Friday
May212010
Iran Analysis: Four Perspectives on the Uranium-Sanctions Dance
Friday, May 21, 2010 at 6:40 
Amidst the ongoing reaction on the uranium front, Dissected News offers a provocative reading, working through and around four partial viewpoints to argue:The Obama administration was given the opportunity to eliminate the myths and start a new chapter in U.S. foreign policy. Instead, [the President] scrambled to defend the old policy.
Lack of change domestically [can] be blamed on predecessors or legislatures, but Obama owns his own foreign policy legacy.
Roger Cohen of The New York Times is even sharper in his criticism of Washington, calling for a negotiation between the caricatures of US-Iranian relations but concluding:
Last year, at the United Nations, Obama called for a new era of shared responsibilities. “Together we must build new coalitions that bridge old divides,” he declared. Turkey and Brazil responded — and got snubbed. Obama has just made his own enlightened words look empty.
EA's Ms Zahra offers a far different perspective:
The only language the Iranian system understands is power (zaban-e zoor). Accepting the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration as a first step would create another delay of several months. Rejecting it may appear as unwillingness to negotiate, but only from a very superficial perspective. The regime made this diversion on purpose, and Clinton replied, "Who do you think you're fooling?"
Well, let's see, if Tehran finally realises that it has crossed all red lines. If Turkey was really tacitly supported by the US, then it certainly was not for this mockup of treaty. I have the impression that [the Turkish and Brazilian leaders] Erdogan and Lula weren't able to push the Supreme Leader further.
Farideh Farhi, in a wide-ranging interview on the Iranian internal situation and US-Iranian relations, adds this incisive point:
It is very interesting to watch and see the different reactions to this nuclear agreement in the past few days and compare that to the kind of reaction that occurred when the previous agreement was announced last October. This time there is the sense to me that a very large sector of the Iranian elite are being called upon to support this deal. The kind of disagreement that manifested itself last time I do not see. There have been important voices that have objected to this deal, but, for example, 200 of the 290 members of the parliament say they support the agreement. And last year, for example, the Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani strongly opposed the deal. This time he told the
people to be united. Even some important individuals considered to be more reform-oriented have written editorials talking about these being very critical times for Iranian history. You get a real sense that a high-level decision has been made to push for an agreement and to try to resolve the nuclear issue.
Reader Comments (14)
I bet no one saw THIS coming! :-)
Iran may cancel swap over sanctions
Vice Parliament speaker Mohammad-Reza Bahonar said new sanctions would mean Iran is no longer bound to the agreement with Brazil and Turkey.
"If a new resolution is approved, Iran will not be committed to the recent declaration and dispatching fuel outside Iran will be canceled," Bahonar was quoted as saying by Mehr News Agency.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=127106§ionid=351020104" rel="nofollow">http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=127106&sec...
Turkey's work on Iran nuclear deal shows emerging diplomatic power
Scott Peterson of the CSM writes:
But whatever the outcome, Turkey's high-profile role in Iran nuclear negotiations is in keeping with an increasingly robust foreign policy that stretches from Congo to Russia to Latin America and seeks to include everything in between. Davutoglu is a key architect of NATO ally Turkey’s broadening influence, which includes a “zero problems with neighbors" policy.
“This is a beautiful symptom of Turkey’s overall foreign policy: build as many networks as possible and put themselves in the middle,” says Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/0519/Turkey-s-work-on-Iran-nuclear-deal-shows-emerging-diplomatic-power%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr" rel="nofollow">http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/0519...>
RE Stephen Walt's description of Turkish foreign policy, I only wish the Obama admin were doing the same :-(.
I am 100% in agreement with Ms. Zahra.
I commented on EA last year that the only language Islamic Republic responds to was Force. I wrote that Islamic Republic interprets talks and negotiations as weakness. It took 16 months for Obama to finally understand this. I am glad he got it; better late than never. I was glad to finally see US having the balls to show middle finger to Islamic Banana Republic.
It does not matter if sanctions have enough teeth. What it matters is that it tells IR we are not your clowns; get on with the program or go to hell. Language of Force is what IR computes; it is part of its DNA.
Scott, I wrote to you, in another thread, that I did not believe at any time Obama administration persuaded Brazil and Turkey to engage Islamic Republic to get a new uranium enrichment deal, especially one drafted by Islamic Republic and in-line with its hidden agenda. I also believe Obama administration, if they asked Brazil and Turkey to help; it was for the purpose of getting IR to buy into the Vienna agreement in its entirety. Furthermore, I believe both Brazil and Turkey were misled by IR; the expression on Lulu’s and Erdogan’s face in that make believe victory photo tells it all. Either due to language barrier (working through several translators) or being worn out by Islamic Republic con artists, Lulu and Erdogan caved in and joined the charade that they had a deal. Many in the media without knowing the detail of the IR-Brazil-Turkey deal vs. the Vienna deal joined the Islamic Republic parade; some puzzled, some confused and other disappointed that the 5+1 was not taking the bait.
