The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

NEW Latest Iran Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “The Stone Victory” over the Basiji on 13 Aban
Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)
Iran: Green Message to Obama “Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad”
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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2035 GMT: An advance copy of Michael Slackman's article on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, published in Sunday's New York Times, is on-line.

2030 GMT: An Iranian activist is offering a running summary of the Government's crackdown on students through arrests and detentions as well as disciplinary action by Universities.

1840 GMT: A Mousavi Trial? Mohammad Nabi Habibi, Secretary-General of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, has demanded that Mir Hossein Mousavi be prosecuted for claiming that the Presidential election was rigged, "I believe both Mousavi and all those who propagated this big lie must face trial in a court of law."

1810 GMT: We've posted the video and Engish text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh (see 1550 GMT for summary).

1600 GMT: Magically Appearing Crowd. We opened this morning (0745 GMT) with photographic confirmation of the disappointing crowd at President Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz. Kayhan, the firmly pro-Government newspaper, has published pictures, but suddenly the empty bleachers are filled with people.

No one around here is saying Photoshop. Really.

1550 GMT: 1st summary of Mousavi Interview....

People should know what the government has done with $200 billion of oil revenues in the last two years. The Majlis [Parliament] should be criticized for not controlling and overseeing Government expenditures. It is not possible to have consumer prices based on international market prices and wages based on national standards and remove subsidies.

The scope of deployment of forces on the streets on #13Aban was unprecedented. When I walked out of my office on 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] and saw the number of forces deployed, I thought this in itself is a victory for the Green movement. [Mousavi was under effective detention throughout the day, surrounded in his offices by pro-Government activists.]

1520 GMT: Copies of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh are now circulating. We'll have a summary within an hour.

1210 GMT: Today's Media Nonsense. David Frum, the Bush speechwriter who claims to have given the world the phrase "Axis of Evil", wields an aggressive pen in Canada's National Post over "Tehran's Last Chance".

Frum begins by misunderstanding the dynamics of the current negotiations over uranium enrichment. That's OK, his forte is words rather than any comprehension of politics. But then he goes overboard with his Sketch of Doom: The Iranians could not make their message clearer if they had sent a crayoned letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency: 'We're building a bomb--and you don't dare stop us. Boom boom, suckers.'"

And the solution? Just a few missiles from Tel Aviv: "Once again --- as with the Israeli strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981, and the Israeli strike at Syria's nuclear reactor in 2007 --- the peace of the region and possibly the world will depend on Israeli strength and courage."

0940 GMT: A Bit More on the Iran-Turkey "Big Push". Yesterday we paid a great deal of attention to the Turkish Foreign Minister's visit to President Ahmadinejad in Tabriz, linking it to Tehran's counter-proposal for an uranium enrichment agreement. Mr Smith noted the pay-off of the Nabucco gas pipeline deal, which would link Turkey and Iran in one of the biggest projects of the 21st century.

Today's Press TV story: "More support for Iran to join Nabucco"

0930 GMT: Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, pushing for the deal that will shore up his legitimacy, followed up his Thursday address in Tabriz with a nationally-televised speech on Friday night. He embraced more talks with the "West" while contining the theme of negotiating from strength:

Today, the only tool in the hands of [our] enemies is to wage a psychological war and raise the hue and cry; but they know well that threats will have no impact on the Iranian nation....The resistance of the Iranian nation has repelled threats against Tehran.

The Iranian nation welcomes talks and interaction and presses any hand extended for cooperation. But if its dignity and rights are not respected, the nation will not give up its rights.

0900 GMT: A well-placed EA source gives us an exclusive:

This week is the Week of Basij [militia]. What is interesting is that General Naqdi, the new Basij commender, and his companions went to Imam Khomeini's shrine, but Seyed Hassan Khomeini [the Imam's grandson] did not show up to welcome them.

Seyyed Hassan did not welcome Ahmadinejad, his Cabinet, or the head of police, but when Hashemi Rafsanjani visited the Shrine he warmly greeted him. This is could be why Ayatollah Khamenei invited Seyyed Hassan to see him on Thursday "to give him some advice".

0815 GMT: Former Minister of Culture Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, who was dismissed by the President in the controversy over the choice of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has criticised Ahmadinejad in Ayande News. He claims that the President is arrogant, too easily trusts people such as Mashai, and does not accept advice.

0810 GMT: More Rumblings from Parliament. Ahmad Tavakoli, the high-profile member of Parliament and ally of the Larijanis, has declared that Ahmadinejad’s demands from the Parliament are illegal. He warned that if those demands were accepted, this would lead to the closure of a Parliament which was failing to function.

