Pakistan: Day Three of the Long March

4:30 p.m. GMT: It appears that the Zardari Government is trying to reach a settlement with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) party of Nawaz Sharif by announcing that it would file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the disqualification of Sharif and his brother Shahbaz from public office. The PML (N) is not conceding ground, however, on its demand for the restoration of deposed judges.

1:20 p.m. GMT: Despite roadblocks and detentions under Section 144, smaller groups of protestors are making their way to Lahore. Interior Minister Rehman Malik has announced restrictions on protests in the Pakistani capital, notably no processions or sit-ins on Constitution Avenue in the capital city, while claiming to have discussed alternate venues with Long March organisers. He is also warning of the possibility of a suicide or targeted attack at the venue of the Long March sit-in.

An emergency meeting of the ruling Pakistan People's Party has been called for this evening. Earlier rumours of a possible deal between Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif over a Charter of Democracy seem to have been nipped in the bud by the President: "I am not going to negotiate under pressure. Mr Sharif has to abandon the Long March.”

8:15 a.m. GMT: Pakistani authorities have again prevented Ahmed Ali Kurd, the President of the Bar Association, from reaching Lahore. Two days after his convoy was halted, Kurd and his travelling party were not allowed to board a plane.

7:30 a.m. GMT: The Long March is expected to reach Lahore today. Despite the political manoeuvring yesterday pointing to a possible compromise between President Asif Ali Zardari and his opponents, Government forces moved against demonstrators overnight. The Vice President of the Bar Association, Saeed Akhtar Khan, has been put under house arrest.

Zardari has come under further pressure from within his Government, as Information Minister Sherry Rahman, formerly a close ally of the President, resigned. She is reportedly angry over a Government clamp-down on the media, including the closure of private channel Geo News.

Al Jazeera are also reporting angry exchanges between Zardari and the head of the military, Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.

Did the US Avert a Coup in Pakistan? No.

And now an enlightening tale of the Internet and how to substitute an exaggeration for the real story:

This morning there are stories flying around the Web that Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, may have stopped a military coup in Pakistan through a series of phone call to General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, through a series of phone calls.

It is being reported by more reliable sources like Al Jazeera that Kiani and President Asif Ali Zardari have clashed in the last 24 hours, but Mullen didn't intervene to stop a military takeover. Here's how the rumour, and distortion, started.

On Thursday night, Mullen was interviewed by Charlie Rose of the US Public Broadcasting System. Here's the video and transcript of the key exchange in the discussion:

CHARLIE ROSE: But you see reports today of increasing strife between Zardari, the leader of Pakistan, and his opposition, worrying some people that it might become Musharraf all over again.

MICHAEL MULLEN: Sure. We’re watching -- obviously watching this lawyers march very carefully. And I’ve been engaged from the standpoint of understanding what’s going on there, and I know that there are people are concerned that this could degenerate into a situation that could very possibly generate a crisis, which may cause actions to be taken on the part of the military.

I don’t think that possibility is out there as a high probability right now, but certainly it’s a concern. And I’ve interacted with my counterpart in Pakistan upwards of 10 times. I mean, I’ve been with him
upwards of 10 times over the last year, and he is committed to a civilian government. He’s committed to the democracy that’s there. In my view, the last thing in the world he wants to do is become -- is take over as President Musharraf did.

CHARLIE ROSE: He wants to stay out of politics?

MICHAEL MULLEN: He does want to stay out of politics. He also -- he wants to do the right thing for Pakistan. And he’s in a very, very tough spot. He also knows his country well, and so obviously he’s paying a lot of attention to this as well, as we all are. And I’m just hopeful that this doesn’t turn into another crisis in Pakistan.

This is straightforward: those pushing the "coup" question have turned Mullen's 10 exchanges with Kiani over the last year, which include recent meetings in Washington and Kabul, into 10 phone calls from Mullen to Kiani in recent days. Those discussions were on broader military matters, notably the handling of the insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Provinces.

The US Government does not want a coup in the middle of this crisis. If Washington thinks Zardari is too damaging to stay in power, then it will look for his replacement, but at a quieter time and a less dramatic process.

If those jumping to coup conclusions had listened to the next section of Mullen's interview, they would have gotten to the real heart of the story:

CHARLIE ROSE: How do you get the army chief of staff, Kiyani, to take those military forces and use them not in anticipation of conflict with India, but more in pursuit of forces that want to destabilize Pakistan?

MICHAEL MULLEN: Well, first of all, he recognizes that he has an extremist threat in Pakistan. They’ve lost many, many citizens. And in fact, there’s -- if you look at the suicide bombings which have occurred over the last year or so, they’ve actually moved towards -- and a couple of them have actually occurred in Islamabad. So he recognizes there’s a serious extremist terrorist threat inside his country, and in fact his forces have fought very hard this year up in Bajaur, which is in Mohmand, up on the western border.

Clearly, the Mumbai attacks in India put him in a position where he had to focus more on the Indian border, and he has. I mean, he’s a chief who’s got threats coming from both directions. It’s very important -- and I give President Musharraf and Prime Minister Singh a lot of credit - because they actually detentioned [sic] that border during President Musharraf’s time, and in fact the tourism started to flourish, there was trade which started to flourish across that border, and all that got suspended with the Mumbai attacks.

