Iraq: The State of the Elections (Parker and Lynch)

With the full results from Iraq's national election due to be released today, two summaries of the current political situation from Ned Parker of the Los Angeles Times and from Marc Lynch:

Parker

With final results in Iraq's election set to be announced Friday, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki and his secular rival, former Premier Iyad Allawi, are neck in neck in the race to form the next national government.

LATEST UPDATE Iraq Special: The Outcome of the Election — Uncertainty

Whether the results will even stand has been clouded by Maliki's allegations of fraud and a demand for a recount.

Below are the US military's estimates on the final results based on the counting of 95 percent of the votes in the March 7th national election. [Full images can be accessed from Parker's article.] The projections put Maliki's State of Law coalition at 90 seats and Allawi's Iraqiya list at 87 seats.



Maliki's Shiite rivals in the Iraqi National Alliance are projected to win 70 seats and the main Kurdish blocs a total of 56 seats. It is a far-from-comfortable majority for forming the next government and would leave Maliki vulnerable to being unseated.

Lynch:

The final results of Iraq’s elections are yet to be released, but with 95 per cent of the votes counted, it is clear that the contest is a dead heat between the two leading parties – the State of Law list headed by Nouri al Maliki, Iraq’s current prime minister, and the Al Iraqiya list headed by former prime minister Iyad Allawi.

The eventual winner will have the first shot at forming a coalition government, but these negotiations are widely expected to take several weeks, and Iraq’s next government is unlikely to be seated before May. While there is still a real risk that allegations of fraud, or a prolonged electoral deadlock, could trigger contentious or violent protests, the vote in Iraq can still avoid the ignominious fate of recent “decisive elections” in the region, like those in Afghanistan and Iran.

Contrary to the persistent worries of outside observers, Iraq is not unravelling. Indeed, the results suggest that Iraqi nationalism is becoming a more potent force than sectarianism and that most voters have no trouble accepting a strong central government. Both of the leading lists – al Maliki’s Shiite-dominated “party of state” and Allawi’s avowedly nonsectarian alliance – claimed to represent Iraqi nationalism, and both potential prime ministers have reputations for the forceful exercise of state power.
Meanwhile, lists identified with sectarian, Iranian or American interests fared poorly. Prominent symbols of the American-backed Sunni “Awakening” in Anbar ­Province were wiped out in the elections, capturing only a handful of seats. Within the Shiite Iraqi National Alliance, candidates affiliated with Muqtada al Sadr far outpaced those hailing from the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq; while both have ties to Iran, where al Sadr himself resides, ISCI is closer to the leadership in Tehran while the Sadrists tend to be more deeply rooted in the Shiite underclass and to voice a more pugnacious Iraqi nationalism. Mithal al Alousi, a pro-American politician known for his outspoken views, failed to win a single seat. And a number of leading members of the post-2003 ruling elite were undone by the open-list voting system, which allowed Iraqis to select their preferred candidates from among each electoral list rather than accepting the rankings carefully negotiated in advance by party leaders.

The remarkable performance of the Iraqiya list, which is headed by Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, and includes Tareq al Hashemi, the current Sunni vice president, and a number of other leading Sunni political figures, has been the greatest surprise of the election.

Read rest of article....

UPDATED Iran Document: Full Text of Mousavi Speech on "Patience and Perseverance" (15 March)

Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech on Monday to the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, translated by Khordaad 88:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful.

I would like to thank you for being present here. We are currently facing an extraordinary situation. It would have made me happy to see our other friends among you as well –-- friends who are currently in prison, such as Mr.Mirdamadi. [Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of IIPF, has now been temporarily released.]

As a political party, you are better informed of the situation that we are currently in. You are [also well] aware of the restrictions and limitations that the Islamic Participation Front faces. In many countries, the activities of [opposition] parties and other groups are welcomed and encouraged since they provides a means for diagnosing national problems and solving them based on collective reasoning.

Political parties and NGOs are the link between the government and the public and they help to alleviate the image of the state as a fearful entity. Additionally, a large number of economic and social activities occur through these units. NGOs and other associations are a benchmark of development and progress in many countries. Even in countries where the rule of law is prevalent, these [social] entities are necessary to carry out various social, political and economic activities and educate the public. [An uneducated], populist society will not experience proper growth.

