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Entries in Pakistan (23)

Thursday
May282009

Video: Brzezinski on MSNBC --- Warnings after North Korea's Nuclear Test

Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter, spoke on MSNBC’s Morning Joe
about North Korea’s recent nuclear test. He underlined the importance of a multilateral approach, given that the US is still involved in conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Brzezinski warned that a military strike against North Korea would get the US stuck in the Far East. Instead, he put hope in Chinese involvement in a diplomatic initiative, since a prudent China does not want a war next to its borders and North Korea’s foreign trade is primarily with and through China.

Friday
May222009

A Gut Reaction to the Obama National Security Speech: Getting Stuck in A "Long War"

Obama Speech on “National Security” at the National Archives (21 May)
Dick Cheney Speech on “National Security” at American Enterprise Institute (21 May)

obama41Halfway through President Obama's speech on national security, including torture, the Guantanamo Bay detention regime, and the tensions in transparency and state secrets, I thought:

He's nailed it. Flat-out nailed it.

Obama illuminated with flashes of rhetoric: "“We cannot keep this country safe unless we enlist the power of our most fundamental values." He used the setting of the National Archives, with America's founding documents: "We must never – ever – turn our back on [the Constitution's] enduring principles for expediency's sake." He turned inside-out the Bushian cloak of national security and "our boys" when he criticised waterboarding and other techniques of torture:

They undermine the rule of law. They alienate us in the world. They serve as a recruitment tool for terrorists, and increase the will of our enemies to fight us, while decreasing the will of others to work with America. They risk the lives of our troops by making it less likely that others will surrender to them in battle, and more likely that Americans will be mistreated if they are captured. In short, they did not advance our war and counter-terrorism efforts – they undermined them, and that is why I ended them once and for all.

In comparison to this powerful opening, the fear-mongering invocations, the evasions, and outright deceptions of Dick Cheney --- who is speaking as I type --- are not just tired and tiring excuses; they are close to obsolete.

But then, halfway through the speech, Obama got into trouble. Because it was then that he had to move from his powerful abstract of "values with security" to the realities of the Bushian policies that had wrenched them apart.

To solve the Guantanamo Bay riddle --- how to close the facility while maintaining the promise that not one "terrorist" would be free in America? --- Obama set out five categories of detainees. He was strongest when he spoke of the first category, those who would be tried in the US Federal criminal system: "Our courts and juries of our citizens are tough enough to convict terrorists, and the record makes that clear." And he was forthright on another category, the 21 detainees whose release has already been ordered by US judges: "The United States is a nation of laws, and we must abide by these rulings." He could just about get away with the category of 50 detainees who are not considered dangerous but who cannot be released to those home countries, setting aside the difficulty that no "third country" has yet accepted them.

But on two categories, Obama was vague to the point of contradiction. There are those who will be tried by the revived military commissions for "violations of laws of war". But which of the Guantanamo detainees are in this "war crimes" category? Is it the Al Qa'eda master planners like Khalid Shiekh Mohammed, whose terrorist actions do not fit the establshed category of war? Or is it Taliban commanders, who did wage war but did not necessarily carry out the atrocities --- which go far beyond fighting the US --- that are "war crimes"?

In fact, those above groups were covered in Obama's other, and most problematic category: "detainees at Guantanamo who cannot be prosecuted yet who pose a clear danger to the American people", expanded later by Obama in examples such as "people who have received extensive explosives training at al Qaeda training camps, commanded Taliban troops in battle, expressed their allegiance to Osama bin Laden, or otherwise made it clear that they want to kill Americans".

Obama's invocation of the category clearly covers cases, including that of Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, where the Bush Administration fouled up the possibility of successful prosecution through its mishandling of evidence and use of torture. however, the President's murkiness becomes evident when one notes the inclusion of Taliban commanders. As prisoners of war, they should have been released once the battle in Afghanistan was over, with the downfall of their movement at the end of 2001.

But there's the rub, isn't the it? The war is never over. Not in Afghanistan, and now Pakistan, where "Taliban" are still fighting the US. And not beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan where, from Asia to Europe to the American continent, Al Qa'eda is always a menace.

