The US and Pakistan: Bye Bye President Zardari, But Hello to Whom?

Just over 48 hours after the culmination of the Long March, with the Government's restoration of Pakistani Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, and the story has dropped out of American newspapers. But, of course, this weekend's events were only the beginning of a new, important stage in Pakistani and regional politics.

For many, it is the beginning of hope. Perhaps, after the expression of popular protest, the legal system can be resurrected and placed above personal and party manipulation. Perhaps there can be a scrutiny which would produce a meaningful democracy rather than today's well-connected politician who ascends to the highest office through connections rather than ability and integrity.

In no way do I want to demean that hope, but it moves alongside, and arguably trails behind, more immediate negotiations and manoeuvres after the drama of the last week.

First and foremost, Asif Ali Zardari is effectively Dead President Walking. If this was a showdown for those marching for Chaudhry's restoration, the future of political parties such as the Pakistani Muslim League (N), or a general wish for an ethical politics, it was also Zardari's showdown against his rivals. Trying to maintain a careful balance between the isolation of Nawaz Sharif and the appearance of a Government upholding judicial and political authority, he was putting his case not only in Pakistan but in the US through outlets like The Wall Street Journal.

The problem for the Obama Administration is that Zardari put his battle against Sharif, and indeed Chaudhry, above the battle against insurgency in northwestern Pakistan. An article in The Washington Post, fed by Administration sources, put the case cogently yesterday:

Administration officials are putting the finishing touches on a plan to greatly increase economic and development assistance to Pakistan, and to expand a military partnership considered crucial to striking a mortal blow against al-Qaeda's leadership and breaking the Pakistani-based extremist networks that sustain the war in Afghanistan....But the weakness of Pakistan's elected government -- backed into a corner by weekend demonstrations that left its political opposition strengthened -- has called into question one of the basic pillars of that plan.

The President had thus become secondary to the military commander, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, as he met American counterparts and political leaders in Islamabad, Washington, and Kabul.

At the same time, the US had to move carefully. After all, Washington had been instrumental in supporting Zardari's rise to the Presidency when Benazir Bhutto was assassinated and when General Pervez Musharraf became a liability for American plans. Even if the Pakistani military had become the key link for US officials, the appearance of democracy had to be maintained.

The Long March, with all its good intentions, provided a mini-solution for the Obama Administration. Only 24 hours into the march, the US jumped in through talks with Nawaz Sharif and a blunt call to Zardari --- Washington did not want the President to force a showdown with Sharif. By Saturday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was telling both politicians, "If Pakistan is in such a state of internal political turmoil that U.S. aid can't be used effectively, that's going to limit what can be done and also how successful we are in Afghanistan."

Perhaps more importantly, the Americans appear to have been in close touch with the Pakistani military and security services during the crisis. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, spoke with General Kiani on Friday. The New York Times summarised, "One encouraging sign for Washington was the role played in the crisis by the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who let Mr. Zardari know that he could not rely on soldiers to confront the protesters who were threatening to descend on Islamabad."

We may never know exactly who, if anyone, gave orders to the security forces who let the convoy of Nawaz Sharif slip easily through the cordon of his house arrest, providing support to the growing demonstrations and forcing Zardari's hand. We may never know exactly what was said between the President, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani, and General Kiani at the Sunday morning meeting that conceded the restoration of Chaudhry.

Even murkier, however, is the next step in the relationship between Zardari, his political rivals, his military, and the American sponsors. Even if there is no way back for the President, there is no easy solution to fit Washington's plans. The accession of Nawaz Sharif to power is still an uncomfortable prospect for the US, which has long considered him too close to "conservative" (read that in a political and religious sense) forces in Pakistan and the region. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's backing of Sharif poses the prospect of a battle between Washington and Riyadh for influence over the next steps in both Islamabad and Kabul.

As US envoy Richard Holbrooke bluntly said Monday, the immediate resolution of the Long March "bodes better than the alternative outcome" of disorder and collapse of the Government but "the underlying problem still exists". Having failed to get "stability" with Musharraf, having failed with Zardari, it is not hope that moves Washington but this question:

Who or what can come next?

Pakistan: Day Three of the Long March

4:30 p.m. GMT: It appears that the Zardari Government is trying to reach a settlement with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) party of Nawaz Sharif by announcing that it would file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the disqualification of Sharif and his brother Shahbaz from public office. The PML (N) is not conceding ground, however, on its demand for the restoration of deposed judges.

1:20 p.m. GMT: Despite roadblocks and detentions under Section 144, smaller groups of protestors are making their way to Lahore. Interior Minister Rehman Malik has announced restrictions on protests in the Pakistani capital, notably no processions or sit-ins on Constitution Avenue in the capital city, while claiming to have discussed alternate venues with Long March organisers. He is also warning of the possibility of a suicide or targeted attack at the venue of the Long March sit-in.