Similar institutions have existed in our society and they have traceable historical roots. We have a municipal council, which has played an important role in social preservation. For example, one can refer to the texture and structure of a city like Kashan, which consists of diverse districts with similar institutions. These organizations, funded by donation, helped preserve the city and encourage growth. Another example is the existence of various [religious] groups. In a modern society, these institutions have become particularly important and lead to the formation of political organizations.

Our Constitution evidently stresses and concentrates on the right to organize social gatherings and form [social/political] parties and organizations. Some people mistakenly assume that such organizations are gifts awarded to the people by the government. We mistakenly believe that these organizations should be shaped by the government and delivered to the people while this is a social demand and its prevalence results in a healthy society.

The government should not ban these activities. If the government did not place such severe pressure on people and allowed them to be politically active and form organizations --- without fear of prosecution --- then there would be no need to have demonstrations in the streets. Furthermore, if the government did not use such severe violence and trample on people’s rights, then everyone would remain calm and peaceful during those demonstrations. Unfortunately, over the past nine months, the authorities have been extremely violent towards the protesters and have ignored their right --- this has cost the people dearly. They have truly paid a great price in the violence that we have witnessed.

The situation that we face today, along with that of the Islamic Participation Front, are reason enough for an uprising. If the government had attended to the rights and demands of the people, then there would be no need for them to come to the streets and shout hostile slogans. The people are only demanding that their rights be respected and all the aggression of the past nine months has been the result of violence instigated by the government --- violence which has caused the people to suffer greatly.

In the demonstrations of June 15, 2009, people were mindful of their slogans as well as their compatriots’ safety. Nonetheless, tragedy happened despite the caution. What must constantly be reiterated is the sheer number of people who showed up to participate that day—that is something we must not forget. On that day, the atmosphere was joyful, organized, and peaceful and none of the slogans were hostile.

Unfortunately, the tragic incident that occurred towards the end, changed what was supposed to be a peaceful demonstration into a violent one. However, more attention needs to be paid to the style of that demonstration so that people today (as well as future generations) can learn about the very essence of the Green Movement. What needs to be highlighted is the nature and the source of the Green Movement and perpetually writing articles about June 15th can help us do that.

Fortunately, the people have kept the underlying idea and the spirit alive and over the course of the past nine months have given it considerable attention. Despite the bitter events of the last nine months, people have maintained their spirits as they were on day one, and developed the peaceful and civil aspects of the movement. It is true that we have had our ups and downs, but these are necessary features and they should be treated with vigilance.

Opponents of the movement have attempted to accuse its leaders and thinkers, like members of the Islamic Participation Front, of collusion with places [and groups] that people dislike. There have been different levels of intensity of accusations at different times, but there was [always] pressure. The Islamic Participation Front has been the target of some of the most extreme pressure, and its members have been falsely charged with immorality, which is an accusation that a nation should not accept.

We must not act passively in the face of such insults. We must maintain our balance at every moment that we [are forced to] endure such pressure. I mentioned before, in one of my interviews, that a group used to say that the "Constitutional Revolution" [of the early 20th century in Iran] was to the benefit of the British. In that interview, I responded by quoting Akhond Khorasani, who said: “Whatever we do, it will either benefit the British or the Russians. If that is the case, are we just to sit down and do nothing?” The answer is obviously "no".

We must strategize in a way that is right [and to our benefit] and stop getting distracted by such accusations. We must not act as if we are benefiting one or harming another. We must look to our own [problems] and design our own agendas. We must do what we have to do for ourselves.

One function of these allegations is to make us passive and indifferent; the other is to distance us from the people in a way that ruins the trust and optimism they have [placed] in us. We must not be indifferent and passive towards such issues, insults and analysis.

Recently, a magazine linked Mr. Khatami and the Participation Front to a terrorist from the south of Iran and to [US President] Obama. They have made absurd conclusions, obviously with the purpose of trying to prove that people like Mr. Khatami and members of the Participation Front are rooted to foreign powers.

