Shanghai Power Politics: China Shuts Out Iran (Shan Shan)

Two weeks ago, the 10th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council summit, held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, approved the SCO Rules of Procedure and the regulation on procedure for future membership expansion.

Before the summit, Chinese diplomats ritually pointed out that approval of the admission regulations was the first step in forming the basis for a future expansion of SCO membership and would serve as a cornerstone of the organization's rules for external links.

Behind this formality, however, was a more significant story: for now, Iran will not allowed to  join the organisation.

The ostensible reason was that the SCO's regulations proscribe that “any country under UN sanctions cannot be admitted”. At the time of the meeting, Iran was subject to a 4th round of restrictions; a few days after the meeting, the UN Security Council passed yet another resolution.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not attend the summit, although he visited the Shanghai Expo and took part in celebrations at the Iranian pavilion on June 11. The Chinese Foreign Ministry maintained that Ahmadinejad was only visiting the country to attend the Expo, but analysts said he “is here to seek more support from China to water down fresh sanctions”.

The rejection of Iran's membership is far from the entire story, of course. The relationship between China and Iran is still stable. "There is no reason to control or weaken the relationship (with China)”,  Ahmadinejad told a news conference after his visit to the Expo.
Moreover, this summit focused on economic cooperation and security issues in Central Asia, especially in Afghanistan, such as drug trafficking, terrorism ,and organized crime. Besides, the unrest in in Kyrgyzstan is another hot issue at this summit.

The fact remains, however, that Iran was kept at arm's distance. Zhang Xiao, deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry's department of European and Central Asian affairs, indicated that the SCO is only considering the legal basis for expanding membership, indicating that there is a long way to go before formal accession will even be contemplated.

Furthermore, Beijing is more cautious than Russia, the other main power of the SCO. According to China Daily, Chinese President Hu Jintao told his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev that SCO cooperation and exchange with outside countries should be done in a proper and stable manner, and on the basis of improving the strength of the bloc. "Blind expansion will spoil it (SCO) with excessive enthusiasm".

Pang Zhongying, a senior expert on world politics at Renmin University of China, assessed, "For a regional bloc, it is definitely not the more the better. Now the European Union has 27 members, and we can see more complex problems. The same reason also resulted in a loose APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum). One of the approaches to ruin a bloc is encouraging it to admit more members."

Add the complicated situation in central Asia and the main concerns of the SCO, and it appears that Iran will be observing the group from outside for some time to come.

The Latest from Iran (26 June): Absolute Security?

1745 GMT: More on the Khomeini Challenge. Earlier we noted growing concern within the Iranian establishment over the influence of "radicals" (1235 GMT).

Radio Zamaneh has more on that concern through the remarks of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, as he spoke to families of victims of a 1981 bombing.

Khomeini said “extremism” must be abandoned and “extremists” must be "churned away" from the Islamic Republic.

Noting the growing economic problems in Iran, which has "disheartened" its people, Khomeini said Iranians want their officials to get over “personal vendettas” and “childish grudges” and instead try to resolve the country’s problems.

NEW Iran Document & Analysis: US Gov’t Statement on Sanctions, Nukes, & Human Rights
NEW Iran: Summary of the New US Sanctions
NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “The Green Movement and Mousavi”
The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran’s Defenders (Shahryar)
The Latest from Iran (25 June): The Important Issues

1640 GMT: Another Execution? Six weeks after five Iranians were hung, concerns have escalated over Zainab Jalalian and Hossein Khezri, who are reportedly at risk of imminent execution.

The death sentence for Jalalian, convicted of mohareb ("war against God") because of her membership in the separatist Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), was upheld and sent to the enforcement section today. Zainab's plea to say goodbye to her family was met with, "shut up" by the sentencing judge, and she was condemned to death by hanging. As Zainab was not permitted legal representation,

Amnesty International has issued an Urgent Action Alert for Zainab Jalalian and Hossein Khezri, who are believed to be at risk of imminent execution. We have assembled a sample letter you can send to Iranian authorities regarding these two cases.

1230 GMT: Taking on the "Radicals"? After a week of clear escalation in conflict --- not between the "Greens" and the regime but within the establshment --- the Iranian political scene is filled with warnings of "radical" behaviour threatening the Islamic Republic.

Khabar Online features an analysis declaring that conservatives and principlists "will pay for" the actions of the radicals. radicals' move, historical review pointing at this radical current since the IR establishment

Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Vice Speaker of Parliament, http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdcjivevmuqeyhz.fsfu.html of the "threats of fundamentalism" while suggesting a faction of reformists may "reappear in a new form".

High-profile MP Ahmad Tavakoli has criticised attacks on political figures, saying that even those who have done wrong to the Iranian system should be treated with justice.

And Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, has declared that people want radicals to be banned and asked Iranians to listen to the warningsor marja (senior clerics) about moral decline, poverty, and inflation.

1220 GMT: Asking about Political Rights. Member of Parliament Kazem Delkhosh has raised a query: why do other parties need a permit for rallies when (Basij protesting in front of the Majlis gets receive meals, cookies, Sundis [juice drinks] and buses?

