The Latest from Iran (17 July): Compromise or Challenge?

2200 GMT: More new video from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]

1915 GMT: Infighting amongst the hardliners? From a contact: Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidential pick Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has been criticized by the hardliner MP Mohammad Taghi Rahbar. Rahbar, who has personal ties with Khamenei, has stated that "many ayatollahs" and "AN supportors" are "extremely concerned with this choice".

1700 GMT: onlymehdi features a picture which appears to show Karroubi after he was 'roughed up' by plainclothes officers:

1615 GMT: Saham News, the official news site of Mehdi Karroubi, confirms confrontations between riot police and protesters around Tehran University today. It reports that the crowd jeered and booed an IRIB crew who tried to shoot footage, and that at around 4pm local police used tear gas to disperse the crowds.

1610 GMT: From an EA source: "In an attempt to placate the student population, Hojattoleslam Abu-Rorabi the deputy head of parliament during the closing ceremonies of the fourteenth university student olympiad in Mathematics and Chemistry alluded to the events that had occurred in Tehran University Dormitories and vowed "to resolve these problems soon". Abu-Torabi stated that Parliament with the help of university officials " is in the process of finding solutions for this huge problem" and "is trying to effect the release of some of those students  that are in trouble" and "those who have confessed to their crimes will still be treated with Islamic kindness"." [Link: Persian / English]



1605 GMT: Reports say that Mehdi Karroubi was attacked by plainclothes secret service members today. [English translation] This is also reported in the Guardian's blog.

1600 GMT: A reader sends us this article on Parleman News, containing a series of photos from inside today's prayers.

1425 GMT: The Twitter account of journalism site Demotix says a strike is planned for Tuesday.

1400 GMT: The Lede carries an account from an Iranian-American reader who witnessed bleeding protesters and the use of tear gas outside prayers today. It also links to a YouTube account with a number of videos of what it says are protesters today.

1340 GMT: onlymehdi carries this picture of an extremely low-key appearance by Mir-Hossein Mousavi at Friday prayers, originally published here:

1330 GMT: Update on the video below. There are two chants: "We are not the people of Kufeh, that abandoned Hossein!" Kufeh is an historical Shia city in Iraq, whose population betrayed the third imam of the Shia Hossein (while also being a play on Mousavi's first name, Mir-Hossein). The second chant is, as reported, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!". [Thanks Mazdak and M.R.]

1155 GMT: Video of Mousavi supporters outside Tehran University. We believe they are chanting, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!" Can anyone translate?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]

Another lower quality video can be viewed here.

1130 GMT: Press TV's unsurprising headline on Friday prayers: "Iran's Rafsanjani urges national unity".

1105 GMT: Some confusion over Mousavi's attendance at Rafsanjani's address. An EA source does not think he was there, however both AP and Reuters report that he was. It is possible that Mousavi was in attendance, but not in the front row- this would be significant in itself.

1030 GMT: A video which is said to show Mousavi supporters at today's sermon has been posted to Facebook. (You may need to be logged in to Facebook to see it- we'll keep an eye out for alternatives.)

1025 GMT: An interesting reading: "Rafsanjani said he 'consulted' some members of the Assembly of Experts. May be an indirect warning to Khamenei."

And another Rafsanjani middle-ground statement, albeit one that will be read (I think) as a slap at the regime: "All of us, people and the government, should act within the law."

1020 GMT: A contact reports that  IRIB may have brought down the volume of Rafsanjani's speech to cloak pro-Mousavi chants coming from the crowd. Mousavi was not present in the VIP area before or during Rafsanjani's speech, and neither Mousavi or Khatami appear to have been in the front rows. VIPs present included: Emami Kashani, Mahmoud Doai, Hassan Rowhani Mehdi Karroubi, Mohsen Rezai, Majid Ansari, Mohammad Reza Aref, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Said Mortazavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar.



1015 GMT: We have located an English translation of Rafsanjani's address, via the excellent NiteOwl.

1005 GMT: More evidence of Rafsanjani's sympathetic stand with protests while not breaking with regime: "Those suffered or mourning should be sympathized with."



