The Latest from Iran (18 November): Bubbling and Surfacing

NEW The Latest Iran Video: Demonstration at University in Karaj (17 November)
NEW Iran: Re-Evaluating the Green Movement After 5+ Months
NEW Latest Iran Video: “A Death in Tehran” on Neda Agha Soltan (17 November)
The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)

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2105 GMT: Apparently Saeed Sharati was freed "on the order of Tehran's Revolutionary Court", which seems like an acquittal. If so, that would be to my knowledge the first release of a prominent reformist after a trial.

2045 GMT: Carrot and Stick. Is the Government showing confidence that it has the reformists under control with a combination of jail sentences for some and releases for others? Saeed Shariati, a high-ranking Islamic Iran Participation Front members detained for more than three months, and Ashkan Mojallali, Mahdieh Minooie, and Iman Mirabzadeh, arrested at a prayer gathering last month, were freed --- presumably on bail --- earlier today.

1820 GMT: When Analyses Attack. From this morning's post: "One explanation for the shift may be that the Government’s 5+ months of restrictions on the communications and movements of the oppositonal leadership, “supported” by detentions and trials, have worn down the scope of the leadership’s declarations and ambitions."

This afternoon's news: "Rasoul Montajeb-Nia, the vice chairman of the Etemad Melli party [of Mehdi Karroubi] in an interview said that they are waiting for the authorities to remove the ban on this party's main office for further legal operation and activities."

Meanwhile, former President Mohammad Khatami visited Fatemeh Shahidi, a journalist for the reformist (and suspended) Etemade Melli newspape,) who was recently released after months in detention.

1355 GMT: Is This the End of the Nuclear Deal? Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has made a declaration to the Islamic Students News Agency which appears to be significant:

We reviewed [the Vienna proposal] from an economic and technical aspect. We will definitely not send out our 3.5 percent enriched uranium....We will [instead] consider swapping the fuel simultaneously in Iran....Iranian experts are reviewing the issue of swap to see how much fuel can be transferred. The amount they mentioned for the swap is not acceptable ... and our experts are still studying it.

If I read this correctly, Iran is proposing that a delivery of "20 percent uranium" be brought in from outside the country and swapped for Iran's "3.5 percent uranium". That would mean no initial reduction in Iran's overall uranium stock of 1500 kilogrammes --- the Vienna proposal would have taken up to 80 percent outside Iran for enrichment in Russia.

Considered this way, the question thrown back at the "5+1" countries is whether they can accept that the existing level of uranium production and stock will remain inside Iran's border and thus in its control. That's not a death blow to the negotiations; as Mottaki noted in another interview:

Q: From what I gather, you are looking to modify the basic P5+1 proposal but U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said this is a ‘take it or leave it’ offer.

A: In diplomacy, we do not have zero or hundred. Therefore, flexibility is considered the essence of diplomacy. I believe this, and I guess the American side will understand this point as well…. Earlier, when they wanted to talk to us, they put some preconditions (like suspension of enrichment).But today they are talking and participating in talks without any preconditions.

However, the swap suggestion could be a measure too far for the US and European countries. As Mottaki noted, "We have called for another meeting of the technical people who were part of Vienna talks and we will explain our considerations. But so far such meeting has not convened."

1305 GMT: Iran's chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has declared that the death of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-old physician at Kahrizak Prison, "was the result of suicide. The doctor had complaints of being threatened with a five-year jail term and had lost his spirit." Previously, state media said Pourandarjan had suffered a heart attack or stroke (see updates earlier this week).

"He committed suicide after he was summoned to the court."

1255 GMT: Journalist Kambiz Norouzi has been sentenced to two years in prison and 76 lashes after conviction "advertising against the establishment" and participating in post-election protests.

Ali Behzadiyan-Nejad, the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been sentenced to six years in prison for “disturbing the security of the country” and “advertising against the establishment”. Behzadiyan’s lawyer said some of the evidence used against  by the prosecutor were “comments people wrote in [Behzadiyan's] personal blog”.

1225 GMT: Don't Do It. The commander of Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has warned that his forces will confront any further "street riots". Naqdi claimed that demonstrators had staged riots in response to calls from US-based satellite stations run by Iranian expatriates: "Those groups that chant slogans against the revolution's values ... should know that they will be confronted by Basij."

