Saturday
Jun132009
Iran's Election: Latest News
Saturday, June 13, 2009 at 23:02
NEW: Video of Protests in Tehran and Protests in Shiraz and Mashhad
Related Post: Iran's Election - Ten Indications That The Results Were Altered
Related Post: Iran’s Elections - Surprise and Uncertainty
Related Post: Iran’s Election - “Ahmadinejad Victory!”
2230 GMT: We're signing off until the morning. Thanks to everyone who sent us information today. To friends in Iran: our thoughts are with you.
2200 GMT: We have now posted the English translation of the letter released by Mir Hossein Mousavi to his supporters this afternoon.l
2145 GMT: In addition to the video of this afternoon's protests in Tehran, which we posted in this entry, we now have posted footage that the riots have spread this evening to the university in Shiraz and to the city of Mashhad..
2000 GMT: Juan Cole has posted a thoughtful analysis, "Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen", with re-construction of how the process might have unfolded. We have posted it in a separate entry.
1930 GMT: Mobile phone service was cut almost two hours ago. Many Iranians are now relying on the Internet for information, but there are concerns that this might be disrupted tomorrow. BBC Persian has now been blocked.
Some streets are still crowded with demonstrators shouting for Mousavi.
1740 GMT: President Ahmadinejad now addressing the nation. CNN has live feed. At times, CNN International television is going split-screen, putting Press TV's pictures Ahmadinejad address side-by-side with footage of demonstrations.
1735 GMT: A pro-Mousavi Twitter user suggests a way to access Facebook from Iran.
1715 GMT: An (unverified) story that we heard two hours ago is now circulating widely: Ministry of Interior officials called the Mousavi campaign to inform them of their candidate's victory. Mousavi was to write a victory speech, and a celebration was to be held Sunday (which, indeed, is what the Ahmadinejad campaign is now planning).
Shortly afterwards, however, the "information" was withdrawn without explanation.
1710 GMT: The correspondent for the American television network ABC reports that security forces have confiscated his crew's camera and videotapes. They are now shooting footage on cellphones.
1700 GMT: Facebook is blocked and SMS/texting systems are still out of service. Clashes continue between demonstrators and security forces around the Ministry of the Interior.
A correspondent notes that while the Supreme Leader has moved with unprecedented haste to endorse the election outcome (under Iranian law, the process is supposed to take at least three days), Iran's Guardian Council has not ratified the results nor has the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, congratulated Ahmadinejad.
There are reports that Mousavi, Karroubi, and former President Mohammad Khatami are gathering at the house of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
UPDATE 1640 GMT:A notable split is emerging in Western coverage between those who are ready to call the election rigged, such as Robert Dreyfuss in The Nation publishing the opinion of former Foreign Minister Ibrahim Yazdi on an Ahmadinejad "coup d'etat", and those who claim that Ahmadinejad's landslide should have been foreseen, such as Abbas Barzegar in The Guardian.
Mehdi Karrubi's campaign manager is providing updates via Twitter.
UPDATE: 1530 GMT: The Flickr stream of Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a number of photos of violent clashes between police and demonstrators in Tehran.
UPDATE: 1500 GMT: Government websites put Ahmadinejad's vote at 22 million and Mousavi's at 11 million.
Both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have said that this is "the beginning of events" and they will stand up "to the end". Attention now turns to the statement of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
There are reports of closing of streets near the Interior Ministry and detentions by military forces. Some people working in Tehran are afraid to return to their homes.
Press TV English, which had provided relatively open coverage of the election, is saying nothing about today's tension over the outcome.
There are reports of clashes around the Ministry of Interior between demonstrators, police, security forces, and Basiji (unofficial security units).
Military forces gather around the Ministry of the Interior
The official overseeing elections will shortly be speaking. More importantly, Mir Hossein Mousavi will be making a statement in the next few hours.
Pro-Mousavi correspondents from Tehran write of "a state of shock" at the outcome. One says simply, "Iran is mourning today."
UPDATE: 02.00 GMT: BBC reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has so far 66 percent of the vote. Officials say that almost 70 percent of votes has been counted.
18:00 GMT Iranian election officials are calling the voter turnout "unprecedented", with queues of up to three hours. Polling stations were kept open an extra three hours.
In Washington President Obama said that the choice of President was "up to the Iranian people" but added that he hoped for "possibilities of change". In a far from coded reference, he said that he hoped the Iranian outcome would follow the example set by Lebanon on Monday.
