The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

NEW Iran: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Khaje Nasir University Hunger Strike (10 November)
NEW Iran: The Neda Agha Soltan Scholarship at Oxford University
Iran: An Eyewitness on 13 Aban “Protest An Inseparable Part of People’s Lives”
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Washington’s Unhelpful Misperceptions
Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)
The Latest from Iran (9 November): Assessing the Government

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1920 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Jamaran website.

1845 GMT: Mohammad Saleh Jokar, a senior official in the Student Basij organization, has announced that 6,000 Basij units will be created in elementary schools, seeking to promote Basij and revolutionary ideals among pupils from a young age. Jokar added that about 4.5 million students at elementary and high schools and 320,000 teachers are members of the Basij force.

1830 GMT: Rooz Online has published an English-language version of Ferehsteh Ghazi's interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. The cleric asserts,

The confessions that have been extracted in prison have absolutely no religious or legal value and cannot be the basis for the death or prison punishments that have been issued. Those who are responsible and their accomplices for such confessions, are religiously and legally guilty and criminal.

Whenever the execution of a religious punishment leads to negative consequences on religion or society, the judge can and must stop the execution. (see also "Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban")

1820 GMT: Labour Activists Jailed. We reported in late October on the threats to detain leaders of the Syndicate of Workers of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company after protests. Four of them --- Fereydoun Nikoufard, Jalil Ahmadi, Ghorban Alipour and Mohammad Haydari --- have now begun prison terms.

1800 GMT: Publish and Be Damned. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has warned that he will pursue sites that “publish baseless news”. The statement follows Monday's declaration by Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, Iran's commander of security forces, "There is need for greater supervision over the internet....Every time we have entered this scene, the media and individuals who show off as intellectuals attack and we step back.”

1330 GMT: A relatively quiet period, as we try to track down an English translation of the Mousavi statement on Monday to the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, but as an EA correspondent notes: "This was a master stroke by the Khomeini family, as it places Mousavi under its own tutelage and wards off attempts to arrest him."

Meanwhile, we have video of today's hunger strike at Khaje Nasir University.

1130 GMT: US Tells Ahmadinejad, "We've Got You Covered". US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may have just given the clearest message that Washington will work with the Iranian President, whatever obstacles he faces, to get an uranium enrichment deal.

Speaking to the US Public Broadcasting Service, Clinton said, "Look, we don't have to trust or love each other to understand that it is in our interest to try to stabilize the world." Then, noting the post-election crisis, she extended a helping hand to Ahmadinejad: "We understand the internal political dynamics, and we've been, I think, patient in helping [Iran] to see that we're serious."

0850 GMT: More on "Neda's Scholarship". The Iranian Embassy in Britain has fiercely criticised the award of a graduate scholarship in the name of Neda Agha Soltan by Queen's College, Oxford University (see separate entry).

Writing to Oxford's chancellor, the embassy expressed surprise at "a politically-motivated move", which involves the university "n a criminal case which is still under investigation by the Iranian police".

The embassy adds that Neda's death was "far from the scene of protests [which] erupted after the June presidential election". Indeed, the Iranian officials hint unsubtly, her slaying was part of a "complicated and planned" scenario.

So, the embassy concludes, "The involvement of the university in Iran's internal affairs, particularly in the country's post-election events of which the British media played a leading role, would lead to the loss of the university's scientific prestige and academic goal. This has nothing to do with the university's position and goals and will not help Iran and Britain improve their relations."

0835 GMT: More Than Meets the Eye on the Nukes? President Obama has told Reuters, ""Although so far we have not seen the kind of positive response we want from Iran, we are as well positioned as we've ever been to align the international community behind that agenda."

On the surface, that is an unexciting, hold-the-line statement. Yet it appears prominently in Iranian state media via Press TV, and it follows the clear signal from the US, via its ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (see yesterday's updates), that Iran has time to negotiate the Vienna uranium enrichment deal.

So are there talks behind talks for a US-Iran agreement? And, if so, by whom with whom?

0735 GMT: EA readers have followed up our news about the petition to commute the death sentence of  Ehsan Fattahian, arrested in July 2008 and scheduled for execution tomorrow for "war against God". They point us to his open letter, "I Never Feared Death".

0730 GMT: EA readers point us to a video of a heated debate at a Tehran university between Mostafa Kavakebian, a reformist member of Parliament, and his counterpart Hojatoleslam Hamid Rasaee, about the rule of law in post-election Iran.

0725 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the announcement of Queen's College, Oxford University, of a graduate scholarship in Philosophy in the memory of Neda Agha Soltan.

