Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?

Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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As regular readers of EA know, we're keeping a watch out for signs that would take protest beyond demonstrations beyond the handling of the results to a challenge of the Supreme Leader.

More food for thought on Sunday. The website Mowjcamp, associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, has claimed that "a few high-ranking prominent clergymen of Qom are applying pressure upon Khamenei in order to induce him to accept the protests of the public and clergy and abandon his support of Ahmadinejad". This site also claims that Ayatollah Javadi Amoli and Ayatollah Amini intend to have a meeting with Khamenei in the near future.

The Ayatollahs, members of a council of clergy convened by Hashemi Rafsanjani to solve the election crisis, will be acting officially to convey the opinions of the council to Khamenei. Mowjcamp also asserts, that other high-ranking clergymen have met with the Supreme Leader and have criticized him severely. For example  Ayatollah Kharazi has proclaimed, "The Supreme Leader must pay the blood price of the dead."

Citing an "authentic source", the website also refers to the story, which we noted yesterday, of an acrimonious debate between Rafsanjani and Khamenei in which Rafsanjani refused the Supreme Leader's request that he participate in Ahmadinejad's inauguration.

The Latest from Iran (19 July): Breathing Space

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2045 GMT: Two new videos have emerged which purport to show protests in Shiraz today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgZjgvo09R8[/youtube]

The second video is here.

2035 GMT: The Guardian reports that 36 Iranian army officers were arrested after planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's sermon in uniform in uniform, "as an act of political defiance." (via IranWire)

2030 GMT: Abbasali Kadkhodai, in an interview with FarsNews, responded to the criticisms of Rafsanjani and commented upon the Zanganeh and Akhondi letter.

Kadkhodai claimed that "the Guardian Council applied all possible legal means to ensure maximum trust in the election process". He also said that when we were investigating the election Larijani suggested  ".... that a committee compromised of  heads of the national auditory office, national prosecution office and a member of the Guardian Council be formed to investigate the complaints of the opposition candidates". Kadkhodai continued by claiming "... although this suggestion [of Larijani's] was problematic we accepted it ... but Mousavi and Karroubi rejected the proposal".

Kadkhodai claimed that contrary to the statement of Rafsanjani, "that in the given five days the Guardian Council used all opportinities to ensure trust [in the election process]." Commenting upon the fact that the Guardian council has been at the receiving end of critical statements, Kadkhodai said "unfortunately some prominent men made no effort to solve these problems. If they had done so, maybe the worries of Mr. Rafsanjani would have been addressed. Kadkhodai closed his interview by stating that "the Guardian Council has not shirked in performing its legal duties in the presidential election process and has left a good performance record".

2015 GMT: Another twist in the tale of Ahmadinejad's VP- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has just updated his personal website with a statement that says: "rumours of my resignation have been propagated by ill-intentioned people who intend to force my resignation and thereby cause the collapse of the government.  These rumours are absolute falsehoods." The confusion over his current status within the Ahmadinejad government could indicate infighting amongst Iranian conservatives.

2000 GMT: A few hours ago (see 1700 GMT) we linked to a post by Juan Cole, which suggested that Iranian hard liners weren't happy. A reader informs us that Cole has confused Ayatollah Misbah Yazdi, an ultra-hardline cleric. with Ayatollah Yazdi, also a hardline cleric.

1930 GMT: Iranian press are reporting that former President Khatami has called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government.

1700 GMT: Abbas Palizdar, who exposed the corruption of many officials including Ayatollah Yazdi, has been freed. (via IranRiggedElect)

Juan Cole thinks that the hard liners aren't happy.

1630 GMT: The Government buckles. Esfandiar Rahim Mashai- whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son- has declined appointment as 1st Vice President after pressure from Members of Parliament.

Rumour of the Day: In a meeting last Tuesday, the Supreme Leader asked Hashemi Rafsanjani to attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration. Rafsanjani angrily refused.

1500 GMT: A significant development? Conservative site Jahan News is reporting that Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has resigned his post as Ahmadinejad's VP pick.



