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Friday
Jun112010

Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)

Update: This piece was published on the Huffington Post, titled : "The Green Movement in Iran is Alive, and Important."I added a final closing line for the occasion.

Since then, it has been published in a book, "Current Controversies: The Iranian Green Movement, Greenhaven Press."



On June 12, 2009, Iran's now infamous elections were held and hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad allegedly won with 62% of the vote. What resulted was a momentous period of time where Iranian dissidents voiced their opposition to the results and to the government itself, against all odds and at great personal risk.

On June 7th, 2010, Foreign Policy Magazine published an eight part series called "Misreading Tehran: Leading Iranian-American writers revisit a year of dreams and discouragement." It was written by mainstream journalists criticizing what were common assertions made by the media during the post election events: that Twitter was leading a "Revolution," that the regime was about to collapse, that the Green Movement would change everything by using technology to democratize democracy, and that Westerners could sit in their offices and homes and make a difference, 140 characters at a time. None of these things, according to some critics, were true. And so the conclusion must be that the Green Movement disappeared or has become insignificant since last summer. Technology (Twitter, social networking, New Media, ect.) , therefore, cannot really democratize a revolution. According to the media, all of the promise of post-election Iran has been lost.

But the critics saying these things, mainstream journalists, are really commenting on how in 2009 mainstream journalism, for a brief moment, attempted to copy, catch up with, and comment on New Media sources, such as Twitter, Facebook, Youtube, and many blogs that were accomplishing what the old media could not. And in this rush to catch up,  the media got it wrong. While many of these writers have very critical things to say about the New Media's role in these events, they are really criticizing their previous belief systems surrounding the New Media and the Green Movement.

They neither understood then, nor understand now, the true significance of the so-called and misnamed"Twitter Revolution," or the grander significance of the Green Movement, or the real story in Iran.

Revolutions are not won in a day. The American Revolution was the product of over 100 years of philosophical thought, and several decades of discontent (the Stamp Act was passed in 1764, and by 1765 Patrick Henry was already a famous speaker), followed by several years of open rebellion and acts of defiance (Boston massacre in 1770, Boston Tea Party in 1773), and at least a year of open warfare (from Lexington Green to Breed's/Bunker Hill), all before the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the opening chapter to a formal war that lasted more than ten years.  The "in-between" times were marked by backroom leadership, dinner table debate, church pulpit protests... democracy in an incubator. The idea that the Green Movement would be successful in a few short months is ridiculous, the product of the unbelievable promise and inspiring courage of the Iranian protesters crashing headlong into the ability for technology to spread the echoes of their "shot heard round the world" in an instant. Looking back, these hopes were naive, and the condemnation of their disappointment profoundly arrogant.

Dr. Scott Lucas, a former adjunct professor at an Iranian university and Professor of American Studies at the University of Birmingham (England), sums it up succinctly:

Prize fights are settled within 15 rounds of 3 minutes each; the quest for civil rights is not. The election, after all, was just the public apex of a larger, ongoing climb for political, economic, and social recognition, respect, and justice. The Green Movement, as significant as it would become, did not displace the movements for women’s rights, student rights, labour rights, legal rights, economic rights, religious rights, and the rights of Iran’s many ethnic groups. (Indeed, one of the ongoing, “deeper” issues of this past year has been how the Green Movement — if it is more than a symbolic entity — interacts with the activism of these other movements.)

This post-election contest, which rested upon years of discussion and challenge within the Islamic Republic, was always destined to be a marathon and not a sprint.

Twitter wasn't the story last June, and it certainly isn't today. Twitter was always a tool for getting news out more than it was for getting news in (though its ability to get news to supporters on the streets has also been dismissed too easily). But the REAL story is that for the last year a fledgling democratic movement has moved from the shadows, where it has been hunted for decades, and into the limelight. And then back out of it, which also doesn't matter. The movement has matured and grown, even though (like anything in an incubator) it has often struggled and foundered.

And what are the results of the struggle of the opposition movement in Iran? Not failure. Externally, the movement has inspired Hillary Clinton (with the direction of some of the State Department's staffers, and perhaps our letters to them), America's Foreign Policy has evolved from the false dichotomy of "invade or ignore (Bush)" to one of fostering developing democratic movements through the use of technology and a "Three Cups of Tea" outreach process to people in Iran, Sudan, Cuba, Venezuela, China, and beyond.  This process will take a while, but internally, as a direct result of the Green Movement, the regime is getting weaker. There are now serious divides inside the Iranian regime.  As unemployment mounts, inflation rises, the problems mentioned above go unresolved, and as the internet outreach of those who still care about the Green Movement continues, the future of Iran may be a successful revolution.