We must stick with our values and avoid falling into their traps while stressing our core principles and our independence. We should not lose our equilibrium or resort to extremes. We want to shape our foreign relations based on our people’s welfare rather than creating thousands of enemies and losing all of our friends with every single speech. We should not be so adventurous.

One of the blessings that the Islamic Revolution has brought us is our independence and we must not lose it. Of course, we have issues with the outside world, with the United States and Europe, but our foreign relations should be shaped in a way to ensure our nation’s interests and our national security and to preserve our territorial integrity and to ensure our country’s growth and development. Our foreign policy should not be stressful and risky so that we lose the chance of having trusted friends and companions in hard conditions. We should not lose our state of balance because we are under pressure. The truth is that in the past few years the accusation of being in related to foreigners has been constantly used as a weapon for repressing and backlashing (withdrawing) people and intellectual forces from social spheres in our country and this should become clear.

We have been informed that those challenging the Green Movement have grossly distorted the truth about post-election events. They have conjured up a fictional tale --- one that they themselves are starting to believe in—and perpetuate this tale incessantly. In it, the government constructs a role for each party and public figure in order to put a spin on the truth and present events in a way that they benefit the government, not in the way that they actually occurred.

But, let us [now] explore and expose each dimension of this fictional tale. They have created a false picture of the Green Movement and, of course, they want to use this artificial representation to justify their position as well as the violence directed at the clergy and the pious. In their fictional tale, they claim that reformist parties and groups are affiliated with foreign powers. Propaganda based on this fictional tale was printed on flyers that were distributed during the 22nd of Bahman demonstration on February 11, 2010.

These so-called strategies are conjured up behind closed doors. What we need to do is demonstrate that this movement is in no way affiliated with foreign powers and is completely self-serving. We need to constantly emphasize that this movement has no qualms with religion, is aligned with the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, and is trying to rekindle the kind, generous, and just rule of Islam. I will stress that the same aspirations that characterize the Green Movement today were very much present during the fight for the Islamic Revolution (1979) and even earlier than that, during the Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911).

This movement is not against Islam, but arises from the people’s religious views as well as their aversion towards oppression. This movement was born from the Constitution --- that grand legacy, which many of our countrymen have sacrificed their lives for.

The Constitution is a interconnected collection of articles that provide a [coherent] meaning if understood together. People have voted for all of these articles. Therefore we should implement all of it together. We should not take advantage of certain section and ignore others. Doing this is against the will of people who voted for the Constitution as whole and will incur significant damage. To keep a official party from holding a convention is against the constitution and is harmful. In this situation , we should not confine ourselves strictly to [the opinions] of the elite. We should move beyond this and pay attention to other leading and influential groups. We should reach out to teachers, laborers, and all others; we should discuss the current issues with them. If we desire the expansion of this righteous movement, we should reach out to all [social] classes. Another important point is paying attention to the religious feelings of people.

We are all religious, but being religious is not enough. The strong propaganda they have been promoting in society has made some doubtful. Sometimes when I interact with religious clerical figures who know me very well, they assume that behind the scenes, something has greatly changed and that I’ve greatly changed. So I have to talk to them and calmly explain. We must open people’s eyes to the to the lies and propaganda.

Relationships with the clergymen must be expanded and strengthened, at least with those who are ready for this relationship. We must familiarize them with the goals of the movement. Some of the clergymen have come in contact with the movement through the street demonstrations, but nevertheless, they must become more familiar with it. This can nullify the fictional tales told of the Green Movement by the administration. These tales might be believed by those who don’t have access to different sources of information.

If the movement is to go on, it must publicize its goals in all sects and groups in the society and in different cities. Economic issues must be explained for the people. It must be elucidated that to address economic issues and social problems such as the high divorce rate, we must return to the Constitution and uphold its principles. People must feel this. They should not think that the Green Movement is only an angry reaction towards a cheated election. We must marry the Green Movement goals with the aspirations of an advanced and prosperous Iran.

In the coming year we must be patient and show endurance. Though absence of friends such as Mr. Mirdamadi is taxing, their presence in the administration’s prisons has had a noteworthy consequence. I believe that imprisonment is no longer an effective tool to fight the Green Movement. I have prayed on many occasions in the past eight to nine months for the administration to free the political prisoners and remove the restrictions on the press, but my preyers went unanswered. Surely people would not refer to the foreign media nearly as much if we didn’t have so many restrictions on our press and media.