0630 GMT: A relative lull in the post-election crisis yesterday. The Government is still caught up in the detailed debate over its economic plans and the two-front confrontation --- at home and abroad --- over its response to the Vienna uranium enrichment deal. President Ahmadinejad is abroad, the Supreme Leader is silent for the moment, and surprisingly little has been heard from the military and security forces.

But only a "relative" lull. After each major gathering since June, there have been quiet phases, and yesterday was far from quiet. Mir Hossein Mousavi followed Mohammad Khatami into the post-13 Aban pages (and, again, note that the interview is being featured by the Khomeini family, which should be treated as an ally of the opposition) with his declaration for unity and warning that the Government could not hide behind the claim of an immutable Constitution, given that it was not living up to that document. Demonstrations are occurring each day somewhere on an Iranian university campus, and word-of-mouth is spreading the message that the mass gathering for 16 Azar (7 December) is less than a month away. And all of this is happening despite much, possibly the majority, of the Green leadership in prison or abroad.

This morning the news from the regime is of more uncertainty and mis-information. Kazem Jalili of Parliament's National Security Commission is pushing the anti-deal line that enrichment must be done inside Iran, using uranium purchased abroad, rather than in a country like Russia. Fars is claiming a private hospital refused to treat injured security forces, only treating a "certain group of people and turn[ing] away all bearded individuals who had a Basiji appearance".

And Khalil Hayat Moghaddam, a member of Parliament's judicial commission, has taken the propaganda that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have split (recall the false interview with Karroubi's son) to new depths:

These two have forgotten that they made a name for themselves under the banner of the Revolution, Leadership and martyrs...,as the tears of the mothers of the martyrs and the blood of the martyrs are what protect the establishment and the Leadership [from harm]. Mousavi and Karroubi's story brings to mind the tale of those people who were fighting over imaginary spoils of war; they have forgotten that they will not be able to inflict harm on the establishment and the Revolution. The harsh stance adopted by Hassan Karroubi against Mir Mousavi Mousavi clearly shows that disagreements are increasing between the supporters of the two political figures, and it will come to spelling each other's end. (English summary at Tehran Bureau)

Comments

[ange paris]

Students's demonstration of shahid chamran university of Ahvaz :

http://www.facebook.com/pages/-/198337830780?ref=nf

An other demonstration in Ahvaz : Azad university

http://www.facebook.com/pages/nqlb-sbz-hwz/198337830780?ref=nf

Presence of coup forces in the middle of sports ground :

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1263055344775

[ange paris]

Linked to 7h35 : Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in his latest Fatwa (religious ruling) emphasised that “The confessions taken... (mostly under pressure and torture) do not have any legal and religious credit and cannot be the bases for any sentencing including prison or execution.” He also stressed that those who are in anyways involved in these crimes (obtaining force confessions) either by consulting or executing these acts are legally criminals and religiously sinners.

According to the report by ILNA news agency, Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi in a meeting with Hojat-Al-Islam Gorgani, the head of the High Court of the county told him: “Say hello to Ayatollah Amoli Larijani (the head of judiciary) and tell him that people are awaiting the trial of criminals of Tehran University’s dormitory..., Kahrizak prison and Sobhan residence complex (many innocent people were brutally beaten or even killed in these places by coup government thugs). It is necessary that you act quickly so that, God forbids, people don’t lose their trust in the system. Obviously these kinds of trials require bravery which we know is in you.”

[xerxes]

This is such a bad move from the White house. Trying to get an uranium enrichment deal just for the sake of personal glorification. This will most certaintly backfire. Plus I doubt Obama will be able to persuade the right wing in Israel to give their blessing to an US / Iran deal.

[pessimist]

When I clicked on (7.35 gmt) 'his open letter' link I got a trojan warning from my anti-virus

[ange paris]

Xerxes
When all the presidents of the other counry were invited in germany to celebrate the fall’s wall in Berlin Obama was in USA , not only because of the gunfire in the US barraks causing the death of lots soldiers (it seems that the killer , himself a soldier , is linked to Al- kaida !!) but also Obama met Netanyahou to speak about Iran and the peace in the middle est !! It’s too odd for me ! and Clinton is exaggerating in honeyed tones; all this dosen't ring true !! to be continued…..

[whereismyvote]

One of my first ever posts in June 2009 on this forum was about how the silence of the Obama administration is being interpreted as a placid agreement to work with the AN administration to get a nuclear deal in return for throwing the reformers and democracy under the bus. I also argued that this third burn of Iranian people and democracy at the expense of short term strategic gains will lead to the alienation of America and Iranian people and the mistakes of the past repeating themselves.