The most painful part of the media's quick dismissal of the opposition to the Ahmadinejad/Khamenei regime is this; Those of us who follow Iran, who have contacts within Iran, and who spend hours a day following the news there, know that the movement is actually gaining ground. We see signs that the regime is showing cracks in its armor. But we also see the bravery and sacrifice of the Iranians dissidents, men and women whose names never make it to the media.

Men like Farzad Kamangar, "a 34-year-old teacher and social worker, who was charged with Moharebeh (taking up arms against God), convicted and sentenced to death in February 2008, after a seven-minute long trial in which 'zero evidence' was presented." Then there are men like journalist and human rights defender Emadeddin Baghi, who has been arrested and is lavishing in poor health in Evin prison for daring to report the brutal crackdown of a ruthless dictator.

That doesn't include the (at least) 48 protesters who died in the streets, and the four more who were tortured and killed in prison, for speaking their voice of discontent. It doesn't include the 388 who were executed last year, or the 34 protesters who have been sentenced to death for speaking against  their government, or the 17 Kurds charged with "moharebeh" and tortured to confess,  just because they are vocal leaders of a hated minority.

Or Neda.

But the blood on the street means something. It means that the regime is sometimes forced into backing down. It means that some clerics are no longer afraid to question the authority of their government.

This is the real tragedy of the media coverage of Iran. Not only did they misrepresent the boat, and then miss the boat, but they missed the significance and importance of the boat. What we are talking about in Iran is a movement that could bring peace between Israel and Iran, unsanctioned trade between Iran and the rest of the world, and the replacement of one of our greatest enemies with a potentially great friend, without a single bullet being fired by the United States. Not only that, but the success of the Green Movement would be the first step in the victory against human rights abuses everywhere, abuses which stifle the democratic process and thus deny the rest of the world the next generation of peaceful neighbors.

By demonizing Iran for its nuclear program, the media has created a bugbear that has encouraged the warmongers and distorted the truth in the Middle East. These same pressures have forced Obama to risk destroying with his feet what he has built with his hands. The coverage of the Green Movement in Iran was a chance to break that narrative, and by having to retract a reckless, sexy story about social media, the news agencies have now reverted to their radioactive news cycle by dismissing the best hope for change in the region, and beyond.

Human rights violations have hampered democracy in Iran, and with it the best chance for hope and change in the Middle East. The media wants to dismiss this, because long and complicated stories don't sell. War sells. Nukes sell. But I'm not buying.

The success of the democratic movement in Iran cannot be measured in Tweets, in newspaper stories, in rallies attended (or not attended) by reformists, or even in protesters. It must be counted in the desire for freedom and peace. As such, the strength of the Green Movement in Iran is countless, and growing.

Friday
Jun112010

China This Week: Pipelines to Myanmar, US Penalties, Google's Concession

New EA correspondent Shan Shan launches our China This Week feature:

China Starts Pipelines to Myanmar

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the country's largest oil and gas producer and supplier, has announced that work has started on construction of two oil and gas pipelines between China and Myanmar.

In a statement posted on its website, the CNPC said that the pipelines, each of 1100 kilometres, are expected to run from the Kyaukpyu port on Myanmar's west coast and enter China at Ruili in Yunnan Province. The oil pipeline has a designed transport capacity of 22 million tonnes per year, while the natural gas pipeline has capacity of 12 billion cubic meters annually.

The statement did not say when the project would be finished.

US Sets Penalties on Chinese Drill Pipe: The US Commerce Department Tuesday set preliminary duties on imports of $119.2 million drill pipe from China. The department said in a statement that it "determined that Chinese exporters of drill pipe have received countervailable subsidies of 15.72 percent”. Based on these rates, the department will instruct US Customs and Border Protection to collect a cash deposit or bond.

The department said that it will make its final determination in August.

Agricultural Bank of China's Share Plan Approved: Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has been given the go-ahead by Chinese regulators for what could be the world's largest share flotation. China's securities regulators Wednesday approved the initial public offering as the lender finalized preparations for its dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

ABC plans to sell up to 22.24 billion A-shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and up to 25.41 billion shares in Hong Kong.

However, analysts cannot agree on the likely amount Agbank will raise. It is considered the weakest of China's "big four" banks because its main customer base is within China's poorer rural communities. The offer is also complicated by the continuing uncertainly in global financial markets.

Natural disasters kill 157 in China in May: Natural disasters in China in May left 157 people dead and 22 missing, and caused about 45.17 billion yuan ($6.61 billion) in direct economic losses, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on Wednesday.