If they [the country’s officials] are wise, they will know that the solution to the country’s problems is not through turning society into a military camp, the solution is in lawful freedom. If they hadn’t shut down the newspapers, if they hadn’t created such limitations, if they had left the environment just the smallest bit open for criticism, people would have left the streets empty. If they had given these minimum freedoms, the government and parliament and the overall ruling establishment would have been stronger. Of course, these freedoms create limitations for those in power, but this benefits the country and the ruling establishment, the ruling system will be stronger both in national and international spheres.

It is very sad that the judiciary which was supposed to be independent, and free of outside influence, is now in a condition where the ministry of intelligence and the IRGC [Revolutionary Guards] dictate who to arrest, who to let go, what verdicts to give … In the early days of the revolution, the High Judicial Council was formed so that no one could order the judiciary around, and unfortunately, this situation changed. It’s not that we don’t have compassionate judges, and in fact, those very compassionate and noble judges feel this oppression more, and suffer as a result. There are many compassionate, noble judges in the judiciary, but that’s not how it looks from the outside. I just hope that there is a turn in the direction the current ruling elite are taking the Islamic Republic. And I hope that in the system, there is a turn towards honoring the Constitution in running the country’s affairs, and a free environment is created so that in its shadow, the country’s problems and crises can be resolved.

In regards to the future, I feel that the movement that has begun is irreversible. We will never again return to the conditions that were a year ago. We have to value these change in ideas. I am very hopeful for the future, we must persuade people towards hope and patience, patience meaning faith. This movement wants nothing for itself, it wants freedom and prosperity and progress and better days for people and it will surely achieve these aims. The move after the election, and the election itself made the people aware of their rights, we must invite people to patience and perseverance. We must name and know the coming year as the year of patience and perseverance. A year of perseverance for the green movement to reach its aims.

The Latest from Iran (11 March): Marathon

1910 GMT: Reuters has picked up Zahra Rahnavard's latest interview, highlighting the line, "I have said many times that this government is illegitimate...but because the government claims to be legitimate, it has to carry out its duties."

1900 GMT: From Washington With... ? We've posted the video of yesterday's "Iran at A Crossroads" conference.

NEW Video: “Iran at a Crossroads” Conference (10 March)
NEW Iran: Gender Issues and the Green Movement
Iran Document: The Hardliners’ Project (Bahavar)
Iran Interview: Habibollah Peyman “Change Through Social Awareness
The Latest from Iran (10 March): The View from Washington

1855 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Readers have rightly noted an apparent lapse in our coverage of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The reformist daily Bahar claimed on Wednesday that, in a clear sign of reconciliation with the regime, Rafsanjani would soon lead Friday Prayers in Tehran. (He has not done so since his 17 July address, which was a catalysts for demonstrations against the Government.)



I saw the story, which was picked up by the Babylon and Beyond blog of the Los Angeles Times, but decided to pass on it. It felt much more like rumour than a confirmed development.

That said, even the rumour deserves noting. Elements within the Government seem keen on establishing that Rafsanjani no longer has any issues with the leadership, so all is now politically well. So far, however, Rafsanjani has been his usual coy self, not confirming any return to the Friday Prayer slot.

1840 GMT: Rahnavard, Women's Rights, and the Green Movement. Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to Kalemeh talking about the relationship between campaigns for women's rights and the initiatives of the Green Movement. (See our separate entry on this subject, which was posted before we read the Rahnavard interview.)

1805 GMT: From Czechoslovakia to Iran. Vaclav Havel, the playwright and activist who was instrumental in the movement that challenged the Communist regime in Czechoslovakia and then became the country's first post-Communist President, has sent a message to Iran's protesters. The occasion was the award of the Homo Homini Award by a Czech NGO to Iranian student activists Majid Tavakoli and Abdollah Momeni:

Of course all of us are interested in Iran's nuclear program and the nature of the current regime, just as we are interested in the abuses committed under the flag of Islam and whether or not the 2009 election was rigged. However, what I am most interested in are the brutal violations of human rights. I found myself in high political position thanks to peaceful public demonstrations and thanks to the students, who led them and made them happen. As a result, I have an elevated sensitivity for certain things and am deeply outraged and shocked that for participating in similar demonstrations in Iran, people are not only being sentenced to several years in prison, but are even being executed. It seems to me like an endless barbarity and I firmly believe this savagery is about to come to an end.