I remember how many people on this forum passionately disagreed with me, and said that the US is playing a wait and see approach and the best action was silence. Now six months later we see that wall of silence becoming a new slowly crumbling wall of acknowledgement, support and agreement.

In reading the statements of Ms. Clinton, I have to say "I told you so" a quick deal will be struck before December in return for planes, some spare parts, nuclear deals and some economic slacking of the sanctions. This all will be followed by working with the Pasdaran and the AN government to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan and then the good of the deal shall justify working and supporting the Tyrants of Tehran.

Be also told; When the AN administration collapses in its own fester, Iranian people shall punish those hands that helped it.

[ange paris]

WIMV
Read my comment above and try to analyse it !!

[ange paris]

WIMV
And please don't focus on my english mistakes !! :-)
I know : barracks (with "c"), countries, Middle East and so on ; I was not concentrating , sorry ! it's not my first foreign language !

[whereismyvote]

@ange paris
Your English is just fine, and thanks for the comment, to the point however:

I doubt the barrack killings were related to anything other than an officer who went mental.. However your point that it seems the Obama admin is coordinating this deal between USA / Iran with Israel makes sense. Obama definitely will want to appease Netanyahou for he wants not only Israel to consent to the deal, but also will want to tie some US / Israel concessions on the settlement build out and peace process to the deal. In return AIPAC probably will sell the deal in congress and ram it thorough by marginalizing the right wing neo cons.

The pieces are in place now to have a quick deal on the nuclear issue rammed through both in Iran and in USA. USA would have a deal with an administration that has less shelf life in it left than the milk in my refrigerator...

[Arshama]

Dear WIMV,
Ms Clinton's proposal struck me, too, but when you read it carefully, you will see that her demands are the same, uttered only in a softer tone: The IRI has to accept the Vienna uranium deal!
Iran's political situation is critical, the same goes for its economy, i.e. favourable conditions for the world community to put pressure on the regime. But this obvious weakness may also lead to more radical reactions, i.e. inciting a new war in the Middle East. The Pasdaran would love to do so, following their military logic. In a first fierce reaction the regime accused three detained American hitchhickers of being spies.
Obama's administration is obviously trying to reach a deal, but certainly not at all costs.

[Scholarship In Honor of Neda A]

[...] been endowed at Oxford University in honor of Neda Agha-Soltan. According to Enduringamerica.com ( Uncertainly And Propaganda ) “The Iranian Embassy in Britain has fiercely criticised the award of a graduate scholarship [...]

[ange paris]

The only target of Obama and other countries is to take , this amount of uranium, out of iran, to be sure and safe psychologically , and for global security ; and after our time will come !! and we will see !!

[ange paris]

We wont have any war in the Middle East; already there is a reconciliation in Libanon and two of the ministers of Mr Hariri are Hezbollahs!! as soon as we will have an agreement between Israel and Palestine; I think the time of terrorism, mad" hezbollahs" and pasdars is over !!

[ChrisE]

WIMV,

Your analysis rests on the notion that the AN govt will be imminently overthrown by popular revolution. You simply cannot expect America to base policy on that assumption. No other government in the entire world is.

Look at this from an American perspective. For 30 years Iran has had a variety of governments, all of which have done fairly unpleasant things to its people. At various times the possibility of engagement has been raised and missed. It is broadly accepted that this has not benefited US interests (or really Iran's).

Obama campaigned on engagement, he won the argument for it, he dragged resistant parts of America's political system towards it. Now, because you say an imminent coup will occur in Iran, an analysis not shared by any other mainstream analyst or any other government in the world, he should call it off?

You are saying that he should do so because if he doesn't then the regime that inevitably replaces the current one will be even more hostile to America.

Firstly, I don't think the US believes that any government could be more objectionable than the current one has been.

Secondly, nobody has any idea what a post A-jad Iran would look like, let alone its foreign policy orientation. At the moment those most likely to feature in it are, perhaps superficially, being much more bullish on the nuclear issue. So how does that help America?

So basically, what you are asking is for the US to give up a potential deal that could resolve a major strategic priority for an unknown scenario which may or may not deliver a govt that will offer it better terms than the current one.

We all want rid of AN, but you're asking a lot my friend.

My opinion has always been that if the anti-AN opposition is relying on any action from the international community, then it has no chance of succeeding anyway.