I was not surprised with Obama administration response. After all this sham of a deal was a poke in the eye; it was an insult hard to take especially from a government that has no political or moral legitimacy; a government that lies, cheats, terrorizes, and murders its own people with impunity. That is why we saw that FU reaction from Obama administration. I hope they stay the course.
For those who still blame every nation except Islamic Republic on this uranium enrichment standoff, I would like them to address the following questions.
Why Islamic Republic has spent $20 billion to get fuel for Tehran medical reactor that at best has 5 more years of useful life? Tehran Medical reactor was to be retired and replaced by Bushehr reactor during Pahlavi regime. Construction of Bushehr reactor had started during the late Shah. Regime change halted its construction and therefore the phase out of Tehran medical reactor. Bushehr plant is being built by Russian who also, according to the contact, will supply the required fuel (rods) for it. Bushehr plant is expected to start operation this August. So why has Islamic Republic spent 20 billion dollars to enrich uranium for Tehran reactor? Does Islamic Republic want us to believe it has wasted 20 billion dollars of people’s money, it is picking a fight with the world community on this matter and thereby putting 70 million people at risk all for getting fuel for Tehran medical reactor?? HELL NO. The interest earned on that $20 billion alone can finance treatment of all cancer patients in Iran in some of the world class cancer centers anywhere in the world. Enrichment of uranium by Islamic is not for medical purpose nor it is for energy purposes. Iran has the second largest natural gas supply in the world. Enriching Uranium is for one purpose and one purpose only, making
a nuclear bomb. The loser Islamic Banana Republic even if it never ever could muster the knowhow to make a bomb it enjoys taunting the world that it could and it would. These nut jobs need to be dealt with the way they deal with their own citizens. These nobodies need to put out of their miseries because they compute nothing but FORCE.
@Megan,
thank you for your comment. As an Iranian, it is good to see that some people know the attitude of the Islamic Banana Republic.
In deed the government consist of nobodies who have no idea how to govern and how to use the enormes recources and human capital of Iran. They just know how to kill, torture and abuse their own people.
Thank you again.
I agree with Payam and BRAVO Megan.
IRI didn't spend $20 Billion to just agree to throw it away and they did not. With the agreement with Turkey-Brazil they retained everything they need to continue on their path and just gave up a couple useless chips to fool the Turks and Brazilians.
IRI is looking to buy another round of 8 months of delays and then they will be in an even stronger position to stick to their original plan of developing nukes...remember, the Hidden Imam is coming and they need to "prepare the world" for his arrival.
Just ask yourself: How else could the Hidden Imam's army have the slightest chance of defeating all the much more superior armies around the world?
Megan and others,
A question if I may..I am not disagreeing with any statements made but rather am curious of opinions. While a policy of nuclear latency has probably been adopted by Iran why would they not, in typical fashion, announce to the world that they are or will be able to produce a nuclear bomb in the next X years? Given the outlandish comments made (pick your area) would this not be another topic to brag on the great Iranian might? Does the fatwa issued by Khamanei only serve as a "smokescreen" to the realities that the regime is pursuing a nuclear weapon? My guess is that it is a deterent for military strikes and/or further sanctions but given the reactions by officials in the IRI to threats in the past, why is this any different? Is there another reason to pursue the bomb and not to use this as point to brag about the "mighty" IRI?
Also the word force is mentioned several times...can you please define what you mean by this? Specifically what force are you suggesting?
Regards,
Note: As my past comments show, I am in no way a supporter of the IRI but rather am a supporter of the Green Movement in Iran (I wear a green bracelt everyday to show my solidarity and have done so for almost a year now). It has become apparent to me that if someone asks a question on a comment one makes that is anti-IRI then someone that person is a supporter or anti green, etc so please do not take my questions as such, rather it is simply a question for dialogue.
Hi Bijan,
Maybe the IRI learned from Saddam Hussein. While I was clued into several organizations that believed Saddam never had WMD's, Hussein believed that by bragging about weapons he could control his own people and deter foreign invaders. That plan backfired. Hardcore.
Bijan, IRI is using deception around its nuclear program to avoid crippling sanctions that would otherwise receive unanimous support from the entire UN Security Council, inlcuing all of its non-permanent members.
