Friday
Nov062009
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Friday, November 6, 2009 at 9:55
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After
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I had to wait two days to write this because I honestly did not know what was most important about the 4 November protests. There was so much to absorb that, at one point, I had to take a cold shower for distraction. But 48 hours is enough time to figure out what I believe might be the best explanations or speculations about the events that transpired.
The most important outcome, in my opinion, was that not a single life was lost. This is the first time since 12 June that a major protest day passed without the death of a protester. This could mean two things. Either the security forces misfired and failed to kill anyone or they were ordered not to kill (of course there’s a slight glimmer of hope that they might have defied orders to kill, but I’d say that would be a bit too optimistic).
The more plausible explanation is that there was a firm line as to how far security forces could. There were thousands of protesters and there were thousands of security forces, and the clashes were violent. Tear gas was fired indiscriminately. But no one shot at demonstrators.
If this is true, then the government has really gambled with its chances of staying in power. If there is no fear of death among the marchers, they could turn out in even larger numbers the next time.
The second most important issue was Mehdi Karroubi’s presence. You’d think that the government would stop this guy from attending these protests and galvanizing the masses. But it didn’t, and he showed up. Not only did he show up, but he was also attacked, adding a little more to his charisma.
At a time when dozens of politicians are in jail or on trial, and Mir Hossein Mousavi is under effective house arrest, the appearance of a high-profile leader at a rally can mean only one thing: unlike the case with other opposition figures, the Government’s hands are tied when it comes to Karroubi. The tear-gas attack on Karroubi's vehicle seemed more like a frustrated establishment attempting to deter him, precisely because it could not take more aggressive action. Probably because the regime is divided over what to do with him, Karroubi is not detained or shut up in his house. Instead, he parades around like a Jedi Master whenever he wants to.
Then there came the moment when the videos of masses screaming denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Hossein Khamenei surfaced. Fear of directly accusing Khamenei of being a tyrant is no more. As it is said in Pashto, “Every clay pot breaks some day.”
And the people didn’t just stop at denouncing him. They tore down his picture from the billboard, they threw it on the ground, and they stomped over it jubilantly with the grace of ballerinas.
It’s on. And it’s no longer about people’s votes being stolen by Ahmadinejad or the Guardian Council. It is also about Khamenei’s reign of terror, as the masses made it clear that he was one of their list. The immunity he has enjoyed over the past five months vanished within seconds. To the demonstrators, he is now just another violator of basic human rights.
And as a bonus, for the first time (seems like so many first times occurred on 13 Aban), Government-run or Government-censored media were finally able to speak at least some of what is on their minds. Press TV’s article that described the protesters coming out in thousands might have appeared in error. But it sure showed which side the writers of the article were supporting.
Parleman News, a website that acts as an outlet for some parliamentarians, featured an article about both the pro-Government and the Green protests, but while the introduction was about the former, the was more about the latter. The next article juxtaposed praise for Khamenei’s recent remarks with pictures of the people who had desecrated the Leader’s image.
Yes, 13 Aban is over. Most protesters are home. Some are in jail. Some are groaning in pain from their wounds. Others are likely hiding. But their courage has likely changed the game.
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
I had to wait two days to write this because I honestly did not know what was most important about the 4 November protests. There was so much to absorb that, at one point, I had to take a cold shower for distraction. But 48 hours is enough time to figure out what I believe might be the best explanations or speculations about the events that transpired.The most important outcome, in my opinion, was that not a single life was lost. This is the first time since 12 June that a major protest day passed without the death of a protester. This could mean two things. Either the security forces misfired and failed to kill anyone or they were ordered not to kill (of course there’s a slight glimmer of hope that they might have defied orders to kill, but I’d say that would be a bit too optimistic).
The more plausible explanation is that there was a firm line as to how far security forces could. There were thousands of protesters and there were thousands of security forces, and the clashes were violent. Tear gas was fired indiscriminately. But no one shot at demonstrators.
If this is true, then the government has really gambled with its chances of staying in power. If there is no fear of death among the marchers, they could turn out in even larger numbers the next time.
The second most important issue was Mehdi Karroubi’s presence. You’d think that the government would stop this guy from attending these protests and galvanizing the masses. But it didn’t, and he showed up. Not only did he show up, but he was also attacked, adding a little more to his charisma.
