UPDATED Iran Election Video: Nowruz and the Green Movement

Tehran, reportedly during Supreme Leader's speech

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuEVC9ddIgo[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (22 March): The Economic Clash

Chants at tomb of Hafez, Shiraz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJrMrb6ED28[/youtube]



[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsyaD32Q8eQ&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Allahu Akhbars for Nowruz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDYWVYNuA58&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Afghanistan: US Military Holds On to Detainees

Gareth Porter writes for Inter Press Service:

An initiative to revise the procedures for reviewing the cases of detainees in order to free marginal insurgents and innocent Afghans has run afoul of the interests of officers of the powerful Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) in defending their role in earlier detention decisions.

A study of U.S. detention policy in Afghanistan by Maj. Gen. Douglas
Stone in early 2009 had concluded that holding hundreds of detainees
without charge in both U.S. and Afghan detention facilities was helping the hardcore Taliban radicalise the vast majority of the detainees.

Stone was reported by The Guardian Oct. 14 to believe that two-thirds of the prisoners held in Bagram were innocent and should be released.

But the new procedures for detainee review put in place late last year
have led to relatively few releases, and the conditions attached to
those releases have rubbed more salt on old Afghan wounds.


Of the 576 detainees whose cases had been reviewed under the new rules by late January, only 66 had been released, Brig. Gen. Mark S.
Martins, deputy commander of "Joint Task Force 435", which has
responsibility for detainee operations in Afghanistan, told IPS in a
recent interview.

In addition, the release procedure requires the detainees and the
village elders vouching for them to sign a paper saying the detainees
had been held on the basis of intelligence linking them to the
insurgency. At a meeting for the handover of some released detainees
in Kabul reported by The New York Times Saturday, village elders from Paktia province refused to sign the paper until the offending language was changed.

The commander of Task Force 435, Navy Vice Admiral Robert S. Harward Jr., defended the intelligence conclusions at the Kabul meeting, but ultimately agreed to allow the elders to sign a paper that rejected
that conclusion. In the future, the document will say that the
detainees were considered insurgents in the eyes of the U.S.,
according to the Times report.

Harward's role at the meeting highlights an apparent conflict of interest that hampers the achievement of the original aim of the Task Force.

Harward had been assistant commander of "Task Force 714", a covert
special operations group that conducted hundreds of targeted raids in
Afghanistan under JSOC, from 2006 to 2008. Those raids filled the U.S.
detention facility at Bagram Air Base with suspected insurgents.

Harward and other present and past JSOC officials, including Gen.
Stanley A. McChrystal, who was then overall commander of JSOC, have an obvious interest in ensuring that the results of case reviews do not
reflect negatively on JSOC's detention decisions.

Putting an officer with such an obvious conflict of interest in charge
of the Task Force - and assigning Martins, a lawyer who is clearly
more sympathetic to detainee rights, as his deputy - has all the
earmarks of a Pentagon compromise.

Read rest of article....

Iran: View from Tehran "Changes within the System are Impossible"

A reliable EA source passes on these insights from a well-placed contact:

Today an Iranian friend called.

According to him, the Government did effectively scare the people by killing and arresting them and relentlessly summoning political activists or journalists to court. It also is promoting itself through intense propaganda.

Oppositional administrative structures are virtually destroyed, which was one of the reasons for the tohubohu [confusion] on 22 Bahman [11 February, the anniversary of the Revolution]. Nevertheless the people resist, and growing rifts are visible within the regime's body. The number of people, even very religious ones, who doubt the Government's pretentions, is growing day by day. Meanwhile many have realised that changes within the system are impossible, and even parts of the clergy favour a separation of state and religion.



He said "hormat-e hokumat shekast" (the ruler's honour is broken --- just think of people's reaction to the Supreme Leader's attempted fatwa on the ceremonies of Chahrshanbeh Suri). Apparently Ahmadinejad and his mafia possess documents relating to the Supreme Leader, which force Khamenei to abide by their wishes.

He deemed Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani's support for Rafsanjani as essential and favoured a tripartite tactic of oil sanctions, political challenge, and popular resistance to bring down this regime, even though it would be hard for the Iranian people. Without sanctions the govt would have enough income to maintain its pressure on dissidents, i.e., the Iranian majority.

This friend is very religious and has good contacts to the ruling classes. He reported also that Sepah [Revolutionary Guard] is smuggling money out from the country via Dubai.

Israel-US: Four Palestinians Killed as Netanyahu Goes to Washington

The death toll so far is four Palestinians. On Sunday, two farmers, who allegedly attacked Israeli soldiers with pitchforks near the West Bank city of Nablus, were shot dead. Earlier Sunday, a 19-year-old Palestinian died of wounds after he reportedly opened fire on Israel Defense Forces during a demonstration in the south of Nablus. On Saturday, a 16-year-old died after being hit in the heart by a rubber-coated bullet fired by Israeli troops.

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza is Boiling, Israel-Palestine Negotiations, Netanyahu to Washington

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leaving for Washington on Sunday night. Earlier Sunday, at his weekly Cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said that the policy on building in East Jerusalem has not changed in Israel's history and that he has informed the US administration of that in writing "Construction in Jerusalem is like construction in Tel Aviv and we have clarified that for the American government."



According to The Sunday Times, in return for his "promised gestures" towards Palestinians, Netanyahu will use a visit to Washington this week to press the U.S. to release advanced weapons, including sophisticated "bunker-buster" bombs needed to break through to Iran's nuclear enrichment installations, many of which are buried underground.

So, what are these "gestures?" Let's recall: suspending but not stopping the construction in East Jerusalem, the release of hundreds of Fatah-affiliated prisoners, the easing of the blockade on the Gaza Strip by allowing the UN to import construction materials, and discussing all core issues during the proximity talks, with the condition of reaching final conclusions only in direct talks with the Palestinian Authority. These are the "gestures" Netanyahu thinks that will bring a "stronger political and military relationship" with Washington.