That "long war", even perpetual war, definition is not a relic from the past. Before the powerful rhetoric that initially entranced me, Obama laid the trap:
We are less than eight years removed from the deadliest attack on American soil in our history. We know that al Qaeda is actively planning to attack us again. We know that this threat will be with us for a long time, and that we must use all elements of our power to defeat it.

It was the current President, not the past one, who renewed the declaration of war: "For the first time since 2002, we are providing the necessary resources and strategic direction to take the fight to the extremists who attacked us on 9/11 in Afghanistan and Pakistan." And it was Obama, and only Obama, who concluded his speech:
Unlike the Civil War or World War II, we cannot count on a surrender ceremony to bring this journey to an end. Right now, in distant training camps and in crowded cities, there are people plotting to take American lives. That will be the case a year from now, five years from now, and – in all probability – ten years from now.

This self-constructed admission --- we fight, we continue to fight, and we may always fight --- might explain why Obama's speech sagged badly in the second half as he discussed "transparency" vs. "security". To be honest, he should have left that section --- another attempt to justify both his decision to release the "torture memoranda" of the Bush Administration and his decision not to release photographs of abuse of detainees, his proposals to set guidelines for and oversight of "state secrets" --- at home. Although he may have the intention resolving this complex thicket, he gave the immediate game away when he said, in a time of "war", that he too can always invoke "national security": "Releasing these photos would inflame anti-American opinion, and allow our enemies to paint U.S. troops with a broad, damning and inaccurate brush, endangering them in theaters of war."

More immediately, long/perpetual war ensures that Guantanamo --- maybe with 50 or 100 detainees rather than 240 --- remains open past Obama's initial January 2010. Long/perpetual war has ensured that the tension of "values vs. security" has been taken from facilities in Iraq to other facilities and battlefields in Central Asia. And, even as Obama criticises the "fear-mongering" of the past, he can set up a binary of extremes to justify this middle-ground long/perpetual war:
There are those who make little allowance for the unique challenges posed by terrorism, and who would almost never put national security over transparency. On the other end of the spectrum, there are those who...suggest that the ends of fighting terrorism can be used to justify any means.

For me, this is an intelligent President. This is a President with good intentions. But this is a President who errs in his artificial juxtaposition of a misguided "focus on the past" with his preferred "focus on the future". He does so because --- hanging over the past, over the future, and over now --- are the perpetual tensions in his mission to "forge tough and durable approaches to fighting terrorism that are anchored in our timeless ideals".

Others like Dick Cheney will claim that their "tough and durable approaches" were right. Others like Obama's military commanders will claim that their "tough and durable approaches" are working. And so --- as Guantanamo drags on, as Camp Bagram in Afghanistan expands, as hope for America turns to hostility against America in other parts of the world --- "national security" will sit along more abuses and more deaths.
Wednesday
May202009

That US Strategy in Pakistan: A Bit of Money for Two Million Refugees

Video and Transcript: Clinton Press Briefing on Aid to Pakistan

pakistan-refugees1Yesterday afternoon I drafted the passage, for an article for an electronic journal:

Even if one credited Obama's general proclamation of “a comprehensive strategy that doesn’t just rely on bullets or bombs, but also relies on agricultural specialists, on doctors, on engineers", military tactics undercut rather than supported that conception. In US-backed operations, civilians --- if they are recognised by Washington --- are offered not progress but sacrifice. As I write, up to 75 percent of the 1.3 million residents of Pakistan's Swat Valley are now refugees.

I have to make a revision to that paragraph: the latest estimates are that 2 million people, in and beyond the Swat Valley, have been displaced. However, my general point was powerfully endorsed by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Clinton, in a press briefing, pledged $110 million in US funds ($100 million from the State Department and $10 million from the Department of Defense) for "this major humanitarian crisis". She added, "Providing this assistance is not only the right thing to do, but we believe it is essential to global security and the security of the United States, and we are prepared to do more as the situation demands."

So let me get this straight. The Pakistani military, pushed by the US Government, launches operations that prompt 2 million people to flee --- an exodus rivalled in Pakistan's history only during the 1948 partition from India --- but this forced homelessness becomes an example for the "civilian-led" dimension of the Obama Administration's strategy? Strikes me that is akin to the arsonist proving his merits by offering a few blankets after the fire has been set.