1215 GMT: All is Well (Nuclear Edition). The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, has emphasised that, despite recent conflicts and the UN sanctions resolution, Tehran will continue to work with monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

1210 GMT: More "Absolute Security". Basij commander Mohammad Reza Naghdi has announced new commando deployments will soon take place.

1200 GMT: Video Turmoil. A couple of clips from this week apparently pointing to tensions in Iranian politics. The clash between prominent member of Parliament Ali Motahari and pro-Ahmadinejad legislators, culminating in Motahari's "shut up and sit down", has emerged.

Then there is this claimed video of a crowd in Rasht facing up to "morality police", breaking the back window of their vehicle. Persian2English asks further information, including the report, "A few minutes later, Special Guard forces entered the scene with batons and shot tear gas into the crowd."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxoHdkLTzDo&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

1140 GMT: Critiquing Iran and the World. A group of Tehran University professors have issued a statement assessing Iran's foreign policy approach as an attempt to project power by creating divisions amongst others.

1130 GMT: We have posted two features out of Washington --- the sanctions provisions passed by the US Congress and soon to be signed by President Obama, and the statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton linking those sanctions to Iran's nuclear programme and human rights.

0650 GMT: All is Well (Gasoline Special). Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Ali-Reza Zeighami has declared that sanctions passed by the US Congress on Iran's energy sector will not put any pressure on the country: "Despite sanctions, Iran will be self-sufficient in gasoline production within two years and after that we can begin exporting gasoline."

Zeighami claimed that the completion of five projects at refineries will triple Iran's output.

0645 GMT: Culture Corner. It appears that Iran is not absolutely secure against the excesses of "Western" culture, however. Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, highlights the success of Rupert Murdoch's Farsi1 satellite television channel, with situation comedies and Latin American, Korean, and US soap operas dubbed into Persian.

We leave it to Iranian authorities to explain why --- unlike many other foreign channels which have been jammed --- Farsi1 has made it into Iranian homes.

0630 GMT: We emerge from the Iranian weekend with comments from human rights activist Ahmad Batebi on the dynamics of the Green Movement and the role of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Meanwhile, Iran's authorities continue to talk up the notion of "absolute security". Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, after his recent reflection on the post-election crisis (including admission of security mistakes and an implicit indication of electoral manipulation), is now giving assurances about the present.

Ahmadi-Moghaddam said Iran's aim is complete protection of borders by 2015, with more investment in the construction of roads and checkpoints. He also announced a plan to increase border patrol units with "state-of-the-art" equipment.

Iran: Summary of the New US Sanctions

The US State Department has issued a summary noting that President Obama has "welcomed new penalties approved by the U.S. Congress" against Iran --- in other words, he will sign the bill into law --- and outlining the provisions:

• The legislation approved by Congress requires U.S. banks to prohibit or impose strict conditions on “correspondent” or payable through accounts of any foreign banks working with certain Iranian entities, especially Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran Document & Analysis: US Gov’t Statement on Sanctions, Nukes, & Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (26 June): Absolute Security?

• Penalties would be imposed on U.S. banks if their foreign subsidiaries are doing business with the Revolutionary Guard Corps or any of its companies or affiliates.

• The legislation sanctions any company worldwide that exports gasoline or other refined petroleum products to Iran, or that provides Iran with goods or services that help it expand its own production of petroleum products. And any companies that finance, broker or underwrite the shipments, or deliver the gasoline or sell the production technology, also would be subject to U.S. sanctions.

• The legislation gives the president a number of choices of possible sanctions to impose that include restrictions on foreign exchange, banking transactions and property transactions.

• It also grants the president authority to waive sanctions on a company for 12 months on a case-by-case basis.

• The legislation also requires the president to compile a public list of individuals in Iran who are complicit in human rights violations — and would ban them from receiving U.S. visas and would freeze their financial assets held in U.S. banks.

• Any company that provides Iran with technology or equipment that would restrict free speech could not receive U.S. government contracts.

• Finally, the legislation imposes export controls to stop the illegal export of sensitive technology to Iran through other countries and would allow the president to impose severe export restrictions to countries that will not cooperate.

Iran Document & Analysis: US Gov't Statement on Sanctions, Nukes, & Human Rights

I am not sure, in all the fuss around this week's US Congress vote for stricter sanctions on Tehran, that this statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received much attention.

The first two paragraphs are the expected language on containing Iran's nuclear programme, but the third paragraph shifts the discussion to Tehran's approach to the rights of its citizens. We noted two weeks ago, on the anniversary of Iran's Presidential elections that the Obama and Clinton declarations were the most forthright to date on rights, with the Secretary of State calling for the release of all political prisoners (and naming some of them). Yesterday's declaration continues that trend.

But what does it mean in practice, as opposed to rhetoric?

The Latest from Iran (26 June): Absolute Security?