0755 GMT: Salaam News has a lengthy interview with Hossein Marashi, who is close to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. What is interesting, beyond the clear disappointment with the Iranian system accompanied by the declaration that Rafsanjani "more than anyone else" is loyal to that system and its leadership, is Marashi's attention to the "reformists" and the Green Wave. While emphasizing that "public anger is serious", he is equally emphatic about the need for "communities of leadership" for the movement.

(Note: given what I think is a significant interview and our attention to the development and future of the opposition, I would be grateful for any comments and further translation of key sentences of this article.)

0745 GMT: Catching up with bits and pieces. An EA reader finally gave us the visuals we wanted on the crowd for Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz.

Picture 1 is from the Presidential campaign; pictures 2 and  3 are from Thursday.

Comments

[Samuel]

Barry,

First the article lies about Montazeri's role in the past which is important because his whole claim to relevance now is based on his past.

I think you are creating a simplistic caricature of Velayat-e Faqih in order to attack it. The Iran of Khomeini or Khamenei is not a Stalinist dictatorship. Even the Stalinist dictatorship was not a development in line with Leninist or Trotskyist ideology.

In Iran the SL is the ultimate authority on many issues but he is not a day to day leader and in fact during long periods of times the SL steps back and performs a more ceremonial role. The role of the SL varies depending whether the nation is in crisis, at war, at peace etc. In Iran there are many levels of power and government, parliament, the presidency, the clergy in Qom, the lower clergy which is more populist, the armed forces, the merchants in the bazaar, the pasdaran and Basij, etc. In fact even the formal structure has changed dramatically over time. Note that Mousavi was Prime Minister with considerable power but today the office of Prime Minister does not even exist.

Notice also that the current SL was president during the Iran Iraq war but that office of the presidency was not at all like the office occupied by AN today.

[Barry]

Samual

I think then that you are admitting that change has occurred in Iran over time - logically, then (at least) if it has happened in the past then it may happen in the future. Assuming then that change will occur/continue - what are your thoughts as to what changes may occur?

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

To add to what I just wrote. If the SL was the total dictator the greens believe he is then why would the name of the president, AN or Mousavi, be so important?

The reason is because the Greens don't even really believe their own words. The Presidency is important, it is an important center of power but with limitations regardless of the identity of the President. AN for example could not get his father in law as a VP because the SL oppossed him on that. The SL named Naqdi (AN EXCELLENT CHOICE) as head of the Basij even though Naqdi is not one of AN's favorite people because he once accussed an AN supporter of corruption and AN dismissed him (Naqdi).

[Samuel]

Barry,

Of course change is ocurring in Iran even as we speak. In order to understand the direction of such change I believe it is important to look first at the broader world context.

First of all Islam and what some might call "political Islam" is ascendant in many parts of the world. Let's look at the latest studies that show more muslims worldwide than was previously thought, perhaps as many as 1.5 Billion. Almost everywhere one looks Islam is more relevant today than it was in 1979 and certainly the Iranian Islamic revolution must receive at least part of the credit.

Whether one looks at the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, political parties in Indonesia and Malaysia, Afghanistan, Africa, the Caucasus, it is clear that Islam is doing very well. Three more specific examples: The militantly secular govt of Saddam in Iraq has been destroyed and replaced by a Shiite majority heavily influenced by the Iranian example. In fact the current head of the Basij, Naqdi, is an Iranian born and raised in Iraq and a former member of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq; the nation of Turkey, created out of the ashes of the Ottoman empire by a westernizing secularist, ATATURK, is now ruled by a party with Islamic roots; finally Syria another militant Baathist, secularist regime has made its peace with Islam and today it is Iran's closest ally in the Arab world. Turkey by the way has also grown much closer to Iran recently.

In europe one finds growing muslim populations with different degrees of assimilation. The battle over the Hijab in France and Tariq Ramadam's "European Islam" project deserve closer attention. Tariq's blend of faith, reason and intellect make him a formidable character.

To be sure not all of the developments I've touched on above are to my liking. The development of Al Queda type terrorrism and the spread of Wahabbi ideologies with their anti-Shiite bigotry is not something that I welcome and Iran among others has suffered from such viruses as recently as the attack on the Pasdaran which killed many high ranking officers.

