Two-Step Analysis of Mr Obama's War Plan: Step One in Pakistan

Related Post: Mr Obama’s War for/on Pakistan-Afghanistan - Holes in the Middle
Related Post: Mr Biden’s War? An Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy from 2007
Related Post: Two-Step Analysis of Mr Obama’s War Plan: Step Two in Afghanistan
Related Post: Mr Obama’s War - Today Proves Pakistan is Number One

The spin is in. The allies (NATO) and no-longer-allies (Afghan President Hamid Karzai, in a phone call from Barack Obama) have been briefed. So today, in time for Hillary Clinton's showcase conference on Afghanistan at The Hague and the NATO summit over the next two weeks, the grand Obama strategy on Pakistan and Afghanistan will be unveiled.

STEP 1. TO THE CORE IN PAKISTAN

That's right. All the early-Administration scrapping over Afghanistan --- how many troops? nation-building or no nation-buiding? Karzai or no Karzai? --- is still significant but it's not the priority in this plan.

"One official" fed the line to CNN: "Disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda and destroy the safe haven that has developed in Pakistan and prevent it from rebuilding in Afghanistan."

Destroy in Pakistan first means the US stops "al Qaeda" in Afghanistan later.

Forget for the moment the obvious: "al Qaeda" in Afghanistan is not the primary challenge (my own suspicion is that's a spectral excuse). Give the benefit of the doubt to the Administration: attention to the safe havens is occuring because they are underpinning the Afghan insurgency --- it is not occurring as a diversion/alternative to the failure of the American political-economic-military approach in Afghanistan.

How will the destruction of these safe havens, presumably by an expansion of US airstrikes and pressure on the Pakistani military to up its ground operations, lead to stability in Pakistan?

The Administration's answer will be the accompanying increase in economic aid, tripling to $1.5 billion per year. Yet that in itself ignores the obvious: Pakistan has been receiving big, big bundles of American cash since September 2001? Given past allegations that US economic aid has been swallowed up by corruption and mis-expenditure, that it has been diverted to other projects unrelated to the "War on Terror", that the current Government of Pakistan is led by a President who has been convicted elsewhere for financial impropriety (and charged with the crime in his own country), how does this version of the Obama "stimulus package" differ from those over the last seven-plus years?

And while we're raising an eyebrow over the easy narrative of a new US-Pakistan co-operation (We Bomb; You Build), how does this square with Thursday's story from the New York Times?

The Taliban’s widening campaign in southern Afghanistan is made possible in part by direct support from operatives in Pakistan’s military intelligence agency, despite Pakistani government promises to sever ties to militant groups fighting in Afghanistan, according to American government officials.

The support consists of money, military supplies and strategic planning guidance to Taliban commanders who are gearing up to confront the international force in Afghanistan that will soon include some 17,000 American reinforcements.

Support for the Taliban, as well as other militant groups, is coordinated by operatives inside the shadowy S Wing of Pakistan’s spy service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, the officials said. There is even evidence that ISI operatives meet regularly with Taliban commanders to discuss whether to intensify or scale back violence before the Afghan elections.

So somehow the US has to turn the "good" elements in the Pakistani Government against the "rogue" elements in the ISI. That lead, however, cannot come from President Asif Ali Zardari, who has effectively been sidelined both by Washington and by his internal travails. Another New York Times story tipped off the US head-scratching over a political solution:

Now, as the Obama administration completes its review of strategy toward the region this week, his sudden ascent has raised an urgent question: Can [Nawaz] Sharif, 59, a populist politician close to Islamic parties, be a reliable partner? Or will he use his popular support to blunt the military’s already fitful campaign against the insurgency of the Taliban and Al Qaeda?

Instead of working through this complex political equation, the US option will probably be to find its "good" elements in the Pakistani military, who may happen to benefit from the increased American aid. The Pakistani military commander, General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, has been across the world from Washington to Kabul to Islamabad in consultations with US officials, and it is notable that CIA Director Leon Panetta was in Pakistan last Sunday for further talks.

The same General, however, has not been on board publicly with an offensive against the "safe havens", and the Pakistani Army in its limited operations in recent months has been firmly rebuffed by local forces. The default position has been a tacit acceptance of the US aerial assault, even though that has not brought a marked change in the political situation. To the contrary, the autonomy of local leaders, symbolised by the declaration of sharia law, has increased.

Could the Obama Administration really be pushing for a tacit strategic takeover by the Pakistani military? In exchange for bowing to the US demands to take a more aggressive approach to the "safe havens" in the northwest provinces and to curb the ISI, the "good" allies would get a healthy cut of US assistance and an enhanced internal power.

Pakistan: A Political Deal for a New Coalition?

Related Post: Chief Justice Chaudhry Reinstated; What Next for Zardari?

Update (23 March): President Zardari has responded to the political manoeuvres with his own call for reconciliation. In an address on Pakistan Day, he asked "everyone to work in the spirit of tolerance, mutual accommodation and respect for dissent and invite everyone to participate in the national effort for ... reconciliation and healing the wounds".

I'm not sure if this development will be noticed in the British and American press, but it could be the sign of a political arrangement for a new coalition Government and the political demise of President Asif Ali Zardari.

The Pakistani newspaper Dawn reports that Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani will meet opposition leader Nawaz Sharif on Sunday with "a message of reconciliation and goodwill". Gilani said that the Pakistan People's Party wanted an arrangement "to strengthen democracy".

Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) responded in kind, saying it has no objection to a coalition government with the PPP in Punjab. Presumably this would include the restoration of Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of the province.

And the striking absence in the Dawn story? Not a word from President Zardari.

Pakistan: Chief Justice Chaudhry Reinstated; What Next for Zardari?