1445 GMT: Parlemanews also reports that 20 pro-reformist members of Parliament are officially placing a question to the Minister of the Interior Mahsooli and Minister of Information Ejehi: "these members have asked the ministers to state under what charges these individuals- many of whom have been officials of previous governments and/or previous members of parliament- have been detained."

Another 24 reformist MPs also asked the Interior Minister: "why has a political problem been treated as a security issue?" and  have also asked for clarification about the "attack to on Tehran University Dormitories".

Mehdi Karroubi, meanwhile, has continued to visit the families of detainees, and also went to the the church of St. Sarkis in Tehran to pay his respects to the Armenian-Iranian casualties of the recent plane crash. While there he offered his condolences to the family of Dr. Leon Davidian (an Armenian member of parliament of the 6th Majlis) who was amongst the casualties. Karroubi is the highest ranking politician to have paid personal respects to the Armenian casualties- the Iranian government has come under some criticism for not demonstrating enough sympathy to the Armenian-Iranian victims.

UPDATE 1430 GMT: Parlemannews has revealed new details of Rafsanjani's pilgrimage: Rafsanjani is visiting Mashad to consult with Ayatollahs Makarem-Shirazi and Safi-Golpayegani who are also on a pilgrimage to Mashad. Parlemannews states that both Ayatollahs are strongly against Ahamdinehad's Vice Presidential pick, and also reminds its readers that Ayatollah Ezeddin Zanjani, the highest ranking cleric in Mashad is in the pro-reform fraction.



0750 GMT: The New Political Front? Rassool Montajebnia, Mehdi Karroubi's deputy in the Etemade Melli reformist party, has said that it would be very useful if former President Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi established strong political parties with well-defined objectives to rally and organize their supporters. The resulting party or parties could then join forces with other parties such as Etamade Melli to advance the reformist agenda.

So, for the Karroubi camp, progress through established parties is the way forward. Montajebnia stated that the current political front of Mousavi is  currently in a rather vague state and does not have a well-defined pattern.

0745 GMT: It looks like that Russia may be growing uncomfortable with its backing of President Ahmadinejad. The "conservative" news site Khabar Online writes, "A specialist from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies has acknowledged significant irregularities in the election results, concluding that Ahmadinejad may have won but not with such a great margin".

0730 GMT: A Trip to Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani is in Mashaad on a pilgrimage to Imam Reza. The visit comes only 72 hours after President Ahmadinejad went to the city.

Meanwhile, the Government faces more pressure with criticism of the choice of Vice Presidents (see yesterday's updates), now being seen in some "conservative" press. The reformist Member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari is actively investigating methods to impeach Ahmadinejad and may use the VP issue as a rallying cry.

0700 GMT: Unsurprisingly a relatively quiet Saturday after all the tension of the day before. Both the Government and opposition appeared to be taking time to reposition.

However, another clear sign of the dynamic between Hashemi Rafsanjani's now-public position and the opposition challenge came in an open letter, published in both "conservative" and "reformist" outlets, from two advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason  with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- addressed to Ali Larijani.

The letter was originally sent to Larijani on 20 June, the day after the Supreme Leader spoke at Friday prayers. However, "regretfully these suggestions were not attended to by people in charge", so Zanganeh and Akhoondi "hope that public knowledge of this letter may be of some use". Parleman News adds the political significance: the publication of this letter is "in direct response to the critics of Mr Rafsanjani's recent speech, especially to those that take issue with Rafsanjani's statement that the Guardian Council did not effectively use the five extra days given to them [to resolve the election's irregularities]".

The letter is a useful platform, echoing Rafsanjani's address, for political progress rather than a manifesto of changes. 1) Trust must be reestablished between the two opposing sides; .2) The right to protest the election results must be officially accepted, respecting rights guaranteed by the Iranian constitution. These rights include the right to congregate to protest peacefully, the right to have a public voice, and the right to be fairly represented in other national media. Specifically, Mir Hossein Mousavi must be given the opportunity to state his position in national television.

Significantly, Zanganeh and Akhoondi follow this, in the re-publication of the 30 June letter, with an indication that the Mousavi camp has not given up the challenge to the 12 June election. Given the Guardian Council blatant support of President Ahmadinejad during and after the election, a body "comprised of prominent Iranians that are universally considered to be trustworthy" should be formed for arbitration.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi intervened in an interview with Deutsche Welle, saying that Hashemi Rafsanjani told the truth about the regime but not all the truth.

