Middle East Inside Line: Earthquake in Turkey, Israel-Palestine Proximity Talks, Israel's Suspicions of US

Earthquake in Turkey: At least 41 people are dead and about 100 are wounded in the eastern Turkish province of Elazıg early Monday after a 6.0-magnitude earthquake.

Israel-Palestine "Proximity Talks:" On Sunday, the Palestine Liberation Organization's executive committee approved a proposal allowing the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to begin indirect negotiations. However, there are two conditions for the four months of indirect talks: the outlines of a border deal with Israel and a complete Israeli settlement construction freeze.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will arrive in Israel on Monday afternoon. U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell is still in Israel, and he is expected to have another meeting with PM Benjamin Netanyahu before going to Ramallah on late Monday. After their meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu said: "If there is a desire to get to direct talks through a corridor, then I think the sooner the better."

On Sunday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak declared that Netanyahu would have to "make some difficult decisions" to advance the Middle East peace process:

I hope that these discussions will advance the political process with the Palestinians in a manner that will enable a quick resumption of actual negotiations on core issues that will result in an agreement.

Israel's Carrot and Stick for Palestine: Palestinian officials have been warned by Israel that they must fight violence in West Bank protests, reduce incitement over Jerusalem's Temple Mount, and curtail its campaign against the use of Israeli products.

Israel's Suspicion over Washington: A secret internal Foreign Ministry report distributed to Israeli diplomatic missions abroad declares that  the US administration will not put  much effort into the upcoming indirect negotiations, opting instead to focus on November's Congressional elections. The report adds:

Recent American statements point to the adoption of wording in line, even if partially and cautiously, with Palestinian demands in regard to the framework and structure of negotiations. Still, the [U.S.] administration is making sure to avoid commenting on its position on core issues.

Middle East Inside Line: Mitchell Arrives, East Jerusalem Protests, Hamas's Shrinking Power?

Mitchell in the Region: On Saturday, U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell met Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Tel Aviv. He will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday.

Before any formal shaking of hands, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas escalated the rhetoric. In contrast to his acceptance of four months of "proximity talks",  Abbas said that "the peace process has almost reached a dead end" because Netanyahu has refused to stand by compromise offers made by his predecessor. Abbas continued:

UN’s Top Gaza Official: “Israel Creating Generation of People Nourished on Despair”

Despite a temporary, partial freeze on building in the West Bank, the expansion of Israeli settlements, as well as an Israeli heritage plan announced last month to include West Bank religious sites threaten ... to open the door to a dark future that awaits us all.


The Israeli government continues to procrastinate to gain time and strengthen its control of the occupied territories to prevent any realistic possibility of establishing an independent, viable ... state of Palestine.

In response, Netanyahu not only dismissed calls for Israel to give up control of all of Jerusalem, but he said that an early deal for a Palestinian state is unlikely, given the strength of Abbas' rivals in Hamas.

Demonstrations in East Jerusalem: About 5,000 left-wing activists and Palestinians gathered Saturday to protest the eviction of four Palestinian families in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem. The demonstration was peaceful. Protesters carried Palestinian flags and chanted "Stop the destruction of homes" and "There is no sanctity in an occupied city."

Hamas Losing Control?: According to the London-based newspaper A-Sharq Al-Awsat, Hamas's senior military commander Ahmed Jabri has admitted losing control in Gaza in a letter to Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal. He said that "recently a series of explosions has raised fears in Gaza" and "Gaza had descended into anarchy".

Jabri allegedly claims Hamas is convinced that extremist "jihadi" Islamist movements are behind the bombings.

Haaretz's Middle East Security Survey adds:

The recent calm on the Israel-Gaza border could be deceiving. Hamas is not firing rockets into Israel and is also preventing more radical groups from launching rockets. At the same time, Hamas is coping with the domestic threat posed by radical groups that identify with Al-Qaida. Recent reports from Gaza indicate that these groups are getting stronger, at the expense of Hamas.