We do not know what awaits Netanyahu in Washington but Edward Djerejian, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian affairs, offered recommendations to the Obama Administration and revived the question: Should Washington consider suspending its economic aid as leverage? He told Haaretz by phone:

When faced with a similar situation concerning Israeli settlement activity in 1991, President George H.W. Bush and secretary James A. Baker III stopped an additional $10 billion in housing loan guarantees to the Israeli government headed by Likud Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. The stakes are equally high today.

If the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are stalemated, the prospects for violence and instability in the region will be enhanced. The Obama administration should urge both the Israelis and the Palestinians to live up to their obligations in facilitating the onset of direct negotiations on the substantive issues. The sooner, the better.

The Latest from Iran (21 March): Happy New Year, Mr Ahmadinejad

1750 GMT: It's All About US and Us. A slowish news phase, so the media are focusing on Ayatollah Khamenei's Sunday speech. It's on the lines of the Twitter publicity put out by his office (1330 and 1420 GMT), but this extract is especially provocative:

The enemies wanted to divide the people... and to create a civil war, but the nation was alert. If they were able to do it, the US and Zionist regime would have sent troops to Tehran's streets, but they knew it would hurt them. Thus they spread propaganda and supported the rioters.

1730 GMT: We've posted Iranian New Year videos featuring defiant chants from the opposition.

1440 GMT: Parliament v. President. Islamic Republic News Agency is claiming a fight-back against Parliamentary resistance to Ahmadinejad subsidy reform and spending proposals, quoting Arsalan Fathipour, head of the Parliament's economic commission, "We believe it is not possible to implement the subsidy reform plan at 20,000 billion tomans ($20 billion). So delegates intend to raise the figure to 35-38,000 billion tomans ($35-38 billion)." That would be almost all the $40 billion demanded by the President.

NEW Latest Iran Election Video: Nowruz and the Green Movement
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: A Rights-First Approach in Washington?
NEW Iran Video and Summary: Karroubi’s New Year Message
Latest Iran Video and Transcript: Obama’s Nowruz Message (20 March)
Iran Appeal: Japan’s Deportation of Jamal Saberi
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Fails in Qom? (Verde)
Iran: Inside the Mind of the Interrogator
The Latest from Iran (20 March): Nowruz

1430 GMT: Obama and Iran. Edward Yeranian of the Voice of America claims that there was a "mized" reception amongst "Iranians inside and outside Iran" of President Obama's Nowruz message.


1420 GMT: "Rights" Annoys Khamenei. The emphasis in Barack Obama's Nowruz message on rights for Iran's people has annoyed the Supreme Leader. His office's Twitter barrage continues:

USA President sent letter and message to normalize relations, but his actions was against his words....USA President called distruptives "civil movement" and supported arsonists in recent events....Aren't you ashamed of killing in innocent people in Iraq and Afghanistan while talking about Human Rights?

1340 GMT: Winning on the Internet. The Guardian of London offers an interview with Austin Heap, the creator of the Haystack initiative to assist Iranians with access to the Internet, evading regime blocks and protecting their security.

1330 GMT: Everything Most Excellent Here. Really. The Supreme Leader's Twitter machine is extracting English quotes from his Nowruz message. My favourite so far: "Last Iranian year was the nation's year and their victory; a year of seeming presence in glorious arena."

1005 GMT: Speaking of Rights. Nooshabeh Amiri, writing in Rooz Online, considers "Women’s Movement [As] a Prelude to the Green Movement".

1000 GMT: US, Iran, and Rights. We've put our snap analysis of a possible shift in US policy on Iran into a separate ent

0900 GMT: The Ruling of the Umpire. The Iran-based blogger Persian Umpire is back after an absence with three entries: one on the events of 22 Bahman (11 February), one on waiting outside Evin Prison for a detained friend, and one on last week's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) ceremonies.

The summary of the festival offers one of the classic observations of this post-election crisis: "No one gave a certain rodent’s bottom for the fatwa [of Ayatollah Khamenei]. In fact it solidified people’s resolve to come out and celebrate."

0700 GMT: As Iranians celebrate Nowruz, they have been greeted by messages for the New Year. And there is more than a bit of politics behind the best wishes. The most pointed intervention may have come from Mehdi Karroubi, who derided the regime (a "small barge" not a "galleon") as illegitimate. We have the video and a summary.

President Ahmadinejad offered his own message, but the question is whether it has been overshadowed by events which do not point to 1389 as his happiest year. Consider....

As EA's Mr Verde predicted, the President got both a slap and a warning with the release of Hashemi Rafsanjani's relative and political ally Hossein Marashi from prison. Officially, the freedom is only temporary for Nowruz --- Marashi was jailed on Thursday after an appeals court upheld a one-year sentence for "propaganda against the regime". Beyond the official, the political significance will be whether Marashi goes back to prison; if not, it will be a dent in the authority of the Government.

Rooz Online echoes Mr Verde's assessment of an Ahmadinejad failure in his Thursday mission to Qom to get the support of senior clerics, claiming "the chief authorities refused his presence". (Rooz adds a name to those who did meet with Ahmadinejad: Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi.)

In Tehran three lawmakers, prominent in economic discussions, criticised Ahmadinejad for his Friday suggestion of a referendum on his subsidy reform and spending plans, saying he is legally obliged to execute the economic reform plan approved by the Parliament. Gholam Reza Mesbahi Moqaddam, Ali Tavakkoli, and Elyas Naderan  said in ajoint statement, "The president does not have the right to disobey a law which has been approved by the Parliament."