Reports contnue of arrests on Friday, including youth group members of Mir Hossein Mousavi's party.

Iran: A Paintball Embargo?

Maryam from Keeping the Change notes a possible US link to the Iran's Government suppression of protests:

"Green" may be the color we now associate with the movement for reform in Iran, but it appears that the power of color is also not lost on government forces working to resist these calls for change. According to an eyewitness report sent to us by one of our readers, the Iranian police are using "paint balls" against demonstrating crowds. This eyewitness, who was in attendance at Rafsanjani's Friday sermon yesterday at Tehran University, claims that during demonstrations outside the University following Rafsanjani's speech, police forces launched paint balls at protestors. The account is confirmed by a piece published in Al-Arabiya newspaper yesterday, reporting that the Iranian police used paint balls and tear gas to disperse demonstrators, particularly around the Interior Ministry building.

Our eyewitness' report, however, suggests that the paint balls may not be used simply to disperse the crowds, but rather that a more nefarious strategy may also lie behind the paint ball - tactic. According to this person, the paint balls are used to single out protestors, who the police believe should be arrested.

Full story.

The Latest from Iran (18 July): A Victory Followed By.....?

UPDATE 1530 GMT: From our source:

The conservatives strike back. Ayatollah Yazdi, in a news conference has blasted Rafsanjani for his recent speech. In response to Rafsanjani's call to release prisoners Yazdi countered by saying  "Who do you think you are to demand the release of the detanees?" and "these detainees are mercenaries who have been caught inciting people to revolt and must not be released". Yazdi accused Rafsanjani of "sowing the seeds of doubt amongst people".  Yazdi then asserted that in "Islamic government the legitimacy comes from God and popularity from the people" (implying that even an unpopular Islamic government is legitimate). Yazdi continued by stating that "Rafsanjani has emphasized that an important foundation of government is the people, Rafsanjani has been and is absolutely wrong in this". Yazdi described the protesters as "misguided youth under the influence of satellite TV" and concluded his talk by stating that "if he is in the Guardian Council he will not approve" Mousavi again, due to the fact that Mousavi has demonstrated contempt for any form of Law".

Ayatollah Jannati has also stated that, "The enemies must be aware that the Islamic establishment and people  will not surrender to anarchy and mayhem."

UPDATE 1215 GMT: Some more overnight news:

Parleman News reports [English translation] that IRIB has been blasted for its portrayal of yesterday's protesters- not only for playing down their protests, but for referring to supporters of Mousavi and Karroubi as "lawbreakers and outlaws". The opposition movement has long accused IRIB of taking a pro-government, anti-protest position.

From an EA source: "The choice of Esfandiar Rahim Mashai as Vice President is again causing a headache for Ahmadinejad. The choice of Rahim Mashai by Ahmadinejad has been interpreted by the reformist press and some hardliners (including Larijani) as another instance of Ahmadinejad's high handedness, stubbornness, and contempt for public opinion. Rahim Mashai, who made the headlines some time ago after being caught on video in a belly-dancing cabaret in Turkey, has caused other controversy by making statements such as "there is no boundary between Islam and infidels".

The conservative site Kabaronline, meanwhile, considers the choice of Rahim Mashai as VP to be an attempt at diverting attention from more "fundamental problems." [English translation]

UPDATE 1200 GMT: Posts are likely to be slower today as Enduring America's writers take some time offline for various personal commitments. Some overnight updates from our contacts:

Human rights activist Shadi Sadr has been arrested.

