Palestine Analysis: What is Ramallah's Strategy on Israel Talks? (Yenidunya)

Although some Palestinian Authority officials do not rule out the possibility of moving to direct talks as long as Israel give certain pledges regarding the agenda and the timetable, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat is not seeing eye-to-eye with them.

Speaking to the Turkish state television channel TRT on Tuesday, Erekat said:

Our option is a two-state solution. We have recognized the state of Israel and its right to exist on the 1967 borders. Now it's up to the international community to stand firm and recognize Palestine on the 1967 lines with Jerusalem as its capital.

Our position is that the key to direct negotiations is in the hand of Mr. Netanyahu. The minute he stops settlement activities including natural growth in Jerusalem, the minute he agrees to go to permanent status talks, where we left them in December 2008, we'll have direct talks.

The Israelis have a choice, settlements or peace. They can't have both.

Erekat also added that a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state is "not on the agenda".

In contrast, pointing to a possible consensus on the transfer of security in some West Bank cities to Palestinian forces as a confidence-building measure, Haaretz reports that Shin Bet security service head Yuval Diskin recently spent a day in the West Bank city of Jenin as a guest of Palestinian Authority counterparts.

Shin Bet chose not to respond to the report. Senior Palestinian officials, however, confirmed yesterday that Diskin had visited last week.

So, given that some Palestinian officials like Erekat are putting conditions on talks but others like Yasser Abed Rabbo are hinting at a possible deal to get to the negotiating table, what is Ramallah's strategy?

It had been reported, following President Obama's telephone call to the PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, that Abbas rejected direct talks before a settlement freeze in both the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. However, Haaretz adds this crucial paragraph:

According to knowledgeable sources in Ramallah, the day after meeting with Netanyahu, US President Barack Obama promised PA President Mahmoud Abbas that if, by this coming winter, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu doesn't place a reasonable map on the negotiating table, which includes the division of Jerusalem, Obama will place his own map on the table.

Thus, the answer to the Palestinian riddle tseems to lie in Washington.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: The Weight of the West Bank Settlements (Yenidunya)

According to The Jerusalem Post, President Obama will accept Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion of  ultimate Israeli control over major settlement blocs and an extension of the freeze in all areas outside these blocs in the West Bank. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has also reportedly proposed the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with a possible land swap of 2.3 percent of the West Bank, although this was denied by the chief negotiator Saeb Erekat.

Palestine & Israel: The Situation on the Eve of Obama-Netanyahu Talks

However, according to Haaretz, at least 2,700 new housing units are scheduled to be built in the West Bank as soon as the current settlement freeze ends this September. Regional councils  are preparing to continue constructions already authorized before the freeze decision.

It is not just the 2,700 housing units inside large settlement blocs that matter but the effect of these in negotiations. According to Israeli human rights group B'Tselem, the jurisdiction of councils over settlements covers 42 percent of the land area of the West Bank even though the the settlements take up just 1 percent of the West Bank’s land area.

Meanwhile, on Monday, The New York Times reported that an estimated $200 million in tax-exempt funds were donated to Jewish residents in the West Bank over the last decade, supporting the settlements. Washington does not allow Israel to spend US aid on West Bank settlements, but tax breaks are allowed on charitable donations to the area. Former US ambassador to Israel Daniel C. Kurtzer said the issue was politically delicate: “It drove us crazy, [but]it was a thing you didn’t talk about in polite company.”

Palestine & Israel: The Situation on the Eve of Obama-Netanyahu Talks

On the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has reportedly proposed the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with a possible land swap of 2.3 percent of the West Bank.

The PA would receive land of comparable size and quality in the southern West Bank as well as a corridor between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Abbas also reportedly proposed the easing of Palestinian demands over East Jerusalem to permit the Jewish Quarter of the Old City as well as the Western Wall to remain under Israeli sovereignty. The remainder of the Old City would become the capital of a Palestinian state but would be open to the adherents of all faiths.

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However, on Saturday, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat denied that Abbas had condoned these proposals. Dismissing reports of progress between the Palestinians and the Israelis, Erekat said that the American intention to upgrade current peace discussions to direct talks has been failing due to Israel's actions. He continued:

Israel refuses to give up the building in the settlements and to agree to renew the negotiations that were impeded by this stumbling block and, therefore, has failed in the intention to transform the proximity talks into direct contacts.

If Abbas was supporiting the reported offer, similar to the Camp David proposal of the Palestinian side in 2000, it matches Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's alleged suggestion to Obama, asking for the approval of the Israeli rule and the continuation of but limitation of construction in large settlements in the West Bank.

The Palestinian side and the Americans may realise that the current pressure on Israel to continue the freeze onn construction in the West Bank settlements is not sustainable as settlers' friction with Palestinians are increasing. Palestinians might be preparing for a soft turn if Washington approves.

However, the core issues are going to be the refugee problem and, especially, the status of Jerusalem. Palestinians are insistent on East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state and on rule over the Temple Mount while giving the authority of the Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall to the Israeli government. This is likely to be the key to a move to direct talks.

And Hamas? Well, the flotilla crisis is on hold now, since the international community gave consent to Israel's internal probe and West Jerusalem's officials are to announce the new and relatively limited blacklist of goods prohibited entry into Gaza. The Israeli government has successfully reduced the "problem" with Hamas to the status of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. If Washington steps back and the Palestinians pursue a practical solution, the process will continue without Hamas as long as it does not change its strategy.