So General Kiyani knows what he has to do. He needs to move more troops to the west and he needs to train them in counterinsurgency.

There you have it. As Josh Mull has noted on this site, the Obama Administration wants to keep the Pakistani military focused on the "sanctuary" in the northwest and wants the Pakistani Government firmly behind Pakistani, US, and joint operations there. There should be no conflict with India distracting from that effort.

And --- here is the point of the US policy towards the Long March --- there should be no distraction of domestic politics from that overriding objective. So Washington's efforts over the last few days have been not to topple Zardari but to get the President to back off from a showdown with political rivals like Nawaz Sharif and to be careful in his handling of the lawyers' movement.

If Zardari continues to see political and judicial opponents as Public Enemies Number One, and thus loses the plot on the approach to the "real" insurgency, then he may have to go.

But not now.

UPDATED: The Latest on the Long March in Pakistan

UPDATE (8:30 p.m. GMT): Some of those detained by Pakistani security forces, including Munir Malik, have now been released.

Meanwhile, there is some intriguing political manoeuvring between the Zardari Government and the US. In a pointed signal that Washington was keeping its options open, US Ambassador Anne Patterson met with Nawaz Sharif on Thursday. Then US envoy Richard Holbrooke joined Patterson and President Zardari in a 20-minute phone conversation and "expressed concern over the political turmoil and arrest of political and lawyers....[The] US wanted continuity of democracy in Pakistan so that war against terrorism could be taken to its logical end." Holbrooke urged Zardari to "show restraint" in his handling of the political opposition.

The Long March, organised by lawyers to protest against the policies of the Zardari Government and its interference with the judiciary, began this afternoon in several Pakistan cities. It started in Lahore just over a half-hour after its start time of 12 noon, with 500 lawyers moving toward the High Court. They were soon joined by another 500 peoples, including some with the flags of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and Jamaat-i-Islami, the oldest religious party in Pakistan.

Later in the afternoon, another group of about 2000 protestors began moving from Karachi to Islamabad. The march was led by the lawyers’ movement, including former Supreme Court Bar Association president Munir A. Malik and Sindh High Court Bar Association President Rasheed A. Rizvi, but also includes students and party members from PML (N), Jamaat-i-Islami, and Labour.

Malik, Rizvi, and several other march leaders were detained just over an hour later, and other arrests followed. The total detained is now estimated at 100, and police have baton-charged the marchers. Others have had their bus and car keys confiscated, stranding them at Karachi Toll Plaza.

Pakistan: On Eve of Political Showdown, Hundreds Arrested

From this morning's The Times of London:

Pakistan has arrested hundreds of opposition political activists in an overnight sweep before a planned protest rally, as a looming political showdown presents the most serious challenge yet to the year-old government [of President Asif Ali Zardari, pictured at left).

The story continues:

Most of those arrested belong to the popular Pakistan Muslim League (N) led by Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister, and Tehrik-e-Insaf, the party led by Imran Khan, the former cricket captain.

A senior politician in the Pakistan Muslim League (N), Raja Zafarul Haq, was placed under house arrest and this morning police were hunting for Imran Khan. Scores of other MPs and lawyers have gone into hiding to avoid detention.

A ban has been placed on public gatherings across the country and heavy contingents of police and paramilitary troops sealed off the capital Islamabad where opposition parties and lawyers plan to stage a sit-in outside the parliament building on Friday.

Mr Obama's War: Pakistan Military, Prime Minister Act Against Zardari

Related Post: The Spin is…It’s Not Afghanistan. It’s Pakistan.

Hours after we asked, "[Is] Washington envisaging a Pakistani military running Islamabad’s policy, either behind the scenes or quite openly after toppling President Zardari?", the Asia Times offers a short-term answer:

Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani (pictured with US General David Petraeus)....met President Asif Ali Zardari for the first time this week --- actually twice --- after returning from Washington, where he had met with senior officials. As a result, a planned crackdown against opposition parties has been shelved.

The newspaper reports that the Punjab Assembly will be reopened; it had been closed after the disqualification of the Chief Minister, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's brother Shahbaz. And, after pressure from Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, Zardari has given up on a plan for mobile law courts. Opposition parties feared these could be used to punish their activists during protests in forthcoming weeks.

The article continues:

On Thursday, Kiani discussed the situation at a meeting with the corps commanders - the heads of the regional army groups - and shared Washington's concerns about governance in Pakistan....This military intervention - and Gillani getting closer to the army - coincides with a drop in Zardari's popularity within his own Pakistan People's Party, the lead party in the ruling coalition.

So, does this mean Zardari is a dead President walking? This is the provocative conclusion of the report:

Although Kiani has become more active, neither the Americans nor the Pakistan army actually wants to change horses in mid-stream. Yet the country is becoming less and less governable under the present arrangement, and quick action is required.

This does not necessarily mean getting rid of Zardari, but he could well be forced to make further concessions to his political rival, former premier and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, by giving him a share of power. If Zardari does not do this, the military's hand could be forced.