Pakistan: A Political Deal for a New Coalition?

Related Post: Chief Justice Chaudhry Reinstated; What Next for Zardari?

Update (23 March): President Zardari has responded to the political manoeuvres with his own call for reconciliation. In an address on Pakistan Day, he asked "everyone to work in the spirit of tolerance, mutual accommodation and respect for dissent and invite everyone to participate in the national effort for ... reconciliation and healing the wounds".

I'm not sure if this development will be noticed in the British and American press, but it could be the sign of a political arrangement for a new coalition Government and the political demise of President Asif Ali Zardari.

The Pakistani newspaper Dawn reports that Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani will meet opposition leader Nawaz Sharif on Sunday with "a message of reconciliation and goodwill". Gilani said that the Pakistan People's Party wanted an arrangement "to strengthen democracy".

Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) responded in kind, saying it has no objection to a coalition government with the PPP in Punjab. Presumably this would include the restoration of Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of the province.

And the striking absence in the Dawn story? Not a word from President Zardari.

The US and Pakistan: Bye Bye President Zardari, But Hello to Whom?

Just over 48 hours after the culmination of the Long March, with the Government's restoration of Pakistani Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, and the story has dropped out of American newspapers. But, of course, this weekend's events were only the beginning of a new, important stage in Pakistani and regional politics.

For many, it is the beginning of hope. Perhaps, after the expression of popular protest, the legal system can be resurrected and placed above personal and party manipulation. Perhaps there can be a scrutiny which would produce a meaningful democracy rather than today's well-connected politician who ascends to the highest office through connections rather than ability and integrity.

In no way do I want to demean that hope, but it moves alongside, and arguably trails behind, more immediate negotiations and manoeuvres after the drama of the last week.

First and foremost, Asif Ali Zardari is effectively Dead President Walking. If this was a showdown for those marching for Chaudhry's restoration, the future of political parties such as the Pakistani Muslim League (N), or a general wish for an ethical politics, it was also Zardari's showdown against his rivals. Trying to maintain a careful balance between the isolation of Nawaz Sharif and the appearance of a Government upholding judicial and political authority, he was putting his case not only in Pakistan but in the US through outlets like The Wall Street Journal.

The problem for the Obama Administration is that Zardari put his battle against Sharif, and indeed Chaudhry, above the battle against insurgency in northwestern Pakistan. An article in The Washington Post, fed by Administration sources, put the case cogently yesterday:

Administration officials are putting the finishing touches on a plan to greatly increase economic and development assistance to Pakistan, and to expand a military partnership considered crucial to striking a mortal blow against al-Qaeda's leadership and breaking the Pakistani-based extremist networks that sustain the war in Afghanistan....But the weakness of Pakistan's elected government -- backed into a corner by weekend demonstrations that left its political opposition strengthened -- has called into question one of the basic pillars of that plan.

The President had thus become secondary to the military commander, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, as he met American counterparts and political leaders in Islamabad, Washington, and Kabul.

At the same time, the US had to move carefully. After all, Washington had been instrumental in supporting Zardari's rise to the Presidency when Benazir Bhutto was assassinated and when General Pervez Musharraf became a liability for American plans. Even if the Pakistani military had become the key link for US officials, the appearance of democracy had to be maintained.

The Long March, with all its good intentions, provided a mini-solution for the Obama Administration. Only 24 hours into the march, the US jumped in through talks with Nawaz Sharif and a blunt call to Zardari --- Washington did not want the President to force a showdown with Sharif. By Saturday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was telling both politicians, "If Pakistan is in such a state of internal political turmoil that U.S. aid can't be used effectively, that's going to limit what can be done and also how successful we are in Afghanistan."

Perhaps more importantly, the Americans appear to have been in close touch with the Pakistani military and security services during the crisis. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, spoke with General Kiani on Friday. The New York Times summarised, "One encouraging sign for Washington was the role played in the crisis by the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who let Mr. Zardari know that he could not rely on soldiers to confront the protesters who were threatening to descend on Islamabad."

We may never know exactly who, if anyone, gave orders to the security forces who let the convoy of Nawaz Sharif slip easily through the cordon of his house arrest, providing support to the growing demonstrations and forcing Zardari's hand. We may never know exactly what was said between the President, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani, and General Kiani at the Sunday morning meeting that conceded the restoration of Chaudhry.

Even murkier, however, is the next step in the relationship between Zardari, his political rivals, his military, and the American sponsors. Even if there is no way back for the President, there is no easy solution to fit Washington's plans. The accession of Nawaz Sharif to power is still an uncomfortable prospect for the US, which has long considered him too close to "conservative" (read that in a political and religious sense) forces in Pakistan and the region. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's backing of Sharif poses the prospect of a battle between Washington and Riyadh for influence over the next steps in both Islamabad and Kabul.

As US envoy Richard Holbrooke bluntly said Monday, the immediate resolution of the Long March "bodes better than the alternative outcome" of disorder and collapse of the Government but "the underlying problem still exists". Having failed to get "stability" with Musharraf, having failed with Zardari, it is not hope that moves Washington but this question:

Who or what can come next?

Pakistan: The Long March of Victory?

12 noon GMT: Imran Khan, the leader of the Tehrik-i-Insaf (Pakistan for Justice) party, has told the media that Supreme Court Chief Justice Chaudhry was "restored by the power of the masses". He called for cases of detentions and missing persons to be pursued by the courts.

10:15 a.m. GMT: Scenes of celebration and dancing at Iftikhar Chaudhry's house. Dawn reporter Musadiq Sanwal writes, "Only thing everybody is saying is that this is beginning of a revolution and they expect a lot more to happen.