1000 GMT: BBC Persian is reporting that police are dispersing protesters in areas surrounding the prayer site.

0955 GMT: A clear point of substance from Rafsanjani (and one fulfilling our morning projection): release the detainees.

0945 GMT: "Basij chanting in support of Khamenei, yet Rafsanjani keeps thanking them as though they are chanting for him"

Initial reading is that Rafsanjani is making a very careful but clear push for "legitimacy", implicitly criticising Government but trying to contain the scope of the challenge: "If there's no Islam we'll be lost. If there's no republic there is no action and no Islam.

0935 GMT: The speech so far: Rafsanjani has made a pointed reference to the pious life of the 7th Imam, Jafar Sadigh, explaining how he defied censorship to promote Islam. Anyone who wishes to make an analogy to present times may do so.

More directly, Rafsanjani (unlilke the Iranian Government and the Supreme Leader) has criticised China for its suppression of Uighur Muslims. For the first time in Iran, cries of "Death to China" are being heard, though Rafsanjani is urging the crowd to be moderate in its criticisms.

0930 GMT: Even at a distance (in this case, a field in eastern Britain), the excitement over Rafsanjani's address can be felt. Basiji are reported to be shouting, but it is also claimed that --- in a prayer service --- people are whistling and chanting for Rafsanjani and the "Green Wave".

Despite the interest, however, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is apparently not carrying the service live. If true, this might be a first for state media.



0920 GMT: Fars reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has unveiled his new cabinet. [link to English translation]

0915 GMT: Some overnight news from an EA contact. According to the pro-Mousavi website Mowj-e-sabz, there were protests in other parts of Mashad while Ahmadinejad was giving his speech. Eyewitnesses spoke of a sizeable security presence, including riot poice and Ansar Hezbollah members, who suppressed booing from protesters and arrested ten.

Mowj-e-sabz also reports that Ahmadinejad was snubbed by Ayatollah Vaez Tabasi, who did not officially welcome him or accompanying him during his visit to the shrine of Imam Reza. This is believed to be the first time in 30 years that the Ayatollah has withheld such courtesies from a sitting president.

0645 GMT: A side story of interest and possible significance. Yesterday it was announced that the head of Iran's nuclear programme had resigned three weeks ago. Later in the day Wikileaks reported that it had received a document outlining an accident at the Iranian nuclear plant being developed at Natanz.

Late last night access to Wikileaks was blocked in Iran.

0530 GMT: So It Begins. As Iran waits for Friday prayers, to be led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, reports are coming in that crowds have been gathering at Enqelab and Vali-e Asr Streets near Tehran University. Heavy security, including basiji militia, is also reported.

This is an important occasion where expectation is not matched by knowledge. As we have been analysing all week, Rafsanjani is a master politician, at least behind the scenes. Before he speaks today, he will have calculated the position and strength of every major player (including himself) and the effect that each of his courses of speech and action might have.

My tendency, given Rafsanjani's priority not only for survival but to extend his power within the system, is that he will use religious rhetoric to call for reconciliation. That can be read by Government supporters as an acceptance of the Supreme Leader's authority and President Ahmadinejad's election, but it can also be read as a re-assertion that the concerns of protesters are legitimate and must be met, not only by a reversal of detentions but also changes in electoral law and a separation of Presidential politics (the Cabinet) and oversight (the Guardian Council).

Rafsanjani will hope that the Supreme Leader will move back from direct involvement in politics (and signs are that this is occurring) and the Revolutionary Guard's influence will be checked. This will give him more space for his own assertions of power within the system.

I could be far wrong, however. Rafsanjani has the capacity to surprise, as he did with his backing of Ayatollah Khamenei to become Supreme Leader in 1989, and if he thinks the moment is right for either 1) an assertion of faith in the status quo or 2) endorsement of the opposition, he will do so.

At this moment, I would be looking for Rafsanjani's possible endorsement, given subtly but clearly, of the political front envisaged by Mir Hossein Mousavi. That would not overturn the election but would open the prospect of a broad base for a "reform" within acceptable (for Rafsanjani) limits.

Booom: U.S. Agrees to Israeli strike on Iran in return for a Palestinian state?