It is possible that Israel, which until now has viewed Hamas as its biggest enemy in Gaza, needs to take into account that within a couple of years Hamas will be the moderate force in Gaza protecting the calm while a monstrous and more dangerous threat is growing in the form of the ultra-radical groups.

Middle East Inside Line: US Warns Palestine, New Israel Proposal on Iran, Turkey's Reaction to US "Genocide" Resolution

USWarning to the Palestinian Authority: According to a document sent by Washington to the Palestinian Authority and obtained by Haaretz on Friday, the Obama Administration will assign blame and take action if indirect talks fail due to one side's fault. After clearly stating Washington's position for "a viable, independent and sovereign Palestinian State with contiguous territory that ends the occupation that began in 1967", the report continues:

We expect both parties to act seriously and in good faith. If one side, in our judgment, is not living up to our expectations, we will make our concerns clear and we will act accordingly to overcome that obstacle.

Lieberman's Proposal to Washington on Iran: Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Thursday that he doubted the United Nations would follow through with Western demands for harsher sanctions over Iran's contentious nuclear program, and he urged the United States to impose an embargo similar to the one it has held on Cuba for the last 50 years. He claimed that the Iranian regime would collapse in a year with such an embargo. Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon is flying to Washington on Monday to present the foreign minister's proposal.

Turkey's Reaction over US Votes Condeming Armenian "Genocide": On Thursday, the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee voted 23-22 to call the World War I-era killing of Armenians "genocide". Minutes after this vote, passing the resolution to the full House, Namik Tan, the Turkish Ambassador to Washington, was withdrawn, and Washington's ambassador to Ankara, James Jeffrey, was called to the Foreign Ministry for talks. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "We expect the US administration to, as of now, display more effective efforts. Otherwise the picture ahead will not be a positive one."

Both Barack Obama and Jeffrey expressed their displeasure with the vote; however, Ankara continues to declare this is a matter of "honour".

At the press conference, when asked whether consequences might include the withdrawal of soldiers from Turkish Afghanistan or the closure of the American base at Incirlik, Davutoglu said: "Of course, we will evaluate the situation as the Government. We will also talk to our President and the opposition."

However, a diplomatic source from Israel said that Ankara did not turn to West Jerusalem for help in Washington to fight the resolution.

Middle East Inside Line: Palestine-Israel Dialogue?; Britain & Arrest Warrants for Israelis; China & Iran

Indirect Israel-Palestine Dialogue: On Wednesday, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, found political cover to enter into an indirect dialogue with Israel, as 14 ministers of the Arab League agreed in Cairo that the PA should engage in indirect negotiations with Israel for a preliminary four-month period. The Arab ministers also mentioned that no progress will be possible without a complete settlement freeze, indicating that the four months will be an assessment process.

"Despite the lack of conviction in the seriousness of the Israeli side, the committee sees that it would give the indirect talks the chance as a last attempt and to facilitate the US role," said Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa.

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Following the news from Cairo, a senior U.S. official said that special envoy for the Middle East George Mitchell will travel to the region over the weekend to see if Israel and the Palestinians are ready to begin indirect peace talks. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton added: "We were very pleased by the endorsement that came out of Cairo today. (We) are very committed to try to bring about the two-state solution and we hope the proximity talks will be the beginning of that process."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the decision of the Arab league and said:

It seems that the conditions are ripening for the renewal of negotiations between us and the Palestinians.

In the Middle East you need two to tango, but it could be that we need three to tango and we might need to leapfrog at first but the obstacle isn't and never was Israel.

On Thursday, Haaretz learned that Mitchell will land in Israel on Saturday night and both parties will declare the beginning of indirect talks on Monday, as US Vice President Joe Biden arrives.

