The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign in Babolsar has been arrested.

2000 GMT: A Friendly Notice. To all journalists riding the two-dimensional bandwagon on Twitter & Iran, treating cliches like "Twitter Revolution" as if they were the core of meaningful analysis, I'm not going to respond for the moment --- this is a made-up dramatic revelation, which recurs every few months and does not get to the heart of what social media has meant in the post-election crisis. Best to let it serve as tomorrow's chip paper.

But if you keep it up, I may change my mind....

1900 GMT: Mahmoud Snaps Back. President Ahmadinejad, who has had post-election encounters with dust (read his "victory speech") and insects (see video), worked both into his response to the UN sanctions resolution: "These (U.N.) resolutions have no value...They are like a used handkerchief that should be thrown in the dust bin. Sanctions are falling on us from the left and the right. For us they are the same as pesky flies....We have patience and we will endure throughout all of this."

NEW Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions...and Rights (9 June)
NEW Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
NEW Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

1855 GMT: Back to 22 Khordaad. BBC Persian reports on the increased security presence on the streets of Tehran on the eve of 12 June,the anniversary of the election.


1725 GMT: President Obama has just made a statement about Iran in the aftermath of the UN vote on sanctions. We've posted the video.

Here's the quick read: Obama proclaimed that the sanctions were the "most comprehensive" Iran has faced, said that the UN resolution sent an "unmistakeable message", and spent most of the rest of the time justifying the position on sanctions in connection with his policy of "engagement": "We recognize Iran's rights, but with those rights come responsibilities. Time and again the Iranian Government has failed to meet those responsibilities."

Then, in one of the eight minutes of the statement, having declared,"These sanctions are not directed at the Iranian people," Obama switched from nukes to rights. He noted this Saturday's anniversary of the election, "an event that should have been remembered for how the Iranian people participated with remarkable enthusiasm but will instead be remembered for how the Iranian Government brutally suppressed dissent and murdered the innocent, including a young woman [Neda Agha Soltan] left to die in the street".

It was a bit awkward for the President to link back to uranium and sanctions, and he did not help by throwing in the spectre of Tehran's War of Terror --- "Actions do have consequences. And today the Iranian Government will face some of those consequences. Because whether it is threatening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime or the rights of its own citizens or the stability of its own neighbors by supporting terrorism, the Iranian Government continues to demonstrate that its unjust actions are a threat to justice everywhere".

However, at least for one moment, "Iran" was seen in more than the one-dimensional image of a nuclear weapon.

1720 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has released a letter which, in the eyes of Deutsche Welle, criticises the Supreme Leader's silence over President Ahmadinejad and implicitly acknowledges fraud in the 2009 election.

1620 GMT: Sanctions. The UN Security Council has voted 12-2, with 1 abstention, for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The relatively limited measures include restrictions on transactions with Iranian banks, asset freezes on Iranian individuals and companies, and an expanded arms embargo on items such as attack helicopters and missiles.

Turkey and Brazil, who recently signed an agreement with Iran on procedure for talks over uranium enrichment, were the two countries who voted against the resolution. Lebanon abstained.

1605 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Al Arabiya has just published an interview from May with Mehdi Karroubi. Topics covered include the rise of the Green Movement, party politics, accusations of prison abuse and torture, Government mismanagement, and Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. Karroubi also offered this in anticipation of 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election:

We promise and give assurances that no incident will occur. I am certain that if a march is held, paramilitary forces will attempt to turn it violent, but our people are wise, and politically mature enough that even if certain individuals come chanting radical slogans, the people have the ability to control the scenario and confront them. However, if authorisation is not granted for demonstrations, we will then decide what to do; but it is currently not possible to say much.

1545 GMT: On the International Front (Mahmoud Stays Home). On Monday, Iranian state media were trumpeting that their internationally-esteemed President would be showing his strength, in the face of Western pressure, by going to the Shanghai Expo in China.