5pm GMT: Voting has been extended by three hours (to 9pm local time) due to the heavy turnout, according to the BBC.
1pm GMT: Turnout is very heavy throughout the country. An EA correspondent reports from north Tehran that there is an intensity and excitement in the public mood. Other correspondents report high expectations and hopes that there will be no "disruptions" in the count.
Government authorities are trying to damp down speculation of any altering of the result. The Intelligence Minister says that there have been no reports of electoral breaches while the head of the Parties' Desk declared that any reported misconduct would be dealt with swiftly. Amidst reports of 10 million phone texts being sent in recent days, the Telecommunications Ministry says it is investigating reports of disruption to SMS service.
Senior politicians and clerics are calling both for high turnout and fair conduct to hold up Iran as an example to the world. Candidate Mehdi Karroubi has called for tonight's decision to have the "respect of the nation".
Related Post: Iran's Election - Ten Indications That The Results Were Altered
Related Post: Iran’s Elections - Surprise and Uncertainty
Related Post: Iran’s Election - “Ahmadinejad Victory!”
2230 GMT: We're signing off until the morning. Thanks to everyone who sent us information today. To friends in Iran: our thoughts are with you.2200 GMT: We have now posted the English translation of the letter released by Mir Hossein Mousavi to his supporters this afternoon.l
2145 GMT: In addition to the video of this afternoon's protests in Tehran, which we posted in this entry, we now have posted footage that the riots have spread this evening to the university in Shiraz and to the city of Mashhad..
2000 GMT: Juan Cole has posted a thoughtful analysis, "Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen", with re-construction of how the process might have unfolded. We have posted it in a separate entry.
1930 GMT: Mobile phone service was cut almost two hours ago. Many Iranians are now relying on the Internet for information, but there are concerns that this might be disrupted tomorrow. BBC Persian has now been blocked.
Some streets are still crowded with demonstrators shouting for Mousavi.
1740 GMT: President Ahmadinejad now addressing the nation. CNN has live feed. At times, CNN International television is going split-screen, putting Press TV's pictures Ahmadinejad address side-by-side with footage of demonstrations.
1735 GMT: A pro-Mousavi Twitter user suggests a way to access Facebook from Iran.
1715 GMT: An (unverified) story that we heard two hours ago is now circulating widely: Ministry of Interior officials called the Mousavi campaign to inform them of their candidate's victory. Mousavi was to write a victory speech, and a celebration was to be held Sunday (which, indeed, is what the Ahmadinejad campaign is now planning).
Shortly afterwards, however, the "information" was withdrawn without explanation.
1710 GMT: The correspondent for the American television network ABC reports that security forces have confiscated his crew's camera and videotapes. They are now shooting footage on cellphones.
1700 GMT: Facebook is blocked and SMS/texting systems are still out of service. Clashes continue between demonstrators and security forces around the Ministry of the Interior.
A correspondent notes that while the Supreme Leader has moved with unprecedented haste to endorse the election outcome (under Iranian law, the process is supposed to take at least three days), Iran's Guardian Council has not ratified the results nor has the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, congratulated Ahmadinejad.
There are reports that Mousavi, Karroubi, and former President Mohammad Khatami are gathering at the house of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
UPDATE 1640 GMT:A notable split is emerging in Western coverage between those who are ready to call the election rigged, such as Robert Dreyfuss in The Nation publishing the opinion of former Foreign Minister Ibrahim Yazdi on an Ahmadinejad "coup d'etat", and those who claim that Ahmadinejad's landslide should have been foreseen, such as Abbas Barzegar in The Guardian.
Mehdi Karrubi's campaign manager is providing updates via Twitter.
UPDATE: 1530 GMT: The Flickr stream of Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a number of photos of violent clashes between police and demonstrators in Tehran.
UPDATE: 1500 GMT: Government websites put Ahmadinejad's vote at 22 million and Mousavi's at 11 million.
Both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have said that this is "the beginning of events" and they will stand up "to the end". Attention now turns to the statement of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
There are reports of closing of streets near the Interior Ministry and detentions by military forces. Some people working in Tehran are afraid to return to their homes.
Press TV English, which had provided relatively open coverage of the election, is saying nothing about today's tension over the outcome.