On Thursday, The Times reported that Western and Israeli diplomats are in talks concerning international support for an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran, in return for concessions on a two-state solution.

The passage of two Sa'ar 5-class Israeli missile-class Navy ships through the Suez Canal on Tuesday was offered as the proof of seriousness of the Israeli position. The deployment of these two warships in the Red Sea followed the passage of a Dolphin-class submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike through the international waterway.

“This is preparation that should be taken seriously. Israel is investing time in preparing itself for the complexity of an attack on Iran. These manoeuvres are a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats” an Israeli defense official said.



Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, said that his government explicitly allowed passage of Israeli vessels, and an Israeli admiral said that the drills were “run regularly with the full co-operation of the Egyptians.” This, alongside the claim that Saudi Arabia would allow Israeli jets to use its air space in any strike against Iran, could be seen as another indication of the high possibility of an Israeli raid- one which would have the backing of pro-Israeli Arab states who oppose a nuclear-armed Iran.

A British diplomat has said that, if agreed, an Israeli strike would be possible “within a year.”

Tel Aviv may be using the “existential threat” of Tehran in order to gain extra time which could bring onboard more conciliatory Palestinian leaders, pushed by the Obama administration. Or it may be seriously focusing on a pre-emptive strike which could, again, give it extra time in the peace process, even if a war between Israel and Iran would cause turmoil in the entire region. However, in the second case, Israel would be losing 'the other', which would shatter geo-political, geo-cultural and geo-economical institutions and could cause an identity crisis.

For me, a Washington-led Western camp would go no further than imposing tougher sanctions against Tehran. As I mentioned above, the war would not be limited to two states and would change the dynamics of the entire region. Therefore, the first scenario sounds more logical: an Israeli bluff calling for the acceptance of Israeli demands from the Palestinian Authority. The Obama administration cannot leave Israel on its own. Pushing Palestinians toward the negotiating table along with extra tangible efforts to bring other Arab states, especially Syria, into a wider negotiation platform seems more logical.

On the other hand, news from the other side of the story comes in, and Hamas completes the last piece of the puzzle. Hamas is enjoying the new conjuncture being shaped by the State of Israel. The first Qassam rocket since June 13th was fired into the western Negev Thursday evening by militants in the Gaza Strip. Hamas wants to show that it should not be overlooked in the negotiation process.

Transcript: Rafsanjani's Sermon

LATEST Iran Video: The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)

UPDATE: A more detailed translation can be found here.

Over at Anonymous Iran, NiteOwl is providing an English translation of Rafsanjani's address at Friday prayers:

(Prayers for Muslims)
Before I give out the Khotba (speech of Friday), I must say that the people who have gathered in Tehran University and in streets,
They should know that Friday prayers should not be tainted with slogans and chants that do not belong here.
This is a sacred and an Islamic act.
(More jargon)
The enemies of Islam want to question the legitimacy and effectiveness of our regime.
(Still jargon going on)
The second part of my speech is about the revolution for which people did Jihad.
I want to explain to the younger generation where we started and where we are going with the revolution
The third part of my speech will be about the current situation of Iran.
This will be my personal view,
We are with you in your happiness and your grief.
(bad connection)

Nothing really important going on at this point.
He's just speaking about the early days of the revolution.
He's talking about how they opened up a school in Qom.
He's basically just talking about the early revolution, Qom and such.
he's just talking about the early history of Islam.
Nothing really about the current situation. That is going to come at the end.
He's only speaking about the early history of Islam. Completely irrelevant stuff.
He's talking about how Mohammed built the first mosque in Madina.
Now he's talking about he bought land in Medina to build the second Islamic mosque.
(sounds like he's trying to go for the emotional appeal)
Talking about Medina and the early days of Islam

What we learn from government from Islam is this: Follow god and then there's the people.
The Koran has Allah mentioned 3,000 times.
And the word for people has been used 4 to 5 hundred times.
What Mohammed did mostly was he created love and unity between the people.
The first thing Mohammed did was he united all the tribes in Medina.
Then he went to the people of other religions.
When Jews, Christians and people of other religion came to Medina,
He talked to all of them, and he created a unity within the city.
He created a brotherhood between everyone inside the city.
Between Muslims and non-Muslims.
This was a pact between brothers, between different religions.
This created eternal peace inside a small city.
This small city was able to use this peace and topple gigantic empires.
The government that Mohammed brought was unprecedented.
There were governments, but they were autocracies and they acted against the people.
Mohammed brought a government that was for the people, based on god's law.