Intelligence minister Mohsen Ejehi, in a conference with various sections of the Revolutionary Guard and Basiji has voiced his support for Ahmadinejad's government:



"He implied that it is due to Ahmadinejad's policies that " in the last  year that Western and American politicians have referred to Iran as a great power" and referred to Iran as "the Islamic Republic of Iran". He then said that the American politicians are "ready to engage with Iran as equal and respectful partners". He also "claimed that the Americans have conceded the nuclear energy issue to Iran and are willing to have unconditional dialogue with Iran and are willing to work with Iran to solve regional and global problems, " and that Israel with the help of the People's Mojahedin Party plan to assassinate Ahmadinejad.
Ejehi went on to say that the opposition movement contains "dastardly elements"- ie the US, Israel and other Western countries, the Royalists, the Freedom Front and the Iranian opposition parties.  Ejehi claimed that all of these groups want Ahmadinejad gone and this removal was a high priority for Rafsanjani.  After blasting all three opposition candidates Ejehi also made the surprising claim that "after the televised debate between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad it became absolutely clear that Ahmadinejad is the winner." Ejehi accused the Mousavi camp of rigging the pre-election polls. He subsequently claimed that 3 days before the election the "Mousavi camp knew they had lost so they decided to question the whole process by bringing forth accusations of fraud". As a parting shot, he said that the opposition leaders "taxed the patience of the Supreme Leader by their rude and insulting behavior during their meeting with him" and expressed surprise that although "the Supreme Leader with saintlike humility had listened to their concerns and offered his advice" they still persisted in their "unlawful behavior."

***

The nervousness over Hashemi Rafsanjani's address at Friday prayers in Tehran was soon replaced by excitement, even euphoria. Immediate interpretations proclaimed the former President's call for all detainees to be released, on his criticism of the Guardian Council's supervision of elections, and on his upholding of the right --- even the duty --- to protest.

That euphoria has continued this morning. Activists are urging readers to sign an on-line letter of thanks to Rafsanjani. Others have gone beyond the speech to talk of "police officers [being with] us.. They were even secretly showing us the V for Victory sign!" Demonstrators have been re-invigorated. Already The Mothers of Mourning have asked people to join them for their Saturday gatherings at parks.

Meanwhile, the regime's discomfort is apparent in its news line this morning. Rather than rebutting Rafsanjani, state media are bringing out the spectre of Israel. Press TV is headlining on a secret US-Israel meeting to focus on Israel, while other outlets are indulging in the claim of an Israeli plan to assassinate President Rafsanjani Ahmadinejad.

So a victory to the Green Movement. But it is a victory that poses the question: "What Next?", not necessarily in plans for protest but in substantive political and legal demands.



Early in the crisis the answer was easy: reverse the declaration of victory for Ahmadinejad. That option has receded, however, by the passage of time. (Although, if I were the President, I would not be as enthusiastic today about the inauguration scheduled for between 2 and 6 August.)

Nor is this a platform for revolution. Despite some rather asinine hyperbole in the "West" (see Martin Amis, who apparently is a Very Important Writer, in The Guardian on Friday), the Green Movement has not sought the toppling of the system. The scope for action has been, and will continue to be, reform.

So, for example, a straightforward call of Release the Detainees poses the broader challenge. What changes should be sought in not only the security apparatus but also the judicial system to ensure that the regime cannot resort to mass detentions in future?

In the political sphere, the call will not be to remove the Supreme Leader (the specific demands on that position have been the assurance that the successor to Ali Khamenei cannot be a hand-picked hardliner, such as his son Mojtaba). But what limits, if any, should be placed on his authority, given the Iranian system's principle of the ultimate clerical jurist? Practically speaking, will there be an insistence that the Leader never again intervene in electoral politics, as happened on June 12?

And what of the complex machinery beyond the Supreme Leader? In the maze of institutions (at least for an outsider like me), how does one re-distribute or even abrogate the powers of Guardian Council, Expediency Council, Assembly of Experts, Parliament, etc.? And is there any possibility of putting formal oversight in place for the Revolutionary Guard, rather than the informal arrangement that leads to a lack of accountability if not a de facto sharing of political power and economic interests between the Guard and the President?

For me, the possible answer lies not in immediate proposals but new formations to "channel" demands. Almost overtaken, by the Friday prayers and the powerful figure of Rafsanjani, was the news of a possible "political front" involving Mir Hossein Mousavi. That development, if allowed by the regime, would put the Movement back into the "ordinary" day-to-day of politics. But given the expectations of the Movement, and the realities that political manoeuvre vs. a hostile President and legislative action (not to mention the Supreme Leader's endorsement) take time, is that enough?

