Iran & the US: The Missed Nuclear Deal (Slavin)

For me, Barbara Slavin's article in The Washington Note confirms my view of the uranium enrichment negotiations since June between Tehran, Washington, and other countries: 1) they were genuine, motivated by Iran's crisis of a shortage of 20-percent enriched uranium for its medical research reactor; 2) the primary obstacle to a deal was internal divisions in Washington Tehran.

But now the questions for March 2010: 1) Is there still a crisis in Tehran over uranium stock? (Yes) 2) Does this mean the regime wants to re-open discussions for a deal? (Probably, but  there are still internal manoeuvres to be made) 3) Will the US still be receptive? (Likely) 4) Does this mean "engagement" is back on? (Unknown):

The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

A senior U.S. official Wednesday confirmed that the United States offered the first civilian nuclear cooperation with Iran in three decades under the terms of a deal that Iran walked away from last fall.



Daniel Poneman, Deputy Secretary of Energy, said that had Iran accepted the deal --- under which it would have shipped out two thirds of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium for further processing abroad --- the U.S. would have inspected a 40-year-old reactor in Tehran to see if it was operating safely.

"We would have been well disposed to be helpful," Poneman said at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "We were willing in support of IAEA efforts ... to help assure that the Tehran research reactor was safe."

Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, told reporters after the meetings with Poneman in October that "one of the aspects in addition to the fuel is the control instrumentation and safety equipment of the reactor" and that "we have been informed about the readiness of the United States in a technical project with the IAEA to cooperate in this respect."

A U.S. official said on background that the United States would examine the reactor, provided to Iran in the late 1960s when Lyndon Johnson was president and the Shah ruled Iran. However, Poneman's remark was the first on the record confirmation of this.

This deal sweetener was well received by those close to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and allowed him to cast the package in a positive light.

Iranians much prefer U.S. technology to Russian nuclear knowhow. Some Iranians suggested that U.S. assistance might extend to the Bushehr reactor if a deal could be struck on the LEU. Bushehr, which was begun by the Germans in the Shah's time, is now a "mess," one official told me, a "hodge-podge of technologies" that Iran is afraid to run because it might "blow up."

Ahmadinejad's numerous opponents within Iran's complex political hierarchy attacked the LEU deal as a sell-out -- in large part because he had undercut their efforts to reach a nuclear understanding with the United States in the past.

Poneman said Wednesday that the offer remained on the table. Beyond the U.S. examination of the reactor, Russia and France would further refine 1200 kilograms of Iran's low-enriched uranium and turn it into fuel rods for use in the research reactor, which produces medical isotopes for treatment of cancer and other ailments and is due to run out of fuel by the end of this year.

"It has not been formally withdrawn," Poneman said of the deal. However, he confided later that the U.S. is "not chasing Iran" and that the Iranians know who to call if they are interested in coming back to the table. Otherwise, the United States will keep moving down "the pressure track" to increase the cost to Iran of its nuclear defiance, he said.

The Latest from Iran (10 March): The View from Washington

2305 GMT: Back on the Road Again. Off for flight to UK and work in Liverpool so will be quiet for a while. Thanks to everyone for backing up EA on an eventful day.

2300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student activist and weblog writer Fouad Shams has been released from prison after 96 days. Saeed Nourmohammadi, a member of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has been freed after 4 1/2 months in detention.

NEW Iran Interview: Habibollah Peyman “Change Through Social Awareness”
Iran Analysis: Corruption Within the Government?
The Latest from Iran (9 March): Political Acts

2255 GMT: Maintaining Control. Radio Zamaneh headlines, "Iran's Supreme Leader May Approve Changes to Electoral Policies", but the more you read, the more this is an assertion of Khamenei's authority rather than reform.

Meeting members of the Assembly of Experts, the Supreme Leader said that he will approve the changes in “general policies of the elections” under discussion in the Expediency Council, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

However, Khamenei added that the opinion of the Expediency Council regarding election policies is “debatable”, and once he is informed of their decision, he will enforce what he deems necessary. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Council's moves for change.....


2240 GMT: Economy Watch. It's not the headlines over the sanctions that should be garnering attention; instead, keep an eye on the companies ceasing business with Iran.

Royal Dutch Shell has announced that it has stopped selling gasoline/petrol to Iran which, despite its oil reserves, is dependent on imports to meet domestic demand. Shell still receives revenues from an oilfield deal completed in 2005. (The New York Times also reports that Shell "has a natural gas development in the works" but --- and here is where a Washington conference comes in useful --- informed insiders say there is little likelihood of the project moving ahead in the foreseeable future.)