When Gabriel came to Mohammed and gave him the first words of the Koran,
(Now reciting those first verses)
This was when the future of Mohammed was cleared for him.
(Explaining the verses)
God created man and gave him understanding and the power to write.
The power that gave us this ability,
He tells us that we have him as the judge.
And when we die, he will remember everything that we have done.
Thus, we shouldn't be arrogant, we should consider god's creatures weak.
Because He is the judge.
(more religious jargon, talking about angels)

Let us ask what sort of society the prophet wanted.
Mohammed wanted all humans to have all the rights,
He didn't want anyone's rights to be infringed upon.
One of the last things he said before he died,
He said, Oh people, I came to say Good Bye to you.
If I have said something to you and I have not done it, please let me know.
If I have taken something from you, then tell me so I could give it back.
I don't want anything to be left for the afterlife.
This is the kind of leader we have.
He paved the way for Islamic unity.
(recites a verse from the Koran)
(Verse talks about unity of Muslims)
God has put love between humans.
It was god who created love between Muslims.

That's how Mohammed created a society that was united as one.
But when he was dying, he realized that this might come to an end.
And that people might break apart and might create enemies with one another.
(explains a couple of incidents that created rifts between earlier Muslims)
Do know that Mohammed is the ideal for everyone,
For all Muslims, for all humans.
His life in Medina is the best example for how a government should operate.
He fought along side his friends and his loved ones at times when he was being attacked from all sides.
Then a day came when his friends captured the Empires of the Sassanids.
But at the end of his life, he realized that there might be rifts between Muslims,
And their unity might be in danger.
In his ten years of prophecy, he created a system upon which we have based our own revolution.
(phone cut off for a little)
(Recites a verse) (reciting more verses)
(Praying for the martyred members of Mohammed's family)

This week, Imam Jafar Sadigh's martyrdom's celebration will be held.
He spent his entire life either in prison or being censored.
(Talking about Imam Jafar Sadigh's life and how pious a man he was)

I want to talk about the death of the Chinese citizens recently,
(People are chanting Azadi .. Azadi .. )
People, I have asked you all to not chant slogans
I am asking you as your Imam at this prayer,
The government of China has quelled the protests.
We would like to give them a brotherly advice,
There are more than a billion Muslims in the world,
China should pay attention to its relations between itself.
Such cruelty could destroy those relations.
There are fighting in Palestine and Pakistan and other places,
Hopefully they will stop.

The elections that took place,
The preparations were good.
We liked what went before the election,
The four candidates,
They talked in an open environment,
People became hopeful about the elections,
We should have been proud of this election,
Because people went to vote, in large numbers,
We should thank them for voting.
For taking part in the election is such huge numbers,
Alas, if only that environment continued to this day.
What happened after the election was not what we expected it to be.
Let us ask ourselves what we want,
What does the revolution want?

You are listening to someone who has been with the revolution every minute of the revolution
We know what Imam Khomeini wanted,
What his ideas were,
Imam Khomeini always said that you should always listen to the people,
See what the people want,
If the people are with us, then we have everything.
The Islamic Revolution was the way of Mohammed.
People should be brought into the system first,
This is why Imam Khomeini was successful.

It took years of hardship for us to get to where we are.
We remember when people filled the streets,
When they took to protesting with the Imam Khomeini,
Against a government that was getting help from the East and the West,
But people stood firm.
And they succeeded.
After the success of the revolution,
We were with Imam Khomeini,
He always said that without the participation of the people the Islamic government would never be successful.
The role that Imam gave the people was very high.
(Story about Mohammed's late life about how important people are)
(More religious jargon)

When we were writing the new constitution,
We asked the Imam for advice,
He put a lot of emphasis on the role of the people.
He also knew that people's vote was the most important thing inside our country.
Everything depended upon the people's vote.
People should directly elect the president, the parliament, the local council.
It was all about the vote of the people.
This is a theocracy,
A theocratic republic.
(People chanting)
Be patient, be calm.
If the government is not Islamic, then we are heading no where.
If it is not a republic, then it doesn't amount to anything.