As long as IRI claims that it is complying with its NPT obligations, the Security Council will have to deal with the possibility that this is another case of Saddam bragging about something he did not have, which resulted in his downfall.
So IRI will keep playing the delay game until it can either like North Korea announce that it's game over and has tested it first nuke or that it has the capability to assemble a nuke. Once it has that capability, no one will dare placing too much pressure on the regime because the regime will threaten that it will use its nuke if they pursue more pressure.
North Korea just killed 46 South Korean soldiers but as you can see the reaction has been relatively subdued to that act of war. Why? Because they know that N. Korea has nukes and its leaders are crazy enough to use it.
I'd like to see Mousavi and Karrubi condemn the fact that after 8 months of placing Iran under worldwide pressure, now the IRI has effectively agreed to the same offer that they rejected in October. They should make it clear that their position on the nuclear program is different from IRI and demand that the world focuses on IRI's brutality toward its own people.
Bijan
I would like to add to Bahman 's comment that don't forget their hidden imam ! their goal is beyond the preservation of human being; their final target is "djihad", all the people all over the world have to become muslim so that they can "run all the planet "; they don't give two hoots about USA, Europe ...and even Israel; these countries are too small as target compare to their principal one's ; and now, among the future sanctions, there are some ones about their bank's accounts in foreign countries; being controlled, they could not spend their money as they want ( for exemple to buy weapons ...) and their target will be in danger;I reassure you that their money is not to have some cruises and a well being, they have not this art of living; but what I don't understand is that, imagine that, there are no more Israel, Europe, USA ; all people are muslim on the planet, and so what ?? We will have a paradise instead of Planet Earth ?? We won't have any wars ?? my answer is no !! they will begin to eat each other; we have to say to them, "Stop" to smoke anything !! life is love , peace, help each other, giving to receive and how we are rich when we give more than somebody who receive, stop to ill-treat our people .
Bijan sorry for my bad english, yours is very difficult to understand; I have a green bracelt as well since the crackdown :-)! V
I find something to agree with in several opinions. Ms Zahra and Farideh Farhi are both right no doubt.
Presenting the deal to the hardliners, they said that it was only a proposition, they could change their mind at any time ! It's going to take more than a year to actually get the uranium, sanctions will also take a while to be put into effect, as many have said, they don't do anything unless forced. And the Turkey brazil agreements were difficult, so were not what was originally wanted.
The answer of Clinton can be the same, they are not yet voted, they can also be changed or refused, all depending on Iran's follow up.
One question, that I've never seen an answer to is : why couldn't the swap have been on Iranian soil, as they wanted ? What were the reasons for the refusal ?
And also, why don't they just buy the uranium for the tehran reactor while waiting for the other one to start in August, as Megan explained ?
If only 3% is necessary for electric energy, why all the fuss about the 20% ? And if they already have so much, why do they want to continue enriching more ? Unless it's to replace the Russian's later ? What do the Iranians say ?
And not just Megan but many others have asked the same question, why spend so much on nuclear when they have such huge ressources ? They could have built refineries etc. I'm sure they wouldn't have done that in France if the ground was full of gas and oil, LOL.
I have another question for the specialists :
Supposing that they intended to try for a bomb a long time ago, and that with time and all the constraints (satelite pics, defecting scientists, problems with material, other pressures), they realized that they couldn't, and that they had other more urgent needs. But that by this time there was so much mistrust and conflict, they just 'muddled' along by dilly dallying, and internal disagreements, and then the newest line is to call out for disarmement in the other countries as it 'wasn't fair', and by hedging along with agreements to swap but still messing about, as they want to be able to continue enriching (after all, they have spent all that time and money getting the installations), while needing to get out of sanctions in some way.
for Bijan :
" Don't Let Iran Blackmail the World " :
http://www.slate.com/id/2254073/" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/id/2254073/
In the Slate article (Ange Paris) :
<The mullahs have publicly sworn—to the United Nations and the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency—that they are not cheating.
He forgets to mention that muslims are allowed to lie when it's in their interest. (Takia (sp ?)). Just as they vote to enforce virtuous clothes but watch clips of Lady Gaga ;-)
Lying is not only islamic but apparently endemic to Iran, for whatever reason, especially survival according to this article :
http://tehranreview.net/articles/2359" rel="nofollow">http://tehranreview.net/articles/2359
Maybe a new software is needed to gauge the level of lying to aid diplomats in these serious negociations. Maybe it already exists, but is secret ? If not, where are those patriotic geeks ?