Iran Follow-Up: The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US "Neoconservatives"

Yesterday I noted --- partly because I was annoyed, partly because I was amused --- that Enduring America had made an unexpected cameo appearance in a sweeping attack, published by the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz, on US "neo-conservatives" as "false friends" of the Green Movement.

Mr Verde follows up by analysing the significance of the story far beyond Rah-e-Sabz and the article:

Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”

First, the reference to EA in the article:

The website “Enduring America” (meaning “Sustainable America”), by using the logo of the Pentagon for its site, pretends to support the Green Movement. The website “Tehran Bureau” has been criticized by many of its readers because it claims that it supports the freedom movement in Iran while at the same time it has an Israeli analyst, who writes his comments from the viewpoint of Israel’s interests.

The author is using reference to EA as an ill-fitting “filler” to move from Huntington to Tehran Bureau. There is no reference to any content, just a mention of the site name, its translation into Persian, and a reference to the site logo. Beyond this, there is no substance to the “exposure” –-- as the author would like to see it –-- of EA as part of the great neocon conspiracy to ensure that Iran does not become democratic.

The author starts the article with a quote from Ataollah Mohajerani, a Minister in the Khatami Government. It mentions Moajerani’s article “Keyhan and the CIA” (29 Khordad/ 19 June), and his 28 June speech about the risks to the Green Movement and his support of them.

Mohajerani recently started categorising and filtering the Green Movement into his version of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, which he called the “nationalists”, “non-nationalists”, and “anti-nationalist”. It looks like he is trying to act as a Guardian Council for the Movement.

Mohajerani has been criticised for this seemingly “disqualification” of some of the Green supporters. The main aim of the author in Rah-e Sabz seems to be support of  Mohajerani, trying to “illustrate” the neocon conspiracy and thus accuse some purported Green Movement supporters of being neocon stooges and anti-democracy in Iran.

The article also mentions the “nag ghazeh, na lobnan” (not Gaza, not Lebanon) slogan, referring to last September’s Qods Day chants by anti-regime protestors: “nag ghazeh, na lobnan – jaanam fadayeh iran” (“not Gaza, not Lebanon --- I give my life for Iran”). Referring to the regime’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas, the slogan declares forget Gaza and Lebanon and let’s fix Iran first.

A few weeks ago Mohsen Kadivar, who happens to be Mohajerani’s brother-in-law, said in an interview on Voice of America Persian that the protestors’ slogan on Qods Day was actually “ham ghazeh, ham lobnan –-- jaanam fadayeh iran” (“both Gaza and Lebanon –-- I give my life for Iran”). After he was criticized for saying this, given the video evidence, Kadivar  sent an email to VoA conceding that the “not, Gaza, not Lebanon” version of the slogan was shouted by people on that day but adding that he preferred the “both Gaza and Lebanon” version. Perhaps far from coincidentally, the author of the Rah-e Sabz article also has a go at Voice of America.

My main point? This article is another indication of the crisis with the Islamic Republic and different interpretations of its founding ideology:

On the regime side, there are management crises everywhere (power shortages, water shortages, Bazaar strikes, etc.) and Ahmadinejad getting into arguments with his supporters --- or should that be former supporters? --- about neckties. The Supreme Leader compares himself with the first Shia Imam and thinks he’s going to war in the 7th Century AD.

The reformists, faced with their own ideological shortcomings (which is inevitable, as they come from the same background as Ayatollah Khamenei and the rest of the regime), are finding them very difficult to resolve. So some of them (I must emphasise some of them, and not all of them) instead opt for disqualifying Green supporters and trying to change the meaning of slogans. Confronted over these tactics, they start lashing out at everyone and anyone. Welcome to “politics” Iranian style!

Mir Hossein Mousavi who is sitting in Iran and having to put up with the consequences of not giving in to Khameni/Ahmadinejad’s demands (consequences which include the assassination by “unknown persons” of Mousavi's nephew during the Ashura protests last December) says that the Green Movement does not have a leader and also that the Green Movement does not have a spokesperson overseas.

Maybe instead of attempting to speak on behalf of the movement, mimicking the Guardian Council by disqualifying some regime opponents, and distorting the declarations of people who risked their lives in the streets in Iran, Mr Mohajerani and his allies might contemplate their roles --- as senior regime officials not that long ago --- in the mess that the Islamic Republic has created in Iran today. Maybe, instead of making false accusations, based on half-baked arguments, they might think about what it is that they stand for?

Iran: Understanding the Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)

As we predicted in our first entry in our updates today, the international media are seeing "Iran" via the case of Shahram Amiri, the scientist who had come to the US --- willingly or unwillingly --- and is now back in Tehran.

My gratitude to the EA correspondent who found a cartoon that matches some information from my sources: Amiri had defected, had little or no valuable information, was depressed over his family back in Iran, and wanted to return.

In more effective words, the cartoon Amiri to the cartoon US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (from Khodnevis):  "I am your servant. I have a wife and children....Please be a lady and say you abducted me and wanted to bring disaster upon me."

The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1730 GMT: We have posted a separate entry which explains everything about the Shahram Amiri nuclear scientist defection/abduction case...in a single cartoon.

1720 GMT: Back to the Bazaar. Khabar Online maintains the impression that the conflict over the bazaars is far from over. The website post one item that the "Bazaari Guilds Council in crisis" and another that some vendors do not accept the wishes of their representatives --- presumably a reference to the claimed deal for a 15% tax increase --- and have even managed to cut off power in some parts of the Bazaar.