Morning Update (5:45 a.m. GMT): The overnight news is stunning. In the early-morning hours, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani addressed the nation and announced the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry (pictured) and almost 50 judges forced from their positions by Pervez Musharraf, President Asif Ali Zardari's predecessor. Hundreds of activists have been released from detention.

On the political front, Gillani confirmed the news that the Government will pursue a review of the court ruling that disqualified the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), Nawaz Sharif, and his brother Shahbaz, the Governor of Punjab, from public office.

Sharif reacted with the statement, "We are now calling off this long march," saying that the decision was made after discussions with lawyers and other political leaders such as Imran Khan. He continued, "Very soon we will play our role in implementing real democracy in this country."

A cautious but welcoming American reaction came through the US Embassy in Pakistan, "This is a statesmanlike decision taken to defuse a serious confrontation, and the apparent removal of this long-standing national issue is a substantial step towards national reconciliation."

The speed of the Zardari Government's concession to its legal and political opponents is almost breath-taking. As late as Sunday morning, the President was holding out against the restoration of Chaudhry, partly because of the legal difficulties it might cause for him, partly because it would hand a notable victory to the political opposition in general and Nawaz Sharif in particular.

Why Zardari gave in will be the subject of speculation today, but his political support was crumbling, with the resignations of former allies such as Information Minister Sherry Rahman as well as leading security commanders. As early as Thursday, Washington had made clear that it wanted a compromise with the opposition, and the presence of the head of the Pakistani military, Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, at yesterday's Zardari-Gillani meetings is a signal that the military was looking for a settlement.

Indeed, according to sources speaking to the Pakistani newspaper Dawn, Kiani's intervention was the catalyst for Zardari's concessions. He told the President and Prime Minister "that they needed to reverse some of the controversial decisions before the situation spiralled out of control....It was after his not-so-veiled warning that the two top civilian leaders agreed to roll back some of the controversial decisions of the previous and present governments."

Pakistan: Day Four of the Long March

9:05 p.m. Geo News reports Chief Justice Chaudhry to be restored to his position in an address by Prime Minister Gillani at 2 a.m. local time.

Gillani is currently meeting President Zardari and General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, the head of Pakistan's military, at the President's residence.

8:30 p.m. Rumours continue to fly: Gillani talking to Zardari by phone, Pakistan Muslim (N) leadership of Shahbaz Sharif to be restored in Punjab province, Saad Hamid to be declared new Chief Justice.

7:45 p.m. The Internet chatter is that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani will soon be addressing the nation on television, possibly to announce the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

3:45 p.m. GMT: Showdown? Nazar Sharif's convoy is nearing Minar-e-Pakistan, the minaret in Lahore's Iqbal Park, where he may address the crowd. Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira has said Long March participants will be stopped by force.2:05 p.m. GMT: No recent updates on #LongMarch #Pakistan via Twitter. Has Government successfully cut communications?

1:30 p.m. GMT: Dawn News is reporting that the Deputy Attorney General in Lahore, Abdul Hayee Gillani, has resigned in protest against police suppression of the protests. Meanwhile, large police contingents have arrived at the Islamabad airport.

12:30 p.m. GMT: Nawaz Sharif has defied house arrest with a convoy attempting to reach the centre of Lahore. Police have blocked the convoy and have been baton-charging protestors and firing tear gas. The latest report is that Sharif has finally reached the centre to lead the Long March.

Aitzaz Ahsan, one of the leaders of the lawyers' movement, has reached the Lahore High Court. Earlier it was reported that Ahsan was under house arrest.  However, Bar Association President Ahmed Ali Kurd has been blocked again by Pakistani authorties, refused admission onto a flight in Quetta.

Morning update (7:30 a.m. GMT): The Government has launched a bold but possibly pre-emptive strike, as
marchers try to reach both Lahore and Islamabad, with the house arrest of Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader Nawaz Sharif in Lahore. Sharif has been ordered to remain in his house for three days.

The effect of the news and of rumours of the arrest of Aitzaz Ahsan, a leader of the lawyers' movement, is uncertain at this point. Roadblocks are being set up in Islamabad and Lahore, and the army has been requistioned to stop marchers.

Mr Obama's War: Pakistan Military, Prime Minister Act Against Zardari

Related Post: The Spin is…It’s Not Afghanistan. It’s Pakistan.

Hours after we asked, "[Is] Washington envisaging a Pakistani military running Islamabad’s policy, either behind the scenes or quite openly after toppling President Zardari?", the Asia Times offers a short-term answer:

Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani (pictured with US General David Petraeus)....met President Asif Ali Zardari for the first time this week --- actually twice --- after returning from Washington, where he had met with senior officials. As a result, a planned crackdown against opposition parties has been shelved.

The newspaper reports that the Punjab Assembly will be reopened; it had been closed after the disqualification of the Chief Minister, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's brother Shahbaz. And, after pressure from Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, Zardari has given up on a plan for mobile law courts. Opposition parties feared these could be used to punish their activists during protests in forthcoming weeks.

The article continues:

On Thursday, Kiani discussed the situation at a meeting with the corps commanders - the heads of the regional army groups - and shared Washington's concerns about governance in Pakistan....This military intervention - and Gillani getting closer to the army - coincides with a drop in Zardari's popularity within his own Pakistan People's Party, the lead party in the ruling coalition.

So, does this mean Zardari is a dead President walking? This is the provocative conclusion of the report:

Although Kiani has become more active, neither the Americans nor the Pakistan army actually wants to change horses in mid-stream. Yet the country is becoming less and less governable under the present arrangement, and quick action is required.

This does not necessarily mean getting rid of Zardari, but he could well be forced to make further concessions to his political rival, former premier and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, by giving him a share of power. If Zardari does not do this, the military's hand could be forced.