The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers

The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani's Prayers

NEW Iran's Culture Protest: Singer Shajarian Turns Government to Dust
LATEST Iran Video: Mousavi, Rahnavard with Sohrab Arabi’s Family (14 July)
Iran: Scott Lucas on “Sea of Green Radio”
Iran: Facing the Rubicon of the Supreme Leader’s Authority
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Ripples on the Surface

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1940 GMT: Today, it was Mehdi Karroubi who carried out the opposition strategy of high-profile meetings with families of detainees.

1745 GMT: A Quiet Afternoon --- And Then. After hours where little happened, Mir Hossein Mousavi confirmed on his website that he will attend Friday prayers as part of a march "to collect freedoms" from the Government.

1105 GMT: Tabnak doesn't stop with the Kordan revelations (see 1030 GMT) in its embarrassment of the Government. It also runs an extensive, unflattering profile of Mohammad Mehdi Zahdi, the Minister of Science, Higher Education, and Technology

1030 GMT: Dishing the Dirt. One sign of a Government's weakness is when former members start giving up secrets. So it proves today with President Ahmadinejad's former Interior Minister, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign over a faked Ph.D. from Oxford University.

So far Kordan's revelations, offered to Tabnak, mainly concern the current Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, but Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, now an advisor to the Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rafiqdoost, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard, and Ahmadinejad also appear.

1000 GMT: Estimated deaths in this morning's plane crash now at 168.

Further arrests: Marjan Abdollahian and Koroush Javan Khorshid of Hamshahri newspaper have been detained.

0900 GMT: Iranian state media are confirming the crash of a plane travelling from Tehran to Yerevan in Armenia. The plane came down northwest of the Iranian capital near Qazvin. All 150 aboard are feared dead.

0800 GMT: Following our update below about the dynamics of Friday's prayer service, a post by "Maryam" at Keeping the Change catches the eye, both for its call for demonstration and its suspicion of the former President leading the prayers: "If Rafsanjani's Friday speech is perceived to be against the demonstrators and/or in favor of the regime, then it is likely that the divide that has slowly been developing between the protestors and the Reformists will be radically transformed into an insurmountable abyss, and that the course of the Iranian uprising will once again be instantly altered."

0600 GMT: Early in the post-election conflict, the US analyst Gary Sick commented that "Iranians prefer chess to football". I'm not sure about that: the folks I met in Iran were passionate about the latter (Persepolis v. Esteglhal rivals Manchester United v. Liverpool or even the good Red Sox v. the evil Yankees). The chess part, however, is more than appropriate. This is a contest which will not be decided by one overwhelming blow. Instead, it is a series of moves, some of which cannot yet be read even if they can be anticipated.

Momentum for Friday's prayer service, led by Hashemi Rafsanjani, continues to build. Marchers are anticipating a gathering which cannot be declared illegal, and the participation of key leaders is eagerly awaited though not yet confirmed. The latest symbolic move was the visit of Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, to the family of the slain protestor Sohrab Arabi (see video in separate entry).

At the same time, there is still uncertainty over how Friday will unfold. Rafsanjani is a powerful figure, but he is also a politician who is not trusted by many people. There is speculation that, rather than presenting a symbolic alliance with the challenge of the protesters, he will use the prayer service to put forth a limited compromise. Ebrahim Nabavi, the prominent Iranian writer living in Belgium, has published an open letter to Rafsanjani, "with much respect and peace", asking him to represent faithfully the concerns of the people.

If so, he may be serving a Government which continues to stagger amidst tension and division. While a window of 2-6 August for Ahmadinejad's inauguration as President has been announced, it is notable that it is still three weeks away. The regime's attempts to limit any challenge are being firmly resisted: Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former President's brother, countered a written declaration against the protests by General Sayyed Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, saying that Firouzabadi gravely insulted the Iranian people.

And in Qom, where unease amongst clerics is increasing, even if it is not emerging as a direct challenge to the Government, the staunchly pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has tried to hit back with a series of answers to questions about the Iranian system of clerical authority (velayat-e-faqih) and the position of the Supreme Leader.

Iran's Culture Protest: Singer Shajarian Turns Government to Dust

The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers

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UPDATE (15 July, 0800 GMT): Just after I post this, "Mani" sends an update. "Another musician throws his hat in the ring. Farhad Fakhredini, the head of the National Iranian Orchestra has also resigned from the podium. The government has tried to depoliticize Mr. Fakhredini's resignation by stating that "it is due to illness" .Fakhredini responded, "His illness is indeed due to the recent heartrending events, and it is these heartrending events that have les to the cancellation of the National Orchestra concerts".