An emergency meeting of the ruling Pakistan People's Party has been called for this evening. Earlier rumours of a possible deal between Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif over a Charter of Democracy seem to have been nipped in the bud by the President: "I am not going to negotiate under pressure. Mr Sharif has to abandon the Long March.”

8:15 a.m. GMT: Pakistani authorities have again prevented Ahmed Ali Kurd, the President of the Bar Association, from reaching Lahore. Two days after his convoy was halted, Kurd and his travelling party were not allowed to board a plane.

7:30 a.m. GMT: The Long March is expected to reach Lahore today. Despite the political manoeuvring yesterday pointing to a possible compromise between President Asif Ali Zardari and his opponents, Government forces moved against demonstrators overnight. The Vice President of the Bar Association, Saeed Akhtar Khan, has been put under house arrest.

Zardari has come under further pressure from within his Government, as Information Minister Sherry Rahman, formerly a close ally of the President, resigned. She is reportedly angry over a Government clamp-down on the media, including the closure of private channel Geo News.

Al Jazeera are also reporting angry exchanges between Zardari and the head of the military, Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.

Pakistan: Day Two of the Long March

update (8 p.m. GMT): The Zardari Government has met in emergency session. The President has been joined by Prime Minister Gillani, Senate Chairman Farooq Naek, Interior Minister Rehman Malik, Information Minister Sherry Rehman, and Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf. Spokesmen are promising "important decisions" within 24 hours.

Update (5 p.m. GMT): High-level talks appear to have begun in Pakistan. The reasons for movement are unclear.

One possibility is that a call from US envoy Richard Holbrooke to President Zardari, following a meeting between the US Ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Patterson, and Nawaz Sharif, has pushed the Government to a more conciliatory position. The US and UK have both denied putting any pressure on Zardari to make concessions to the marchers, though Foreign Secretary David Miliband's office have confirmed that he has spoken to Zardari by telephone.

Update (2.30 p.m. GMT): Former Supreme Court Bar Association President Aitzaz Ahsan has said that the Long March will be called off if Iftikhar Chaudhry is reinstated.

Update (1.45 p.m. GMT): Dawn sources claim that President Zardari may have accepted some of the compromises suggested by PM Gilani.

Update (12 p.m. GMT / 5 p.m. Pakistan): There are rumours that PM Yousaf Raza Gilani is pushing for a compromise, and that President Zardari may be willing to yield to some of the marchers' demands. However police have sealed the Punjab-Sindh border and closed highways to prevent the marchers reaching Multan.

Update (9 a.m. GMT): The Pakistani Government has invoked Section 144, the order authorising detention of demonstrators in the Northwest Frontier Provinces, detaining dozens of people.

There were no reports of further arrests overnight. The most significant incident was the blocking of a convoy from Quetta with Ali Ahmed Kurd, the President of the Supreme Court Bar Association. Kurd and the convoy have responded with a sit-in blocking the main highway from Baluchistan to Sindh Province.

UPDATED: The Latest on the Long March in Pakistan

UPDATE (8:30 p.m. GMT): Some of those detained by Pakistani security forces, including Munir Malik, have now been released.

Meanwhile, there is some intriguing political manoeuvring between the Zardari Government and the US. In a pointed signal that Washington was keeping its options open, US Ambassador Anne Patterson met with Nawaz Sharif on Thursday. Then US envoy Richard Holbrooke joined Patterson and President Zardari in a 20-minute phone conversation and "expressed concern over the political turmoil and arrest of political and lawyers....[The] US wanted continuity of democracy in Pakistan so that war against terrorism could be taken to its logical end." Holbrooke urged Zardari to "show restraint" in his handling of the political opposition.

The Long March, organised by lawyers to protest against the policies of the Zardari Government and its interference with the judiciary, began this afternoon in several Pakistan cities. It started in Lahore just over a half-hour after its start time of 12 noon, with 500 lawyers moving toward the High Court. They were soon joined by another 500 peoples, including some with the flags of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and Jamaat-i-Islami, the oldest religious party in Pakistan.

Later in the afternoon, another group of about 2000 protestors began moving from Karachi to Islamabad. The march was led by the lawyers’ movement, including former Supreme Court Bar Association president Munir A. Malik and Sindh High Court Bar Association President Rasheed A. Rizvi, but also includes students and party members from PML (N), Jamaat-i-Islami, and Labour.

Malik, Rizvi, and several other march leaders were detained just over an hour later, and other arrests followed. The total detained is now estimated at 100, and police have baton-charged the marchers. Others have had their bus and car keys confiscated, stranding them at Karachi Toll Plaza.