Ingersoll-Rand, a manufactuer of air compressors and cooling systems, has also said that it will no longer allow its foreign subsidiaries to sell parts or products to Iran.

2230 GMT: More In-Fighting. Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari, in an editorial “Outrageous Overstatement”, has gone after Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for his recent “base,” “hyperbolic”, and “pompous” remarks. Shariatmadari accused Rahim-Mashai of seeking to undermine the presidency, distort the principle of velayat-e-faqih (clerical authority), and cause rifts among the principlists.

2225 GMT: Watch This Closely. Earlier this week Mr Verde picked up on the challenge of the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that he was going to root out corruption in the Government and punish those responsible, including a high-ranking official.

Well, Sadegh's got back-up from the Parliament that his brother Ali heads:

A majority of Iranian lawmakers have asked Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani to decisively deal with the case of a major ring of corrupt government employees.

Larijani announced on Sunday that the judicial system had arrested 11 members of a ring of corrupt employees who embezzled millions of dollars by forging government documents.

Ayatollah Larijani stated that 11 key members of the ring have been arrested and all of them have made confessions.

In a letter sent to the Judiciary chief on Wednesday, 216 MPs also thanked him for his efforts to ensure that the members of the gang were arrested.

But the MPs said that based on the available information, the embezzlement ring has been active in more than one state organization and therefore the rest of its members should be tracked down and arrested.

They said they have been informed that certain people with high-ranking positions played more active roles in the ring than those who have been arrested.

The lawmakers urged Larijani to deal with all the members of the ring, regardless of their positions.

"Certain people with high-ranking positions"? First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, by chance?

2200 GMT: Back from a most interesting day of Iran panels. Hoping to collect thoughts for an analysis, but I'm very tired. So, for now, thanks a million to everyone for all the great support.

1300 GMT: March on Washington. I'm off to Capitol Hill to see some folks about Iran. We'll be on the road for awhile, so keep us up-to-date with developments by posting in our Comments section.

1220 GMT: We have posted the thoughts of Dr Habibollah Peyman, the head of the banned Movement of Combatant Muslims, on the strategy of the Green Movement.

1115 GMT: Kiarostami Speaks Out. The prominent Iranian director Abbas Kiarostami has published an open letter in a Tehran newspaper calling for the release of Jafar Panahi and Mahmoud Rasoulof, fellow directors who were detained last week.

Kiarostami has also sent an English translation thorough a friend to The New York Times, which prints the text.

1105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English summarises news of a series of releases on bail:

Emad Bahavar, member of reformist group Nehzat-e Azadi [Freedom Movement of Iran] , and Yashar Darolshafa, a student activist, were released last night.

Political activist Mehrdad Rahimi was released last night after posting a $70,000 bail. Rahimi, who was arrested over two months ago, was under pressure to submit to confessions on live television.

Political activist Hamideh Ghasemi, journalist Ahmad Jalali Farahani, and Saleh Noghrekar were also released after a month in prison.

Saleh Noghrekar is the nephew of opposition leader, Zahra Rahnavard. He was released on a $50,000 bail.

Mehdi Amizesh, children’s rights activist, was also released on bail after two months in prison.

1055 GMT: Mahmoud Knocks, K arzai Not at Home. Here is the not-so-dramatic of the saga of President Ahmadinejad saying he would go to Afghanistan on Monday (Sunday), Ahmadinejad not going to Afghanistan (Monday), Ahmadinejad saying "oh, I meant Wednesday" (Tuesday).

Well, the good news is that the President finally got to see Kabul's sights, and Hamid Karzai is one of them. Initial reports indicated that the Afghanistan President was not at home, but the two men finally showed up at a press conference.

With US Secretary of Defense Gates still in Afghanistan --- his visit with Karzai on Monday was the likely reason for the postponement of Ahmadinejad's trip --- the Iranian President took a swipe at Washington, "I believe that they themselves are playing a double game. They themselves created terrorists and now they're saying that they are fighting terrorists." Gates had put out the "double game" charge against Tehran earlier in the week.