At a time when dozens of politicians are in jail or on trial, and Mir Hossein Mousavi is under effective house arrest, the appearance of a high-profile leader at a rally can mean only one thing: unlike the case with other opposition figures, the Government’s hands are tied when it comes to Karroubi. The tear-gas attack on Karroubi's vehicle seemed more like a frustrated establishment attempting to deter him, precisely because it could not take more aggressive action. Probably because the regime is divided over what to do with him, Karroubi is not detained or shut up in his house. Instead, he parades around like a Jedi Master whenever he wants to.
Then there came the moment when the videos of masses screaming denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Hossein Khamenei surfaced. Fear of directly accusing Khamenei of being a tyrant is no more. As it is said in Pashto, “Every clay pot breaks some day.”
And the people didn’t just stop at denouncing him. They tore down his picture from the billboard, they threw it on the ground, and they stomped over it jubilantly with the grace of ballerinas.
It’s on. And it’s no longer about people’s votes being stolen by Ahmadinejad or the Guardian Council. It is also about Khamenei’s reign of terror, as the masses made it clear that he was one of their list. The immunity he has enjoyed over the past five months vanished within seconds. To the demonstrators, he is now just another violator of basic human rights.
And as a bonus, for the first time (seems like so many first times occurred on 13 Aban), Government-run or Government-censored media were finally able to speak at least some of what is on their minds. Press TV’s article that described the protesters coming out in thousands might have appeared in error. But it sure showed which side the writers of the article were supporting.
Parleman News, a website that acts as an outlet for some parliamentarians, featured an article about both the pro-Government and the Green protests, but while the introduction was about the former, the was more about the latter. The next article juxtaposed praise for Khamenei’s recent remarks with pictures of the people who had desecrated the Leader’s image.
Yes, 13 Aban is over. Most protesters are home. Some are in jail. Some are groaning in pain from their wounds. Others are likely hiding. But their courage has likely changed the game.
Reader Comments (17)
Thanks Josh,
Great analysis :)
Magnificent analysis; you have to send it to all the media in the world, it takes only few minutes; thank you
There are a lot of articles and videos, in french press , and insistently about iranian opposition ; for once it's the "truth" , what had happened last wednesday
http://www.wikio.fr/international/asie/iran
Josh,
Journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin offers quite a different evaluation of 13 Aban in his interview with DW Persian, stressing the violence against protesters (in difference to Quds day): http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4864437,00.html
Even more alarming are the widening gap between the regime and people and its missing political reactions to their political demands. Governemental authority is fastly crumbling down, leaving a political vacuum, which none of the existing factions is able to fill. As Ayatollah Montazeri before this reformist warns the regime about civil commotions and demands national reconciliation.
dear josh,
i fully agree with your analysis. but one important thing should be added, i think. on 13th aban we saw much more videos of other cities. appearantly citizen journalism outside iran has become more effective and/or people in those cities are (with universities open) more active in protest methods. in my opinion, this is a very important WIN for the green movement.
videos of young being beaten will enrage people as the scenery of people stamping on khamenei's pic will encourage them to leave this taboo behind.
all in all - thank you. most reports i've read seem to go along with your analysis.
Dear Josh, thank you for this analysis. In my opinion you are making mistake at one point. But I maybe got you wrong!
You wrote:
"Fear of directly accusing Khamenei of being a tyrant is no more. " and "It’s on. And it’s no longer about people’s votes being stolen by Ahmadinejad or the Guardian Council. It is also about Khamenei’s reign of terror, as the masses made it clear that he was one of their list. The immunity he has enjoyed over the past five months vanished within seconds. To the demonstrators, he is now just another violator of basic human rights."
As far as I remember chants against Khamenei have always been the case since at least that day where people commemorated Neda's, Sohrab's and other martyr's death and demonstarted afterwards. Specifically the chant KHAMENEI GHATELE, VELAAYATESH BAATELE (Khamenei is a murderer and his rule is nill and void) was heared in many demonstartions in the past 5 months. And what about the green paintings on his billboard pictures? As far as I can judge there never was a immunity for the SL during this 5 months.
Jashar
Thank you, Josh, for this good news. I guess it would be a mistake to assume a corner is being turned, but it is hopeful. The best news, to me, after the lack of fatalities, is that the Green movement is spreading throughout the country. More people *believe* that freedom is possible and that is what will make it happen, in the end.