Today, Agence France Presse says that Ahmadinejad plans to stay away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to snub Russia and China for supporting the US-backed sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International has launched a new campaign, "One Year On: Stop Unfair Trials". Cases include journalists Abolfazl Abedini Nasr, Hengameh Shahidi, Emaduddin Baghi, Shiva Nazar Ahari and Ahmad Zeidabadi, student activists Majid Tavakoli and Mohammad Amin Valian, and Zia Nabavi of the Council to Defend the Right to Education.

1015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. A piece of news that slipped under the media radar....

The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced that it has received replies from France, Russia, and the US to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on procedure for uranium enrichment talks.

No details were given beyond the note, "Attached to each of the letters was an identical paper entitled ‘Concerns about the Joint Declaration Conveyed by Iran to the IAEA’."

That, however, indicates co-ordination between the three governments. And the timing of the IAEA's statement, together with the lack of substance, indicates that it is happy to let the news be overtaken by today's sanctions vote in the UN.

0955 GMT: Reflecting on The Year. Journalist Masih Alinejad has offered her recollections and analysis in an extended video interview with Voice of America Persian.

0935 GMT: A Signal for the Week? Hamshahri features the colourful cover identifying the bad guys in "Sedition '88".

0930 GMT: Intimidation of Kurdistan Businesses? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that, following a general strike on 9 May to protest executions, members of bazaars across Kurdistan have been summoned and threatened by government authorities and the businesses of others have been sealed.

0800 GMT: What is the Green Movement? An interesting interview with Fatemeh Sadeghi, a former professor at Tehran University, who argues that the Green Movement is not the opposition of the "secular" against the "religious".

0750 GMT: The Post-Election Abuses. Abdul Ruholamini has resurfaced to declare that those responsible for the abuse and killing of detainees in Kahrizak Prison must "pay for their deeds".

Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, is the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in Kahrizak last summer. The case was instrumental in bringing the abuses to light and pressing the Supreme Leader to close Kahrizak. Ruholamini had gone farther in public statements at the start of 2010, declaring that high-ranking officials must take responsibility for the crimes, but had been silent in recent months.

Ruholamini may have been prompted to his statement by the news that the trial of 12 people over the Kahrizak case has finished behind closed doors.

0745 GMT: The Events of 4 June. Another perspective, complementing that of EA's Mr Verde, on last Friday's developments at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini comes from Hamid Farokhnia in Tehran Bureau.

Tehran Bureau also features a review by Muhammad Sahimi, "The Green Movement at One Year".

0740 GMT: Parliament v. President (and Supreme Leader). It seems that Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention --- calling for Parliament-Ahmadinejad co-operation and threatening the Majlis with new "oversight" --- may not have been an overwhelming success.

Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli, an ally of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, has commented in Khabar Online that the Constitution is written for people to cooperate, not to fight. So far, so good for the Supreme Leader.

But then Tavakoli re-asserts, "The Government has no right not to implement the laws from the Majlis."

0715 GMT: On a day when "Iran news", for most non-Iranian media, may be dominated by the passage of the US-led sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council, we set out priorities with two analyses: Scott Lucas declares, "What's Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions), and Mr Verde looks at "4 June: A Day the Regime Will Regret".

One US outlet shares our attention to the internal: Newsweek notes last Friday's events, with the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, under the (over-blown) headline, "Iran's Hushed-Up Civil War":

For his part, Supreme Leader Khamenei did little damage control, even though he has worked hard to present a united front for Iran’s leadership, knowing that discord suggests vulnerability. He took the stage after Khomeini and asked the crowd to act in a more appropriate manner. But that was it. No defense of Khomeini and no rebuke to the crowd. With the anniversary of the contested election just days away now, Khamenei has been trying to manage a delicate balancing act between quieting and frightening the opposition—and sending mixed messages in the process.

In another warm-up for 12 June, the anniversary of the election, Zahra Rahnavard gives an interview to the Italian paper La Republicca. Beyond general criticism of the Government and the declaration, "I hope to shed the last drop of my blood in the cause of freedom and democracy," she focuses on key issues:

The demands of the women in Iran are twofold: 1) National demands such as freedom, democracy, the rule of the law, freedom of political prisoners, right to individual freedoms; 2) Elimination of discrimination and strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights and equal rights under the law.