[ange paris]

Chris E
Of course we rely on the international solidarity and in all demonstrations we cry " solidarité internationale" !! even the 1979 revolution was helped by international community and the decision was taken during the Guadeloupe summit by six more powerful countries at that time !! Now the international community want to get rid of the iranian uranium and after it will be the turn of the regime !! challenging with pasdars and painclothes , who for only 200 $ are able to kill their sisters and brothers , wont be too hard

[Pedestrian]

Scott, the summary of Mousavi's interview is up on Mousavi's FB page. We'll have the entire thing tomorrow.

I don't know if you've covered the worker strikes in Haft Tapeh, but the head of their union just released a new letter which I've put up.

[Scott Lucas]

Pedestrian,

Much appreciated. Will catch up now.

S.

[Doug]

ChrisE,
President Reagan walked out of nuclear talks in Iceland. His moral indignation helped bring down the Soviet Union. When the US does not give moral support to an oppressive regime, it can fall. Remember when talking about the Berlin wall, Reagan said, "Mr. Gorbechev, tear down this wall..."... A cascade of events unfolded when we supported the Solidarity movement in Poland(and the Pope also spoke out)... The US has spoken out in the past to great effect. We can do both: negotiate when necessary but also vehemently object in public and private. There are polite ways to scream... There is nothing wrong with publicly humiliating the Ahmadinejad regime on the world stage. The Soviet Union gave us nothing when they perceived us as weak. Tyrants perceive politeness as weakness and an opportunity to crush a fool... The US might as well stand for and speak for truth and what is morally right because the world always mocks us no matter what we say anyway. Why make excuses for oppression? Let the world be elegant cynics. We should crudely stand for freedom and justice. Let the diplomats eat the cake. And we should march to the Bastille of the issue in contradiction to the conventional wisdom of the aristocratic elites that the mainstream media indulge.

[ChrisE]

Ange Paris- the Shah would have fallen with or without the international community.

Doug- The Soviet Union did not collapse because of Reagan's moral indignation or any speech manifest of it.

We all show solidarity with the people of Iran, but I reject the notion that Iran's continued isolation benefits the Iranian people in the short, medium or long term. If there is one thing we have learnt it is that isolation does not modify the behaviour of the Iranian government.

I'm sorry but the US government deals with oppressive governments. It did more so during what Doug describes as its morally righteous struggle against the Soviet Union. It will do again. I dare say that if an Iranian opposition movement overthrows AN it will also negotiate with countries who torture and imprison.

My feeling is that the Obama administration has made the judgement that regrettably the current regime is the one that it has to deal with. It has also decided that and it cannot moderate Irans' domestic policies through speeches or isolation. To me, both those judgements are accurate. I do feel that in the longer term this year's crisis will force positive change in Iran. But I don't see the AN govt being overthrown.

It is not unreasonable for Obama is to try and resolve some strategic differences, when for the first that may be possible. That's not an abandonment of the protestors, it's just a recognition that the continued escalation of the nuclear crisis won't help the human rights situation in Iran.

[whereismyvote]

Dear Chris and all

As I started this passionate debate, I will add my final two cents. I am asking Mr. Obama and his administration and the British Government and the EU to do what they have preached for the last 30 years. To work to help establish democracy in Iran. America supported immoral unpopular regimes in Iran since 1957. The Shah fell because the people wanted him to go. AN will and shall fall. It is evident to me as clear as night and day. He may hold for 6 months or for 1 year but he and the current government are doomed to fail. They have to everyone's agreement only one means to survive, and that is to change the current balance. We all agree that a foreign attack will save the AN administration, what you have to realize is that a foreign deal will also do the same.

Mr. Obama is not in some magical place and time. Administrations from Regan to Bush Senior had the chance to work at this problem, cause detente and solve the bi lateral relationship issue. Now all of a sudden, when Iranians are trying to get rid of this Mullah infested tyrant monster that is at the root of half of all Muslim radicalism, America has chosen to pursue one goal and that is to solve the nuclear issue. The nuclear issue is non existence, in that it was made as a tool to hammer Iran. It is now time to engage Iran on a whole new set of issues more strategic than 1200 Kg of Uranium. How about human rights, free elections and a host of other items? I fear you don't get the cycle of how things will play. Today's youth are becoming radicalized daily. I have spoken how each round of mass protests has caused more aggression and radicalization. I fear soon when they see the west as working with AN, they will call it western conspiracy, and it will seal the faith of the current universal love of western and American positions that you have in Iran. Iran is the only major middle east country where a massive educated youth loves America and hates radical Islam. This like any love affair can turn to hate with one act of be trail. Is Obama admin willing to lose the battle of hearts and minds in Iran for the sake of a clenched deal? If Obama is not so sure that the greens will win, perhaps he could sit on the side for 6 months. What is the rush?

