Thursday
Jul222010
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
Thursday, July 22, 2010 at 6:34 
EA has caught up in a mystery for 36 hours, as Ayatollah Khamenei's dramatic fatwa --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- started to disappear from Iranian state media. Given the timing of the Supreme Leader's supposed declaration and the religious and political circumstances, what happened and what does it mean? Mr Verde, who put out the initial interpretation of the fatwa (strength or weakness?) on Wednesday, takes a look:
Khamenei’s own site, unlike the case of other fatwas such as the March pronouncement that the Fire Festival is evil, did not publish the “I am the Prophet” fatwa. Instead, in its newsfeed, it had a link to a page announcing the fatwa on another site.
Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verde)
Issuing of the fatwa in that form was a disaster.
Before explaining, a basic point: most of the statements and claims that Khamenei makes in the fatwa are nothing new. Both the terminology and the substance have been used before by Islamic Republic officials. The only relatively new claim is that he is a successor of the Prophet Mohammad (although he alluded to this before when he was meeting Iranian officials and, to back up his demand that people should follow him, quoted a verse from the Qu'ran that asks Muslims to follow the Prophet). One of the titles that regime officials used to use to describe Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei is “rahba-r moslemin-e jahan” (the leader of the Muslims of the world). Another is “nayebe barhagh-e emam-e zaman” (the rightful successor of the hidden Imam).
Sine all this has been said before, why is the current episode a disaster? Well....
*This time Khamenei, who is the Islamic Republic’s highest authority, is personally making these claims about his status. Up to now he and other regime officials would have had plausible deniability if questioned about these dubious claims, attributing them to low-level people and declaring this is not our official position. Now it is going to be very difficult to give a convincing answer, say to Saudi officials who might have a question or two about claims of being a rightful successor to the Prophet or leader of the Muslims of the world. Similar problems will arise if the Supreme Leader's circle is questioned Shia Muslim scholars and clerics like Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani.
*The fact that Khamenei is making this claim BEFORE any other independent senior clerics and Grand Ayatollahs have made such a declaration suggests that he is trying to grab for himself the position of successor to the Prophet, rather than following the consensus of Shia clerics. If any other Grand Ayatollahs now back up Khamenei’s claims, it will appear as if they were forced into it by the regime.
*Such a fatwa is the same as officially admitting the end of the rule of law and an end to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic.
Challenges to the regime claim that it is taking parts of the Constitution, such as Article 110 which covers the authority of the Supreme Leader, and expanding them to the point where other articles --- people’s right to determine their own destiny, independence of the judiciary, Parliament’s duty to pass legislation --- become useless. Khamenei’s interventions, as in the Islamic Azad University crisis or the corruption case of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, render the rule of law ineffective.
Now Khamenei is saying that he has the right to do as he pleases, not ifs and no buts. He sees no necessity for the constitution and the laws of the land, as he --- the rightful successor to the Prophet and the Imams and the leader of the Muslims of the world --- can decide whenever he wants what should or should not be done. This will lead to charges that the country is being ruled in an arbitrary manner. It will also reduce any elections to the superfluous. If such a fatwa were to stand, then elected officials would become courtiers in Khamenei’s service, not the servants of the people.
*The timing could not have been worse. One of the aims of last week's bombing in southeastern Iran is to create tensions between the Shias and Sunnis there and across Iran. This fatwa only increases the Shia-Sunni tensions.
*This fatwa is a clear sign of the weakness of Khamenei on a personal and a political level. Personally, because he sees the need to elevate himself to the level of the Prophet. Politically, because he may be seeing that his orders are not being obeyed; so he has to use violence to force through his will and has to hide behind the Prophet to make himself look respectable.
Still, Khamenei and his advisors have long held the views that are expressed in the fatwa. Why release it in this dramatic form?
*Perhaps Khamenei is finding it increasing difficult to run the day-to-day affairs of the state, due to insubordination from all quarters, and wanted this fatwa to be the reason for people to follow orders and the threat in case they do not.
*Perhaps this was supposed to be a “private” statement --- like the rumoured fatwa from Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi ordering election manipulation last year --- and it was leaked. If it was leaked officially, then it is a serious miscalculation. If it was leaked unofficially, then Khamenei should be very worried about who would publicise such a sensitive statement.
*Perhaps it is to test the water before an official declaration.
*Perhaps Khamenei is preparing for a big push against the reformists and is trying to claim unquestionable legitimacy for himself.
*Perhaps the Supreme Leader is trying to counter criticism of killings and detentions by saying that this is what the Prophet would have done.
*Perhaps it is, rather in desperation, aimed at pushing back against criticism of Khamenei, only some of which may be in the public domain.
*Perhaps the infighting amongst the conservatives/principalists is to the point where it is worrying Khamenei. He is therefore trying to remind them that he is the top man and they should not forget that.
*Perhaps Khamenei is feeling that he is under pressure not from the reformists but from President Ahmadinejad, who is looking to bypass the Supreme Leader, the conservatives who are upset about the Government's rule, and the traditionalists who are seeing that Ahamdinejad is trying to sideline them.
