Iran: EA's Coverage of 22 Khordaad/12 June Election Anniversary

We'll be live from 0600 GMT (9:30 a.m. in Tehran) with latest news and analysis of all the political developments on the streets and behind the scenes. Scott Lucas will anchor coverage, with correspondents contributing from positions in Europe, the US, and Iran.

Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi speak at their press conference at the start of this week, before their withdrawal of the request to march on 12 June. A transcript in Persian is available on Karroubi's website, Saham News.

Any assistance from readers in summarising key points would be appreciated:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqozbnK6Cx0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."

Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement

Even now, 18 hours after the news emerged, there is still a sense of confusion over the statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they were withdrawing their request for a permit to march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election.

As the news circulated, some reacted with disbelief, some with anger, some with resignation, and some with the assurance that this was the best course of action or even part of a wider scheme. Above all, however, there was this question: so what happens tomorrow,  on 22 Khordaad?

Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 12 June Protest (10 June)

Strangely, given that we are less than 24 hours from that occasion, my belief is that it's too early to tell, certainly to put up an analysis. I say that for two reasons.

First, there are curiosities in the chain of events. On one level, the Mousavi and Karroubi decision is straightforward: they made their approach to the Ministry of Interior, the Iranian authorities are stalling until the last minute before making a likely denial, the possibility that many people may be hurt if they turn out in the face of a heavy security presence makes a demonstration problematic.

Yet there are still gaps: given that Mousavi and Karroubi have referred for weeks to "other ways" of pressing opposition even if the permit was not granted, what is the Plan B? Is there really no suggestion beyond a general reference to  "the path of the people" before 22 Khordaad comes and goes?

Which --- perhaps as a diversion --- takes me back to an event at the start of the week. Mousavi and Karroubi, we were told, held a press conference in front of representatives of about a dozen reformist and Green media outlets. A photo of the two men was released, and further details were promised.

We looked on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. We searched for transcripts, video clips, even a summary of what was said. Nothing.

And so --- before possibly going too far off the track or too deep into what should remain unexamined for the moment --- what was discussed at that press conference?

The second and more important mystery beyond yesterday: opposition and the Green Movement are not just Mousavi and Karroubi. Indeed, in line both with their wishes and with the sentiments of many others, I do not refer to them as "leaders" of the opposition. They are important figures, but they are not the sole guardians of the challenge to the Iranian Government.

So today I watch for others: the reformist parties, the students, the women's movement, the labour movement, the human rights activists, those far-from-common people who are still making up their minds over how public or how private their concern, anger, and hope should be.

That watching, I think, should take precedence over any projection --- certainly any conclusion (and I have read many ill-informed conclusions in the last 48 hours) --- of what has or will happen in Iran. On 22 Khordaad, the day after, and far beyond.

Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)

Update: This piece was published on the Huffington Post, titled : "The Green Movement in Iran is Alive, and Important."I added a final closing line for the occasion.

Since then, it has been published in a book, "Current Controversies: The Iranian Green Movement, Greenhaven Press."

---

On June 12, 2009, Iran's now infamous elections were held and hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad allegedly won with 62% of the vote. What resulted was a momentous period of time where Iranian dissidents voiced their opposition to the results and to the government itself, against all odds and at great personal risk.

On June 7th, 2010, Foreign Policy Magazine published an eight part series called "Misreading Tehran: Leading Iranian-American writers revisit a year of dreams and discouragement." It was written by mainstream journalists criticizing what were common assertions made by the media during the post election events: that Twitter was leading a "Revolution," that the regime was about to collapse, that the Green Movement would change everything by using technology to democratize democracy, and that Westerners could sit in their offices and homes and make a difference, 140 characters at a time. None of these things, according to some critics, were true. And so the conclusion must be that the Green Movement disappeared or has become insignificant since last summer. Technology (Twitter, social networking, New Media, ect.) , therefore, cannot really democratize a revolution. According to the media, all of the promise of post-election Iran has been lost.

But the critics saying these things, mainstream journalists, are really commenting on how in 2009 mainstream journalism, for a brief moment, attempted to copy, catch up with, and comment on New Media sources, such as Twitter, Facebook, Youtube, and many blogs that were accomplishing what the old media could not. And in this rush to catch up,  the media got it wrong. While many of these writers have very critical things to say about the New Media's role in these events, they are really criticizing their previous belief systems surrounding the New Media and the Green Movement.

They neither understood then, nor understand now, the true significance of the so-called and misnamed"Twitter Revolution," or the grander significance of the Green Movement, or the real story in Iran.

Revolutions are not won in a day. The American Revolution was the product of over 100 years of philosophical thought, and several decades of discontent (the Stamp Act was passed in 1764, and by 1765 Patrick Henry was already a famous speaker), followed by several years of open rebellion and acts of defiance (Boston massacre in 1770, Boston Tea Party in 1773), and at least a year of open warfare (from Lexington Green to Breed's/Bunker Hill), all before the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the opening chapter to a formal war that lasted more than ten years.  The "in-between" times were marked by backroom leadership, dinner table debate, church pulpit protests... democracy in an incubator. The idea that the Green Movement would be successful in a few short months is ridiculous, the product of the unbelievable promise and inspiring courage of the Iranian protesters crashing headlong into the ability for technology to spread the echoes of their "shot heard round the world" in an instant. Looking back, these hopes were naive, and the condemnation of their disappointment profoundly arrogant.