Disasters, including floods, storms, landslides, droughts, snowfalls, freezing temperatures, and earthquakes, caused the evacuation of 842,000 residents and affected the lives of more than 64.57 million people, the ministry said in a statement on its website. Natural disasters hit 5.17 million hectares of farmland in May, destroying about 956,000 hectares of crops.

The damage caused by natural disasters in May was much more severe than in previous years. Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong and Chongqing were the provincial-level regions worst hit.

Shenzhen to Raise Minimum Wage: The minimum wage in Shenzhen City in south China's Guangdong Province will increase in July by 10 percent to 1,100 yuan per month ($161.04), municipal authorities said Wednesday.

"The pay rise will increase costs for labor-intensive companies, but I hope those companies will take this as an opportunity to speed up their technological innovation and industrial upgrading to boost their competitiveness," said Wang Min, head of the city's Human Resources and Social Security Bureau.

Shenzhen's move comes after a series of pay rises in China. Beijing will increase its minimum wage by 20 percent to 960 yuan from July 1.

The most dramatic rise has been at Foxconn, an IT contract manufacturer which will raise salaries for assembly workers at its production base in Shenzhen by 66 percent to 2,000 yuan per month from October 1.

Google agrees not to collect Wi-Fi data in Hong Kong: Google has ceased operating its Street View cars in Hong Kong and undertaken that, when the cars recommence driving, they will not collect Wi-Fi data, Hong Kong's   Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data said on Tuesday.

Google has agreed to provide the Commissioner access to the payload data collected by the Street View cars and shall render such assistance as may be required to facilitate the Commissioner's understanding of the process of the collection and the interpretation of such data.

In the meantime, Google shall securely store the data, including any backup, archives, or copies and shall not tamper with same or allow anyone to have unauthorized use or access which may contravene the laws of Hong Kong. Google has also assured to completely delete the payload data at the direction of the Commissioner and to provide the Commissioner with an independent third party's verification of the deletion.
Thursday
Jun102010

Comments Update: Goodbye Threaded Comments

Just a very quick Disqus update to say we've removed threaded comments (where replies nestle below the comment they're reply to). Based on feedback from EA staff and readers have, they won't be missed.



Thursday
Jun102010

Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 12 June Protest (10 June)

From the Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, activist and Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful

The informed and vigilant people of Iran

The informed and conscientious presence and participation of you at polling stations of the 10th Presidential election last year, taking advantage of the right to vote..., was a great move and an everlasting epic.  It would have returned the country’s future path from the dreadful downhill, in which it was captive and today has become more obvious, to a bright future and the climax of prosperity that the great nation of Iran deserves.

Unfortunately tainted hands falsified your pure votes, and the results were announced in such a way that shocked everyone and initiated the unified protests of you informed people to get back your lost right. However, it was a sadness that your peaceful presence and rallies, instead of being heard and paid attention to, were suppressed and your forever glorious nation paid dearly over the past year to get back your stolen right.

Your great and unforgettable rally on 25 Khordaad (15 June) of last year is the evidence of the truth that even passage of time cannot reduce its value. The justified expectations of you dear people prompted us to request to have a rally for the anniversary of the unforgettable day of 22 Khordaad (12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election)...to follow up on the justified demands of a prosperous nation that, despite all suppressions, did not wash its hands from peaceful ways and hopefully seeks a bright future for its county and the country of its children.

Based on Article 27 of the Islamic Republic’s Constitution that clearly states the unconditional right of the people to hold [peaceful] protests and demonstrations, and to prevent tension, while not giving any excuses to the repressors and providing safety and security of the people, we also handed in the letter of request for a permit to hold a demonstration on the anniversary of epic 22 Khordaad (12 June) from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square. [We gave this] to the office of the Governor of Tehran and the Interior Ministry in a timely manner but unfortunately, with endless made-up excuses, this request has remained unanswered.

Therefore a number of reformist parties and groups, to eliminate the made-up excuses, handed in a similar request to the Interior Ministry. The final answer of the Interior Ministry to this request has been stated in the latest letter of the representatives of reformist parties, who have announced that they have no hope to obtain any permit from this administration.

Now that there is only 48 hours left to the time planned for the demonstration, considering the report of the representatives of reformist parties and for the safety of the people, we are announcing that the planned demonstration will not be held. It is obvious that, with the dark history of the past year in repressing the protesters whose only crime was to demand their vote in a peaceful manner and with reportsindicating that once again hardliners and repressors are being organized to attack the defenceless and innocent people, we must ask the people and the protesters to follow up on their rightful demands and requests through less costly and more effective methods.