STATEMENT BY SECRETARY CLINTON

Passage of Iran Sanctions Legislation

I join President Obama in welcoming Congressional passage of legislation to strengthen sanctions against Iran. We support the broad aims of HR 2194, the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 — constraining Iran’s nuclear program, changing the calculus of Iran’s leaders, and demonstrating that Iran’s policies decrease its standing, and further isolate it in the international community. We are committed to fully implementing this legislation in a manner that advances our multilateral dual-track strategy of engagement and pressure.

These new measures, along with action by the European Union and Australia, build on United Nations Security Council Resolution 1929 and underscore the resolve of the international community to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and to hold it accountable for its international obligations. The United States will work with our partners to maximize the impact of these efforts and to continue pursuing a diplomatic resolution to the international community’s concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

In addition to increasing pressure on Iran’s illicit nuclear activities, this legislation also addressed the Iranian government’s continued violation of the fundamental rights of its citizens. A year after the Iranian people took to the streets to protest an election, the leadership continues to violate its most fundamental duties of government, denying its people the right to speak freely, to assemble without fear, and to the equal administration of justice. We support the Congress’ efforts to call attention to these violations, and the United States will continue to hold Iran accountable for its obligations to respect the rights of its own people.

Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi "The Green Movement and Mousavi"

Earlier this month, we featured Part 1 of Persian2English's interview with human rights activist Ahmad Batebi, who is living in exile in the US. The website has now published the second part of the discussion:

Maryam NY: I think you agree that supporters outside Iran need to unite more for the Iranian people’s movement. How can we be more united?

Ahmad Batebi: We Iranians think we are good and everyone else is bad.

Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”

For example, when you tell someone to come and take part in a demonstration, he or she says, “No, I’m not coming because there will be monarchists there.” Then you ask, “What’s wrong with that?” They respond, “Monarchists stole and robbed the country’s money and left Iran.”

Then you say, “Let’s go to another protest.” They say, “No, because there will be MKO (Mujahedin Khalq Organization) people there.” You ask, “Why is that bad?” They answer, “They went to Iraq in the midst of the Iran-Iraq war and betrayed the Iranian people.” Then you ask the monarchists, members of the MKO, and the leftists to come to a [planned] demonstration. They say they are not coming because Mousavi supporters will be there. You ask, “What is the problem with that?” They respond, “Mousavi was the Prime Minister at the time of the 1988 massacres.”

This shows that our mind passes judgment rapidly: “this is good” and “that is bad”. We think that we are right and good and others are wrong and evil.

The judge who sits in our minds is not a fair judge, but rather like a Saeed Mortazavi [former Tehran Prosecutor General, now an advisor to the President] who does not allow defence for the other side. People make mistakes. Everyone errs. Do you want to ban a person from entering the movement forever? The first step is to say that we are bad and others are good. Then we need to kill Judge Mortazavi from our heads and admit that we also make mistakes like others.

Maryam: In your view, should Mousavi explain his role in the 1988 massacres?

Batebi: No, not now.

Look, I am not a “Mousavist”. I believe that people should vote [in the Presidential elections], because I believe in active participation. I say that if everybody casts a vote, then every single person can make demands. The reason that the movement has become so strong is that many people participated [in the election]. Then they asked, “Where is my vote?” If we had boycotted the election, we wouldn’t have this many “creditors” asking for their shares.

But, I didn’t vote for Mousavi and I disliked him because I believed he was a little conservative and he still wants to take Iran back to its origins [of the 1980s].  However, as time passed, I realized that I was very wrong about Mousavi. It is true, my mode of thought is different from Mousavi’s. I am a secular person and I do not have many common views with him in such domains, but now, I have a lot of respect for him, because he has stood up to defend the people’s rights.

If we want to kill Mortazavi from our minds and judge [Mousavi] realistically, then in the era that Mousavi was Prime Minister, let’s consider that there were three separate powers [estates] in Iran: legislative, executive, and judiciary. Those who committed the murders were in the Judiciary. If we put ourselves in Mousavi’s shoes, in 1988, in the midst of war and conflict and while Khomeini was still alive and had such charisma, what should we have done? Were we supposed to kill Khomeini? Were we supposed to stand up to the Judiciary? The mood and atmosphere was not such that Mousavi could do anything in particular.

However, Mousavi should explain one day what the issues were, who was responsible, and what his role was. If he had made a mistake, he should apologize to the people, and if not, he should offer an explanation. He has to do this, but doing it now means hitting and beating ourselves. Once the movement prevails, then there is a lot of time to ask Mousavi to address this issue.

Maryam: The reason I suggested Mousavi to acknowledge the massacres is to unite the people more.

Batebi: But such an acknowledgment is only important for unifying people outside Iran. It’s not important for people who live inside Iran. It is enough for the Iranian people that Mousavi has had the courage to stand up to the ruling establishment. We who live outside the country cannot decide for the Iranian people. [What you mentioned] is the demand of the Diaspora community. I also believe he has to explain [his role], but we have more important issues to deal with right now. The people in Iran want the movement to continue breathing. It is better if Mousavi shows courage and stands like Karroubi. Then, later, we have time for all these debates.