NEW Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
NEW Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

1718 GMT: You Know, Vacations Do Cost Money. Claim of the day in the Iranian media via a member of Parliament's National Security Commission: the extra two holidays this week, allegedly because of high temperatures, have meant a $4 billion loss to Iran's economy.

1715 GMT: Swallowing the Bazaar? The new website Green Correspondents posts an analysis asserting that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps are seeking to take over the bazaar, cutting off its "traditional relationships".

1415 GMT: Picture of the Day (Add Your Caption). The Supreme Leader before military officers on Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Day.



1400 GMT: Grounding Iran's Flights? After confirmation that BP has stopped supplying fuel air to Iran Air at Hamburg Airport in Germany, Mohammad Reza Rajabi, Iran Air's head in Hamburg, has admitted, "Finding a substitute for BP to provide Iranian passenger planes with fuel in Hamburg airport will take some time."

1335 GMT: Khabar Online's Punches of the Day. And now, courtesy of our friends at Khabar Online (did we mention that the website is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani?), the first of a regular feature on its jabs at President Ahmadinejad.

As the anniversary of the death in Kahrizak Prison of Mohsen Ruholamini approaches, the website features his father, Abdolhossein Ruholamini, a key advisor to former Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, who repeats his call for Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi to "be tried as promised and announced".

And, in the business section, it appears that 110 Mercedes vehicles for Ahmadinejad and the Foreign Ministry have been imported without paying the required taxes.

1035 GMT: Break Time. Apologies that updates are sporadic today, as I move between seminars and a plenary lecture this afternoon.

Thanks to all for keeping the news flowing.

1030 GMT: The Battle Within. A (relatively) gentler statement from key MP and Ahmadinejad critic Ali Motahhari: the relationship between govt and Majlis is critical --- if it is positive, it helps to overcome mistakes.

1025 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Khabar Online claims that extra holidays did not ease blackouts, with only a 10% reduction in consumption of electricity.

0820 GMT: Parliament (and a Cleric) v. President: MP Mohammad Ali Karimi comments, "Imam Khomeini believed that the parliament is at the heart of Islamic republic. But the government is not respecting the parliament’s approved laws." Karimi, referring to the President, asserted, "By dreaming we can not manage the country, let alone the world."

0810 GMT: Culture Corner. An EA correspondent checks in with the hot topic for chatter amongst young Iranians. Bazaar strike? Economic issues? The postponement of the President's trip to Lebanon?

No. It's this: "The Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has not granted a license to any Iranian expatriate pop singers living in Los Angeles, the culture minister said on Monday."

0800 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Lawmakers have lodged a motion for impeachment against Minister of Agriculture Sadeq Khalilian.

The specific grievance is dissatisfaction with excessive imports of food products. The broader allegation is Khalilian's lack of skill.

0625 GMT: We begin this morning with a bit of a diversion, noting in an analysis how the tangled covering post-election Iran turned EA into a US "neo-conservative" on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz.

Most of our colleagues in the international mainstream press begin with a bit of a diversion, devoting their attention to the return of scientist Shahram Amiri --- did he defect? was he kidnapped? --- from the US to Iran.

Meanwhile...

Tuesday's Top Quote

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbar comments on recent political and economic developments by noting the Supreme Leader's of this Iranian year as a "Year of Productivity": "Is this the year of extra work or extra holidays?"

Extra Holidays, Well, Strikes Actually

We had reported yesterday that the Tehran Bazaar was almost completely closed as the supposed deal between the Government and Bazaaris apparently fell through.

It appears that was also the case in Tabriz.

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)

And now a report which may or may not be significant in Iran's evolving political struggle.

Very significant.

Yesterday I noticed an item on the opposition site Green Voice of Freedom: "Grand Ayatollah Safi [Golpayegan] to Supreme Leader: 'You have lost your earthly life, and I am concerned about your heavenly life'".

Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II

If true, that would be about the coldest and most direct slap-down a senior cleric could give Ayatollah Khamenei. He stands accused of failing --- through miscalculation or ineptitude --- to uphold both religious and political responsibilities in leading the Iranian people, to the point where he may not even be worthy of Allah's forgiveness.

And there is no doubt, from GVF's summary, that this negligence is linked to the post-election crisis. The website adds that Golpayegani recently refused to meet the President when Ahmadinejad came to Qom.

Could the report be true? It claims "informed sources". Those sources are unnamed, and I have yet to find a corroborating report.

However, one EA correspondent notes, "I know many of the senior clerics have similar criticisms of Khamenei." Another writes, "As long as no official denial is published, you can be sure that it is true. Safi Golpayegani has a perfectly run website (mostly Mosque news), and his adepts would have posted it."

Then there is the possible connection to the wider story that EA posted this weekend, "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad". In that analysis, we wrote that the backing of senior clerics was essential if the planners --- Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, top MP Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei --- were to proceed. We added ,"No senior cleric has come out in public opposition."

Before posting the story, I asked a key EA source, "Which senior cleric would be most significant if he made a statement against the President?" The reply: "Safi".

Well, we now have a claim that "Safi" is pressing the Supreme Leader. It is too early to claim truth, yet alone assess impact, but this is potentially a big development for the "earthly life" of President Ahmadinejad as well as Ayatollah Khamenei.