1745 GMT: Escape. It is being reported that student activist Ali Kantouri, recently sentenced to 15yrs in prison, has fled to Turkey.

1525 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. I think former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has taken another swipe at President Ahmadinejad but any impact may be ruled out by Rafsanjani's vagueness in expression. From Radio Zamaneh:

Akabar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council stressed the role of people in governance and maintained that with the growth and spread of media, governments that do not have popular bases can not last long....

Speaking in a meeting of members of municipal councils of Tehran Province, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani said that Islam holds a special place for the role of people in the government.

He added that in democracies, parties that are triumphant in the elections act as buffers and when the elected candidates take a wrong turn, the responsibility falls on the shoulders of the parties and this way the system does not suffer.

He also criticized the policy of limiting the legal powers of city councils saying such policies only weaken the councils and reduce their ability to respond to people’s demands.

1445 GMT: Ain't Nothing Gonna Change. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reviews the Supreme Leader's pronouncement on possible electoral reform, which we noted yesterday), and sees this is a clear rejection rather than an ambiguous response.

1345 GMT: Fist-Shaking. Yet another Iranian military advance which has nothing to do whatsoever with Tehran's power politics vs. the US: Iran has started production of a surface-to-air missile.

President Ahmadinejad added rhetorical colour with the promise that people in the region "would cut (American) hands off of Persian Gulf oil".

However, in a sign that the US still wants to avoid conflict, and possibly establish co-operation, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said Iranian support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is "pretty limited".

1230 GMT: Catching Up.

I've posted a follow-up to the Washington hearing, considering the failure to answer adequately a question on gender issues and the Green Movement.

There is also an important correction: we reported yesterday, from Iranian human rights websites, that Saeed Nourmohammadi of the Islamic Iran Participation Front had been released on bail. His family say, however, that Nourmohammadi has not been freed.

Reports indicate more freeing of political prisoners. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released without bail for Iranian New Year.

The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Like a Lion?

2135 GMT: Rumour of Day. Kalameh alleges that prisoners held in cellblock 209 of Evin Prison have been commanded to fill in forms about their views on election fraud and whether the protest leaders are connected to foreign countries.

2100 GMT: Dr Mohammad Maleki, the former head of Tehran University, has reportedly been released after 191  days in detention. Maleki, 76, suffers from prostate cancer.

Iran: Understanding the Assembly of Experts Statement “Crisis Continues”
Iran Document: Mousavi’s Interview “Reform Within the Current Framework” (27 February)
The Latest from Iran (28 February): What Do The Statements Mean?

2055 GMT: United4Iran has a profile of Jahanbakhsh Khanjani, former advisor to Iran’s Minister of Interior in the Khatami Presidency, who was released on 24 February after spending more than eight months in prison. According to another released prisoner, Khanjani was under pressure to confess and was constantly moved from general confinement to solidarity confinement.


2030 GMT: 2nd Picture of the Day (see 1540 GMT). The staff of Etemaad newspaper just after its suspension (1455 GMT) by Iranian authorities: "Victory".



1935 GMT: Faoud Sadeghi, the managing director of Ayande News, has reportedly been released.

Journalist Mahsa Jazini has been freed on $100,000 bail in Isfehan.

1930 GMT: Khatami Stands Firm. Back from an academic break to find a statement from former President Mohammad Khatami, responding to the Supreme Leader's declaration that opposition figures had put themselves beyond the Iranian system with their post-election challenge. He said in a meeting with students:

It is easy to create tensions in the world, but difficult to eliminate them. Detente requires courage and finesse, and the system has to take steps to that effect. We should not embark on adventurism in the world under pretext of having won so many enemies. We should hold back from speaking in a manner to inflict heavy costs....