What does this have to do with Iran? Well it does mean that the supporters of the Islamic Revolution know that they are part of a historical tide in favor of Islam. In one of the ironies of history the American Imperialists destroyed Iran's bitter enemy Saddam and delivered that country to its Shiite majority. Iran's regional position is now stronger in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (where Hezbollah is now in the govt) than it ever was under Imam Khomeini. Today Shiite rebels (albeit of another branch) are fighting in Yemen inspired by the example of Iran and Hezbollah. And just wait until Moqtada Sadr (of the great Shiite Sadr family in Iraq) returns to Iraq from his studies in Qom as an Ayatollah. I assure you he is not studying with the traitor Montazeri.

With this background I will focus on changes in Iran proper shortly.

[Megan]

Sound the sirens, smelly rapists and killers on the loose in Azadi Square. People of Tehran please hide your young sons and daughters.

Imagine, 100, 000 fat and smelly, bearded skunks in one place. How nauseating!!!
Imagine the air pollution in Azadi Square. Is the regime now planning to suffocate people of Tehran with noxious fume sprayed by 100,000 skunks in one place? Let’s hope they get excited and spray each other to death.

[Megan]

Somebody,

I second that motion.

[Megan]

Barry,

You are a thoughtful and rational person. I do appreciate your views and comments. But I would like to ask you a favor. Please stop feeding the mule. The mule will never become rational no matter how much you feed him rationale.

[Barry]

Samuel

"What does this have to do with Iran? Well it does mean that the supporters of the Islamic Revolution know that they are part of a historical tide in favor of Islam."

You have confirmed something that I believe to my depth of my soul.

That ALL religion, be it Christianity, Judaism, Islamism, etc is the greatest evil to fall upon mankind. The NEED for religion and gods seems to be inherent in all mankind. Unfortunately evil is also inherent in mankind - a fact recognized by most religions, but they do not recognize that they are in fact a part of that evil.

The fact that people (like you) are still savoring the thought of "their" religion conquering the world fills me with dread.

What hope does humankind have of advancing into the future - when you cling to these beliefs - - and I am certain that you are Muslim only by accident of your birthplace. Perhaps some other accident of history may have seen you born in some other place and you would be equally fanatical about the religion of that place

I have no need for gods, saviors or prophets - but you obviously and unfortunately have yet to even think about these things. If you did think about them - and you have any degree of independence in your thinking, I do not believe that you could sustain your current beliefs. Nobody can!

Barry

[Barry]

Megan

"The mule will never become rational no matter how much you feed him rationale."

There is another saying : " You can't teach pigs to sing. They will never learn to sing - and all you will achieve is to annoy the pigs"

But somebody much smarter than me said once: " Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer"

I don't know if Samuel is irrational - I do know that he is a fanatical unthinking supporter of a deadly Regime. He is not the first such person in the world. Nazi Germany had many such persons. They could not see the error of their thinking - their racist beliefs - their desire for world "superiority" -and they died fighting for their beliefs.

It does no harm to ask Samuel to detail his thoughts and beliefs - it only exposes these things to the harsh light of day and scrutiny. It is probable that he will not change these beliefs - so we either have to live with them or ****! The western world was forced to do the latter to the Nazis - and I fear it will come down to this again in the future - especially if there are many more similar to him, yearning for racial and religious superiority over the rest of the world.

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

Given Iran's increasingly strong regional position and the ascendancy of Islam in many regions of the world the notion that the Islamic Revolution will fold like East Germany or the Ukraine or the Shah and the SL will go live in a cave somewhere is the stuff of fantasies in naive Green minds. No those who want to overthrow the Islamic Revolution will have to fight the Revolution to the death the way Mao fought Chiang Kai Shek and the Kuomingtan.

For obvious reasons I don't think the Greens will and if they did this fellow would make sure they lose. http://english.khamenei.ir//components/com_mhasgallery/img_pictures/originals/20080526_1439601590_17.jpg

Iran will clearly change economically. Expect the country to follow a Chinese path: less subsidies, less regulation, more privatization. Of course the Pasdaran will be accused of eating up more sectors of the economy but their industries will have to perform to compete in the global economy.

In the political arena I expect and support a cultural Revolution led by the Basij, a "long march" if you will through all of the institutions of Iranian society. You already see this with the recent announcement that the Basij will begin opening chapters in the lower grades of the educational system. Let's be blunt, just like the original long march this will not take a week and a half, and those planning to overthrow the revolution will suffer consequences similar to those who opposed Khomeini in 1979 and later.

"The longer question is – what will replace it?? Most likely military dictatorship I believe – but who will be the military Dictator??"