Of course, this crisis is not just a one-way affair: the Taliban's activities have also prompted residents to hide or take flight. And the crisis is mitigated, if you can mitigate the indefinite loss of a home, because an estimated 90 percent of the displaced are staying with families and friends rather than in camps.

I am still not convinced, however, that the 2 million will be testifying to Washington's long-term aim of economic progress and security if and when they hear Clinton's words about the power of US benevolence and technology:
Now, Americans can use technology to help, as well. Using your cell phones, Americans can text the word 'swat' -- to the number 20222 and make a $5 contribution that will help the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees provide tents, clothing, food, and medicine to hundreds of thousands of affected people. And before I came over here, we did that in the State Department. So we are making some of the first donations to this fund.
Sunday
May172009

Video: The Pakistani Offensive in the Swat Valley

We're still trying to get to grips with the extent of the Pakistani military's offensive against the Taliban in the Swat Valley. In contrast to the knowledge that up to 1 million people (a sizeable portion of the population) have fled the area, details on the fighting are sketchy and overshadowed by rumour. Al Jazeera have a video report documenting Pakistani airstrikes and the reaction of residents of Mingora, the largest town in the area:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKyEIhjo6CA[/youtube]
Wednesday
May132009

Sri Lanka: The Hidden Slaughter

Related Post: Sri Lanka - "Why is the World Not Helping?"

UPDATE: The closing paragraphs of this piece were significantly rewritten after attention was drawn to errors in the original entry. Please see the readers' comments for details.

sri-lanka-shellingThe comment was fleeting, but significant. Steve Clemons, a prominent Washington journalist, posted on Twitter after an discussion with British Foreign Minister David Miliband yesterday: "Surprised AfPak [Afghanistan-Pakistan] wobbliness not the core topic in New America new media chat with UK For Minister Miliband. Steve Coll pushed Sri Lanka mess."

It is estimated that the "Sri Lanka mess", in which Government forces are fighting the insurgency of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam has killed an estimated 6500 civilians in recent weeks. Yet it has been effectively a non-story in US and British media. Both The Washington Post and The New York Times only noticed it on Monday, when a United Nations spokesman revealed a death toll of almost 400 from a weekend artillery barrage.

There are obvious reasons (excuses?) for this. Afghanistan and Pakistan are at the epicentre of US foreign policy. Sri Lanka is not. It can claim no connection with the "War on Terror", at least as it has been defined in Washington. No Osama bin Laden lurking in a border town, no nuclear weapons that can be seized by insurgents. So broadcasters and major newspapers don't expend increasingly limited resources on a bureau near Colombo.

Atttention spans may be changing, however. Whether it is because a British minister has dared put this hidden war above the visible one from Islamabad to Kabul, because the concern of the United Nations is finally have an effect, because the Tamil protests in London have unveiled the issue, or because journalists are catching up with the reality of the carnage, Sri Lanka has made the news today in Britain. The Times forcefully declares, "The world must force Colombo to halt the shelling of trapped civilians," and The Guardian has a Page 1 eyewitness account by Vany Kumar (reprinted in a separate blog) of shelling in the "no-fire zone".

Perhaps the most intriguing attention comes in an opinion piece by Andrew Buncombe in The Independent as he quotes a doctor's analysis of the conflict: ""In any military operation there is collateral damage. In Pakistan it's killing, in Sri Lanka it's slaughter."

The piece is well worth considering not only for its thoughtful attention to the relative coverage of the two conflicts but also to wider issues. Buncombe, as the Asia Correspondent of The Independent is having to make decisions on how he expends his own resources of time and energy between covering Pakistan, where he has been writing about the exodus of residents from fighting in the northwest of the country, Sri Lanka, and other countries. It also highlights the relative ease with which a journalist can file stories about and from Pakistan, even in the midst of the campaign against the insurgency, versus the difficulties in getting access to and bringing out information from Sri Lanka.

Beyond these logistical and practical considerations, however, there remains the question, at least looking out from Washington. In the midst of the politics and military posturing around "Af-Pak", will the collateral damage in eastern Sri Lanka ever merit sustained attention?