....Democracy is not possible without women and without paying attention to the demands of women.

Comments

[Arshama]

Fine cartoon about Greenies, Obama's (West's) promises and a crocodile named IR: http://www.peykeiran.com/userfiles/image/1_Caricator/Caricator_6/F_caricator_6_7_1.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://www.peykeiran.com/userfiles/image/1_Cari...

[WitteKr]

"Shakourirad: Interior Ministry knows massive crowds will take to streets." (From the Facebook page linked to Mir Hussein Mousavi.)
Shakourirad is a representative of reformist parties making the request to Interior Ministry for permit to hold demonstration on June 12th. Permission has still not been granted, but "Their response so far has of course been more positive than in the past. However, the recent objections are new and unprecedented. Such hurdles were never presented for any other protests that have taken place to date."
"Q: Given the propaganda by the ruling government during the past year that the opposition is weakening do you believe there is a possibility that a permit will be issued?"
A: "If they truly believed such a thing, they would deal with us much more leniently as such I am sure that they do not make such assumptions. In fact they themselves [the Ministry of Intelligence] believe that a large number of people will come to the streets. For this reason they have refused to issue a permit to date, and if at all, they will probably wait until the last minute to do so. We believe that the same thing will happen again as it did last year on the 25th of Khordad, when people quickly realized what was happening and came to the streets. Even if the numbers are not as large as last year, we will have not lost anything."
http://www.facebook.com/mousavi?ref=ts#%21/notes/mir-hossein-mousavi-myr-hsyn-mwswy/shkwry-radwzart-kshwr-my-dandjmyt-zyady-bh-khyaban-my-aydshakouriradinterior-min/398690342605" rel="nofollow">http://www.facebook.com/mousavi?ref=ts#!/notes/...

[Catherine]

RE 015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. A piece of news that slipped under the media radar….

Something else not widely reported is the contents of President Obama's letter of 20 April to President Lula of Brazil including, amongst other things, the compromise Obama offered Iran though the IAEA in November and his encouragement of Brazil to reiterate that comprise to Iran. The entire letter is interesting to read, but here are imo the key paragraphs (last 3 long ones). The letter seems to communicate a blueprint of what Obama wants (and which the joint declaration by Iran, Turkey and Brazil to the IAEA in May also contains) as well as the implication that might be too late anyway.

Source = Brazil's Foreign Ministry
http://www.politicaexterna.com/archives/11023#axzz0qM71Pu8Y" rel="nofollow">http://www.politicaexterna.com/archives/11023#a...

Scroll down under scanned White House letter to read a text version

His Excellency
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
President of the Federative Republic of Brazil
Brasilia
Dear Mr. President:
...........

We understand from you, Turkey and others that Iran continues to propose that Iran wouId retain its LEU on its territory until there is a simultaneous exchange of its LEU for nuclear fuel. As General Jones noted during our meeting, it will require one year for any amount of nuclear fuel to be produced. Thus, the confidence-building strength of the IAEA’s proposal would be completely eliminated for the United States and several risks would emerge. First, Iran would be able to continue to stockpile LEU throughout this time, which wouId enable them to acquire an LEU stockpile equivalent to the amount needed for two or three nuclear weapons in a year’ s time. Second, there would be no guarantee that Iran would uItimately agree to the final exchange. Third, IAEA "custody" of lran’s LEU inside of Iran would provide us no measurable improvement over the current situation, and the IAEA cannot prevent Iran from re-assuming control of its uranium at any time.

There is a potentially important compromise that has already been offered. Last November, the IAEA conveyed to Iran our offer to allow Iran to ship its 1,200 kg of LEU to a third country — specifically Turkey·- at the outset of the process·to be held "in escrow" as a guarantee during the fuel production process that Iran would get back its uranium if we failed to deliver the fuel. Iran has never pursued the "escrow" compromise and has provided no credible explanation for its rejection. I believe that this raises real questions about Iran’s nuclear intentions, if Iran is unwilling to accept an offer to demonstrate that its LEU is for peaceful, civilian purposes. I wouId urge Brazil to impress upon Iran the opportunity presented by this offer to "escrow" its uranium in Turkey while the nuclear fuel is being produced.