Related Post: Pakistan - A Political Deal for a New Coalition?

A week after President Asif Ali Zardari gave way to the demands of the Long March,  Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry (pictured) was formally restored to his position in a flag-raising ceremony at his house.

Now the real contest between the Presidency, other political parties, and the courts begins. The easy case will be last month's barring of former President Nawaz Sharif from office and the removal of Sharif's brother, Shahbaz, as chief minister of Punjab. This was always a political, rather than legal, manoeuvre, and the Zardari Government's concession that it will seek a review of the decision indicates the Sharifs will be "legitimate" politicians very soon.

More intriguing will be the Supreme Court's position towards Zardari. The judges installed by Zardari's predecessor, Pervez Musharraf, rubber-stamped an "amnesty" from the corruption charges that had forced Zardari into exile. I suspect that a political deal will trump the law, and the charges will not be reinstated; however, public pressure for a strong, "independent" judiciary may make life troublesome for the President.

Pakistan: The Long March of Victory?

12 noon GMT: Imran Khan, the leader of the Tehrik-i-Insaf (Pakistan for Justice) party, has told the media that Supreme Court Chief Justice Chaudhry was "restored by the power of the masses". He called for cases of detentions and missing persons to be pursued by the courts.

10:15 a.m. GMT: Scenes of celebration and dancing at Iftikhar Chaudhry's house. Dawn reporter Musadiq Sanwal writes, "Only thing everybody is saying is that this is beginning of a revolution and they expect a lot more to happen.

Morning Update (5:45 a.m. GMT): The overnight news is stunning. In the early-morning hours, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani addressed the nation and announced the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry (pictured) and almost 50 judges forced from their positions by Pervez Musharraf, President Asif Ali Zardari's predecessor. Hundreds of activists have been released from detention.

On the political front, Gillani confirmed the news that the Government will pursue a review of the court ruling that disqualified the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), Nawaz Sharif, and his brother Shahbaz, the Governor of Punjab, from public office.

Sharif reacted with the statement, "We are now calling off this long march," saying that the decision was made after discussions with lawyers and other political leaders such as Imran Khan. He continued, "Very soon we will play our role in implementing real democracy in this country."

A cautious but welcoming American reaction came through the US Embassy in Pakistan, "This is a statesmanlike decision taken to defuse a serious confrontation, and the apparent removal of this long-standing national issue is a substantial step towards national reconciliation."

The speed of the Zardari Government's concession to its legal and political opponents is almost breath-taking. As late as Sunday morning, the President was holding out against the restoration of Chaudhry, partly because of the legal difficulties it might cause for him, partly because it would hand a notable victory to the political opposition in general and Nawaz Sharif in particular.

Why Zardari gave in will be the subject of speculation today, but his political support was crumbling, with the resignations of former allies such as Information Minister Sherry Rahman as well as leading security commanders. As early as Thursday, Washington had made clear that it wanted a compromise with the opposition, and the presence of the head of the Pakistani military, Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, at yesterday's Zardari-Gillani meetings is a signal that the military was looking for a settlement.

Indeed, according to sources speaking to the Pakistani newspaper Dawn, Kiani's intervention was the catalyst for Zardari's concessions. He told the President and Prime Minister "that they needed to reverse some of the controversial decisions before the situation spiralled out of control....It was after his not-so-veiled warning that the two top civilian leaders agreed to roll back some of the controversial decisions of the previous and present governments."

Pakistan: Day Four of the Long March

9:05 p.m. Geo News reports Chief Justice Chaudhry to be restored to his position in an address by Prime Minister Gillani at 2 a.m. local time.

Gillani is currently meeting President Zardari and General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, the head of Pakistan's military, at the President's residence.

8:30 p.m. Rumours continue to fly: Gillani talking to Zardari by phone, Pakistan Muslim (N) leadership of Shahbaz Sharif to be restored in Punjab province, Saad Hamid to be declared new Chief Justice.

7:45 p.m. The Internet chatter is that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani will soon be addressing the nation on television, possibly to announce the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

3:45 p.m. GMT: Showdown? Nazar Sharif's convoy is nearing Minar-e-Pakistan, the minaret in Lahore's Iqbal Park, where he may address the crowd. Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira has said Long March participants will be stopped by force.2:05 p.m. GMT: No recent updates on #LongMarch #Pakistan via Twitter. Has Government successfully cut communications?

1:30 p.m. GMT: Dawn News is reporting that the Deputy Attorney General in Lahore, Abdul Hayee Gillani, has resigned in protest against police suppression of the protests. Meanwhile, large police contingents have arrived at the Islamabad airport.

12:30 p.m. GMT: Nawaz Sharif has defied house arrest with a convoy attempting to reach the centre of Lahore. Police have blocked the convoy and have been baton-charging protestors and firing tear gas. The latest report is that Sharif has finally reached the centre to lead the Long March.

Aitzaz Ahsan, one of the leaders of the lawyers' movement, has reached the Lahore High Court. Earlier it was reported that Ahsan was under house arrest.  However, Bar Association President Ahmed Ali Kurd has been blocked again by Pakistani authorties, refused admission onto a flight in Quetta.

Morning update (7:30 a.m. GMT): The Government has launched a bold but possibly pre-emptive strike, as
marchers try to reach both Lahore and Islamabad, with the house arrest of Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader Nawaz Sharif in Lahore. Sharif has been ordered to remain in his house for three days.

The effect of the news and of rumours of the arrest of Aitzaz Ahsan, a leader of the lawyers' movement, is uncertain at this point. Roadblocks are being set up in Islamabad and Lahore, and the army has been requistioned to stop marchers.