There are reports of clashes around the Ministry of Interior between demonstrators, police, security forces, and Basiji (unofficial security units).
Military forces gather around the Ministry of the InteriorUPDATE: 0830 GMT: To limit the possibility of demonstrations, universities are closed. There are military forces scattered throughout Tehran. Some websites, including the BBC English-language site, have been blocked.
The official overseeing elections will shortly be speaking. More importantly, Mir Hossein Mousavi will be making a statement in the next few hours.
Pro-Mousavi correspondents from Tehran write of "a state of shock" at the outcome. One says simply, "Iran is mourning today."
UPDATE: 02.00 GMT: BBC reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has so far 66 percent of the vote. Officials say that almost 70 percent of votes has been counted.
18:00 GMT Iranian election officials are calling the voter turnout "unprecedented", with queues of up to three hours. Polling stations were kept open an extra three hours.
In Washington President Obama said that the choice of President was "up to the Iranian people" but added that he hoped for "possibilities of change". In a far from coded reference, he said that he hoped the Iranian outcome would follow the example set by Lebanon on Monday.
5pm GMT: Voting has been extended by three hours (to 9pm local time) due to the heavy turnout, according to the BBC.
1pm GMT: Turnout is very heavy throughout the country. An EA correspondent reports from north Tehran that there is an intensity and excitement in the public mood. Other correspondents report high expectations and hopes that there will be no "disruptions" in the count.
Government authorities are trying to damp down speculation of any altering of the result. The Intelligence Minister says that there have been no reports of electoral breaches while the head of the Parties' Desk declared that any reported misconduct would be dealt with swiftly. Amidst reports of 10 million phone texts being sent in recent days, the Telecommunications Ministry says it is investigating reports of disruption to SMS service.
Senior politicians and clerics are calling both for high turnout and fair conduct to hold up Iran as an example to the world. Candidate Mehdi Karroubi has called for tonight's decision to have the "respect of the nation".
tagged ABC News, Abbas Barzegar, Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Khameini, BBC, BBC Persian, Flickr, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ibrahim Yazdi, Internet, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir-Hussein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohsen Rezaei, Robert Dreyfuss, Tehran, The Guardian, The Nation, demonstrations in Middle East & Iran
ABC News, Abbas Barzegar, Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Khameini, BBC, BBC Persian, Flickr, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ibrahim Yazdi, Internet, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir-Hussein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohsen Rezaei, Robert Dreyfuss, Tehran, The Guardian, The Nation, demonstrations in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (30)
10 million votes counted as I write, reports say that Ahmadinejad is leading with 68%.
The results may change because it is not clear yet to which parts of the country these votes belong.
The BBC is reporting that most of the votes counted have come from rural areas when Ahmadinejad is strongest.
This has not been confirmed by Iran's official media yet.
BBC just stopped reporting the updating results of the election because it says the results are complicated and may not be true! but at the same time they just announce that the counted votes are from the rural areas, I'm just curious what is their source for such news!
From contact in Iran...
Quoting Shahabeddin Tabatabaei's analysis on BBC Persian: The votes from smaller centres are being announced, AN should stop growing after 14 mln votes, around 40 mln votes cast, big cities results will come last. I personally see possibility of run-off as stop-gap between all these tensions...
I watched the program but my point is that they are only guessing, and they may be wrong.
I think you're probably right. However, there seems a basic logic to the results from the big cities being available last. It also seems fair to say that if the rural/small town vote is being counted first then it will favour A'jad.
In any case, neither side's claims of victory are in anyway valid at this stage.
yes and it is interesting that even before the counting started some of the candidates claimed victory, do they have relations with supermatural sources?!
A view from Iran..
IRINN reporting AN on 66% with 21 million votes counted, Mousavi lagging AN by around 8 million votes, this is completely uncorroborated by empirical observations from streets of Tehran. Still waiting for results of big cities to come in, but looking tough for Mousavi. Approx 11 million votes left to be called, gap appears to be too big...
BBC reporting state media as saying that 61% of vote counted with AN ahead by 66%. That means that there is approx 14 million votes to be counted. My crude maths makes that Mousavi needing at least 10.5 million of remaining vote (or 75%). Big ask...if these figures are correct.
It sounds like it's over. Surely Ahmadinejad has some support in Tehran so it's not just rural areas where he appears to be getting support. So much for the projections. I can't say that I saw much western coverage of the election campaign, but all of what I did see appeared to come out of Tehran. Perhaps that skewed perceptions.