1015 GMT: The Banknote Rebellion. Soon after the post-election crisis began, protesters began inscribing Green slogans and criticism of the Government on Iranian banknotes. An EA reader points us to the follow-up story that the Central Bank of Iran has tried to take the banknotes out of circulation, but with so many about, they have given up the effort.

1000 GMT: Nuclear Manoeuvres. Trying to offset apparent pressure from Russia, the spokesman for Parliament's National Security Commission insists that the Bushehr nuclear reactor will soon be operational. Russian officials said earlier this week that the plant would be delayed past its proposed opening date of the end of 2009.

0930 GMT: A Surfacing from Raf? An interesting article, given the relative silence of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani since August. Emrooz, the newspaper linked to Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, claims inside information from a meeting of Rafsanjani with several former members of Parliament.

One of those former MPs says Rafsanjani set four conditions, first offered in his 17 July sermon, for his return to Tehran Friday Prayers: the release of political prisoners, support for those injured in post-election conflict, rebuilding of relations with Grand Ayatollahs and clerics, and an opening-up of state radio and television to different viewpoints. Another source claims, “Without naming any specific individual, Hashemi warned against the growth of a movement that seeks to ignore the regime’s achievements and implicate everyone who cares about the regime.”

0920 GMT: A later start this morning, as we worked on an analysis of the shifts in the Green movement and their significance; even as leaders show caution in their statements, the signs of a long-term but far-from-disappearing movement persist. We have also posted the Public Broadcasting Service documentary, shown in the US last night, "A Death in Tehran" on the story of Neda Agha Soltan and the post-election protests.

Regular readers will note our frequent references to and use of sources from the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi. Tehran Bureau has a profile of the man behind the site, Mohammad Sadeghi.

The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

NEW Iran: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Khaje Nasir University Hunger Strike (10 November)
NEW Iran: The Neda Agha Soltan Scholarship at Oxford University
Iran: An Eyewitness on 13 Aban “Protest An Inseparable Part of People’s Lives”
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Washington’s Unhelpful Misperceptions
Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)
The Latest from Iran (9 November): Assessing the Government

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1920 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Jamaran website.

1845 GMT: Mohammad Saleh Jokar, a senior official in the Student Basij organization, has announced that 6,000 Basij units will be created in elementary schools, seeking to promote Basij and revolutionary ideals among pupils from a young age. Jokar added that about 4.5 million students at elementary and high schools and 320,000 teachers are members of the Basij force.

1830 GMT: Rooz Online has published an English-language version of Ferehsteh Ghazi's interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. The cleric asserts,

The confessions that have been extracted in prison have absolutely no religious or legal value and cannot be the basis for the death or prison punishments that have been issued. Those who are responsible and their accomplices for such confessions, are religiously and legally guilty and criminal.

Whenever the execution of a religious punishment leads to negative consequences on religion or society, the judge can and must stop the execution. (see also "Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban")

1820 GMT: Labour Activists Jailed. We reported in late October on the threats to detain leaders of the Syndicate of Workers of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company after protests. Four of them --- Fereydoun Nikoufard, Jalil Ahmadi, Ghorban Alipour and Mohammad Haydari --- have now begun prison terms.

1800 GMT: Publish and Be Damned. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has warned that he will pursue sites that “publish baseless news”. The statement follows Monday's declaration by Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, Iran's commander of security forces, "There is need for greater supervision over the internet....Every time we have entered this scene, the media and individuals who show off as intellectuals attack and we step back.”

1330 GMT: A relatively quiet period, as we try to track down an English translation of the Mousavi statement on Monday to the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, but as an EA correspondent notes: "This was a master stroke by the Khomeini family, as it places Mousavi under its own tutelage and wards off attempts to arrest him."

Meanwhile, we have video of today's hunger strike at Khaje Nasir University.

1130 GMT: US Tells Ahmadinejad, "We've Got You Covered". US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may have just given the clearest message that Washington will work with the Iranian President, whatever obstacles he faces, to get an uranium enrichment deal.

Speaking to the US Public Broadcasting Service, Clinton said, "Look, we don't have to trust or love each other to understand that it is in our interest to try to stabilize the world." Then, noting the post-election crisis, she extended a helping hand to Ahmadinejad: "We understand the internal political dynamics, and we've been, I think, patient in helping [Iran] to see that we're serious."