None of this is to diminish either the specifics of yesterday's events or the general phenomenon of the Green Movement. It's just a reminder, in an Iran of "gradual revolution", of marathon not sprint.

The Latest from Iran (17 July): Compromise or Challenge?

2200 GMT: More new video from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]

1915 GMT: Infighting amongst the hardliners? From a contact: Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidential pick Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has been criticized by the hardliner MP Mohammad Taghi Rahbar. Rahbar, who has personal ties with Khamenei, has stated that "many ayatollahs" and "AN supportors" are "extremely concerned with this choice".

1700 GMT: onlymehdi features a picture which appears to show Karroubi after he was 'roughed up' by plainclothes officers:

1615 GMT: Saham News, the official news site of Mehdi Karroubi, confirms confrontations between riot police and protesters around Tehran University today. It reports that the crowd jeered and booed an IRIB crew who tried to shoot footage, and that at around 4pm local police used tear gas to disperse the crowds.

1610 GMT: From an EA source: "In an attempt to placate the student population, Hojattoleslam Abu-Rorabi the deputy head of parliament during the closing ceremonies of the fourteenth university student olympiad in Mathematics and Chemistry alluded to the events that had occurred in Tehran University Dormitories and vowed "to resolve these problems soon". Abu-Torabi stated that Parliament with the help of university officials " is in the process of finding solutions for this huge problem" and "is trying to effect the release of some of those students  that are in trouble" and "those who have confessed to their crimes will still be treated with Islamic kindness"." [Link: Persian / English]



1605 GMT: Reports say that Mehdi Karroubi was attacked by plainclothes secret service members today. [English translation] This is also reported in the Guardian's blog.

1600 GMT: A reader sends us this article on Parleman News, containing a series of photos from inside today's prayers.

1425 GMT: The Twitter account of journalism site Demotix says a strike is planned for Tuesday.

1400 GMT: The Lede carries an account from an Iranian-American reader who witnessed bleeding protesters and the use of tear gas outside prayers today. It also links to a YouTube account with a number of videos of what it says are protesters today.

1340 GMT: onlymehdi carries this picture of an extremely low-key appearance by Mir-Hossein Mousavi at Friday prayers, originally published here:

1330 GMT: Update on the video below. There are two chants: "We are not the people of Kufeh, that abandoned Hossein!" Kufeh is an historical Shia city in Iraq, whose population betrayed the third imam of the Shia Hossein (while also being a play on Mousavi's first name, Mir-Hossein). The second chant is, as reported, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!". [Thanks Mazdak and M.R.]

1155 GMT: Video of Mousavi supporters outside Tehran University. We believe they are chanting, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!" Can anyone translate?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]

Another lower quality video can be viewed here.

1130 GMT: Press TV's unsurprising headline on Friday prayers: "Iran's Rafsanjani urges national unity".

1105 GMT: Some confusion over Mousavi's attendance at Rafsanjani's address. An EA source does not think he was there, however both AP and Reuters report that he was. It is possible that Mousavi was in attendance, but not in the front row- this would be significant in itself.

1030 GMT: A video which is said to show Mousavi supporters at today's sermon has been posted to Facebook. (You may need to be logged in to Facebook to see it- we'll keep an eye out for alternatives.)

1025 GMT: An interesting reading: "Rafsanjani said he 'consulted' some members of the Assembly of Experts. May be an indirect warning to Khamenei."

And another Rafsanjani middle-ground statement, albeit one that will be read (I think) as a slap at the regime: "All of us, people and the government, should act within the law."

1020 GMT: A contact reports that  IRIB may have brought down the volume of Rafsanjani's speech to cloak pro-Mousavi chants coming from the crowd. Mousavi was not present in the VIP area before or during Rafsanjani's speech, and neither Mousavi or Khatami appear to have been in the front rows. VIPs present included: Emami Kashani, Mahmoud Doai, Hassan Rowhani Mehdi Karroubi, Mohsen Rezai, Majid Ansari, Mohammad Reza Aref, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Said Mortazavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar.



1015 GMT: We have located an English translation of Rafsanjani's address, via the excellent NiteOwl.

1005 GMT: More evidence of Rafsanjani's sympathetic stand with protests while not breaking with regime: "Those suffered or mourning should be sympathized with."



