreme Leader's request that he participate in Ahmadinejad's inauguration.

The Latest from Iran (19 July): Breathing Space

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2045 GMT: Two new videos have emerged which purport to show protests in Shiraz today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgZjgvo09R8[/youtube]

The second video is here.

2035 GMT: The Guardian reports that 36 Iranian army officers were arrested after planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's sermon in uniform in uniform, "as an act of political defiance." (via IranWire)

2030 GMT: Abbasali Kadkhodai, in an interview with FarsNews, responded to the criticisms of Rafsanjani and commented upon the Zanganeh and Akhondi letter.

Kadkhodai claimed that "the Guardian Council applied all possible legal means to ensure maximum trust in the election process". He also said that when we were investigating the election Larijani suggested  ".... that a committee compromised of  heads of the national auditory office, national prosecution office and a member of the Guardian Council be formed to investigate the complaints of the opposition candidates". Kadkhodai continued by claiming "... although this suggestion [of Larijani's] was problematic we accepted it ... but Mousavi and Karroubi rejected the proposal".

Kadkhodai claimed that contrary to the statement of Rafsanjani, "that in the given five days the Guardian Council used all opportinities to ensure trust [in the election process]." Commenting upon the fact that the Guardian council has been at the receiving end of critical statements, Kadkhodai said "unfortunately some prominent men made no effort to solve these problems. If they had done so, maybe the worries of Mr. Rafsanjani would have been addressed. Kadkhodai closed his interview by stating that "the Guardian Council has not shirked in performing its legal duties in the presidential election process and has left a good performance record".

2015 GMT: Another twist in the tale of Ahmadinejad's VP- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has just updated his personal website with a statement that says: "rumours of my resignation have been propagated by ill-intentioned people who intend to force my resignation and thereby cause the collapse of the government.  These rumours are absolute falsehoods." The confusion over his current status within the Ahmadinejad government could indicate infighting amongst Iranian conservatives.

2000 GMT: A few hours ago (see 1700 GMT) we linked to a post by Juan Cole, which suggested that Iranian hard liners weren't happy. A reader informs us that Cole has confused Ayatollah Misbah Yazdi, an ultra-hardline cleric. with Ayatollah Yazdi, also a hardline cleric.

1930 GMT: Iranian press are reporting that former President Khatami has called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government.

1700 GMT: Abbas Palizdar, who exposed the corruption of many officials including Ayatollah Yazdi, has been freed. (via IranRiggedElect)

Juan Cole thinks that the hard liners aren't happy.

1630 GMT: The Government buckles. Esfandiar Rahim Mashai- whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son- has declined appointment as 1st Vice President after pressure from Members of Parliament.

Rumour of the Day: In a meeting last Tuesday, the Supreme Leader asked Hashemi Rafsanjani to attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration. Rafsanjani angrily refused.

1500 GMT: A significant development? Conservative site Jahan News is reporting that Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has resigned his post as Ahmadinejad's VP pick.



1445 GMT: Parlemanews also reports that 20 pro-reformist members of Parliament are officially placing a question to the Minister of the Interior Mahsooli and Minister of Information Ejehi: "these members have asked the ministers to state under what charges these individuals- many of whom have been officials of previous governments and/or previous members of parliament- have been detained."

Another 24 reformist MPs also asked the Interior Minister: "why has a political problem been treated as a security issue?" and  have also asked for clarification about the "attack to on Tehran University Dormitories".

Mehdi Karroubi, meanwhile, has continued to visit the families of detainees, and also went to the the church of St. Sarkis in Tehran to pay his respects to the Armenian-Iranian casualties of the recent plane crash. While there he offered his condolences to the family of Dr. Leon Davidian (an Armenian member of parliament of the 6th Majlis) who was amongst the casualties. Karroubi is the highest ranking politician to have paid personal respects to the Armenian casualties- the Iranian government has come under some criticism for not demonstrating enough sympathy to the Armenian-Iranian victims.

UPDATE 1430 GMT: Parlemannews has revealed new details of Rafsanjani's pilgrimage: Rafsanjani is visiting Mashad to consult with Ayatollahs Makarem-Shirazi and Safi-Golpayegani who are also on a pilgrimage to Mashad. Parlemannews states that both Ayatollahs are strongly against Ahamdinehad's Vice Presidential pick, and also reminds its readers that Ayatollah Ezeddin Zanjani, the highest ranking cleric in Mashad is in the pro-reform fraction.



0750 GMT: The New Political Front? Rassool Montajebnia, Mehdi Karroubi's deputy in the Etemade Melli reformist party, has said that it would be very useful if former President Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi established strong political parties with well-defined objectives to rally and organize their supporters. The resulting party or parties could then join forces with other parties such as Etamade Melli to advance the reformist agenda.

So, for the Karroubi camp, progress through established parties is the way forward. Montajebnia stated that the current political front of Mousavi is  currently in a rather vague state and does not have a well-defined pattern.

0745 GMT: It looks like that Russia may be growing uncomfortable with its backing of President Ahmadinejad. The "conservative" news site Khabar Online writes, "A specialist from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies has acknowledged significant irregularities in the election results, concluding that Ahmadinejad may have won but not with such a great margin".

0730 GMT: A Trip to Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani is in Mashaad on a pilgrimage to Imam Reza. The visit comes only 72 hours after President Ahmadinejad went to the city.

Meanwhile, the Government faces more pressure with criticism of the choice of Vice Presidents (see yesterday's updates), now being seen in some "conservative" press. The reformist Member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari is actively investigating methods to impeach Ahmadinejad and may use the VP issue as a rallying cry.

0700 GMT: Unsurprisingly a relatively quiet Saturday after all the tension of the day before. Both the Government and opposition appeared to be taking time to reposition.

However, another clear sign of the dynamic between Hashemi Rafsanjani's now-public position and the opposition challenge came in an open letter, published in both "conservative" and "reformist" outlets, from two advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason  with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- addressed to Ali Larijani.

The letter was originally sent to Larijani on 20 June, the day after the Supreme Leader spoke at Friday prayers. However, "regretfully these suggestions were not attended to by people in charge", so Zanganeh and Akhoondi "hope that public knowledge of this letter may be of some use". Parleman News adds the political significance: the publication of this letter is "in direct response to the critics of Mr Rafsanjani's recent speech, especially to those that take issue with Rafsanjani's statement that the Guardian Council did not effectively use the five extra days given to them [to resolve the election's irregularities]".

The letter is a useful platform, echoing Rafsanjani's address, for political progress rather than a manifesto of changes. 1) Trust must be reestablished between the two opposing sides; .2) The right to protest the election results must be officially accepted, respecting rights guaranteed by the Iranian constitution. These rights include the right to congregate to protest peacefully, the right to have a public voice, and the right to be fairly represented in other national media. Specifically, Mir Hossein Mousavi must be given the opportunity to state his position in national television.

Significantly, Zanganeh and Akhoondi follow this, in the re-publication of the 30 June letter, with an indication that the Mousavi camp has not given up the challenge to the 12 June election. Given the Guardian Council blatant support of President Ahmadinejad during and after the election, a body "comprised of prominent Iranians that are universally considered to be trustworthy" should be formed for arbitration.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi intervened in an interview with Deutsche Welle, saying that Hashemi Rafsanjani told the truth about the regime but not all the truth.

Reports contnue of arrests on Friday, including youth group members of Mir Hossein Mousavi's party.