Soviet union fell cause it was an economically and morally bankrupt state, and it was circled and isolated from the west. We ask America to do the same in Iran. The AN administration has taken care of item 1 and 2 themselves. There is a way to engage AN government and ensure the will of the Iranian people remains on the table. This is not what has been done, and as such I fear you all miss the point. Iran is not North Korea and AN is not Mr. Kim. They are gone, and the sooner you accept that, the quicker you can see the outcome of this battle. If you don't want to stick out your neck, its completely understood, but to be opportunistic and to try and take advantage is completely different than remaining neutral.

I am sorry that at times my passion blinds me, but I rather have loved and been passionate than had seen the whole world in technicolor and not felt a thing. I am too invested to have an unbiased opinion on this subject.

[Pedestrian]

WIMV,
as a fellow Iranian, I completely disagree with you. Ahmadinejad will most likely NOT fall. Any hopes we have are long term, and nothing will change short term.
Of course, as I always say, I am not making a prediction. Iran is one land where it's best to keep your money in your pockets and not make predictions, as anything is possible.

The U.K. and the U.S. "to work to help establish democracy in Iran"?! Why would it be in the interests of these countries to have a REAL democracy in Iran? And what have they done for our neighbors, Iraq and Afghanistan, which would make you say something like that? Words like "democracy" and "human rights" are TOOLS - they aren't meant to be taken for what they really mean.

"Iranians are trying to get rid of this Mullah infested tyrant monster that is at the root of half of all Muslim radicalism" is YOUR view. It may be my view (it isn't) but this generalizing, this "Iranians" when we don't even know what % of the Iranian population opposes the government, and those who actually do oppose are of a myriad of different schools from devout revolutionaries to hard core secularists, ... This generalizing and exaggerations I think are one of the greatest threats to this movement in Iran.

I'm not sure you can summarize the fall of the Soviet Union in one line: "Soviet union fell cause it was an economically and morally bankrupt state"
I don't see the U.S. (and many other countries for that matter) falling any time soon.

Lastly, this is not a battle! Seeing it as such will only end in more bloodshed and ruin, and possibly on our side more than the government's. This is a question over the future of Iran and how we can incorporate these VERY contradictory visions and plans into one coherent whole with as little collateral damage as possible.

Falling into a discourse of good vs. evil when both sides are deeply complex and incoherent doesn't seem to help matters.

[florence achard]

ChrisE, WIMV, Ange Pari and all,

IMHO, if Obama succeeded in connecting some appeasement of the Israel/Palestine conflict with the US/Iran deal, that would greatly weaken AN and his government because they rely on a high level of tension in that region for their survival and their popularity among extremists and fanatics in the West as well as in Iran.
On the whole, I rather agree with ChrisE and I don't think the young protesters in Iran would see this move as a betrayal of their movement.

[ange paris]

Pedestrian
I think you are so optimistic !! could you please explain how this iranian governement is able to lead the country with this terrible tension inside; how the students of the iranian university will continue their study in this atmosphere , how iranian people could daily live in "huge" turmoil; it's impossible to run a country in these conditions except if they find the solution !! the problem is the legitimacy of AN so, the first wise step is his removal !! so that our people could breath normally ( a little bit !!!) but they could never forget what has happened !! and in long term , what you say , yes, it's the shift of the regime and it will last long time but in short term , this is the only solution to save their "islamic revolution" !!! and their skin

[ChrisE]

Ange,

I'm afraid the region shows that you don't always need legitimacy to rule.

[shangool]

WIMV,
In regards to your concern about the enrichment deal saving the AN admin. I agree with you that an agreement between Iran and US will save AN. I disagree with you that this deal will take place before december. Obviously Obama wants to have something to show for when he arrives in Oslo. But consider this: Which I believe to be connected to the enrichment deal. The seizure of weapons outside the Israeli Coast. We debated this and its significance. The timing is very convenient / unconvenient.

1) This was staged by Mossad in an attempt to shut down the enrichment deal, in essence Israel will rather have a military confrontation.

2) This was purely a black market job for profit( I doubt that)

3) IRGC and AN know that the negotiations will lead nowhere, they`re preparing for war.

4) Hashemi and allies was behind this, in an attempt to discredit AN.

regardless, I doubt Obama will go against Israeli wishes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8s3coyg6EXU