Throughout this process, instead of building confidence Iran has undermined confidence in the way it has approached this opportunity. That is why I question whether Iran is prepared to engage Brazil in good faith, and why I cautioned you during our meeting. To begin a constructive diplomatic process, Iran has to convey to the IAEA a constructive commitrnent to engagement through official channels — something it has failed to do. Meanwhile, we will pursue sanctions on the timeline that I have outlined. I have also made clear that I will leave the door open to engagement with Iran. As you know, Iran has thus far failed to accept my offer of comprehensive and unconditional dialogue.

[WitteKr]

RE 1015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. More details are surfacing. US Ambassador to the IAEA Glyn Davies outlined in Vienna some of the concerns about the fuel supply deal struck between Iran, Brazil and Turkey on May 17.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100609/pl_afp/iaeanuclearpoliticsiranfuel_20100609142747" rel="nofollow">http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100609/pl_afp/iae...

[Arshama]

22 Khordad Rally Permission Watch

Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, political deputy of interior ministry, describes the application for a rally permission as a joke, because according to article 27 of the Constitution, rallies don't need a permit, if unarmed, non-violent and not against the principles of Islam. BUT the decision about the latter is with the Commission Art. 10 of political parties. He then continues that any application must be handed out a week prior to the event, i.e. it's too late guys, no chance to get a permission! http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-67816.aspx" rel="nofollow">http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-67816.aspx

Reminds me of an Iranian author, who once wrote: we don't have the wrong government, but the wrong people ;-)

[Dissected News]

I hate bugs. Especially HUGE flying ones. Having seen that video, I've changed my tune.

Bomb Iran.

But in all seriousness, folks, Obama has elected to "kick ass" over Iran's nuclear promises and Iran's persecution of the people of Iran. Interesting enough, Obama did say that he doesn't expect results overnight, and he wants to move towards diplomacy. This is still a very different response than Bush's.

It is also interesting that Obama ENDS the speech by drawing a direct line between the crackdown on Iranian civilians and the consequences of the IRI's bad choices, sanctions.

These aren't the oil sanctions called for by Bush and congress. If Obama is going to pass sanctions, these were the ones we wanted him to pass. I agree with Scott that, at least for a minute, the rhetoric was focused on the potential of Iran's people instead of the perils of its nuclear program. And I think that this is significant.

We don't see most of what Obama is doing here, and I don't agree with all of his moves, but I have to say that I believe he is working on this behind the scenes, and that may be all we can ask right now.

Besides, the giant flying bugs are the real threat in Iran anyhow.

[Dissected News]

Hi Bozorg, Last time I spoke with Scott (few hours ago) that video, nor the transcript, were available yet.

Not sure what that tells us, but there you have it.

[ScottLucas11]

Bozorg,

It's really strange. Nothing has surfaced.

There is a new Karroubi statement, via Rooz Online, which we'll post as a feature on Thursday morning.

S.

[Nursing – The Profession]

[...] The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention | Enduring America [...]

[DCl6]

Haven't they always said that a permit is required? Why would he come out and say that if they're unarmed, a permit is not required.

These people are so hypocritical that it's hard to consider anything they do with a straight eye. Of course, we already expect this from these idiots.

[Kurt]

I agree. I'm still disappointed in the same old same old line that has transcended administrations, but even so, there are still differences. I don't want to perpetuate the nine dimensional chess meme, but I would say it's safe to say, there are things we don't see. Like you say though, that doesn't mean I still don't bang my head on the desk over the proposed Brazil Iran deal... (I think Gary Sick was most dead-on here).

But yes, at least Obama is bearing witness. That's a far cry from what many of us would like to see, but, it's something.