Everyone may have had his own interpretation of reforms, but we mean reforms within the framework of criteria born out of Islam, the revolution and the nation's will. In the face of any possible deviation from Islam and Imam Khomeini's line, we have to give warning....

Go and ask the former revolutionary militants if the ongoing conditions reflect what they were after. Ask them if these arrests, blame games, vendettas and the imposition of costs on the nation were what the revolutionary forces sought. If not, our conscience necessitates that we close ranks in order to improve conditions....

We should not retreat from our demands, and we should keep fighting even if certain groups beat us on the head. Unfortunately, certain hard-line groups in the society are opposed to any compromise within the society.

1615 GMT: Really. Not-Very-Much-News. Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has denied, amidst the fuss over the International Atomic Energy Agency report on Tehran's nuclear programme, that there is any problem:

The new chief and the new managers of the agency should look at the record of Iran's cooperation. We have fully cooperated with the agency. This cooperation will continue. We have always welcomed and encouraged negotiations and talks.

1555 GMT: Rigi Mystery. This story isn't over....

Kyrgyzstan’s foreign ministry has issued a statement saying that Iran has officially apologised for forcing a Kyrgyz plane to land in Iran. More significantly, the foreign ministry has denied that any passengers were taken off the plane, including Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, by the Iranians: “According to information available to this ministry, media reports that s two foreigners were arrested in this fight are untrue."

Now, is Kyrgyzstan making the denial to save face and cover up that Rigi was lifted from one of its flights? Or is it the case that the Jundullah leader was never on that plane?

1540 GMT: Picture of the Day. Abdolreza Tajik after his release from prison (see 0945 GMT):



1520 GMT: A Most Symbolic Visit. Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, has visited Ali Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi who was beaten on 22 Bahman.

1515 GMT: Cutting off Business. Caterpillar, the US building equipment group, has announced steps to sever trading links with Iran. The company is barring its non-US subsidiaries from accepting orders for products that they know are destined for delivery to Iran.

1510 GMT: Not-Very-Much-News (from the Other Side). Press TV gives the Iran version:

Iran has called on the UN nuclear watchdog to bear in mind the West's past breaches of atomic fuel exchange deals with Tehran while reviewing Iran's nuclear program.

In a letter to the UN body, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), cited three instances on which Western countries failed to meet their commitments and provide Iran with nuclear fuel.

In other words, Tehran will hold out against a "3rd-party enrichment" deal involving Germany, US, or French authorities because they cannot be trusted.

But (and excuse me for being repetitive)...no mention of Japan as unreliable.

1505 GMT: Stopping the Protests. Rah-e-Sabz claims that 20,000 people were detained during the rallies of 22 Bahman (11 February).

1455 GMT: Back to the (Banned) News. Fars reports that Iranian authorities have banned the weekly magazine Iran Dokht, linked with Mehdi Karroubi. Etemaad has also been suspended.

1445 GMT: Not-Very-Much-News (cont.). Nothing --- yes, nothing --- new in the Amano report to the IAEA. It merely restates the long-standing finding, "[The IAEA] continues...to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran, but we cannot confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities."

This, however, will not stop many in the media from declaring that something dramatic has occurred. The lead from the Associated Press: "The chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency says he cannot confirm that all of Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful."

Nor will it deflect some from overblown declarations and calls to global conflict. Jamsheed Choksy (apologies that you'll have to pay to get the full polemic) in The Wall Street Journal: "Iran's New World Order --- Its nuclear program is part of a larger plan to radically reduce U.S. power."

1430 GMT: Today's Not-Very-Much-News. Back from an academic break to find the media buzzing over the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, with a report from new Secretary-General Yukiya Amano. The section on Iran:

I would like to inform you about the current situation concerning Iran’s request to the Agency for assistance in providing fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, as I receive many questions in this regard.

In June 2009, the Agency received a request from Iran for assistance in obtaining fuel for the research reactor in Tehran, which produces isotopes for medical purposes. In October 2009, at a meeting with the Governments of Iran, France, the Russian Federation and the United States, the Agency made a proposal under which Iranian low enriched uranium (LEU) would be shipped to Russia for further enrichment and then to France for fabrication into fuel. Three of the four countries gave their consent to this proposal.