The answer then is that Iran will be a more mobilized, more active revolutionary state more similar to the early stages of the revolution but it will not be a "military dictatorship". One has to realize that the current attempt to overthow the system, what many call a "Velvet Revolution" was clearly foreseen by the the strategic think tank of the Pasdaran years ago, then headed by Gen. Jafari. He argued strenously that measures had to be undertaken to turn the focus inward to protect the Revolution, that the neglected Basij had to be reactivated and reenergized to play the leading role it had during the war years. Eventually his views came to the fore and he was named head of the Pasdaran in 2007. From that day the Pasdaran and the Basij were completely reorganized, a process that continues to this day with many different officers replaced.

If the Guards and the Basij are so prominent today it is because they (Jafari in particular) saw the future most clearly and took the necessary steps to meet the new challenges. Jafari and Naqdi will certainly remain highly influential members of the Iranian leadership and Jafari, like another former head of the Pasdaran, may one day put aside his uniform and run for President. This however does not mean a military dictatorship where the clergy is pushed aside. Observers make that mistake because they see SOME senior clerics in Qom making anti-Govt statements.

The fact is that there is a split in the clergy. Many of those clerics whining today never even supported Khomeini and the Guardianship of the Jurist in the first place. They were just like that piece of clerical waste in Najaf, Sistani, and his mentor Grand Ayatollah Abu al-Qasim al-Khoei, fierce opponents of Khomeini and all that he stood for. Today many of the younger, less senior clerics, are militant supporters of the Revolution and the legacy of Imam Khomeini. A future SL will emerge from this younger sector.

It is important to understand that the power of a future SL will not be exactly the same as the power and authority of Khamenei and Khomeini. In fact Khamenei for various reasons does not have the same authority of the Father of the Revolution. The point is not that the next, younger SL will be an exact replica of Khomeini and Khamenei, two extraordinary historical world figures. Were all the Shiite Imams the same with regards to their authority? How about all the Caliphs? What about the Pope? Was John Paul II not more influential than Pope Benedict? Is Raul Castro the equivalent of his charismatic older Brother? Have the Vietnamese ever found a leader to match Ho Chi Minh?

Look at other ideological revolutions like the Chinese and the Soviet examples. They never became military dictatorships (even though force or the threat of force were important governmental components) because the source of their ideology, communism, was not a military establishment but an intellectual, revolutionary, civilian sector.

[Barry]

Samuel

Thank you for that - there is a lot here to mull over. I am sure others will also appreciate your frankness - perhaps it could also be widely published elsewhere?

Barry

[Samuel]

Hi Megan,

"Imagine, 100, 000 fat and smelly, bearded skunks in one place. How nauseating!!!"

Fat??? These lads don't look at all fat or smelly for that matter. Thank you once again for sharing your fantasies although I kind of miss the blood and gore in some of your previous posts.

http://english.khamenei.ir//components/com_mhasgallery/img_pictures/originals/20080526_1714575134_9.jpg

[pessimist]

@somebody & Megan

I haven't been able to read this whole page, but I don't agree with Somebody. Samuel is not a troll, he is a useful idiot, which is not an insult. He provides for non iranians, and uninformed folks like me (for example), information about the 'real side of life' according to him. Without Samuel, we don't always see this on such forums. I NEED SAMUEL, ok ? pige ? get it ? Let him say his stuff, I need to read it to know what's behind this regime. He is not like Press TV, I don't know who he is, but he provides things that I need to know to understand the other side. He is not always wrong either.

[shangool]

Barry

"No – that part of Iran’s history is definitely coming to an end. The longer question is – what will replace it?? Most likely military dictatorship I believe – but who will be the military Dictator??"

Iran is a military dictatorship masked with the face of theocracy. SL gives IRGC legitimacy, and they in return keep him in power. IRGC are the dictators.

Samuel

seriously, smoke less of whatever it is that you`re smoking. It makes you delusional.

[Barry]

Pessemist

I agree with you - very valuable insights indeed.

Samuel

These "lads" ( very British word??) are just children -- when Nazi Germany was on it's last legs, it also used children to attempt anything to defend the Regime http://scriptamus.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/german-child-war-prisoners.jpg These ones are prisoners - they don't seem to be enjoying themselves as much as those in your picture

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

Seriously your comparison to Nazi Germany is way off the mark. Nazism was a racist movement; if you were not the right color or ethnic group you were deemed inferior and expendable. Islam is the most anti racist faith there is. There are white muslims, brown muslims, black muslims, asian muslims, blonde muslims etc. Indonesia is the largest Muslim nation in the world and they are all asians.