People have written about the possible consequence of the Protest in terms of its success and impact. I want to know more about how the Green movement itself is adapting/changing from protest to protest. Have there been any significant tactical/organizational changes to the movement itself. I heard recently that someone was releasing periodic "anti-regime" lectures similar in veign to the "Khomeini tapes" that are growing in popularity. Is a type of underground leadership developing? Perhaps the more spontaneous the Movement remains the harder it is to control by the regime.
Great Analysis Guys
Barzakh
http://tqa81.wordpress.com/
Josh, there may be a completely different explanation for no protesters being killed on Wednesday.
According to the letter from a Basij member to Khamenei (see below), each government supporter was offered $250 for each arrest. That would explain why there was so much more violent attacks on the protesters but no shootings.
I would think even under IRI incentive system, the body of a dead protester brought in by the basijis causes too much hassle and paper work...whereas a live arrestee is worth $250 which I believe is more than an average Iranian's monthly income.
Sorry, here's the story. Maybe you can help confirm it.
http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/067987.htm
Thank you Shahriar. Loved your analysis. Keep up the good work! Ma Bishomarim!
I too am struck by the claim that "for the first time..., Government-run or Government-censored media were finally able to speak at least some of what is on their minds." That's just silly. Or are you suggesting that for the first time they started saying what you wanted them to say? There's been intense criticism of the system since the elections and before -- it's come and gone, it's been suppressed at one moment then opened wide the next. Take the intense "debate" going on about the IAEA deal -- the one reformist sources are gleefully criticizing for it's potential harm to Iran's interests....
In my opinion Shahryar misses a few important points: First and foremost, this wasn't the first time that no one was killed. On the Qods Day demonstrations, there wasn't even tear gas or beatings. This time around the security forces were actually very harsh compared to the Qods Day.
Second, Mousavi was reportedly held captive in his office, not his house, making it difficult to portray as house arrest. Why Karoubi can but Mousavi can't (or probably doesn't want to for political reasons) show up in such events is a bigger mystery than what the author offers.
Third, it definitely wasn't the first time that protesters denounced Khamenei. We have all seen the videos. This has been a constant theme since 18 Tir.
Finally, it wasn't the first time Parleman News could publish something in favor of the demonstrators. They constantly do that. The website belongs to the reformist minority faction in the parliament.
It's true that Qods Day had less violence than 13 Aban, but on Qods Day the Regime had told people it was permitted to demonstrate as long as they kept to the approved theme of the day. This time, warnings were clear that people should not go out on the streets, and that massive security forces, including "3 million Basiji" would brutally put down any demonstrations. The morning of 13 Aban, the first reports said there was heavy police presence on every intersection leading to the demonstration, a frightening and intimidating show of force. But people went anyway.
That's what we call a showdown, the Regime saying people MUST NOT go out, and people saying they WILL go out no matter what. Given the Regime's history of willingness to simply execute tens of thousands of people on Khamenei's order, I feared we were about to witness a massacre, especially when reports came in that everyone was covered with blood. Even then, people continued to join the demonstration, barehanded, defenseless, and peaceful. I wondered how many of those incredibly brave people would make it home alive.
Later we learned that people had been sprayed with identifying dye for later arrest, a common tactic in bank robberies in the United States, and that it had been dye rather than blood that people saw all over each other. The bullets were plastic. Not everyone made it home from the demonstration, and many were brutally injured with excessive, barbaric violence, but no one was killed. The Regime was bluffing when it said it was sending 3 million Basiji to slaughter everyone, and the people ended up not only alive but tearing down Khamenei's picture! The people did not quit, and the demonstration ended when THEY wanted, on THEIR terms.
I think this is very significant because it shows that Khamenei is not willing to go down in history as someone who mowed down thousands of peaceful demonstrators, despite his zeal to execute people after show trials. There is a limit to his depravity. This is very good news because previously no one knew how low Khamenei was willing to go, and it was perfectly plausible that he would simply eliminate all those who opposed him, by the millions if necessary, in cold blood in the street.
Even if the allegations are true that Basiji were paid for live arrestees rather than dead bodies, that would still mean Khamenei did not order them to kill, and in fact apparently went out of his way to put up an incentive to make sure people understood he actually did not want people to be killed, he wasn't just saying so and then winking to the side to say killing would in reality be tolerated. It tells you something about the state of affairs on Khamenei's side if he has to bribe his thugs to follow his orders!
All in all, a very successful day for Free Iranians!