Thanks to Khamenei’s handling of the post-election crisis, his other option is giving in to the reformists, something he had been desperately tying to avoid for over a decade now. So he is forced to make a very grand declaration in an attempt to defend himself.
*Perhaps this is personal vanity on the part of Khamenei.
I would watch for reactions from the reformists and senior clerics; however, my preliminary assessment is that the public appearance of the fatwa, however it came about, seems to have been big a mistake. I would not be surprised if it was expunged like the misguided declaration on the "sacrilege" of the Fire Festival.
Reader Comments (12)
Thank you, Mr Verde, for this thorough and detailed analysis. Your long list of 'perhaps' already points to the multifunctional nature of Khamenei's fatwa, serving to unite his troops, consolidate his power and aspirations, and threaten his rivals. One point however is missing:
Apart from being a show of force, this fatwa could also serve to endow him with the required religious credentials to appoint his son Mojtaba as an Ayatollah, which is absolutely necessary for installing him as his successor.
The cold reactions of the maraje during the past year, but also staged attacks on their homes and offices in Qom, and the heckling of Khomeini's grandson all prove a serious rift within the clerical camp and attest to the SL's growing isolation. Thus any attempt to convince his fellows of declaring Mojtaba as an Ayatollah appears futile.
Being inable (and unwilling) to overcome this rift, he has taken the bull by the horns and declared himself not only as infallible, but also as omnipotent in the religious sense. As a successor to the Prophet he can appoint as Ayatollah whomever he wants, especially his son.
The reactions on the domestic front may reach from overt confrontation to more or less hidden dissent by the maraje, but the effect will remain the same, i.e. zero. The "Fuehrer's" silence towards the unprecedented attacks on his fellows in Qom leaves no doubt about that.
As to possible reactions on the international front (Arab world) the situation is even worse, especially with regards to Saudi Arabia, being not only an abhorrent kingdom, but also an ally of the "Big Satan" himself. Like AN, who does not stop insulting foreign leaders and boasting of himself, the SL is determined to insult the Muslim majority -- devil-may-care...
Arshama
[...] Enduring America hat eine interessante Analyse dazu veröffentlicht (auf Englisch) [...]
[...] a form of personal dictatorship.” Writing at his blog, Enduring America, professor Scott Lucas argues that the substance and terminology “are nothing new” and that officials of the Islamic [...]
Perhaps this is an indication of mental illness? It is common in mental hospitals for pts. to be delusional and see themselves as omnipotent...
Thank you again for a great analysis Senior Verde.
Arshama - Interesting theory on the self endowment angle.
"East Wind, if you have a cure, now's the time." -
Very artful written by Abdulkarim Soroush - with a shovelful biting mockery and sarcasm – really worth to read - and applicable to Mr. Verdes analysis.
http://www.drsoroush.com/English/By_DrSoroush/E-CMB-20100619-FlaggingOratory.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.drsoroush.com/English/By_DrSoroush/E...
Two Citations from this piece - using Mr. Verdes “Perhaps” -
Perhaps SL had lacked spiritual authority from the start; he eventually frittered away his political authority, too?
Perhaps SL has eaten the forbidden fruit of guardianship and, now, like Adam in paradise, he waits, naked and dispossessed, to receive the order to fall and to descend to Earth. ?
"*Perhaps this is personal vanity on the part of Khamenei."
Normally I wouldn't write here, since I don't have much to add. But, related to Arshama's mention of Mojtaba, and I'm not being glib - are we certain he is still mentally sharp? Be it conditions related to health, age, or stress? Would such a gaffe as was made during the khutba of May 4th have happened earlier (or rather, has it)?
Or perhaps these are just erratic, shambolic spasms related to such political crises as speculated on above.
I would say that I do think this shows concern over the maraje from Khamenei over many such factors such as traditional quietism, to Reformist tendencies, to having more credentials and clout than he does, and -- to succession.
Such arrogant myopia could also prove very interesting in the Sunni Arab world (or Shi'a Najaf, and even Southern Beirut). I'd like a follow up on this, if there is anything to report.
Edit: Gunniy, I remember that Soroush letter after clicking it open. Oops, I guess it subconsciously entered my post a little...
The Supreme leader is the Supreme Leader of Ineptitude in Governance and he is feeling the pressure. He prefers Amadinejad because Ahmadinejad is enough of a bufoon that he used to make SL look good by comparison. He can easily manipulate him. Rafsanjani proposed Khameni as Supreme leader because he lacked to religious credentials and could be easily manipulated at that time. The country is hostage to the ego of this man and the fact that the IRGC finds it in it's best interest to uphold him.
Hi Kurt, doesn`t matter if you know that piece already - it`s worth to read it two times - or not?
Wildblue Satellite Internet - The Broadband Satellite Leader...
I found your entry interesting thus I've added a Trackback to it on my weblog :)...
Is there a video showing the speech he made? I want to hear it in Farsi and make sure that that there are no mis translations. If there is a video link of the speech please show it! :)
Sara
I have only seen English translations - and as far as I know , it was a written Fatwa , which seems to have been removed from websites very soon after it was published. Perhaps others here will know where it can still be seen??
Barry