Dr. Scott Lucas, a former adjunct professor at an Iranian university and Professor of American Studies at the University of Birmingham (England), sums it up succinctly:

Prize fights are settled within 15 rounds of 3 minutes each; the quest for civil rights is not. The election, after all, was just the public apex of a larger, ongoing climb for political, economic, and social recognition, respect, and justice. The Green Movement, as significant as it would become, did not displace the movements for women’s rights, student rights, labour rights, legal rights, economic rights, religious rights, and the rights of Iran’s many ethnic groups. (Indeed, one of the ongoing, “deeper” issues of this past year has been how the Green Movement — if it is more than a symbolic entity — interacts with the activism of these other movements.)

This post-election contest, which rested upon years of discussion and challenge within the Islamic Republic, was always destined to be a marathon and not a sprint.

Twitter wasn't the story last June, and it certainly isn't today. Twitter was always a tool for getting news out more than it was for getting news in (though its ability to get news to supporters on the streets has also been dismissed too easily). But the REAL story is that for the last year a fledgling democratic movement has moved from the shadows, where it has been hunted for decades, and into the limelight. And then back out of it, which also doesn't matter. The movement has matured and grown, even though (like anything in an incubator) it has often struggled and foundered.

And what are the results of the struggle of the opposition movement in Iran? Not failure. Externally, the movement has inspired Hillary Clinton (with the direction of some of the State Department's staffers, and perhaps our letters to them), America's Foreign Policy has evolved from the false dichotomy of "invade or ignore (Bush)" to one of fostering developing democratic movements through the use of technology and a "Three Cups of Tea" outreach process to people in Iran, Sudan, Cuba, Venezuela, China, and beyond.  This process will take a while, but internally, as a direct result of the Green Movement, the regime is getting weaker. There are now serious divides inside the Iranian regime.  As unemployment mounts, inflation rises, the problems mentioned above go unresolved, and as the internet outreach of those who still care about the Green Movement continues, the future of Iran may be a successful revolution.

The most painful part of the media's quick dismissal of the opposition to the Ahmadinejad/Khamenei regime is this; Those of us who follow Iran, who have contacts within Iran, and who spend hours a day following the news there, know that the movement is actually gaining ground. We see signs that the regime is showing cracks in its armor. But we also see the bravery and sacrifice of the Iranians dissidents, men and women whose names never make it to the media.

Men like Farzad Kamangar, "a 34-year-old teacher and social worker, who was charged with Moharebeh (taking up arms against God), convicted and sentenced to death in February 2008, after a seven-minute long trial in which 'zero evidence' was presented." Then there are men like journalist and human rights defender Emadeddin Baghi, who has been arrested and is lavishing in poor health in Evin prison for daring to report the brutal crackdown of a ruthless dictator.

That doesn't include the (at least) 48 protesters who died in the streets, and the four more who were tortured and killed in prison, for speaking their voice of discontent. It doesn't include the 388 who were executed last year, or the 34 protesters who have been sentenced to death for speaking against  their government, or the 17 Kurds charged with "moharebeh" and tortured to confess,  just because they are vocal leaders of a hated minority.

Or Neda.

But the blood on the street means something. It means that the regime is sometimes forced into backing down. It means that some clerics are no longer afraid to question the authority of their government.

This is the real tragedy of the media coverage of Iran. Not only did they misrepresent the boat, and then miss the boat, but they missed the significance and importance of the boat. What we are talking about in Iran is a movement that could bring peace between Israel and Iran, unsanctioned trade between Iran and the rest of the world, and the replacement of one of our greatest enemies with a potentially great friend, without a single bullet being fired by the United States. Not only that, but the success of the Green Movement would be the first step in the victory against human rights abuses everywhere, abuses which stifle the democratic process and thus deny the rest of the world the next generation of peaceful neighbors.

By demonizing Iran for its nuclear program, the media has created a bugbear that has encouraged the warmongers and distorted the truth in the Middle East. These same pressures have forced Obama to risk destroying with his feet what he has built with his hands. The coverage of the Green Movement in Iran was a chance to break that narrative, and by having to retract a reckless, sexy story about social media, the news agencies have now reverted to their radioactive news cycle by dismissing the best hope for change in the region, and beyond.

Human rights violations have hampered democracy in Iran, and with it the best chance for hope and change in the Middle East. The media wants to dismiss this, because long and complicated stories don't sell. War sells. Nukes sell. But I'm not buying.

The success of the democratic movement in Iran cannot be measured in Tweets, in newspaper stories, in rallies attended (or not attended) by reformists, or even in protesters. It must be counted in the desire for freedom and peace. As such, the strength of the Green Movement in Iran is countless, and growing.