Ahmadinejad has support amongst ideologically committed, poor, and working classes. Plenty of them in Tehran (he was of course a former Mayor).
Fair to say that these figures are totally at odds with what has been reported (inside and outside Iran). Firstly, this does indeed ask questions about how and why the perception of a much tighter race happened. More immediately, I think this could portend of serious unrest on the streets...I think people are seriously confused by these figures.
I'm still not 100% convinced by the figures myself...I can't see how they have arrived so quickly given the turnout. Perhaps I'm in denial.
Yes, I'm surprised the results are coming out so quickly as well. Where did the perception of the tighter race come from? Not from concrete public opinion polling, surely. Also, what's the history in Iran of incumbents running for re-election? How do they normally fare?
Has an incumbent Iranian president ever been defeated in an election? I had a quick look and I couldn't find an example.
Perceptions came from the energy of the Mousavi campaign, the huge visibility of his supporters and, to a lesser but not insignificant extent, opinion polls. I don't think it was related to any external projection. Indeed, it was reported that the Supreme Leader had commissioned his own poll- of just 5000 people- but still showing a 60% lead for Mousavi. Interestingly, I have seen nothing on how many Karroubi or Rezae got....no idea how much anti-A'jad vote split.
Re your second question- no. First one was impeached and second one assassinated, but all others have served two terms thus far.
and some previous Iranian elections have been notoriously difficult to predict with major surprises.
but how is polling done in Iran. I heard (possibly from you) that polls have a reputation for unreliability.
I don't think the visibility of one's supporters necessarily translates into electoral projections. Democrats were pumped up in 2004 because of the war and Kerry had youth and energy behind them (remember the rock concert tours to get young voters out). But Bush still won.
I think polls are just harder to conduct, methodologically flawed, sometimes political motivated or just plain unrepresentative (e.g polling uni students or just people in Tehran). They got it wrong last election as well.
For example, three polls came out from Fars news on the same day (June 10)
They put Mousavi on 25, 33 and 43%. The next day, Aftab put M on 50% and A on 35%. Pretty random...
I think the major surprise is the turn out- which usually favours a challenger. Khatami won in 1997 with almost 80% (compared to 50% the time before).
This means that a lot of reactionary people turned out this year for A'd.
I still don't buy these figures..I'm still in denial!
Mohsen Rezaei and Mehdi Karroubi, have surprisingly only gained less than 2 and 1 per cent respectively.
Maybe his policies played well with working-class and poor people and they turned out. I don't want to push the analogy too far, but remember in 2004 the youth vote came out for Kerry but it was matched by an increase in evangelicals for Bush.
My fear is that many (in US) will interpret this as
a) Electoral robbery
b) A sumary rejection of Obama's overture
c) A summary rejection of political reform
In fact, IF A wins it could me more the fact that he ran a good anti-elitist campaign based on economic populism. Looks like his attacks on Rafsanjani (the richest man in Iran), far from being a mistake as I felt, worked a treat once again. Politics of association once again...
This makes Obama's efforts to sell normalisation and resist Israeli/AIPAC pressure on Iran policy much harder.
I personally think Kerry ran a poor campaign- all that veteran crap didn't work because ultimately he did not (and could not) oppose the Iraq war and he should have concentrated on domestic issues. Also, just not a very likeable or charasmatic chap (which some felt was Mousavi's problem).
Going to bed hoping for a miracle...
1 word: crap.
2 words: stolen election.
3 words: in broad daylight.
4 words: beginning of the end.
5 words: you heard it hear first.
I assume part of the reason why people thought that the race would be much tighter was in relation to A'jads bad handling of the economy that would have more impact on damaging his vote with poor/rural voters than any critiques regarding international reputation that may have played more with middle class/urban. Also many people saw his final tirade of accusations regarding Israeli co-operation with his opposition candidates as a small sign of desperation.
there's good coverage here on the Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html There's a rumour that Mousavi is under house arrest
Hi, I'm trying to access your blog's video broadcasts and they do not appear on my screen at all. I have ADSL internet access so it can't be a matter of internet speed.
I'm really relying on you guys right now cause your one of the few websites that have video coverage of this situation and it is not still filtered by Iranian goverment.
appreciate all the effort,
Kia