1045 GMT: I Don't Even Like the Guy. If Jahan News was trying to undermine Mehdi Karroubi with the claim that he was very nice to Saeed Mortazavi, the Ahmadinejad aide who has been blamed for the post-election abuses at Kahrizak, the effort does not appear to have worked. Karroubi hasn't reacted, but Mortazavi is more than a bit upset. His office put out this statement:

Mr. Mortazavi attended a memorial service held for the mother of his colleague in Nour Mosque on Saturday....Mr. Mehdi Karroubi was present at the beginning of the ceremony and left approximately half an hour before Mr. Mortazavi arrived. Therefore, Mr. Karroubi and Mortazavi never encountered each other.

It is not clear what the intentions of this website was in reporting the warm exchange of pleasantries and kisses between these two individuals [Karroubi, Mortazavi]. The intention to disseminate such false news reports is also a matter to reflect upon.

The son of Mr. Karroubi was one of the suspects the former Tehran prosecutor [Mortazavi] dealt with and the Etemade Melli newspaper owned by Mr. Karroubi was banned by him therefore such fabricated stories aimed at influencing public opinion will have no success.

0450 GMT: We're off for some downtime before the Wednesday conference. Back in a few hours.

0435 GMT: The War on Football. Yesterday we noted that Iranian authorities had issued a warning, for an unspecified reason, to a football publication.

Well, here's an even more serious football story from Iran Human Rights Voice:

Football journalist Abdollah Sadoughi was arrested in the city of Tabriz, north-west Iran, on 18 January, after publishing a poster supporting the city’s Traktor Sazi football team. He is held without charge at Tabriz prison, and is on hunger strike in protest at what he considers to be his baseless detention....

Abdollah Sadoughi, aged 33, a member of Iran’s Azerbaijani minority, writes for the Iranian publications Goal, Corner and Khosh Khabar (Good News). He supports Tabriz’s Traktor Sazi football team. The authorities have accused him of acts “against national security” including supporting “Pan-Turkism” for publishing posters, one of which says, in the Azerbaijani Turkic language, “All of Azerbaijan feels pride with you”, alongside an image of the football team. Abdollah Sadoughi maintains he had permission from the relevant authorities to print posters [but] Azerbaijani Turkic is not recognized as an official language in Iran....

In late February, Abdollah Sadoughi began a hunger strike. According to media reports, soon after starting his hunger strike he was transferred to solitary confinement and held in filthy conditions, and then moved to a cell with criminal convicts. On 2 March 2010, having lost considerable weight and suffering from various medical problems, he was transferred to the clinic within Tabriz prison. Abdollah Sadoughi has been able to meet his lawyer and his family, most recently on 6 March, when he said he would continue his hunger strike until he is released or brought before a court.

0430 GMT: Does the Movement Live? Mohammad Sadeghi offers a spirited response to those who claimed 22 Bahman (11 February) marked the end of the Green Movement:

Any measure of the movement's success must focus on the incredible changes brought about in Iran thus far, rather than the outcome of specific tactics. Conversations on the proper role of government, which would have been unthinkable less than a year ago, are now commonplace throughout the country. The government is constantly on the defensive on issues ranging from sexual abuse in prisons to its failed economic policies. Although the regime maintains tight control over all levers of power in society -- police and security forces, the media, the oil industry, etc. -- its popular support has been steadily slipping since June's presidential election. These changes have taken place because of the millions of Iranians who see it as their duty to peacefully protest in the streets, document the regime's brutality, and spread this documentation around the world. In other words, the movement owes its greatest successes to the horizontal organization and innovative use of technology that [critics are] so quick to dismiss.

0315 GMT: Now in place in Washington for Wednesday's open hearing on Iran and US-Iran relations. Will get an insider's look later today but already one point of note has emerged: the Ali Larijani mission to Japan for a possible uranium enrichment deal should be taken seriously.

That impression is accompanied by signals from Iranian state media of confidence that the push for tougher international sanctions on Tehran will fail. Under the headline, "Anti-Iran plot failing, Israeli envoy laments", Press TV carries Agence France Presse's quotation from Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gabriela Shalev: "The chances now seem grim regarding sanctions that will be crippling." Shalev said Russia and China "are still looking to the diplomatic track" and appear reluctant to back a new round of sanctions.

Back in Iran, the trial of 12 police officers charged with post-election abuses in Kahrizak Prison has begun.

Europe Watch: French Warships to Russia

On Wednesday Russia, fulfilling an agreement in principle reached four weeks ago, announced that it plans to buy four Mistral-class warships from France.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that, with the first deal between a NATO member and a former Soviet state, he wanted to turn the page on the Cold War; Russia must be a partner, not a threat. Sarkozy added that the deal will build trust at a time when West is seeking Russian support on issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme:

Can we say to President Medvedev in the morning, "Ah, I trust you, vote with us at the Security Council, work with us on the same resolution against Iran," then in the afternoon, tell him, "No no, excuse us, as we don’t trust you and we don’t work together — we won’t send you the Mistral?