0850 GMT: More on "Neda's Scholarship". The Iranian Embassy in Britain has fiercely criticised the award of a graduate scholarship in the name of Neda Agha Soltan by Queen's College, Oxford University (see separate entry).

Writing to Oxford's chancellor, the embassy expressed surprise at "a politically-motivated move", which involves the university "n a criminal case which is still under investigation by the Iranian police".

The embassy adds that Neda's death was "far from the scene of protests [which] erupted after the June presidential election". Indeed, the Iranian officials hint unsubtly, her slaying was part of a "complicated and planned" scenario.

So, the embassy concludes, "The involvement of the university in Iran's internal affairs, particularly in the country's post-election events of which the British media played a leading role, would lead to the loss of the university's scientific prestige and academic goal. This has nothing to do with the university's position and goals and will not help Iran and Britain improve their relations."

0835 GMT: More Than Meets the Eye on the Nukes? President Obama has told Reuters, ""Although so far we have not seen the kind of positive response we want from Iran, we are as well positioned as we've ever been to align the international community behind that agenda."

On the surface, that is an unexciting, hold-the-line statement. Yet it appears prominently in Iranian state media via Press TV, and it follows the clear signal from the US, via its ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (see yesterday's updates), that Iran has time to negotiate the Vienna uranium enrichment deal.

So are there talks behind talks for a US-Iran agreement? And, if so, by whom with whom?

0735 GMT: EA readers have followed up our news about the petition to commute the death sentence of  Ehsan Fattahian, arrested in July 2008 and scheduled for execution tomorrow for "war against God". They point us to his open letter, "I Never Feared Death".

0730 GMT: EA readers point us to a video of a heated debate at a Tehran university between Mostafa Kavakebian, a reformist member of Parliament, and his counterpart Hojatoleslam Hamid Rasaee, about the rule of law in post-election Iran.

0725 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the announcement of Queen's College, Oxford University, of a graduate scholarship in Philosophy in the memory of Neda Agha Soltan.

0630 GMT: A relative lull in the post-election crisis yesterday. The Government is still caught up in the detailed debate over its economic plans and the two-front confrontation --- at home and abroad --- over its response to the Vienna uranium enrichment deal. President Ahmadinejad is abroad, the Supreme Leader is silent for the moment, and surprisingly little has been heard from the military and security forces.

But only a "relative" lull. After each major gathering since June, there have been quiet phases, and yesterday was far from quiet. Mir Hossein Mousavi followed Mohammad Khatami into the post-13 Aban pages (and, again, note that the interview is being featured by the Khomeini family, which should be treated as an ally of the opposition) with his declaration for unity and warning that the Government could not hide behind the claim of an immutable Constitution, given that it was not living up to that document. Demonstrations are occurring each day somewhere on an Iranian university campus, and word-of-mouth is spreading the message that the mass gathering for 16 Azar (7 December) is less than a month away. And all of this is happening despite much, possibly the majority, of the Green leadership in prison or abroad.

This morning the news from the regime is of more uncertainty and mis-information. Kazem Jalili of Parliament's National Security Commission is pushing the anti-deal line that enrichment must be done inside Iran, using uranium purchased abroad, rather than in a country like Russia. Fars is claiming a private hospital refused to treat injured security forces, only treating a "certain group of people and turn[ing] away all bearded individuals who had a Basiji appearance".

And Khalil Hayat Moghaddam, a member of Parliament's judicial commission, has taken the propaganda that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have split (recall the false interview with Karroubi's son) to new depths:

These two have forgotten that they made a name for themselves under the banner of the Revolution, Leadership and martyrs...,as the tears of the mothers of the martyrs and the blood of the martyrs are what protect the establishment and the Leadership [from harm]. Mousavi and Karroubi's story brings to mind the tale of those people who were fighting over imaginary spoils of war; they have forgotten that they will not be able to inflict harm on the establishment and the Revolution. The harsh stance adopted by Hassan Karroubi against Mir Mousavi Mousavi clearly shows that disagreements are increasing between the supporters of the two political figures, and it will come to spelling each other's end. (English summary at Tehran Bureau)