---


In any sustained political conflict, culture plays a vital role, and the post-election challenge in Iran is no exception. The Sea of Green has been represented in dozens of photographs, films, and songs, while the Government has tried to limit the response by detaining prominent artists. This week the well-known singer Mohsen Namjoo was jailed for five years in absentia for allegedly insulting the Koran in a 2008 song (which can be heard via YouTube); the conviction may also have been spurred by Namjoo's statement in favour of the Green protest.

The most prominent cultural symbol, however, has been the response of Shajarian, perhaps the best-known interpreter of Persian classical music. We wrote briefly about this yesterday, but a guest correspondent, "Mani", has now provided us with a detailed analysis:

Shajarian's run-in with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has led to a fiasco, thanks to the shrill defamation tactics of the Ahmadinejad government. Demonstrating its contemptuous attitude towards public opinion, even towards sections that include the main base of their supporters, the President may have turned culture into a weapon against his rule.

The argument started when the President characterised protesters as "nothing more than dust". Shajarian appropriated the word, publicly requesting the IRIB to not "broadcast any of the recordings of dust people like himself".

Shajarian's request led to the publication of a defamatory and highly insulting article, published in Ansar News by an anonymous author. The blogosphere seems to agree that the author was Fatemeh Rajabi, a strident voice for the Government through Kayhan, Ansar News,and other outlets.

If this is true, Rajabi has hit a new low, and the clique has bit off a bit more than it can chew. Shajarian is a public icon in the Iranian music scene, always referred to as "the Master of Persian Classical Music". His music is popular amongst huge swathes of Iranian society from the secular rich in North Tehran to the clerical novices in Qom to the working class of Javadieh. Indeed, a letter from "the child of a Martyr of the Iran-Iraq War" blasted the attack on Shajarian by Ansar News as "being absolutely anti-Islamic, vindictive and opportunistic".

Meanwhile, IRIB has pointedly ignored Shajarian's request and continued to broadcast his music, leading to the musician lodging a complaint with the judiciary. The broadcaster has miscalculated. Publicizing an insult to a cultural icon will add to the unpopularity of the regime. It is no surprise that the pro-reformist newspaper Hayate-no has put this story with a picture of Shajarian on the top on their front page.

LATEST Iran Video: Mousavi, Rahnavard with Sohrab Arabi's Family (14 July)

Iran Video: Sohrab Arabi Funeral (13 July)

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14 July: Sohrab Arabi's Mother, Parvin Fahimi, Talks to BBC Persian (in Farsi)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-d0gope4g[/youtube]

14 July: Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard Visit Arabi Family Home (Part 1 of 2)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtNJGAmqYGM&feature=related[/youtube]

14 July: MirHossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard Visit Arabi Family Home (Part 2 of 2)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNSCu5bmqDA[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (14 July): Ripples on the Surface

NEW Iran: Scott Lucas on "Sea of Green Radio"
NEW Iran: Facing the Rubicon of the Supreme Leader’s Authority
NEW Beyond the Election: Talking Turkey to Iran?
The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers

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2140 GMT: A Convenient Business Trip. Reports that President Ahmadinejad is going to Mashaad on Friday which means (coincidentally, I'm sure) that he will not be at the prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

2000 GMT: From Sea of Green to River of Blood. An unusual protest in Mahabad in Kurdistan, where activists turned the water red. A correspondent writes that the red river is in honour of Dr Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou, who was assassinated in 1989. Some claim that President Ahmadinejad was involved in the murder.

1900 GMT: In addition to the meetings of opposition politicians with families of detainees, Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, visited the family of the slain demonstrator Sohrab Arabi on Tuesday. (hat tip to JE re the photo)


1730 GMT: Parleman News offers an interesting overview (in Farsi) of the dynamics between Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership of Friday prayers in Tehran and the possible attendance of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami in a march to the site.

1530 GMT: The Hunters Become the Hunted? Yesterday we reported on pro-Government newspapers, having published scathing criticism of opposition leaders, being challenged by lawsuits.

It now appears that this may be a co-ordinated strategy. Reports are coming in that Alireza Beheshti has sued Kayhan for alleging that he has had connections with "foreign" agents and Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi has sued Iran paper, Fars news agency, and Raja News. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami have also filed lawsuits.

1400 GMT: Clerical Unease. We've just posted a separate entry on an emerging issue: do clerics dare challenge the authority of the Supreme Leader?