A possible answer to Ehsan Akhbari: on the mystery why Mousavi never goes to the protests, while Karoubi does. It is indeed a mystery, and I see two very different explanations:
1. Mousavi is not as courageous as Karoubi, he prefers to stay at home, or is not clever enough to break through the government agents guarding his house.
2. It is a deliberate strategy of the government to discredit the green leadership and cause divisions: they frustrate all action by Mousavi, the senior partner in the leadership, while allowing junior partner Karoubi to catch the shine by allowing him some more freedom of movement.
It is not clear to me what Ehsan Akhbari meant above by 'political reasons': why would the two plan a course of action that makes Mousavi look like a weak and inactive leader?
In my opinion, The people are becoming angry; and the government is divided and frightened. Security forces were out in massive numbers; and were kept constantly on the move. Protestors are beginning to fight back and use smarter tactics. The prisons are filling up; and the regime cannot arrest everybody; so the government was working hard to disperse & scare the protestors. Sadly, it seems the only “leader” of the green movement who was able to join the protest was mehdi karoubi.
We think the most important accomplishment on November 4 was that the protestors were able to effectively communicate their message to the outside media and to the regime. In addition, Ayatollah Montazeri also issued a sort of apology about the hostage crisis in Iran in 1979.
Although individual protests were smaller than before, it would be safe to say that there were thousands of people at many different locations all over Iran. It is hard to judge real numbers because of the media blackout. My feeling is they were larger than it appears on the surface. In addition, we also observed many citizens standing around watching and providing passive support.
The funniest story we heard about 13 Aban is a photo posted on Tehran Bureau’s website. “Regime supporters apparently accidentally set ablaze a flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the semi-official Mehr News Agency posted it on its site.” Another interesting incident was that the Islamic Republic News agency’s website went offline because the regime cut off internet, cell phones, & sms. So; they managed to sensor themselves. The first two good decisions they have made in 30 years.
In all seriousness, The movement is growing quickly! The people are tired of this government. The harder this regime strikes; the stronger we become. The more they squeeze; the sooner Iran will slip from their grasp. We will achieve democracy. We will have freedom, justice, and the rule of law. We will respect human rights in Iran.
Commentary:
The leaders of the green movement must seriously consider their strategies & tactics. A non-violent resistance effort without critical mass may end up killing more people than targeted civil disobedience. It is our strong opinion that sending people out to protest in small numbers is no different than sending children to walk on landmines during the Iran/Iraq war.
We must stop this foreign interference; no matter if it is USA/UK, or China/Russia. We must rethink our strategies & tactics if we are going to win this fight for democracy.
Montazeri, karoubi, Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Khatami all need to use their wealth or influence to finance an effective resistance instead of playing a cat & mouse game with the other faction. Sadly, it seems they are the mice. Are they trying to reform the system? Or are they just wasting time?
Personally, the only two leaders I trust is Montazeri, who is in his 90s, and karoubi; who seems to be a rising star. The poor guy keeps getting beaten up and keeps putting his neck on the line. Somebody needs to have a serious conversation with his security staff.
It seems the same political intrigues and games are being played as have been played for the last hundred years. It seems to be an alliance between those who sell out their country; and outside powers who's mouths water over Iran's prime real estate and natural resources. A proxy war seems to be going on between unseen forces. On one side, they want to stabilize Iran; and the other is trying to destabilize the country. My question is: who is thinking about Iran? Nobody really knows. It seems that On one side you have the fascist regime backed by Russia & China; and on the other side you have leftist (almost Marxist) reformers executing non-violent resistance concepts taught by western institutions; financed by covert money. Now I ask, where is this funding coming from? Such a tangled web we weave; when we practice to deceive.
The power behind the scene: Khoeiniha – TehranBureau
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/10/power-behind-the-scene-khoeiniha.html
If the greens were not tainted by outside influences, perhaps the green movement would have already reformed Iran into a true democracy. Why? Because even those beating the protestors are tired of the regime. There are those who value stability, security & territorial integrity over democracy. We argue that a well funded internal movement and a real alternative government would have the support of over 95% of the population in Iran. You can never build a movement on a foundation of lies.
Indeed Iran may be shaken to it's very foundation. But no problem: we have been dealing with invasions and political turmoil for thousands of years. It is nothing new. We will figure this out in our own way.
We need to be smart & creative. We should not rehash history and think the same steps will work for every situation. We should not look at other countries and assume what is right for them; is right for us. We must hit the regime where they are most vulnerable. Weapons, money & oil is what keeps this ruthless and fascist government in power. We should consider using targeted and surgical strikes against key government assets. We need to engage in civil disobedience against government resources & individuals.