The elections that took place,
We have taken a step.
What I think is the solution to what is going on is that, at the end of the process,
There were people who created false propaganda,
(People chanting REALLY loudly)
A large number of people became suspicious,
We need to clear their suspicions.

Today, we need unity more than ever.
Our country needs to be united against this danger.
My brothers,
My sisters,
My view is this,
We should all think together
So our country could remain united,
Against this danger that is facing us.
Our enemies are trying to destroy our unity,

I have several proposals for this,
I have talked to my friends about this.
I'm going to express them to you as well.

The most important thing that has happened is that the trust that brought the people to vote in such large number is not there anymore.
We need to return this trust.
We all need to follow the law. And I'm talking about the government, the parliament, the Islamic Courts and the security forces.
We need to follow the laws.
All problems can be solved if we only follow the framework of the laws.
We need to create an environment where all sides could come together and discuss their issues.
We need to be able to sit down like brothers and sisters and talk about our differences.
Unfortunately,
The chance that was given to the Guardian Council of five days to get people together and regain their trust was not used.
That is not there anymore.
But we still have time to unite.

We shouldn't imprison our own people,
We should let these people return to their homes,
We shouldn't let our enemies laugh at us because we've imprisoned our own people.
We should sit together with mourners,
And we should console them,
And bring them back closer to the system.
We should not be impatient now.

Please do not censor media outlets that have legally obtained permits.
Let them do what they want to do legally.
Allow a peaceful and friendly environment to prosper.
We are all together in the Islamic Revolution,
We've all spent years in suffering,
We've all given martyrs for the cause of the revolution,
This unity needs to fostered.

I'm hopeful that we will be able to achieve this unity in the future,
And I'm hopeful we will get out of this situation,
Based on the wishes of the people,
And consensus among the leaders.

May God Bless You All.
May God Bless You All.
May God keep you all safe,
Keep you with this spirit, around.

(End of speech.)

Iran: America's "Not-So-Smart Power" and the Nuclear Programme

Hillary Clinton's address to the Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday was awful.

Sorry. I should be fair: if the speech was meant as a statement of US strategy, it was awful. Perhaps, however, that was not its intent.

Perhaps, for example, the speech was to given Clinton a bureaucratic boost in an increasingly tense conflict with other Executive agencies. For example, the National Security Council and the State Department have been sniping at each other for weeks. Last month, National Security James Jones went on an embarrassingly unsubtle media tour to prove he was very relevant. This, however, only angered Clinton's people; have a look at columnist/lackey Jim Hoagland in the Washington Post last weekend to get a flavour of the bitterness.

Ostensibly, however, Clinton didn't show up at the CFR to big herself up in the contest to be first after President Obama. Instead, she went on and on about how America would lead the world in the 21st century through "smart power".

The concept isn't new: it was coined in a Center for Strategic and International Studies report in 2007. And it's not a strategy. It's an approach, or rather a series of approaches, linked to an assertion of abstract values: "liberty, democracy, justice, and opportunity". It has the merit, in contrast to the unipolar folly of the Bush Administration, of recognising that the US might need to consult and work with other countries and groups. On its own, however, "smart power" offers little in specific action to deal with cases of concern.
Take, for example, the passage of Clinton's speech, amidst a hodge-podge litany of situations, on Iran. The Secretary of State began with recognition of the internal conflict:

We watched the energy of Iran’s election with great admiration, only to be appalled by the manner in which the government used violence to quell the voices of the Iranian people, and then tried to hide its actions by arresting foreign journalists and nationals, and expelling them, and cutting off access to technology. As we and our G-8 partners have made clear, these actions are deplorable and unacceptable.

"Deplorable and unacceptable": so what would US "smart power" do in response? Well, nothing, really. Clinton had made her verbal posture merely to get to her preferred point of departure:

We [have] offered Iran’s leaders an unmistakable opportunity: Iran does not have a right to nuclear military capacity, and we’re determined to prevent that. But it does have a right to civil nuclear power if it reestablishes the confidence of the international community that it will use its programs exclusively for peaceful purposes.