1100 GMT: When Culture and Politics Collide. A reader reminds us of the show of defiance by Shajarian, one of the most popular classical Iranian musicians. When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, celebrating his "victory", compared protesters to "dust", Shajarian replied that the President was also dust. He then refused to allow any broadcast of his music (except for the song "Rabbanaa") by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

For an introduction to Shajarian's music, I've watched his performance in the benefit concert after the Bam earthquake in 2003.

0835 GMT: A disturbing story about Iranian surveillance. There have been rumours for days that those entering the country have been subject to detailed investigation about their contacts in Iran. Now National Public Radio in the US reports, albeit via second-hand information from a "trusted colleague":

On passing through the immigration control at the airport in Tehran, [an Iranian-American] was asked by the officers if she has a Facebook account. When she said "no", the officers pulled up a laptop and searched for her name on Facebook. They found her account and noted down the names of her Facebook friends.

0740 GMT: One to Watch --- Compromise in the Cabinet? State media is already highlighting the prospect of a Cabinet reshuffle by President Ahmadinejad. Now a still speculative but clear idea is emerging of using that reshuffle for a compromise. In an interview published today, Morteza Nabavi, a "moderate right-wing conservative" and managing director of Resalat newspaper, advocates a new Administration that will "use both factions".

0625 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" reports: "Mehrdad Heydari, a prominent reporter in northeastern Iran, was killed in Mashhad under suspicious circumstances today by unknown individuals. Heydari had been publishing reports that were deemed anti-government in the past few weeks....Before Heydari, Hamid Maddah, a member of Mousavi’s party, died under torture in Mashhad two weeks ago."

0605 GMT: Latest on plans for the march to Friday prayers. The newssite Sharaf says it is probable that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will participate, but spokesmen for both men say decisions will be announced in forthcoming days through "official channels".

0600 GMT: A significant sign of Iran's post-election isolation abroad. The contract for the long-awaited Nabucco gas pipeline in Turkey was signed yesterday but Iran, one of the major producers of natural gas, was not invited.

0545 GMT: Etemade Melli claims that the number of "prohibited" speakers on a list kept by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) has grown from 100 to 1200 since the election.

0500 GMT: An unusual day yesterday. While there was no single dramatic event, a series of political and religious developments gradually put together a picture of a regime in discussions and some tensions over changes. As a pro-reformist correspondent put it, "The reform movement seems to have gained momentum and it is fighting the Ahmadinejad faction back. Considering that brute-force and coercion form an integral part of the modus operandi of this faction, I hazard to guess that this lack of suppression indicates that Ahmadinjad's group is weakened enough that it can not conjure up its millitant thugs as easily as it used to."

I'm cautious about that assessment. Detentions continue, and we still have not seen what would happen if there was a sustained attempt at a mass gathering of protest. However, the political signs were definitely of pressure for some recognition of the complaints over the election and its aftermath. And what made this even more striking was that the news of that pressure came not through the "West" or Twitter chatter but through Iran's own media.

News in the Western "mainstream" was limited to the statements of Ayatollah Montazeri criticising the regime, but our updates yesterday tracked a series of complaints from other clerics and politicians over detentions, the electoral process, and the state of the Ahmadinejad Government. Those complaints brought some rather heavy-handed (and panicked?) denunciations in the pro-Ahmadinejad press, which in turn led to threats of court action against "conservative" Iranian newspapers. Even more importantly, those complaints have brought a limited response, for example, the ruling that no person can serve both in the President's Cabinet and on the Guardian Council and on the request for Parliament to consider a new electoral law.

The issue is how far the regime bends. We are waiting to see the outcome of a series of talks being held by the National Security Commission. Reports yesterday indicated that, having spoken to opposition politicians, the NSC was now speaking to President Ahmadinejad. In Parliament, there was criticism of some of Ahmadinejad's advisors, notably his chief spokesman/Justice Minister.

And, of course, there is Friday. Supporters of the Government responded to the news that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani would lead Tehran prayers with the rumours that 1) no, he wouldn't 2) if he did, it would be the last time. Rafsanjani's supporters knocked down those stories. And the former President? He was meeting with novices in the religious school at Khorosan: "The clergy must have a relevant program for addressing the needs of society and should not be out of touch with social phenomena".

LATEST Iran Video: Sohrab Arabi Funeral (13 July)

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Challenge Renewed

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Warning: Emotionally Graphic Coverage

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPJCu1Cln-Q[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Dioz-GANII&feature=channel_page[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zls44XQBsF0&feature=channel[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7cCAflWfoM&feature=channel[/youtube]