It is self-deceptive and naive to believe that in [the Government's] artillery with all the threats, insults, and lies, [it was] able to repress and subjugate people’s protest movement. Despite the deafening claims of the so-called national TV and Radio stations and the pro-government press giving the impression that the protesting forces of the Iranian people’s movement has diminished, the very same individuals involved in these claims --- as well as the policymakers --- more than anyone realise this fact that the movement is alive. The true honour belongs to those who, despite all the threats, dangers, and insecurities and knowing the potential life-threatening and financial consequences, still have not given up on their rightful protest. Even their simple announcement of demonstration makes the repressors shiver from fear with their wide-scale and comprehensive security and police mobilization. This is the tradition of an illegitimate government that does not give a permit to hold demonstrations to anyone but to their own supporters.

The path that you, the great nation of Iran, have chosen cannot be blocked, and you will brighten your role in this path with creativity.  We also in all aspects, until the emergence of the bright morning of tomorrow,=will be with you and will accompany you.

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi

June 10, 2010
Thursday
Jun102010

The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Focus reports that activist Mehdi Farahi Shandiz was detained on Wednesday.

1900 GMT: Tonight's Rooftop "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) and "Marg Bar Dictator" (Death to the Dictator) Chants:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqqbdY0Yso[/youtube]

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions…and Rights (9 June)
Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj3IAX369J0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

1450 GMT: We have posted the English text of the Mousavi-Karroubi statement.

Dissected News evaluates:

"One way to look at this move by Moussavi and Karroubi is that they did the only thing they could. Neither leader can risk being arrested and having no legitimate and legal means to pursue reform. As was alluded to in the official statement, if large numbers of protesters show up for a rally that has been called off, it will appear as though the Green Movement is larger than its public leadership (this is true, anyway). If few numbers show up, then the Green Movement will still be able to say that the absence of large numbers was due to the backing off of the leaders of the movement."

1355 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Agence France Presse have picked up on the Mousavi-Karroubi statement, "Iran opposition leaders call off demos for vote anniversary".

1340 GMT: It's Official: Green Movement Bigger Threat than Saddam. The head of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari has pronounced, "Although last year's sedition did not last more than around eight months, it was much more dangerous than the imposed war which Saddam began against us through the support of the international community."

Jafari continued, "Because of the grace of God and the prophet-like guidance of the supreme leader and people's vigilance, we put this bitter incident behind us and the enemies found out the revolution cannot be diverted through these methods."

1230 GMT: New Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. As we still await the final word from the Ministry of Interior on requests for permits to march on 12 June, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have issued another statement, via both Karrroubi's Saham News and Mousavi's Kalemeh. In view of the threat to people's safety, they are withdrawing their request to march; however, they note the turnout on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year, which was also in an "undeclared" protest. They continue, "In the great nation of Iran, it is not possible to block people on the way they have chosen and their creative role in making this path will appear....It is simplistic to think you can suppress the opposition with lies, threats, and humiliation."

1000 GMT: 22 Khordaad MediaFail. Reuters puts in an early candidate for worst pre-12 June "analysis": "Iran's Reformers Discouraged a Year after Vote".

On the basis of interviews with four --- count 'em, four --- Iranians, the comment of a political scientist, and an absence of any consideration of the latest developments in the political situation, the article assures us, "A year after Iran's disputed presidential vote, hardliners are firmly back in charge of a country where economic challenges and the nuclear dispute with the West now loom larger than a once-vibrant reform movement."

0843 GMT: Labour Front. Peyke Iran claims Saeed Torabian, the spokesman for Tehran bus workers, has been assaulted at home and taken away by security forces.

0839 GMT: Blood Money Will Make It All Go Away. Fereshteh Ghazi, speaking with the families of those killed in the post-election crisis reports: "Rather than conducting investigations to identify those who ordered and carried out the murder of protesters, the Iranian government has been pressuring the families of murdered protesters to forego holding memorials for their loved ones. One family member was told that “because the murderer was not identified, the case has been sent to the implementation division for payment of blood money from the public budget.”

0835 GMT: The Detained Journalists. More information on the status of imprisoned reporters and editors: a new list from the Committee to Protect Journalists has 37 currently imprisoned, but Reporters and Human Rights Activists of Iran counts 47 in jail, e.g.. Sousan Mohammadkhani Ghiasvand from Kurdistan, who does not appear on the CPJ list.

0830 GMT: A Solution. Rah-e-Sabz posts a long analysis from the Council of National-Religious Activists and its suggestion of five ways out of the crisis: 1) a free and protected rally on 22 Khordaad/12 June; 2) release of political prisoners and an end to executions; 3) restoring the political freedoms laid down in Constitution to the Iranian people, especially freedom of assembly, speech, and media; 4) an end to restrictions on political parties, non-governmental organisations and human rights organisations; 5) correction of election laws and free elections under impartial supervision.