Those protestors asking if Obama is with us or against us. My answer would be neither. The united States thinks of itself first and foremost. It does not care what happens to the people of Iran. The USA only cares about USA's own national security and economic interests. They do not run everything; and they are not all powerful. The good news is; a stable secular democratic government is what the United States wants in Iran for their own interests. Why? More petroleum, more trade, less state sponsored terrorism, and of course the nuclear issue.
Nobody is going to save us other than ourselves. Don't expect others to do our hard work and heavy lifting. In fact, that has been our problem for almost a hundred years now. We need to stop selling out to other countries. We seem to choose the easiest and laziest path. We seem to think there is nothing we can do. People say one bad government will just be replaced with another bad government; the US and UK run everything and there is nothing we can do; or that the intelligence agency in Iran is so powerful, they can see you taking a shower. I have great news: none of this is true. The world is filled with differing interests all fighting for power and influence. Nobody has a monopoly on determining the destiny of nations.
We have to carefully consider our strategies & tactics. We must consider what steps will work given the reality on the ground. For example, instead of sending people to get beaten on the streets, consider planning for two days of strikes where everybody stays home. Nobody should go to work; drive a taxi, or go to their government jobs. Another tactic may be to infiltrate the ranks of the basiji, IRGC, and other organs of the government. Send some freedom fighters deep under cover or tell those who are seeing the light to remain at their posts. If the leaders of the green movement wish to make a difference, stop following the lead of those experts who possess more data than judgment. Look at your strengths and weaknesses. Most importantly: the green movement needs military support, an alternative government, and a revised constitution.
We like the idea of hit & run protests and civil disobedience. We like the idea of not gathering at assigned places. We like it when you blend in with the crowd and confuse everything. We need to make governing Iran a waking nightmare for this evil regime. As a previous revolutionary once said: "We will dump this evil regime into the trash can of history"
We are pleased to learn that a few have begun to defend themselves and fight back. Those who have military training should organize cells to protect people. They should carry weapons at all times. The people must arm themselves and they will outnumber security forces 10 to 1. The people should make the job of being a basiji or government official the most dangerous profession in the world. When attacked: defend yourself! Disarm them, shame them, and shame their families. Keep their weapons for your own protection.
We are so proud of these soldiers of freedom. They put their lives on the line to fight for freedom, democracy, & human rights. We thank you. Our thoughts and prayers are with you. All of the freedom loving people of the world support your struggle. Stay alert and stay safe.
Jamshid
I also have one in farsi at:
http://iran115.org/13aban-analysis-persian
May god have mercy on the enemies of democracy; because we cannot until Iran is a free nation.
Long live a democratic nation of Iran
Jamshid,
Excellent analysis on the situation in Iran. I agree with you regarding US priorities. Sadly this is the truth for any state. For the US with respect to Iran the priority is security and thus the focus on the nuclear issue. It is quite sad that the US and most of the West largely ignores the plight of the people in Iran. On the flip side you also have to consider why the US is not involving itself with the protests.
The first is the aforementioned priority, nukes, but also because the Obama administration has correctly surmized to inovolve themselves directly would actually hurt the movememnt. If the West directly inovlved themselves it would give the coup leaders the "proof" of outside interference and they would become more brutal. I think the regime has not resorted to expand the scope of the crackdown our it's harshness because they realize it is primarily their people not outside forces at work. If they are to draconian they risk it blowing up in their faces. Ironically I think it's blowing up in their faces already because of the years of oppression. As you stated it must come from within!
I would only encourae you to not resort to violence. You can make an arguement for violence but in modern times the movements that ushered in true change were non violent. Look to Inida, the Soviet Union, and South Africa as prime examples of non violence working. The counter view is any number of violent seperatist movements across the globe and you always see a failed strategy. If you use violence it basically gurantees the Regime will use any method at its disposal to survive and feel justified doing so. Non violence eliminates this justification and actually works to subvert their own power base from within when its leaders then begin to question their moral right to lead.
As you mentioned civil disobedience and strikes are good tools to use. I would encourage the movement to pursue this path because it not only paralyzes the government but costs them huge amounts of money. The government might get more violent but in the long run they will have no choice to reform because simply they cannot afford not to. I wish you all the best and while our governments in the West stand on the sidelines know we are all cheering for the Green Wave!!! Free Iran!
thx
Bill