However, Haaretz reports that Israeli President Shimon Peres, in his private conversations with various political figures, has been saying that Netanyahu is restricted because of Israel's right wing in moving forward, so the Prime Minister should offer a good deal to the "centrist" Kadima opposition to join the coalition. In response, one of  associates said: "Even if [Avigdor] Lieberman is forced to resign, Bibi won't name a replacement as foreign minister."

Britain to Block Arrest Warrants Against Israel's Officials: On Thursday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced plans to stop politically-motivated campaign groups from securing arrest warrants for visiting foreign officials. Brown wrote in The Daily Telegraph: 

Britain will continue to take action to prosecute or extradite suspected war criminals - regardless of their status or power... But the process by which we take action must guarantee the best results. The only question for me is whether our purpose is best served by a process where an arrest warrant for the gravest crimes can be issued on the slightest of evidence.

A statement from the office of former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who faced a British warrant, said:

The British legal system has been abused by cynical elements in the United Kingdom. This is important news for every country in the Free World which is fighting terror.

China Reject Sanctions on Iran: Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gan said on Thursday, "We've been making diplomatic efforts and we believe they have not been exhausted, and we will continue to work with other parties to push for a settlement to this issue."

Middle East Inside Line: Netanyahu's Iran Speech, Obama's Next Middle East Message, Syrian-Israeli Peace?, and More...

Netanyahu's Iran Speech: Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Tuesday depicted Iran as a runaway train and the international community as a rail car waiting on the edge. "There is a technological clock and a diplomatic clock. The technological clock is like a runaway train and the international community like a car that is about to decouple."

On the diplomatic clock, Netanyahu mentioned the Israeli delegation in China and described a "wide range of mutual interests" between Beijing and Israel. Netanyahu stated that he was not successful in obtaining Moscow's consent to tougher sanctions on Tehran but said he witnessed "more understanding there regarding the dangers the Iranian nuclear program poses to us, to regional peace and world stability".

Obama Administration's Next Message to be in Israel: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is due in Israel on March 8, for a three-day visit that will also include the Palestinian Authority. An Israeli political source has told Haaretz that Biden would like "to make a speech that is important and significant for Israeli-American relations". The aims of this high-level visit to Israel are to ensure that Israel's response will be restricted with the diplomatic track and to give a strong "alliance" message to Israelis as President Obama gave in Turkey and Egypt last year.


Syrian-Israeli Agreement on Phased Withdrawal Plan?: Gabrielle Rifkind, the director of the Middle East Program at Oxford Research Group, told Haaretz via e-mail that Syria is willing to consider peace and gradual normalization with Israel. According to this plan, following an Israeli withdrawal from half the territory it holds on the Golan Heights, the two states would declare an end to the state of enmity between them as a first step.

Although Syrian officials insist on pressing ahead through Turkey's mediation, Rifkind emphasized the importance of Damascus in the region:

From a conflict resolution perspective, reaching out to Syria will involve bold steps, and experience would suggest that if Syria and Israel managed to establish an agreement on the Golan, the view from the leadership may be significantly different. There could be a potential role for Syria as a mediator between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah which could drastically improve the chances of a long-term truce - or even a permanent resolution - between these parties.

Hamas Disowns Yousef: After it was released that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of one of Hamas's founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, had worked for Israel's security service Shin Bet; Hamas Web sites published a letter saying the father disowned his son on Monday.

IDF Blacklisting Israelis?: It has been reported that the details of license plates of a number of left-wing activists during demonstrations at the villages of Bil'in and Na'alin were given to IDF by Israeli police. In the document entitled "Data of vehicles used by left-wing Israeli activists and anarchists to reach demonstrations in Na'alin and Bil'in", registration numbers of 11 vehicles are listed. The IDF did not deny the report and said the organization is using information on Israelis who demonstrate against the separation fence.

Hamas Accuses Egypt & Jordan: Hamas has reportedly claimed that the security forces of an Arab state were behind the assassination of a senior group operative in Dubai. Mahmoud Nasser, a member of Hamas' political bureau, said that agents from Jordan and Egypt took part in the assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.