0820 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Despite the attempts by the Supreme Leader to referee the Parliament's dispute with the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani presses on. At a lecture, Larijani warned, "If legislative and judiciary branches become subordinated to executive branch, it might accelerate the process of following [the President's] plans. But it would lead to dictatorship." Larijani continued, playing up to Ayatollah Khamenei and putting down Ahmadinejad:
Centralization of the Supreme leader's power won't lead to corruption since the leader should possess special qualifications which are not taken into account when the parliament speaker and the president are elected. Therefore the executive branch must adhere to the laws defining its authority. The government is not allowed to interfere with the duties of the legislative branch and disagree what passed by the Majlis.

Khabar Online also features the statement of Larijani ally, MP Ahmad Tavakoli: "Although in observing the bills, the Majlis may not be flawless, the government is not authorized to disobey the laws ratified by the legislative branch. Even if the statesmen believe that a law can not be executed, they should formally request the Majlis to revoke that and help the lawmakers to ratify the bills with the least amount of mistakes."

0815 GMT: 4 June Follow-Up "The Shadow Man". Earlier this week, Mohammad Ali Ansari, the coordinator of the commemoration for Ayatollah Khomeini last Friday, wrote Seyed Hassan Khomeini about the disruption of the event with the heckling of Hassan Khomeini's speech. Ansari mentioned, amidst discussion of possible organisation of the sabotage, a "Commander Vahid".

Rooz Online does some investigating to find out who Commander Vahid is and how he might be connected to the Supreme Leader.

0733 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The number of cities around the world holding rallies on 12 June is now 79.

0723 GMT: Rafsanjani Trashes the Election (and Criticises the Supreme Leader)? Yesterday we passed on reports that the office of Hashemi Rafsanjani had put out a tough letter denouncing President Ahmadinejad's behaviour over the election and challenging Ayatollah Khamenei for remaining silent on the issue.

We've had a look at the letter on Rafsanjani's website and, despite the former President's normal caution, it seems quite challenging. Could it be that Rafsanjani, just before 22 Khordaad (12 June), is going to make a public stand against the President --- and ask the Supreme Leader to make a stand as well?

0720 GMT: Hanging Judges. Omid Memarian profiles "hardline" judges --- Abolghasem Salavati, Mohammad Moghiseh, and Pir-Abbasi --- of the Revolutionary Court.

0710 GMT: Winning With Information. We have posted an interview with activist Ahmad Batebi, "The People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information".

0625 GMT: Larijani Strikes A Nuclear Pose. He may be at odds with President Ahmadinejad on political issues, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is making sure he's alongside the Government in defiance of the latest UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme.

Larijani said at a press conference, "We are regretful that the US is playing a naive game in New York these days," adding that this game was being led by the "Zionist lobby".
0615 GMT: No More Nedas? Rumour of the day comes from The New York Times, citing a pro-Government website:
A factory in Iran has been closed down after trying to mass produce statuettes of people who were killed in the protests that followed last year’s disputed presidential election, among them, Neda Agha-Soltan....

The pro-government Aty News Web site, reported on Wednesday that the factory, located in the eastern province of Semnan, was shuttered after just one month, though officials denied the closure.

The Web site....also states that the factory’s 40 female employees were discovered working without hejabs...and that they were mixing freely with the male members of the staff.

0545 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Yet another invitation to show up on 12 June comes from the students of Azad University of Tehran.

0530 GMT: First, a reminder of Iran just over 48 hours before the anniversary of the elections --- last night's rooftop Allahu Akhbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B073FkNZdDQ&playnext_from=TL&videos=4udYKWS5xNc[/youtube]

We have also posted yet another interview by Mehdi Karroubi in the run-up to 12 June. He reviews the development of Iran from the Revolution to today and, despite much pessimism, asserts, "In The End, The Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran".

Of course, the headline story in non-Iranian media is yesterday's UN Security Council resolution for a new set of sanctions on Tehran. Even that, however, could not completely escape the internal situation in Iran: we have posted the video of President Obama's comments, with his reference to the "repression" of the Iranian people, and a snap analysis in yesterday's updates.

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now evaluates the developments and puts out this warning: "The sanctions lend an air of legitimacy to the regime’s claim that nefarious outside forces, or Doshman (the all encompassing enemy), as [Ayatollah] Khamenei likes to refer to them, have it in for Iran; thereby giving the hardcore Islamist radicals of the regime a pretext and excuse for continued harsh repression of the opposition."