The Mistral-class ships can deploy 16 helicopters, four landing barges, and up to 70 armoured vehicles, including 13 battle tanks, and 450 troops.

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania expressed their concerns about Russia’s intentions. Estonia’s military chief of staff, Lieutenant General Ants Laaneots, said, "We don't know what they are going to do with a Mistral, are they going to keep them in the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, the northern fleet?" Harri Tiido, the undersecretary for political affairs at the Estonian Foreign Ministry, argued, “Definitely, it would not add to the security of the region. And I think the nations around the Baltic Sea in that case would have to see what they have to do to change their defense planning, maybe; but also, it could influence the defense planning of NATO." Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili declared that the sale is a threat for his country and Eastern Europe.

Some concerns emphasized Russia's new strategic doctrine on NATO, which labels the expanded alliance a threat, and a Baltic war-games scenario last year that included a pincer operation cutting off Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Francois Heibourg, an adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, while noting that Russia's demand is understandable, assessed, “The Mistral is a considerable strategic tool: Russia's power projection capability will be much increased in the Black Sea, the Baltic, and even far into Asia."

Iran Interview: The State of Tehran's Nuclear Programme (Cirincione)

Joseph Cirincione, the President of the Ploughshares Fund on nuclear weapons policy and conflict, talks to Claudio Gallo of La Stampa:

GALLO: Is Iran really trying to build a nuclear weapon?

CIRINCIONE: There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is moving to acquire the technologies that would allow it to build a nuclear weapon. We do not know if the regime has reached a decision to actually build a weapon, however.



It may make strategic sense for Iran to stop at the edge, that is, to have the uranium enrichment capability, to have secretly done design work, and to have a missile capable of carrying a warhead, but not actually build a bomb. This would give it many of the advantages of a nuclear-armed state, without provoking an attack and perhaps delaying its neighbors from reacting with their own nuclear weapon programs.

GALLO: Do you think that stress over Iran's negotiating position may point to the fact that its uranium stockpiles are ending?

CIRINCIONE: Iran does not have enough known uranium reserves to fuel its current enrichment plant at Natanz for very long. It certainly does not have enough to fuel the 10 new enrichment plants it claims it will build. But the most likely reason why the government first accepted, then rejected the uranium swap is that the regime is in crisis. It cannot get the consensus it needs to either accept or completely reject the deal.

GALLO: The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Larijani, said recently that "based on terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency has no right to urge Iran to suspend its nuclear activities". Why is the West saying that Larijani is not right?

CIRINCIONE: By its own admission, Iran misled the IAEA for over 15 years. It is clearly in violation of its obligation under the NPT to report its nuclear material activities and the existence of all its nuclear material facilities. The overwhelming majority of the nations that make up the IAEA board of governors and the UN Security Council found that Iran was and still is in violation of its treaty obligation. Under the terms of the treaty, the Security Council has the right --- in fact, it has the obligation --- to ask Iran to stop its nuclear activities until Iran's good faith can be restored. Few outside of Iran dispute this basic fact.

GALLO: In the last IAEA report, they quote an Iranian study about a nuclear missile warhead. It seems that the source of that report is the same stolen laptop that since 2005 appears at intervals on western newspapers: what do you think about this?

CIRINCIONE: This is the least clear claim. The documents on the laptop do seem to be the source of this claim. It still is not clear where the laptop came from. But Iran has yet to provide any clear answers to the IAEA. Iran has just refused to answer the IAEA's questions. This raises suspicions and seems to support the claim that Iran was doing such research.

GALLO: In May 2009, you were one of the experts, American and Russian, that wrote the report "Iran Nuclear and Missile Potential": it says that Iran, if it decides, may build a nuclear warhead in six to eight years. Is that conclusion still valid?

CIRINCIONE: Since we wrote the report, the time frame for Iran building a nuclear warhead has reduced somewhat. It could probably build a small nuclear bomb in 1-2 years. It would likely take an additional few years to test the device and perfect a warhead that could fit on one of its Shahab missiles. The main reason for the decreasing time frame is Iran's production of enough low-enriched uranium that could be reprocessed into high-enriched uranium for a bomb.