In a letter to the Agency dated 18 February, 2010, Iran said it continued to wish to buy the necessary nuclear fuel or, if this was not possible, to exchange some of its LEU for reactor fuel from abroad. Iran requested the IAEA to relay its request to potential suppliers and to facilitate the provision of the fuel. The Agency circulated Iran’s letter to Member States as requested.

The arrangement proposed by the Agency in October 2009 remains on the table. I believe it would ensure continued operation of the Tehran Research Reactor and serve as a confidence-building measure. At the same time, I am following up on Iran’s February 18 request, in accordance with the IAEA Statute, and have been in contact with the relevant countries....

Implementation of Safeguards in the Islamic Republic of Iran

You have received my report on Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is longer than previous reports because I wanted my first report to be a stand-alone document. I tried to make it factual, without overdoing the detail.

The Agency continues, under its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with Iran, to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran, but we cannot confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities because Iran has not provided the Agency with the necessary cooperation.

The necessary cooperation includes, among other things, implementation of relevant resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors and the United Nations Security Council, implementation of the Additional Protocol and of modified Code 3.1, as well as clarification of issues related to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme.

I request Iran to take steps towards the full implementation of its Safeguards Agreement and its other obligations as a matter of high priority.

1200 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has declared that her father accepts no bargaining on people's rights and that the only way out of the crisis is to follow the suggestions in his Friday Prayer of 17 July. Replying to the question of why Rafsanjani has not taken the podium at Friday Prayers since then, Hashemi said, “His main reason is not to cause harm to innocent people. In his last sermon, security and intelligence forces attacked protesters and arrested some of them.”

Hashemi, indirectly commenting on last week's Assembly of Experts meeting that Rafsanjani chaired, warned that extremists were trying to unseat Rafsanjani to achieve their goals.

1100 GMT: Claim of the Day. Rah-e Sabz asserts that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has said that the Supreme Leader asked him to execute more protestors.

Larijani was reportedly confronted by his relatives and associates, including Mostafa Mohaghegh-Damad, the former head of the National Audit Office, who were unhappy with the  executions of Arash Rahmanipour and Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani in late January. Larijani replied, “Go and thank God that I have lowered the number of executions.”

Larijani allegedly said that he had attended a meeting at the time  including Khamenei. Ahmad Jannati (head of the Guardian Council), Mohammad Yazdi, and Mohammad Momen Qomi all invoked of the Sharia law demanding that the protesters and the "leaders of sedition" be executed.

Khamenei responded that, although this was their religious opinion, a large number of executions would cause political problems for the regime. He then turned to Larijani saying, “In all honesty we expected more than this [two executions].” Larijani later told associates, “I have tried very hard to keep the number of executions low, as my superiors had asked for more”.

1045 GMT: Following Up the Assembly. The political moves from last week's Assembly of Experts meeting continue, even beyond Mr Verde's Sunday analysis. While the official statement --- once it finally appeared --- pledged loyalty to the Supreme Leader, there has been an overlooked postscript.

The Secretariat of the Assembly has published the report by the Assembly’s Investigation Committee into the circumstances of the Supreme Leader and his fitness to remain in the post, under Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution). The report, dated 27 February, is signed by Mohsen Mojtahed-Shabestari (Assembly member, Khamenei's representative to East Azerbaijan, and Tabriz's Friday Prayer leader.

Although the report is similar to the Assembly's closing statement, the Green website Rah-e-Sabz is celebrating the publication of this report as a victory for public pressure on the Assembly. For the first time, the Supreme Leader's fitness for his post is now a matter of public discussion.

1000 GMT: But You Could Just Watch the Nukes Instead. On the nuclear programme front, it looks like another day of media focus on the rhetorical battle between Iran and members of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA, with a new Director-General, begins a four-day discussion of the draft report on Iran's current uranium enrichment efforts, and the occasion has been preceded by a series of Iranian verbals attacks, including the Supreme Leader's denunciation of a US-controlled IAEA.

The Los Angeles Times, for example, devotes a lengthy article to the political theatre: "[Iran has] dramatically shifted its public tone toward the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, dropping its previous deference while harshly criticizing the agency's latest report and its new director-general as an incompetent and biased lackey of the West."