1000 GMT: BBC Persian is reporting that police are dispersing protesters in areas surrounding the prayer site.

0955 GMT: A clear point of substance from Rafsanjani (and one fulfilling our morning projection): release the detainees.

0945 GMT: "Basij chanting in support of Khamenei, yet Rafsanjani keeps thanking them as though they are chanting for him"

Initial reading is that Rafsanjani is making a very careful but clear push for "legitimacy", implicitly criticising Government but trying to contain the scope of the challenge: "If there's no Islam we'll be lost. If there's no republic there is no action and no Islam.

0935 GMT: The speech so far: Rafsanjani has made a pointed reference to the pious life of the 7th Imam, Jafar Sadigh, explaining how he defied censorship to promote Islam. Anyone who wishes to make an analogy to present times may do so.

More directly, Rafsanjani (unlilke the Iranian Government and the Supreme Leader) has criticised China for its suppression of Uighur Muslims. For the first time in Iran, cries of "Death to China" are being heard, though Rafsanjani is urging the crowd to be moderate in its criticisms.

0930 GMT: Even at a distance (in this case, a field in eastern Britain), the excitement over Rafsanjani's address can be felt. Basiji are reported to be shouting, but it is also claimed that --- in a prayer service --- people are whistling and chanting for Rafsanjani and the "Green Wave".

Despite the interest, however, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is apparently not carrying the service live. If true, this might be a first for state media.



0920 GMT: Fars reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has unveiled his new cabinet. [link to English translation]

0915 GMT: Some overnight news from an EA contact. According to the pro-Mousavi website Mowj-e-sabz, there were protests in other parts of Mashad while Ahmadinejad was giving his speech. Eyewitnesses spoke of a sizeable security presence, including riot poice and Ansar Hezbollah members, who suppressed booing from protesters and arrested ten.

Mowj-e-sabz also reports that Ahmadinejad was snubbed by Ayatollah Vaez Tabasi, who did not officially welcome him or accompanying him during his visit to the shrine of Imam Reza. This is believed to be the first time in 30 years that the Ayatollah has withheld such courtesies from a sitting president.

0645 GMT: A side story of interest and possible significance. Yesterday it was announced that the head of Iran's nuclear programme had resigned three weeks ago. Later in the day Wikileaks reported that it had received a document outlining an accident at the Iranian nuclear plant being developed at Natanz.

Late last night access to Wikileaks was blocked in Iran.

0530 GMT: So It Begins. As Iran waits for Friday prayers, to be led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, reports are coming in that crowds have been gathering at Enqelab and Vali-e Asr Streets near Tehran University. Heavy security, including basiji militia, is also reported.

This is an important occasion where expectation is not matched by knowledge. As we have been analysing all week, Rafsanjani is a master politician, at least behind the scenes. Before he speaks today, he will have calculated the position and strength of every major player (including himself) and the effect that each of his courses of speech and action might have.

My tendency, given Rafsanjani's priority not only for survival but to extend his power within the system, is that he will use religious rhetoric to call for reconciliation. That can be read by Government supporters as an acceptance of the Supreme Leader's authority and President Ahmadinejad's election, but it can also be read as a re-assertion that the concerns of protesters are legitimate and must be met, not only by a reversal of detentions but also changes in electoral law and a separation of Presidential politics (the Cabinet) and oversight (the Guardian Council).

Rafsanjani will hope that the Supreme Leader will move back from direct involvement in politics (and signs are that this is occurring) and the Revolutionary Guard's influence will be checked. This will give him more space for his own assertions of power within the system.

I could be far wrong, however. Rafsanjani has the capacity to surprise, as he did with his backing of Ayatollah Khamenei to become Supreme Leader in 1989, and if he thinks the moment is right for either 1) an assertion of faith in the status quo or 2) endorsement of the opposition, he will do so.

At this moment, I would be looking for Rafsanjani's possible endorsement, given subtly but clearly, of the political front envisaged by Mir Hossein Mousavi. That would not overturn the election but would open the prospect of a broad base for a "reform" within acceptable (for Rafsanjani) limits.