GALLO: And then there is the technical difficulty to build a working IRBM [Intermediate Ballistic Range Missile]....

CIRINCIONE: Iran now has short- and medium-range missiles that can travel as far at 2000 km. It is a major challenge to build a IRBM that could fly 3000-5500 km. This is currently beyond Iran's technical capability.

GALLO: Recently on The Huffington Post, the former Deputy Director General of the IAEA, Bruno Pellaud, wrote that Iran's regime is consciously provoking an attack against nuclear facilities. Do you think it is possible?

CIRINCIONE: The regime is in turmoil. It is not clear how long it can survive. The Revolution Guard would like to change this dynamic. It is possible that the Iranian Revolution Guard is trying to provoke Israel into striking Iran. This would allow them to rally the Iranian public in defense of the nation.

GALLO: President Ahmadinejad said that Israel will attack Iran in spring or summer: do you think that Israel could attack without the American green light?

CIRINCIONE: Possibly, but very unlikely. The US military does not want to start a third war in the Middle East. JCS [Joint Chiefs of Staff] Chairman [Admiral Mike] Mullen said this week that such an attack would have "unintended consequences".

GALLO: Russia's Chief of the Army Staff, General Nikolai Makarov, warned that an American attack on Iran now, when the US is bogged down in two wars, might well lead to the collapse of the United States. Is this an old-style Russian "provokazia" [provocation] or it makes some sense?

CIRINCIONE: Not the collapse, but great turmoil, and it may unite the Muslim world against the US. Many Muslim governments would like to see the US strike Iran, but the Muslim publics would likely be enraged.

Middle East Inside Line: Netanyahu's Iran Speech, Obama's Next Middle East Message, Syrian-Israeli Peace?, and More...

Netanyahu's Iran Speech: Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Tuesday depicted Iran as a runaway train and the international community as a rail car waiting on the edge. "There is a technological clock and a diplomatic clock. The technological clock is like a runaway train and the international community like a car that is about to decouple."

On the diplomatic clock, Netanyahu mentioned the Israeli delegation in China and described a "wide range of mutual interests" between Beijing and Israel. Netanyahu stated that he was not successful in obtaining Moscow's consent to tougher sanctions on Tehran but said he witnessed "more understanding there regarding the dangers the Iranian nuclear program poses to us, to regional peace and world stability".

Obama Administration's Next Message to be in Israel: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is due in Israel on March 8, for a three-day visit that will also include the Palestinian Authority. An Israeli political source has told Haaretz that Biden would like "to make a speech that is important and significant for Israeli-American relations". The aims of this high-level visit to Israel are to ensure that Israel's response will be restricted with the diplomatic track and to give a strong "alliance" message to Israelis as President Obama gave in Turkey and Egypt last year.


Syrian-Israeli Agreement on Phased Withdrawal Plan?: Gabrielle Rifkind, the director of the Middle East Program at Oxford Research Group, told Haaretz via e-mail that Syria is willing to consider peace and gradual normalization with Israel. According to this plan, following an Israeli withdrawal from half the territory it holds on the Golan Heights, the two states would declare an end to the state of enmity between them as a first step.

Although Syrian officials insist on pressing ahead through Turkey's mediation, Rifkind emphasized the importance of Damascus in the region:

From a conflict resolution perspective, reaching out to Syria will involve bold steps, and experience would suggest that if Syria and Israel managed to establish an agreement on the Golan, the view from the leadership may be significantly different. There could be a potential role for Syria as a mediator between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah which could drastically improve the chances of a long-term truce - or even a permanent resolution - between these parties.

Hamas Disowns Yousef: After it was released that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of one of Hamas's founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, had worked for Israel's security service Shin Bet; Hamas Web sites published a letter saying the father disowned his son on Monday.

IDF Blacklisting Israelis?: It has been reported that the details of license plates of a number of left-wing activists during demonstrations at the villages of Bil'in and Na'alin were given to IDF by Israeli police. In the document entitled "Data of vehicles used by left-wing Israeli activists and anarchists to reach demonstrations in Na'alin and Bil'in", registration numbers of 11 vehicles are listed. The IDF did not deny the report and said the organization is using information on Israelis who demonstrate against the separation fence.

Hamas Accuses Egypt & Jordan: Hamas has reportedly claimed that the security forces of an Arab state were behind the assassination of a senior group operative in Dubai. Mahmoud Nasser, a member of Hamas' political bureau, said that agents from Jordan and Egypt took part in the assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.