Clinton did make token nods to other issues, "Iran can become a constructive actor in the region if it stops threatening its neighbors and supporting terrorism," and she returned to the internal dimension, "It can assume a responsible position in the international community if it fulfills its obligations on human rights." Her priority, however was clear: US-Iranian relations (and, for Washington, Iran's relations with the world) would be set by the outcome of the nuclear talks.

Which is another way of saying, for this version of "smart power", that those demonstrating in Iran don't figure in the equation. President Ahmadinejad's standing, and that of the regime, rises or falls not because of the handling of the election, the crackdown on protestors, or the mass detentions but because of its willingness to accept Washington's line on an acceptable nuclear programme.

In cynical but pragmatic light, that might make sense if the Administration was committed to a resolution that would also open up co-operation with Iran on other vital regional issues. For example, an accommodation on nuclear energy would ease the discussions with Tehran on how to manage the Afghan intervention and political and economic development effectively. It would remove one possible obstacle to Middle Eastern talks, especially on Israel and Palestine.

Clinton's framing, however, offered none of these important connections. This was a case of Nuke Talks or Else: "The choice is clear. We remain ready to engage with Iran, but the time for action is now. The opportunity will not remain open indefinitely."

Which means what? The deadline of late September (previously end of 2009 but advanced by some officials in leaks to the press last week) before tougher economic sanctions are sought?

I'd be interested to see how US officials explain how those sanctions would benefit the opposition whose "human rights" are supposedly of concern. The economic effect would be merely more restrictions on the population while the political effect is to hand the regime another nationalist card --- do you really want the Americans dictating what we can do?

(The sharp-eyed will note that many Iranians, irrespective of their position on the election, are blaming this week's air crash near Tehran, with the loss of 168 lives, on Washington's tight restrictions on aircraft and parts.)

The point here is not that the US should charge into Iran on behalf of the protests. It is that "smart power" reduces those protesters to irrelevance. The unsubtle signal is a pat on the head before turning back to "those who matter" --- the Government --- for the make-or-break talks.

The alternative? As my grandmother would say, "If you can't say something nice, say nothing." The nuclear issue is not exactly the Iranian Government's chief concern at the moment. The US demand that it has to be Number One is a distraction from that internal reality and does nothing constructive.

So, want to be smart about smart power, Hillary? In this case.....

Shut up.

The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani's Prayers

NEW The “Other” Rafsanjani: Faezeh Hashemi Criticises Supreme Leader, Government, Khatami
NEW Iran: How Friday's Prayers Might Develop
UPDATED Iran: How Many Protesters Have Died?
The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers

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1940 GMT: A contact reports that Ahmadinejad's business trip to Mashad could be met with opposition demonstrations. Online rumour has it that an 'assassination attempt' will be staged by the Ahmadinejad camp, which will provide an excuse to increase security and surveillance in Iran- which can then be used against the opposition.

1930 GMT: A group of scholars have released a letter in support of Ayatollah Ostadi, who said after leading prayers in Qom last Friday that they would be his last for the foreseeable future. [Link: Persian / English via iran88] One of the scholars is Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli. [Link: Persian / English]

1920 GMT: An article on the UG Government's Radio Farda site demonstrates the diversity of opinion over what may be in The Rafsanjani speech tomorrow. The staunchlly pro-Government Kayhan is asking for a "unifying speech that is worthy of a pillar of Islamic leadership", while members of the reformist party have stated that "generally speaking, Mr. Rafsanjani's speeches in Friday prayers  have always had large political significance with huge effects".

1715 GMT: A possibly significant development from Wikileaks on the resignation of Aghazadeh as head of the Iranian nuclear programme: "Week ago, source in Iran gave WL a report of a nuclear accident at Natanz. Now Iran's nuke head resigns-no reason. Anyone know more?"

1610 GMT: Twitter's IranRiggedElect states that Mehdi Karroubi will also attend Friday prayers. (AUT News link, in Persian).