The faith is so inclusive that it long ago ceased being controlled or dominated by the first ethnic group to embrace it--the Arabs. At different times leadership has been in the hands of Turks, Persians, Indians, Mongols and on and on. In Iran individuals have commented on Rafsanjani having Mongol feautures which accounts for his lack of facial hair. The man just can't grow a proper beard. http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/wp-content/uploads/Volume9/9-9/Rafsanjani.jpg

Did you know that Khamenei is half Azeri and half Persian? By the way when was the last time the Catholic Church had a non-white, non-European Pope?

[Hossein]

Keyhan and co. only lie. Their tactics does invoke the same type of abuse by the Nazis.

[shangool]

Sammy Boy

it hurts me to say it, but I agree with your post 41. Barry`s comparison is weak.
the Israeli government and their actions are more comparable to Nazi Germany(please don`t wet your pants) Islam is a beautiful faith, but SL, AN and Jafari, even khomeini, they have perverted the faith of Islam. there is no excuse for their actions: rape, torture and murder.

regardleses, they will soon perish.

[Barry]

Hi Samuel

I am learning all the time about Islam.

So then, it is OK to be Christian or Bahai in Iran? And with freedom of religion comes the ability to lose faith in a religion and choose another?

Where I live, all that above is OK and accepted. In Iran- as a non-believer, is there room for me - to have freedom from religion?? or would I have to go to Room 101?

Barry

[Catherine]

@ Barry and Samuel re the future changes in the governing system of Iran

The process has already started:
Regime Seeks to Appoint New “Grand Ayatollahs”
Following the escalation of protests by Iran’s senior ayatollahs against the regime, some members of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association ... are planning to present a new list of “grand ayatollahs” under the supervision of Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi.
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2009/november/20//regime-seeks-to-appoint-new-grand-ayatollahs.html

[Megan]

Pessimist,

“Real side of life”? Really? Real Side of Lie is more like it and that is all you get from him and others like him that are in their 8th century cocoon.

I do not need to listen to a mouthpiece of criminal and fascist government to get the real side of life in Iran? He gets paid by that fascist regime to do their deeds, spreading lies and stupidity.

You want to see the real side of life in Iran how about these realties? Sixteen people were hanged in the last two weeks some for minor felony offenses, scores of students have been dragged out of their homes and put in jail prior to a potential 16 of Azar (Dec 7) protest, Saghez is under siege by his thug brothers (the ones he brags about) as if this drug cartel government has not killed enough Kurds in the past thirty years. These are the real sides of life in Iran. Do you want to hear more about the real side of life in Iran? How about not having enough to eat even though your homeland is among the richest in natural resources? Or how about you work your butt off in a government-owned factory and you do not get paid wages for months and if you demand to be paid you will be arrested and jailed? Or how about even if you are a good boy or good girl and you obey the tyrant like sheep you will die of minor illness or infection and if you are lucky to pass age 30 you will die of heart disease or cancer before you reach age 50. These and more are the realities of life in Iran not the nonsense he puts up.

I do not know if you are an Iranian who has never lived in Iran or you are a non-Iranian. Whichever the case may be I hope if you really want to know about Iranians and life in Iran you find a better source and there are plenty.

[Barry]

Hi Megan

I understand - and I am sorry to offend you. For you, I think this situation is life and death. For me (and maybe Pessimist?) , fortunately, it is not.

I (and perhaps Pessimist) have been playing with Samuel. I know who he is and what he is. He has always existed. He has always had to be fought. He has always ultimately been defeated.

Megan - in time, you will win this part of the battle - which has been going on since time (as we humans know it ) began.

Barry

[Megan]

Shangool,

“Islam is a beautiful faith”

That is news to me. What is so beautiful about it? The fact that it is misogynist? Or the fact that it is bigoted? Sorry to see you falling into the Sa mule well where the # 12 is hiding.

I am with Barry on this. The heck with all religions. More people have been killed in the name of God and religion that any other causes in human history. God and evil are in every one of us. Those who do good will see the reward, that inner peace, and those who let the evil in them take over get their punishment in this life. The rest are stories charlatans weave and feed feeble minds.

[Somebody]

@ pessimist

Fair enough. I didn't realize his viewpoints were useful to anyone. I usually just skip right through them. I just thought debating him might become a distraction from more important topics.

[shangool]

Megan

I don`t blame Islam for what SL is doing. you`re right in suggesting that religion has been used to promote evil throughout history, I don`t argue against that.
If it was up to me, Iranians would still be Zorostrians.

nways.. over to something else.. it seems the coup is entering a new stage. if the rumours about the grand ayatollahs are true. that means IRGC are trying completely to obliterate the opposition by attacking religious authorities. What will be next then? arresting Mousavi and Karoubi? Two weeks till 7th of december. guess we`ll have to wait till then.