Amidst the furour, few take any notice of Iran's more conciliatory position accepting Japan as a country for "third-party enrichment", signalled by Ali Larijani during his trip to Tokyo. And none, to my knowledge, consider the ripples of Larijani's changed position across the Iranian political waters.

0915 GMT: And so unfolds another week in a crisis which, according to the regime, was over. Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview continues to command attention and more than a few questions about strategy and prospects for the Green Movement. After initial doubts, I'm tilting towards a more optimistic reading. Because of the importance of the issue, the analysis is still being developed: we're hoping to have it out tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the regime --- which, again, has supposedly won this conflict --- continues to bluster. Basij Commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi, continuing the Government's propaganda drive on the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, declared that President Obama would confess as quickly if he came to Iran:

This pure form of Islam [practiced in Iran] is such that it will even break our staunchest enemies. This thug [Rigi] was nothing, even if Obama himself, who Rigi has confessed to cooperating with, comes to Iran he will also confess to all his sins under the influence of this [pure form of] Islam.

The U.S. and other Western countries have reached a cultural, military, political and economic dead-end and the only weapon in their hands to bully other countries is technology and if we succeed in prying this tool away from them they will be finished.

Far more significant is the news of the regime's freeing of high-profile figures from detention. Saturday and Sunday releases included editors and journalists Ali Hekmat, Abdolreza Tajik (Farheekhtegan), Mashallah Shamsolvaezin (formerly of Kayhan, Jame'eh, Neshat, and Asr-e Azadegan), Behrang Tonkaboni (Farhang va Ahang), and Mohammad Javad Mozafar (publishing house Kavir and vice president of the Committee for the Defense of Prisoners' Rights), and retired science professor Mohammad Sadeq Rabani.

An Iranian activist adds that journalist Rozbeh Karimi was released today and 20 protesters arrested on Ashura were freed from Rejaie Shahr prison in Karaj last night.

It is too early to tell if this is an orchestrated strategy of mass releases by the regime --- an effective "amnesty" if those freed will just shut up, stop writing, and stay off the streets --- but it follows Sunday's carrot-and-stick statement by Tehran prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi (see yesterday's updates). Doulatabadi promises detainee releases on the eve of Iranian New Year but added that those who did not recent would be treated harshly.

The "stick" part of the strategy also has come out in a Rah-e-Sabz report:

Many of those arrested and released over the past few months have been contacted and told to be prepared for interviews, which are subsequently conducted inside Evin Prison....

Interrogators contacted these former prisoners, who have either received their initial verdict or are waiting to receive their verdict, and force them to participate in these interviews. A transcript of the interview is given to the prisoners by their interrogators and they are told to memorize the content and say it in their own words. These former prisoners have been threatened that if they refuse to participate in the interviews they will have to spend the [Iranian] New Year holiday in prison or receive a heavier sentence.

The Jaras [Rah-e-Sabz] reporter said, "Transcripts of these interviews are given to news agencies close to the Reformists and they are forced to publish them. In the recent scenario, aside from the Islamic Student News Agency (ISNA), where prisoners were escorted to upon their release to conduct interviews, Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) has been forced on board [as well]. For the news scenario, the date of the interview is sometimes days or months from the time of the prisoner's release and secondly the exact transcription has been forced on news agencies."

Still, even if the Green Movement could be quelled, the Government faces the trouble within. The latest sign of unhappiness is over the recent 18-minute video, shown on BBC Persian and then spread on YouTube, of the 15 June attack on Tehran University's dormitories. Kazem Jalali, a member of Parliament's "truth-finding committee", has hinted that some colleagues are holding out against an acknowledgement of possible wrongdoing:

It would be better if the members of the truth-finding committee all watch this film....I have followed up on the issue a few time via Mr. [Mohammad-Hassan] Abutorabi who heads the committee. I think you should also ask him this question.

However, the head of the National Security Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, has tried to pre-empt any consideration of the evidence of damage, beatings, and even killings by the attackers, whose exact affiliation with the regime is still unclear: "Since the narrator of the film is the BBC, we must look at the matter with doubt because we do not consider the BBC a reliable source."