1600 GMT: The Guardian has updated its database of dead and detained in Iran- it now contains almost 700 names.

1545 GMT: Twitter's iranbaan reports says that, "Etemade Melli newspaper reports that Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Ali  Nategh Nouri will not attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration ceremony."

1230 GMT: How Big is This News? Iranian Students News Agency reports that the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, submitted his resignation to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad almost three weeks ago.

It is unclear if the resignation is related to post-election conflict and why news of it was not released until now. An Enduring America correspondent notes, however, that the development could be very unsettling in the ongoing manoeuvres between Iran and the "West": "Aghazadeh was close to Ayatollah Khamenei but had also developed a good rapport with [former International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammad] El-Baradei. He was one of the last of the Khatami-era officials."

Combined with Hillary Clinton's clumsy statement on Iran yesterday --- the US will "engage" but only to the end of September --- this news points to difficulties related to but beyond Iran's internal situation.

0835 GMT: Some public threats are being made that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami "will be beaten up" in Friday prayers. Possibly in response, the conservative newspaperKayhan has declared that " while some individuals claiming to be hezbollah [followers of the party] may engage in thuggish behavior, the intelligent Iranian public should recognize that this behavior is not hezbollah etiquette and should ostracize such individuals".

0830 GMT: More on the efforts of the Interior Ministry (0700 GMT) to check the protests. The ministry, which currently can authorise or ban political parties, has taken the unprecedented step of declaring that its permission is required for a "political front" of groups. The step comes after news this week that Mir Hossein Mousavi was seeking to form a front for the opposition challenge.

0745 GMT: Fintan Dunne has offered an estimate of 245 protester deaths since 12 June. We've posted an analysis in our separate blog on the casualties.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strikes Back (a Bit). Interior Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie shook a fist at the opposition in a press conference on Wednesday, claiming that the Intelligence Ministry enquiries into post-election conflict were finding culprits: "The role of some of these political figures has been proven and their case is nearing completion."

Beside putting out an unsubtle warning 48 hours before Friday prayers, Mohseni-Ejeie was also indicating that the Government would hold out against pressure to release detainees. As cases were still being investigated, "no exact time can be announced for their release." He added that confessions obtained from those arrested could be made public, should the country's judiciary decides to do so.

0500 GMT: Just over 24 hours to go before Friday prayers in Tehran, to be led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and all is relatively quiet in Iran. The one important exception was last night's confirmation by Mir Hossein Mousavi that he will join the march to the prayer site. The news, which broke on Mousavi's website and Facebook page, was reconfirmed three hours ago.

In the lull before the event, the most intriguing discussion has been of Rafsanjani's approach tomorrow. Maryam at Keeping the Change has an excellent consideration of "the delicate balancing act that Rafsanjani will likely play on Friday". Reviewing both the former President's objectives and the hopes and fears of the opposition movement, Maryam summarises from "a source in the Mousavi campaign": "They are expecting Rafsanjani's speech to unite the opposing factions, though they also believe he will speak about the rights of the people and be critical of the government's treatment of them during the election crisis."

That assessment points to some interesting realities and some even more interesting questions. Rafsanjani's emergence highlights the striking weakness of President Ahmadinejad, whose relegation to the sidelines has been further illustrated by his flight to Mashaad and thus his non-appearance in Tehran on Friday. Just as striking has been the recent silence of the Supreme Leader. I cannot recall a statement by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the 18 Tir protests of last Thursday, which were scathing about the supposed role of his son, Mojtaba, in manipulating the election and leading security forces against the opposition.

But this is no means now a simple alliance of Rafsanjani with the Green Movement against the Government. Maryam's assessment points to the negotiation that is taking place between the former President, who after all was a key reason why Khameini ascended to the Supreme Leadership, and those who have been pressing for substantial change to the system. If Rafsanjani calls for a unity government, does Mousavi accept? Under what conditions? What of the reactions of Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and other opposition leaders, some of whom still remain in detention? And how would the Rafsanjani appeal be received by a fragmented clerical leadership in Qom?

Maybe more importantly, is "compromise", if that is the word offered or hinted at by Rafsanjani, a word that will be accepted by a mass of protesters who have rallied but then been beaten --- verbally, emotionally, and sometimes physically --- by those in power?